OIC: Haniyeh's Assassination Threatens to Push Middle East into Wider Conflict

OIC: Haniyeh's Assassination Threatens to Push Middle East into Wider Conflict

    Wednesday, August 07, 2024   No comments

The rotating presidency of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) confirmed on Wednesday that the "heinous assassination" of the former head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas, the martyr leader Ismail Haniyeh, "threatens to push the Middle East into a wider conflict."

The Secretary-General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Hussein Ibrahim Taha, said during the opening session of the extraordinary meeting of the Executive Committee at the level of foreign ministers of member states, to discuss the ongoing crimes of the Israeli occupation against the Palestinian people and its aggression against Iran, that "the heinous assassination only serves to escalate existing tensions that may lead to a wider conflict."

He also stressed that "the sovereignty of nation-states and the integrity of their territories are fundamental principles on which the international system is based."

Israel assassinated Haniyeh in a bombing that targeted the Iranian capital, Tehran, a few days ago, on July 31, 2024. The assassination came during a visit by Haniyeh to Tehran to participate in the inauguration ceremony of Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian. The OIC declared that the assassination of Haniyeh constituted aggression against Iran.

The OIC released a Final Statement at the conclusion of the meeitng.

"Does [a non-Western government] have the right to defend itself?"

"Does [a non-Western government] have the right to defend itself?"

    Tuesday, August 06, 2024   No comments

 

Why is so difficult for Western governments to answer the question, "Does [a non-Western government] have the right to defend itself?"

 

Is Western civilization on the verge of collapse?

Is Western civilization on the verge of collapse?

    Tuesday, August 06, 2024   No comments

Human civilization has been a topic for historians, sociologists, philosophers, thinkers, and scientists throughout history. The discussion of the rise and fall of human civilization often leads to a look back at the work of the Muslim thinker Abd al-Rahman Ibn Khaldun who is often described as the originator of the theory of cyclicality of human civilization. Although Ibn Khaldun did not take credit for such idea, and many modern researchers have concluded that that idea was not Ibn Khaldun's original idea, it is nonetheless part of his work and his contribution to the field of social history. Related to this topic, we examine and re-present ideas by a scientist from the modern time, one who used statistical data to predict social trends.

On the New Scientist website, Peter Valentinovich Turchin, a Russian-American scientist specializing in mathematical modeling and statistical analysis, presents his analysis of the decline of Western civilization and its causes by studying mathematical patterns in complex systems and applying them to history. Turchin believes that Western societies are rapidly moving toward the brink of destruction, and that they must make important decisions to avoid this collapse. Here are some of  Turchin's ideas and assertions. 

The collapse of civilizations seems to have been a natural and recurring pattern in the development of cultures throughout history, with a period of decline and weakness often following a period of prosperity. The closest examples of this are what happened to the ancient Egyptian Empire, the Roman Empire, the Mayan civilization (one of the ancient civilizations that emerged in the region of Central and South America*), and the Qing Dynasty in China, which experienced periods of prosperity followed by collapse, and this seems to be the inevitable path of any civilization.

Today, Western civilization may face the same fate, as there are clear signs of a variety of crises, including widening economic inequalities, political divisions, violent conflicts, and environmental disasters. Some observers see this as a sign of a “multiple global crises” that pose a serious, perhaps existential, threat to contemporary societies.

More than two decades ago, I predicted that this was the end of things, based on studying mathematical patterns in complex systems and applying them to history. Using this approach, I discovered that violent political upheavals follow certain time cycles, one peaking every 50 years or so, and the other peaking every two or three centuries.

In a 'Difficult' call, Netanyahu told Biden: "as Prime Minister of Israel, I act solely according to the security needs of the State of Israel"

In a 'Difficult' call, Netanyahu told Biden: "as Prime Minister of Israel, I act solely according to the security needs of the State of Israel"

    Friday, August 02, 2024   No comments

Axios reported that US President Joe Biden asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during a "difficult" phone call between them on Thursday, to stop escalating tensions in the region, following the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military commander Fouad Shukr. One US official said that Biden warned Netanyahu that if he escalated again, he should not rely on the United States to save him.

Axios quoted a senior Israeli official as saying that Biden raised his voice during the call and told Netanyahu that he wanted him to reach an agreement within a week or two.

A source familiar with the matter told the website that the US president told Netanyahu that the region is currently at a turning point and that every effort needs to be made to end the war in Gaza and achieve regional stability, even if the agreement is not ideal.

In contrast, the website quoted Netanyahu’s office as saying that the Israeli prime minister assured Biden that he is only working according to Israel’s security requirements. His office reported that "Prime Minister Netanyahu told President Biden that he appreciates the American support, and as Prime Minister of Israel he acts solely according to the security needs of the State of Israel."

Meanwhile, the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation said that great tension dominated a meeting Netanyahu held with the Israeli negotiating team on Wednesday.

The head of the Shin Bet internal security service, Ronen Bar, was quoted as saying to Netanyahu during the meeting, “We feel that you are sending us to negotiate, and then you are making changes to the outlines of the deal.”

Meanwhile, The New York Times published a dramatic editorial declaring "Netanyahu has Gone Rogue",  and explaining that by "Ignoring the condemnation of allies, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is forcing the pace of the war and feeding the revolt of the far right."

Media review: How did Israel track and assassinate leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah?

Media review: How did Israel track and assassinate leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah?

    Friday, August 02, 2024   No comments

There are many theories now being floated by both government sources and media outlets trying to explain the surgical strikes Israel undertook to assassinate leaders of Hamas and other armed factions. Here is a review of what is now circulating in news outlets and on social media platforms.

Iranian agency: Haniyeh was assassinated by a shell that hit his residence

The Iranian Fars News Agency confirmed that the assassination of the head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), Ismail Haniyeh, was carried out by a shell that hit his residence, destroying part of its roof and windows. 

It added that investigations confirmed that Israel planned and carried out the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.

The New York Times reported that American officials secretly admitted that Israel assassinated Haniyeh in the Iranian capital, Tehran, yesterday, Wednesday.

The newspaper explained that the American officials’ statement came despite the fact that Israel did not announce its adoption of the assassination and refused to comment on the incident publicly.

In contrast, Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari claimed on Thursday that the army did not launch any airstrikes on Iran or any other country in the Middle East on Wednesday.

In response to a question about the assassination of Haniyeh, he said in a press conference, “We did not attack Iran from the air.”

He added, “We killed (the prominent Hezbollah leader) Fouad Shukr in Lebanon, but there was no other Israeli airstrike in the entire Middle East after that.”

However, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards said in a statement that technical investigations show that Haniyeh's assassination was carried out with a short-range projectile with a warhead weighing 7.5 kilograms, fired from outside the place where the martyr Haniyeh lived.

Was a third country involved in the assassination? 

Initially, an Iranian source revealed that the martyrdom of the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran "was carried out by a missile launched from one country to another, not from within Iran."

For his part, the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Nasser Kanaani, confirmed that the relevant Iranian authorities are continuing "the necessary investigations to determine the dimensions and details of this incident."

Kanaani said: "There is no doubt that the pure blood of this mujahid, who spent his life in jihad and honorable struggle against the usurping Zionist entity, and on the path to liberating holy Jerusalem and liberating the Palestinian people, will not go in vain."

He added: "Haniyeh's martyrdom in Tehran will strengthen the deep and solid relations between Iran, Palestine and the resistance even more."

Western Sources' explanations

In parallel, the New York Times and the American website Axios published another story, confirming Israel's responsibility for Haniyeh's assassination, but claiming that the assassination was carried out by an explosive device planted by Mossad agents in his room, and detonated remotely.

Public Data Analasys based explanation

The competing explanations open the door to speculations given the precision and the timing of the assassination. An alternative theory based on available information that is in the public domain suggest that Israel is using the phones of associates to track the persons Israel has placed on its assassination list. Such analysis suggests that, in its recent assassinations, Israel's security forces targeted the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah by tracking the phone numbers of their companions. Because the high value targets who know that they are on the assassination list are not allowed to use mobile phones, Israel was unable to locate and assassinate them in the past. 

However, a security lapse happened after Israel assassinated the children and grandchildren of Ismail Haniyeh few months ago. Hamas sources broadcasted a video of the moment when Haniyeh received the news of the murder of his family members. In the clip, it showed him receiving the call on someone else's phone and listening to it. 

As the primary leader leading the investigation, Haniyeh used his aid's phone to keep in touch with the Qatari leaders. That number was likely used to track Haniyeh's movement.

The same strategy was replicated elsewhere, Israel stopped trying to locate the persons it wanted to assassinate directly, and focused on tracking their aids who are often in close contact with the targeted person.

This theory explains the precision and speed with which Israel carried out the recent assassination.

 Theories that suggest the use of human intelligence and agents presence on the ground cannot explain the speed and precision. The above theory is bolstered by the unusual step taken by the Israeli government limiting the use of phones by government officials, as reported in Israeli media.

Israel distributes special phones to ministers

The Israeli government has decided to distribute satellite phones to ministers and senior officials. The move aims to limit security threats and to ensure that ministers stay connected in the case of damage sustained by the regular communications network during an attack from Iran and Hezbollah. The latter explanation was opined by the media. The government did not comment.

The Maariv newspaper said: "The government is taking an unusual step, for fear that the communications networks will be damaged in an Iranian attack."

  

Islamic Societies Review MONTHLY -- July 2024

Islamic Societies Review MONTHLY -- July 2024

    Thursday, August 01, 2024   No comments

ISR MONTHLY is a bulletin updating readers about news stories and analyses of the month. 

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     Sunday, July 28, 2024   No comments

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     Friday, July 26, 2024   No comments

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Palestinian factions sign 'Beijing Declaration'; agree to form an "interim national reconciliation government"

     Tuesday, July 23, 2024   No comments

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Tanzania's president dismisses two ministers as part of a constitutional amendment

     Monday, July 22, 2024   No comments

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     Sunday, July 21, 2024   No comments

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     Thursday, July 18, 2024   No comments

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Syria's Assad: Ready to meet Erdogan if it serves Syria's interest

     Monday, July 15, 2024   No comments

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Dehumanizing Opponents as an Instrument of Supremacism: "human animals"

     Monday, July 15, 2024   No comments

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Muhammad Halsa, Writer and researcher; content of byline articles express the opinion of author(s).

Media Review: Washington Post | The Israeli army is "exhausted to the core" and the invasion of Lebanon is a trap for an endless war

     Monday, July 15, 2024   No comments

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Imran Khan's party's presence in parliament gains strength months after the elections

     Friday, July 12, 2024   No comments

Pakistan's Supreme Court ruled on Friday that the party of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan is eligible for 23 additional seats in parliament, adding...

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     Thursday, July 11, 2024   No comments

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     Monday, July 08, 2024   No comments

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     Tuesday, July 02, 2024   No comments

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     Tuesday, July 02, 2024   No comments

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