The Washington Institute: Hezbollah's popularity and support for Hamas have risen in Lebanon

The Washington Institute: Hezbollah's popularity and support for Hamas have risen in Lebanon

    Wednesday, January 10, 2024   No comments

The American "Washington Institute" conducted an opinion poll in Lebanon, and found that there was an increase in Hezbollah's popularity compared to the last poll conducted in November 2020, and that support for Hamas was more widespread in Lebanese society.

The Institute conducted this survey in the aftermath of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” saga and the escalation between the Israeli forces and Hezbollah, during the period extending from November 14 to December 6.

The Washington Institute poll showed that 79% of the Lebanese express a positive opinion of Hamas, while perceptions of a military solution to the conflict with the occupation, rather than a “political solution,” are much more widespread in Lebanon than in other Arab countries.

As for the position on the United States of America, the poll found that most Lebanese, specifically 71%, do not agree with the idea that Washington “is still in the best position to help end the war in Gaza.”

The institute also noted that there is “a noticeable shift in Lebanese society, away from the United States and towards other powers,” as the percentage of those who agree that their country “cannot rely on the United States these days, and therefore must look more to Russia or China.” As partners, it rose by 17 points.

Some Lebanese politicians and their outside backers may have celebrated too soon

Some Lebanese politicians and their outside backers may have celebrated too soon

    Monday, May 16, 2022   No comments

Maysem Rizq Reviews News coverage of Elections in Lebenon

 

It remains for the Lebanese to preserve their fresh memory to review the winners or losers in everything they said and made during the past two months.

24 hours was enough to turn the picture of the results that the opponents of Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement wanted to circulate on Sunday evening. If Hezbollah (along with its ally, President Nabih Berri) has firmly seized the entire Shiite parliamentary bloc over the whole of Lebanon, what emergped from the developments in the Christian community ended in the absence of the image of victory that the Lebanese forces spread on Sunday evening, and official and unofficial results showed that the current The Free Patriotic Movement won a parliamentary bloc that outperforms the forces bloc. And if the loss of the current in the Jezzine district represented a major blow, the forces’ loss of one of the two seats of Bcharre was a major and unprecedented blow, bearing in mind that scrutiny of vote percentages remains linked to reviewing the full results. A quick reading of the names of the winners from the members of the two teams or those allied with them shows the movement's progress over the forces by at least a seat.

What was remarkable on the day following the count was not only the loss of some Hezbollah allies, including all the Syrian Social Nationalist Party candidates and candidates Talal Arslan, Wiam Wahhab and Marwan Khair al-Din, but rather the ability of youth groups that emerged from the October 17 uprising to achieve serious violations in several circles. It can be said that these groups succeeded in challenging the traditional forces in the south, the Bekaa, the mountains and the north, in addition to Beirut.

Detailed political readings will occupy the scene over the next few days. But what must be confirmed until now is not promising, especially since the voting in most constituencies was based on a sharp sectarian and sectarian background, and even the boycott in many constituencies reflected the frustration of a large part of the Sunnis who represent the base of the Future Movement.

In practice, the official results announced by the Minister of Interior Bassam al-Mawlawi until midnight last night presented the final figures in 12 constituencies, and the official results remained limited to the districts of Tripoli - Minieh - Denniye, Akkar and Beirut II, where it is assumed that the real repercussions of the reluctance of President Saad Hariri's audience in these Sunni-majority districts.

There are many titles related to the main forces that ran in the elections. But the media scene, with its political background, focused on two things. The first relates to the results of voting in the Christian street and the nature of voting among Sunnis in most of Lebanon's districts. In this context, the following can be mentioned:

Tayyar (Current) and Quwat (Forces)

From Sunday evening until sunset yesterday, time was heavy on the audience and leaders of the Free Patriotic Movement. Despite Gibran Bassil winning his seat in Batroun, and declaring his victory over all the political forces and financial machines that had gathered to topple him, the announced results indicated that the movement had lost in front of the forces. This was reflected in frustration among the Aoun public, especially since the forces did not provide a television or radio program or a page on social media to announce their landslide victory and the formation of the largest parliamentary bloc from north to south. It is not just numbers for the movement, but its loss of a set of political privileges that begin with the government and do not end with appointments and key Christian positions in the state as well as sitting at the decision table. The privileges he has been accustomed to since 2005 as a result of his victory in the largest parliamentary bloc, and which mainly led to the arrival of President Michel Aoun to his position. The crash looked strong after 17 years.

In the evening, however, the scene changed. The picture began to fade since it became clear that the movement won four seats in Akkar, followed by the announcement of the victory of MP George Atallah in Koura, and then the forces' loss of the minority seat in Beirut I. This coincided with the struggle of candidate Gad Ghosn with the forces on the Matn seat, and news of the loss of George Adwan in the Chouf in favor of Ghada Eid.

On paper and pen, the Aounists could enumerate 19 deputies, in addition to 3 allied deputies from the Tashnaq Party, so that the bloc would have 22 deputies. While the forces were retreating from 23 to 18, MP Raji Al-Saad was added to them as an ally after MP Camille Chamoun announced that he did not intend to join the bloc of forces, bringing the result to 22 for the current and 19 for the forces. Soon, it became possible to talk about a completely changed picture between the two republics; The Quwatists seemed more anxious, and the Aounists more comfortable, especially with the "violation" of George Atallah in Koura.

However, the biggest blow that the Forces received came after the official result of the third northern district was announced, and the announcement of the fall of the troop candidate Joseph Ishak in exchange for the victory of the candidate William Tawq in the troop den in Bcharre. It is a loss equal to 18 deputies or more. This news sparked a wave of countless comments and publications, the majority of which belong to the Free Patriotic Movement. MP Strida Geagea, prior to the election day, addressed Basil by saying: “Let him stop his neighbors in Batroun on May 15th.” You shook and you became a human being, a rewarder.” Thus, it flared up again between the forces and the current, and it was now possible to talk about the Aounists regaining their breath. In fact, the Free Patriotic Movement will organize a "victory festival" to announce its victory next Saturday. For him, “Exiting this many representatives after all the war that was waged against him, both foreign and internal, and by all available means, including Gulf ambassadors, pressure on candidates, money, propaganda, media, media professionals, and funded programs, is a crushing victory, stronger and stronger than all past victories.”

Results of the Lebanese Parliamentary Elections (partial)

Results of the Lebanese Parliamentary Elections (partial)

    Monday, May 16, 2022   No comments

 

The Lebanese Parliamentary Elections.. Announcing the winning candidates in 12 constituencies

The representatives were distributed among their parties so far, according to the following:

Hezbollah and Amal Movement: 32 deputies

Free Patriotic Movement: 20 deputies

Lebanese Forces Party: 18 deputies

The Kataeb Party: 5 MPs

Tashnak Party: 2

Marada party: 2

Independents: 14 deputies

Civil society: 11 deputies

The Minister of Interior and Municipalities of Lebanon held a press conference at eleven at night in which he announced the preliminary and non-final percentages of the parliamentary elections that took place in the 15 constituencies on all Lebanese territories. And the Lebanese National News Agency reported that the minister said, in an on-screen explanation, that "the percentages are estimates and are not final, and they are issued by the operations room in the General Directorate of the Internal Security Forces after the officers communicated with the heads of the regions in all regions. There are 60 unfinished positions remaining. Some have been handed over. The heads of the centers, the registration committees, the records of the pens, according to what we received from the directorate, and he said: "They are discretionary percentages, and they become final after looking into all the objections submitted by the candidates or the candidates' representatives, and we will follow up on the final result little by little."

Minister Mawlawi read out the estimated voting percentages after closing the polls, with the exception of 60 polling stations, which are as follows:

Beirut First District: 28.50%

Beirut Second District: 38.33%

Mount Lebanon First District (Byblos - Kesrouane): 55.93%

Mount Lebanon Second District (Matn): 42.70%

Mount Lebanon Third District (Baabda): 43.44%

Mount Lebanon Fourth District (Chouf - Aley): 44.49%

South District One (Sidon - Jezzine): 42.30%

Second South District (Sidon Villages - Tyre): 42.77%

South District Three: (Hasbaya - Marjeyoun - Nabatiyeh - Bint Jbeil): 41.76%

North District One (Akkar): 40.73%

Second North District (Minya - Denniye - Tripoli): 30.60%

North Third District (Zgharta - Bcharre - Koura - Batroun): 38.45%

Bekaa District One (Zahle): 43.02%

Second Bekaa Constituency (Rashaya - West Bekaa): 34.20%

Bekaa Third District (Baalbek-Hermel): 48.90%

Total in all of Lebanon: 41.04%

Parliamentary elections are held in Lebanon every 4 years, according to the distribution adopted since the Taif Agreement in 1989, with 128 seats divided equally between Muslims and Christians throughout the country.

The 128 seats are distributed as follows: 28 for Sunnis, 28 for Shiites, 8 for Druze, 34 for Maronites, 14 for Orthodox, 8 for Catholics, 5 for Armenians, two seats for Alawites, and one seat for minorities within the Christian community.

Some details:

According to Mawlawi, the voter turnout in the second district of Mount Lebanon (Northern Matn) reached 49.43%, and the winners are:

Two seats for the Free Patriotic Movement: Ibrahim Kanaan and Elias Bou Saab.

Two seats for the Lebanese Forces party: Melhem Riachy and Razi al-Hajj.

Two seats for the Lebanese Kataeb Party: Sami Gemayel and Elias Hankash.

A seat for the Tashnaq party: Hagop Pakradounian.

Independent seat: Michel Murr.

As for the fourth district of Mount Lebanon (Chouf - Aley), the voter turnout reached 48.6%, and the winners are:

5 seats for the Progressive Socialist Party: Taymour Jumblatt, Marwan Hamadeh, Akram Chehayeb, Bilal Abdullah and Raji Al-Saad.

3 seats for the Free Patriotic Movement: Farid Al-Bustani, Cesar Abi Khalil and Ghassan Atallah.

3 independent seats: Najat Khattar Aoun, Halima Kaqour and Mark Daou.

Two seats for the Lebanese Forces party: George Adwan and Nazih Matta.

In the third district of the North (Bcharre - Batroun - Zgharta - Koura), the voter turnout was 44.20%. The winners are:

Two seats for the Lebanese Forces party: Sethrida Geagea and Ghiath Yazbek.

Two seats for the Free Patriotic Movement: Gebran Bassil and George Atallah.

Two seats for the Marada Movement: Tony Franjieh and William Tawk.

3 seats for independents: Michel Moawad, Adib Abdel Massih and Michel Douaihy.

As for the third district of the South (Bint Jbeil - Nabatiyeh - Marjayoun and Hasbaya), the winners are:

3 seats for Hezbollah: Muhammad Raad, Hassan Fadlallah and Ali Fayyad.

6 seats for the Amal Movement: Hani Qubaisi, Ali Hassan Khalil, Ayoub Hamid, Ashraf Baydoun, Nasser Jaber and Qassem Hashem.

Two seats for independents: Elias Jarada and Firas Hamdan.

Molloy had announced, earlier, the results of the following departments:

- South District One (Sidon - Jezzine), the voter turnout was 46.6%, and the winners are:

3 seats for independents: Abdel Rahman Al-Bizri, Osama Saad and Charbel Massad.

Two seats for the Lebanese Forces party: Ghada Ayoub and Saeed Al-Asmar.

In the second district of the South (Tyre - Sidon villages), the voter turnout was 48.8%, and the winners are:

5 seats for the Amal Movement: Nabih Berri, Ali Khreis, Inayat Ezzedine, Ali Oseiran and Michel Musa.

Two seats for Hezbollah: Hussein Jashi and Hassan Ezzedine.

Bekaa District One (Zahle), the voter turnout was 49.5%, and the winners are:

Two seats for the Lebanese Forces party: George Akis and Elias Stephan.

Seat of the Free Patriotic Movement: Salim Aoun.

A seat for the Tashnaq Party: George Bushekian.

A seat for Hezbollah: Rami Abu Hamdan.

Independent seat: Michel Daher.

The Second Bekaa Constituency (West Bekaa - Rashaya), the voter turnout was 42.47%, and the winners are:

A seat for the Amal movement: Qabalan Qabalan.

Seat of the Progressive Socialist Party: Wael Abu Faour.

Seat of the Free Patriotic Movement: Charbel Maroun.

3 independent seats: Hassan Murad, Yassin Yassin and Ghassan Skaf.

In the third Bekaa constituency (Baalbek-Hermel), the winners are:

Six seats for Hezbollah: Hussein Al-Hajj Hassan, Ihab Hamadeh, Ali Al-Miqdad, Ibrahim Al-Mousawi, Yall Al-Solh, and Melhem Al-Hujairi.

Seat for the Amal Movement: Ghazi Zuaiter.

Seat of the Free Patriotic Movement: Samer Al-Tom.

Seat of the Lebanese Forces: Antoine Habashi.

Seat for Independents: Jamil El-Sayed.

- Mount Lebanon First Constituency (Byblos - Kesrouan), the voter turnout was 63.4%, and the winners are:

Two seats for the Lebanese Forces party: Ziad Al-Hawat and Shawki Daccache.

Two seats for the Free Patriotic Movement: Simon Abi Ramia and Nada Al-Bustani.

Two seats for independents: Nima'a Afram and Farid Haikal El-Khazen.

Seat of the Lebanese Kataeb Party: Salim Al-Sayegh.

A seat for Hezbollah: Raed Berro.

- Mount Lebanon Third District (Baabda), the voter turnout was 47.39%, and the winners are:

Seat of the Lebanese Forces Party: Pierre Bou Assi.

Seat of the Free Patriotic Movement: Alain Aoun.

Seat of the Progressive Socialist Party: Hadi Abul-Hassan.

Seat of the National Liberal Party: Camille Chamoun.

A seat for Hezbollah: Ali Ammar.

A seat for the Amal movement: Fadi Alama.

Thus, the Ministry of Interior has announced the results of 11 constituencies, provided that the results of the remaining four constituencies (Beirut's first and second districts and the first and second districts of the North) will be announced, respectively. The voter turnout in all of Lebanon reached about 41%, noting that the voter turnout in the 2018 session was 49.68%.

Saudi Arabia: The Hariri and Khashoggi files are an example of media failure

Saudi Arabia: The Hariri and Khashoggi files are an example of media failure

    Friday, November 05, 2021   No comments

 

Exactly four years ago, Saad Hariri spent his first night in detention in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, by order of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The latter was in the process of carrying out a coup in Lebanon, re-shuffling the cards in the Levant. After this coup failed inside Lebanon, Western and Arab countries intervened to rescue Hariri from captivity and return him to Beirut.

Bin Salman did not preach, and repeated the crime a year later, in his country's consulate in Istanbul, where Jamal Khashoggi was murdered. No one in the world objected to what the Rising Prince had done within the confines of his kingdom. But the two crimes of kidnapping Hariri and killing Khashoggi left him in more embarrassment than the aggression on Yemen. The crime that a besieged people has been subjected to, continuously for more than six years, is being waged by Ibn Salman with full Western support, breached from time to time by slight criticism from American or European officials, while they leave their official positions, or when they want to blackmail the milking cow in Riyadh.

Hariri's kidnapping crime was the basis. The Saudi crown prince did not pay for it, which encouraged him to commit others. Khashoggi's murder may have been a direct result of bin Salman's impunity after he kidnapped the prime minister of a supposedly sovereign country in the twenty-first century. It can also be concluded that the failure to hold him accountable, even verbally, for his actions on November 4, 2017, made him dare to repeat the coup attempt in Jordan, where he could not invoke confronting the non-existent Iranian influence, nor fighting Hezbollah and its arsenal. Today, it is opening a new chapter of recklessness in Lebanon, by punishing it and seeking to bring about political change in it, through blackmail and threats, under the pretext of statements made by a media person who happened to become, after that, the Minister of Information. George Kordahi's case is also based on the passing of the crime that took place four years ago, without any blame. The former Lebanese prime minister acted like a Saudi citizen, seeking the consent of the guardian, by all possible means. But the problem was that official Lebanon had also given up its right. Despite the passage of four years since bin Salman’s aggression, the authority agreed to be in the position of the accused, not the accused, which prompted the Saudi regime to carry out more attacks on the “younger brother”: the Lebanese security services help their Saudi counterparts in the fight against drugs, so the reward is penalties in the commercial field . (Former) Foreign Minister Charbel Wahba makes a verbal mistake against Saudi Arabia, so he is forced to resign. George Qardahi says a word of truth about the criminal war on Yemen, so Ibn Salman decides to punish the whole of Lebanon.

The problem is not so much with the emir's recklessness as it is with the authority that has made Lebanon a country "with low walls". The strong performance of that authority in November 2017, which eventually led to the release of the prime minister, was quickly wasted in the following days. The crime of kidnapping Hariri, humiliating him and forcing him to resign, was an occasion to correct part of the distortion in the dysfunctional relationship between the Saudi regime and Lebanon. The latter was not required to wage war, but rather his duty was to manage the post-crisis phase in a manner that preserves the country's rights and dignity, and deters Ibn Salman from repeating his crime. Leaving him in this way, he turned the crime of kidnapping the prime minister, as was the killing of Khashoggi later, into a public relations problem that Ibn Salman addresses by spending some money on image-improving companies, and encouraging him to make Lebanon a servile country that obeys his orders. As usual, official Lebanon is looking for a way to acquiesce again, ignoring that whoever kidnapped a prime minister one day, without anyone questioning him, will repeat it in the coming days. This is the conclusion that Najib Mikati should be aware of today, while he is talking about “predominantly the national interest.” Achieving this “interest” by conceding to bin Salman again and again means placing the neck of the concessioner between two future options: slapping and kicking at the Ritz-Carlton, or sawing off in a consulate.

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Source: Alakhbar

Bin Salman kidnaps Lebanon and asks the Gulf states to exert maximum political and commercial pressure: Saudi Arabia is losing in Marib and attacking in Beirut

Bin Salman kidnaps Lebanon and asks the Gulf states to exert maximum political and commercial pressure: Saudi Arabia is losing in Marib and attacking in Beirut

    Saturday, October 30, 2021   No comments

Media Review: Lebanon in the News

Just like on November 4, 2017, the day Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman decided to kidnap the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri, and force him to resign. Yesterday, Bin Salman decided to kidnap the entire Lebanese government, and force it to kneel before him, or to leave, under the pretext of statements made by Minister of Information George Qardahi, before his appointment as a minister, in which he criticized the aggression on Yemen. And as 4 years ago, so was last night. As soon as the Saudi regime announced the withdrawal of its ambassador from Beirut, the expulsion of the Lebanese ambassador in Riyadh, and the cessation of imports from Lebanon, the same media outlets, and the politicians themselves, went out to cover the madness of Ibn Salman and his decision to pressure Lebanon and push it into submission. For example, the head of the Lebanese Forces party, Samir Geagea - who was the only politician whom the Saudi ambassador, Walid al-Bukhari, visited publicly before announcing his withdrawal from Beirut - delivered a clear threat to the Lebanese: “There is a very big rolling crisis between the Gulf states and the Lebanese government. The current government majority is called upon to take a quick, decisive and clear decision to spare the Lebanese people more tragedies.” Meanwhile, former MP Walid Jumblatt was clearer than Geagea, in terms of his demand for the dismissal of "this minister who will destroy our relations with the Gulf."

Sources linked to the Saudi regime confirmed that Riyadh wants to overthrow the government of Najib Mikati, so either the latter and his government submit, with what this means by opening the door for concessions that will not stop at an end, or he resigns. The new Saudi position seems to have taken statements made by Minister Qardahi, before the formation of the government, as a pretext to attack Lebanon, due to the failure of Ibn Salman's forces in Yemen, specifically in the battle of Marib. In its statement in which it announced the withdrawal of its ambassador from Beirut and the expulsion of the Lebanese ambassador in Riyadh, the Saudi government repeated lies about Lebanon's lack of cooperation with it in the field of drug control, despite the fact that the majority of drug seizures in Saudi ports are based on information from the Lebanese security services. But the most important thing in the statement is the repetition of talk about Hezbollah and its “control” of Lebanon, and “providing support and training for the terrorist Houthi militia.”

Saudi Arabia's decision to escalate in Lebanon will be joined by other Gulf states, the first of which was, as usual, Bahrain, which at night copied Riyadh's measures (expulsion of the Lebanese ambassador). While it was reported that Qatar and Oman would not trade with Saudi Arabia, Riyadh decided to conduct a series of contacts with other Arab countries in an attempt to take a decision in the Arab League against Lebanon!

What happened remains within the framework of a new adventure for bin Salman, unless the United States and France decide to adopt it. In that case, Lebanon will face a major decision to drag it into total chaos, which supports the argument of those convinced of it, the US sanctions decision issued the day before yesterday against Representative Jamil Al-Sayed and businessmen Jihad Al-Arab and Danny Khoury. However, the information that was available yesterday indicated that American and French contacts with Mikati, urging him not to resign, with “the need to address the emerging problem with Saudi Arabia.”

Mikati rushed to contact the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun. After a statement expressing his regret for the Saudi decision, he called Minister Qardahi and "asked him to assess the national interest and take the appropriate decision to reform Lebanon's Arab relations," according to a statement issued by the prime minister's office. This statement means an encouragement from Mikati to Qardahi to resign. Prior to that, Hezbollah had informed the Prime Minister that any attempt to dismiss the Minister of Information in the Council of Ministers (this decision requires two-thirds of the members of the government) would mean the resignation of the party's ministers. Attempts were made to put pressure on former MP Suleiman Franjieh, as he named Qardahi to the ministry, but the Marada leader refused to pressure the minister and push him to resign. Pending what the Minister of Information will decide, the Prime Minister decided not to cut short his visit to Scotland, where he is participating in the United Nations Climate Change Conference.

Sources in contact with the Saudi authorities said that Riyadh has informed its allies in Lebanon since the day before yesterday that it is in the process of escalating steps against Lebanon. In parallel, the Saudis expressed their “disappointment” that the reactions to Qardahi’s words were limited to statements of denunciation, amid expectations that ministers affiliated with the Future Movement and the Socialist Party would resign from the government, as well as popular movements in a number of Lebanese regions denouncing what Qardahi had made. .

The sources pointed out that Saudi Arabia, which heard requests slowly from Qatar and Kuwait, hastened to take its steps and is awaiting similar measures soon from others, especially the United Arab Emirates, which had not announced any action.

In addition to these steps, Saudi Arabia appeared to be acting very angry, and the callers said that Saudi diplomacy was talking about a failure in the Iranian-Saudi negotiations on Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. Riyadh has sought with Damascus, through the Emirati side, to play a role in the Yemen file and in the Lebanon file as well, in return for Riyadh helping to return Syria to the Arab League and communicating with the Europeans and Americans to open the door for aid in the reconstruction process.

As for the position of the allies in Lebanon, the Saudi side deliberately limited the ambassador’s visits to Geagea without other prominent leaders, and that he clearly expressed the continuation of the estrangement with Prime Minister Saad Hariri and the Future Movement, and that Riyadh will not ask the latter for any step “and he knows what must be done.” doing it".

Bin Salman kidnaps Lebanon and asks the Gulf states to exert maximum political and commercial pressure: Saudi Arabia is losing in Marib and attacking in Beirut

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Source: «الأخبار»