In the News Now: Reflections on Empire and Decline

In the News Now: Reflections on Empire and Decline

    Friday, May 15, 2026   No comments

The conversation about American power has shifted in recent weeks, moving from academic journals and policy briefings into mainstream editorial pages and diplomatic exchanges. A New York Times opinion piece recently framed a pivotal moment in U.S. foreign policy as emblematic of a broader pattern, suggesting that military actions in the Middle East have accelerated rather than reversed a trajectory of diminishing global influence. This framing resonates with observations from high-level diplomacy, where leaders of rising powers, including Chinese leader, Xi, have openly characterized the United States in terms of relative decline during bilateral meetings.

These contemporary assessments invite comparison with historical theories of civilizational cycles. The fourteenth-century scholar Ibn Khaldun developed a framework centered on two key concepts: `asabiyya, or social cohesion, and hadara, the sophisticated urban civilization that emerges when cohesive groups consolidate power. In his analysis, empires rise when strong group solidarity enables conquest and institution-building, but gradually weaken as prosperity erodes that solidarity, replacing shared purpose with individual ambition and administrative complexity. The transition from desert austerity to urban luxury, in Khaldun's view, sows the seeds of eventual fragility.

Applying this lens to current debates requires careful distinction between symptoms and structural shifts. Military overextension, domestic polarization, and economic strain are not new challenges for any hegemon. What matters is whether these pressures reflect temporary setbacks within a resilient system or evidence of deeper civilizational misalignment—where institutions no longer channel collective energy toward common goals. Some analysts argue that the United States retains significant advantages in innovation, demographic dynamism, and alliance networks that complicate any simple narrative of terminal decline.

The recurrence of decline discourse itself carries weight. When influential voices in media and diplomacy invoke the language of imperial twilight, they shape perceptions that can become self-fulfilling. Allies may hedge their commitments; adversaries may test boundaries; domestic audiences may grow skeptical of international engagement. The psychological dimension of power—confidence, legitimacy, the belief in a shared project—matters as much as material capabilities.

History offers no predetermined endpoints. Empires have reversed course through reform, renewal, and recalibration. The value of frameworks like Ibn Khaldun's lies not in prediction but in diagnosis: prompting reflection on what sustains collective purpose, how institutions adapt to changing circumstances, and whether a society can renew its foundational solidarities without abandoning its core principles. The question for any nation navigating moments of uncertainty is not whether decline is inevitable, but whether it possesses the wisdom to recognize the difference between the end of an era and the beginning of a necessary transformation.

Week in Review: Trump’s China Visit Ends in Quiet Concessions and Diminished Influence

Week in Review: Trump’s China Visit Ends in Quiet Concessions and Diminished Influence

    Friday, May 15, 2026   No comments

The Beijing Freeze

The red carpet has been rolled up in Beijing, and as the diplomatic dust settles, the autopsy of President Trump’s high-stakes visit to China suggests a sobering shift in the global order. While the administration attempted to project strength, the consensus among analysts and Western media is that the trip yielded few concrete victories for Washington, leaving the door wide open for President Xi Jinping to frame the future of U.S.-China relations on his own terms.

Is Western civilization on the verge of collapse?

Is Western civilization on the verge of collapse?

    Tuesday, August 06, 2024   No comments

Human civilization has been a topic for historians, sociologists, philosophers, thinkers, and scientists throughout history. The discussion of the rise and fall of human civilization often leads to a look back at the work of the Muslim thinker Abd al-Rahman Ibn Khaldun who is often described as the originator of the theory of cyclicality of human civilization. Although Ibn Khaldun did not take credit for such idea, and many modern researchers have concluded that that idea was not Ibn Khaldun's original idea, it is nonetheless part of his work and his contribution to the field of social history. Related to this topic, we examine and re-present ideas by a scientist from the modern time, one who used statistical data to predict social trends.

On the New Scientist website, Peter Valentinovich Turchin, a Russian-American scientist specializing in mathematical modeling and statistical analysis, presents his analysis of the decline of Western civilization and its causes by studying mathematical patterns in complex systems and applying them to history. Turchin believes that Western societies are rapidly moving toward the brink of destruction, and that they must make important decisions to avoid this collapse. Here are some of  Turchin's ideas and assertions. 

The collapse of civilizations seems to have been a natural and recurring pattern in the development of cultures throughout history, with a period of decline and weakness often following a period of prosperity. The closest examples of this are what happened to the ancient Egyptian Empire, the Roman Empire, the Mayan civilization (one of the ancient civilizations that emerged in the region of Central and South America*), and the Qing Dynasty in China, which experienced periods of prosperity followed by collapse, and this seems to be the inevitable path of any civilization.

Today, Western civilization may face the same fate, as there are clear signs of a variety of crises, including widening economic inequalities, political divisions, violent conflicts, and environmental disasters. Some observers see this as a sign of a “multiple global crises” that pose a serious, perhaps existential, threat to contemporary societies.

More than two decades ago, I predicted that this was the end of things, based on studying mathematical patterns in complex systems and applying them to history. Using this approach, I discovered that violent political upheavals follow certain time cycles, one peaking every 50 years or so, and the other peaking every two or three centuries.