Showing posts with label Ibn Khaldun. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ibn Khaldun. Show all posts

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Media Review: Will AI Make Work Optional?

    Sunday, July 26, 2026   No comments

An Ibn Khaldunian Response to the Myth of the Post-Work Society

Each new technological revolution has inspired predictions about the end of work. The industrial revolution promised liberation from physical labor. Computers were expected to eliminate paperwork and usher in an era of leisure. Today, artificial intelligence has given rise to an even more ambitious claim: that work itself will become optional.

This assertion is repeated with increasing confidence by technology executives, futurists, and investors. Some envision a future in which AI performs virtually all productive labor while human beings receive a universal income, freeing them to pursue creativity, recreation, or personal fulfillment. It is an appealing vision. It is also, upon closer examination, conceptually confused.

The confusion arises from treating employment and work as though they were the same thing.

They are not.

Employment is a social institution. Work is an ontological reality.

This distinction, articulated with remarkable clarity by Ibn Khaldun more than six centuries ago, exposes the central weakness in the contemporary narrative surrounding artificial intelligence.

According to Ibn Khaldun, all value originates in work. Human prosperity does not emerge from money, markets, or ownership alone. Rather, every form of wealth traces its origin to productive activity. Agriculture, manufacturing, construction, transportation, education, governance, and commerce all create value because they involve work. Money merely records and facilitates the exchange of that value. In this framework, money is not wealth itself. It is a store of the value created by work. The implications of this principle are profound. 

Artificial intelligence may indeed perform an increasing share of productive activities. Machines may design buildings, diagnose diseases, write software, conduct scientific research, and manufacture goods with minimal human intervention. None of this abolishes work. It merely changes the system performing it.

The work has not disappeared. It has shifted from one productive system to another.

This observation reveals the first conceptual error in the claim that AI will make work optional. If an AI system produces a bridge, writes a legal brief, or discovers a new medicine, those outcomes remain the products of work. They are events produced by a system operating through energy over time. Work continues to exist because every event remains the consequence of work performed by some system.

What disappears is not work. What may disappear is human employment. This distinction fundamentally changes the discussion. Once employment is separated from work, a much more difficult question emerges.

If AI performs the productive work, who receives the value created by that work?

The popular answer is that society will simply redistribute the resulting abundance through universal income or some similar mechanism. However, this answer quietly assumes the very conclusion it must prove. Where does the money come from?

The answer cannot be "from AI." Artificial intelligence does not own itself. Robots do not collect profits. Algorithms do not pay taxes. Every productive AI system is owned by someone—individuals, corporations, governments, or investment funds. Consequently, the economic value produced by AI flows first to its owners. This is not speculation. It is precisely how modern economic systems already operate. The irony is difficult to ignore.

Many of the strongest advocates of a post-work society owe their extraordinary fortunes to institutions that rigorously protect private ownership of productive capital. Their wealth was accumulated because existing legal and economic systems reward ownership, investment, and capital appreciation. Those same institutions have produced some of the greatest concentrations of wealth in history.

If these ownership structures remain unchanged, AI will not eliminate inequality. It will likely magnify it. The contradiction is obvious. One cannot simultaneously celebrate an economic system that concentrates the returns to ownership while assuming that its future outputs will somehow be distributed equally to everyone. Technology does not produce redistribution. Institutions do. The question therefore is not whether AI can create abundance. The question is whether those who own the productive systems will willingly surrender a substantial portion of the value generated by those systems. History offers little reason for such confidence.

Indeed, one need only consider the incentives facing the owners of advanced AI. If enormous productive capacity generates unprecedented profits, the rational response within existing institutions is to reinvest those profits, acquire additional productive assets, expand market dominance, and increase future returns. Nothing in contemporary capitalism naturally converts concentrated ownership into universal prosperity. To assume otherwise is not economic analysis. It is wishful thinking.

 This is precisely where Ibn Khaldun's analysis proves remarkably contemporary. His insight was never merely that people must work. His deeper claim was that work is the source from which all economic value ultimately flows. Whenever value becomes detached from productive contribution and instead accumulates primarily through institutional mechanisms that bypass work, societies begin to experience structural distortions. Wealth becomes increasingly concentrated, productive incentives weaken, social cohesion deteriorates, and political instability follows.

The real challenge is whether societies can redesign their institutions so that the value generated by increasingly autonomous productive systems continues to circulate in ways that preserve economic participation, social legitimacy, and political stability.

That is an institutional question—not a technological one.

Artificial intelligence may become one of the greatest productive tools humanity has ever created.

But no technology, regardless of its sophistication, abolishes the fundamental principle that value originates in work.

Six centuries ago, Ibn Khaldun recognized this principle with extraordinary clarity. Today, as the world imagines a future beyond work, his insight deserves renewed attention.

 AI changes who—or more precisely, what—performs productive work. It does not eliminate the necessity of work as the source of value.

The future is not post-work

The future is a struggle over who owns the systems that perform the work, who receives the value those systems create, and whether our institutions continue to recognize that money is not wealth itself, but only a representation of work already performed.

The dream that AI will make work optional mistakes a transformation in the organization of production for the disappearance of production itself. It confuses employment with work, ownership with creation, and technological possibility with institutional reality. The machines may change. The principle does not: Work remains the foundation upon which every event—and every civilization—ultimately rests.


Friday, May 15, 2026

In the News Now: Reflections on Empire and Decline

    Friday, May 15, 2026   No comments

The conversation about American power has shifted in recent weeks, moving from academic journals and policy briefings into mainstream editorial pages and diplomatic exchanges. A New York Times opinion piece recently framed a pivotal moment in U.S. foreign policy as emblematic of a broader pattern, suggesting that military actions in the Middle East have accelerated rather than reversed a trajectory of diminishing global influence. This framing resonates with observations from high-level diplomacy, where leaders of rising powers, including Chinese leader, Xi, have openly characterized the United States in terms of relative decline during bilateral meetings.

These contemporary assessments invite comparison with historical theories of civilizational cycles. The fourteenth-century scholar Ibn Khaldun developed a framework centered on two key concepts: `asabiyya, or social cohesion, and hadara, the sophisticated urban civilization that emerges when cohesive groups consolidate power. In his analysis, empires rise when strong group solidarity enables conquest and institution-building, but gradually weaken as prosperity erodes that solidarity, replacing shared purpose with individual ambition and administrative complexity. The transition from desert austerity to urban luxury, in Khaldun's view, sows the seeds of eventual fragility.

Applying this lens to current debates requires careful distinction between symptoms and structural shifts. Military overextension, domestic polarization, and economic strain are not new challenges for any hegemon. What matters is whether these pressures reflect temporary setbacks within a resilient system or evidence of deeper civilizational misalignment—where institutions no longer channel collective energy toward common goals. Some analysts argue that the United States retains significant advantages in innovation, demographic dynamism, and alliance networks that complicate any simple narrative of terminal decline.

The recurrence of decline discourse itself carries weight. When influential voices in media and diplomacy invoke the language of imperial twilight, they shape perceptions that can become self-fulfilling. Allies may hedge their commitments; adversaries may test boundaries; domestic audiences may grow skeptical of international engagement. The psychological dimension of power—confidence, legitimacy, the belief in a shared project—matters as much as material capabilities.

History offers no predetermined endpoints. Empires have reversed course through reform, renewal, and recalibration. The value of frameworks like Ibn Khaldun's lies not in prediction but in diagnosis: prompting reflection on what sustains collective purpose, how institutions adapt to changing circumstances, and whether a society can renew its foundational solidarities without abandoning its core principles. The question for any nation navigating moments of uncertainty is not whether decline is inevitable, but whether it possesses the wisdom to recognize the difference between the end of an era and the beginning of a necessary transformation.


Week in Review: Trump’s China Visit Ends in Quiet Concessions and Diminished Influence

    Friday, May 15, 2026   No comments

The Beijing Freeze


The red carpet has been rolled up in Beijing, and as the diplomatic dust settles, the autopsy of President Trump’s high-stakes visit to China suggests a sobering shift in the global order. While the administration attempted to project strength, the consensus among analysts and Western media is that the trip yielded few concrete victories for Washington, leaving the door wide open for President Xi Jinping to frame the future of U.S.-China relations on his own terms.

Tuesday, August 06, 2024

Is Western civilization on the verge of collapse?

    Tuesday, August 06, 2024   No comments

Human civilization has been a topic for historians, sociologists, philosophers, thinkers, and scientists throughout history. The discussion of the rise and fall of human civilization often leads to a look back at the work of the Muslim thinker Abd al-Rahman Ibn Khaldun who is often described as the originator of the theory of cyclicality of human civilization. Although Ibn Khaldun did not take credit for such idea, and many modern researchers have concluded that that idea was not Ibn Khaldun's original idea, it is nonetheless part of his work and his contribution to the field of social history. Related to this topic, we examine and re-present ideas by a scientist from the modern time, one who used statistical data to predict social trends.

On the New Scientist website, Peter Valentinovich Turchin, a Russian-American scientist specializing in mathematical modeling and statistical analysis, presents his analysis of the decline of Western civilization and its causes by studying mathematical patterns in complex systems and applying them to history. Turchin believes that Western societies are rapidly moving toward the brink of destruction, and that they must make important decisions to avoid this collapse. Here are some of  Turchin's ideas and assertions. 


Is Western civilization on the verge of collapse?
The collapse of civilizations seems to have been a natural and recurring pattern in the development of cultures throughout history, with a period of decline and weakness often following a period of prosperity. The closest examples of this are what happened to the ancient Egyptian Empire, the Roman Empire, the Mayan civilization (one of the ancient civilizations that emerged in the region of Central and South America*), and the Qing Dynasty in China, which experienced periods of prosperity followed by collapse, and this seems to be the inevitable path of any civilization.

Today, Western civilization may face the same fate, as there are clear signs of a variety of crises, including widening economic inequalities, political divisions, violent conflicts, and environmental disasters. Some observers see this as a sign of a “multiple global crises” that pose a serious, perhaps existential, threat to contemporary societies.

More than two decades ago, I predicted that this was the end of things, based on studying mathematical patterns in complex systems and applying them to history. Using this approach, I discovered that violent political upheavals follow certain time cycles, one peaking every 50 years or so, and the other peaking every two or three centuries.

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