Ankara has emerged as a major beneficiary of the collapse of Bashar Assad’s government in Syria last month, following an offensive by rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other Turkish-backed Syrian groups.
Since then, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pledged all forms of support, including military and security assistance, to help the new Syrian caretaker government establish public order in the country under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Julani.
The “Committee to Evaluate the Defense Establishment Budget and Balance of Power,” headed by former National Security Council head Yaakov Nagel, is commonly referred to in Hebrew media as the Nagel Committee or the Nagel Committee.
The committee was established in 2023, before the outbreak of the Israeli war on Gaza, with the aim of making recommendations to the Defense Ministry on potential areas of conflict that Israel could face in the coming years.
The committee said that “the origins of the rebels and their leaders,” some of whom were previously associated with groups such as Al-Qaeda, should not be ignored.
For this reason, we must take into account that Israel may face a new threat emerging in Syria, which in some respects may be no less dangerous than the previous threat. This threat may take the form of a radical Sunni force that also refuses to recognize the existence of Israel,” the committee said.
Moreover, since the Sunni rebels will exercise political power by virtue of their central control in Syria, they may pose a greater threat than the Iranian threat, which has been limited by Israel’s continued actions, as well as the restrictions imposed on Iran by the sovereign Syrian state.
The committee warned that the problem could intensify if the Syrian force effectively becomes a proxy for Turkey, “as part of Turkey’s ambition to restore the Ottoman Empire to its former glory.”
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