Media Review: What will Hezbollah and Iran do and what might happen in the Middle East after Beirut Attacks?

Media Review: What will Hezbollah and Iran do and what might happen in the Middle East after Beirut Attacks?

    Sunday, September 29, 2024   No comments

In about a week, Israel turned electronic devices into weapons, assassinated military and political leaders, and launched arial bombings in Lebanon injuring thousands and killing hundreds, including the leader of the Lebanese group Hezbollah. Media reports about these unprecedented events vary. Governments’ reactions also vary. A review of how the global media and governments reacted will provide some context. The media review is prefaced by some thoughts about what might happen next, given the current events and given the expressed reactions as reported by media outlets. 

Israeli leaders claim that what they did will usher in a new Middle East. Israel has crossed so many red lines to achieve these stated goals: Destroy Hamas, Hezbollah, and all other affiliated groups. But they don't seem to have an answer for what their plan, long term, is for Palestinians. Instead they seem to focus on Iran. That is where it becomes clear that the current military success is just tactical success and it is not hard to achieve given the superior firepower and military technology the state of Israel enjoys, not to mention the unlimited supply of weapons the US government has provided thus far. However, strategically, this could be seen in the very near future as the moment when Israel forced the Iranian leaders to make a serious strategic shift. Here is why.

Iranian leaders have recently described Israeli leaders' actions as a form of "insanity", for crossing all legal, diplomatic, and ethical boundaries. Given that Israel is believed to have a stockpile of nuclear weapons, in the view of Iranian leaders, such "insane" leaders will not hesitate in using nuclear weapons against Iran. After all, some members of the Israeli government have publicly threatened to use nuclear weapons in Gaza.  If Iran did not take that threat seriously in the past, the recent actions must have changed their nuclear posture. 

Recalling that US assessed in June of this year that Iran was a week to a week and a half from breakout point in developing nuclear weapons capability, if Iran does not respond in the way it responded in the past, attacking with rockets and drones, the US and Israel should worry. Their non-response could mean a muted strategic response, whereby the religious authorities rescind earlier directives not to develop nuclear weapons and issue a new one that would speedup the development of nuclear weapons capabilities, at least for deterrence purposes. Such development would place the world on a path towards catastrophe, not just because of the potential for nuclear incident in the Middle East, but globally given that Russia's president just warned that Russia will change its nuclear posture if Western governments-supplied weapons to Ukraine are used to strike deep inside Russia.

Based on some Iranian media coverage, turning communication devices into discriminate weapons and killing religious figures is a form of nuclear strike without using a nuclear weapon. Some Iranians are now convinced that Israel will use nuclear weapons against their country. This is what will create a strategic shift in the region, not wining a war against non-state actors In Gaza and Lebanon without a plan for a political settlement with the Palestinians.

Media review: Understanding Blinken's assessment of when Iran will produce a nuclear bomb and Haniyeh's assassination

Media review: Understanding Blinken's assessment of when Iran will produce a nuclear bomb and Haniyeh's assassination

    Friday, August 16, 2024   No comments

What do media reports and political statements about state-sanctioned assassinations and the war in Gaza mean in the big picture?

 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced, Friday July 19th, that Iran is capable of producing fissile material for a nuclear bomb "within a week or two."

Blinken said during a forum in Colorado (west) that "the current situation is not good. Iran, because of the end of the nuclear agreement, instead of being at least a year away from being able to produce fissile material for a nuclear bomb, is now probably a week or two away from being able to do so."

He explained that Tehran "has not developed a weapon yet, but we are watching this matter closely, of course."

Blinken reiterated that "a week or two" is the estimated time for Iran to be able to produce this fissile material for the purpose of making a nuclear bomb.

He said, "What we have seen in recent weeks and months is that Iran is moving forward with this" nuclear program, reiterating the United States' goal of Tehran never having a nuclear weapon, and "preferring the diplomatic path" to achieve this.

CNN, which reported the same news explained breakout time as being "the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon – “is now probably one or two weeks” as Tehran has continued to develop its nuclear program."

The US government statement was made about a month ago, July 18. If that assessment is correct, not only did Iran has more than two weeks to reach that goal, but also was given more reasons to achieve that goal when Israel carried out an attack inside Iran on 31 July 2024, that killed Hamas leader, Ismael Haniyeh who was attending the inauguration of the new president. Blinken assessment is significant for many reasons, including these two important reasons.

If US assessment is true, and given the recent development, by Wednesday August 14th, Iran would have had two weeks since the assassination, above and beyond the two weeks between Blinken's statement and the assassination, which is more than the time it needs to reach the stage per US government.  This means that, now, Iran is past the breakout time, and would have enough "weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon". 

If Iran does not produce "weapons grade material" then US assessment is flawed about Iran's ability or wrong about its intention to do so. 

In both cases, this recent development is bad news for Western governments because their next news cycle will be to address Iran with the reality of it possessing the nuclear material or having it and choosing not to build a nuclear weapons. In both cases, the nuclear threat would have moved past it being a threat, since it will be either a reality or a non-threat.

In the light of the nuclear development matter, Iran's delayed retaliation against Israel for the assassination of a Palestinian political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, could be the most strategic response. Iran would have used the timeline floated by high-ranking US official about the breakout time to either make it irrelevant or to create more uncertainty about Iran's capabilities.

The delay froze any conversation about Iran's nuclear program and perhaps allowed the Iranian leaders to add the nuclear option just in case Israel decides to retaliate against Iran's retaliation. Iran does not have to announce that they have a nuclear weapon at this point; Iran could adopt Israel’s strategic ambiguity about its nuclear capability and that would produce the same deterring effects as announcing that it has a nuclear weapon.

Taken in a broader context, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, in effect, was the best thing that could have happened for Iran for many reasons.

First, Iran now has the legal and moral ground to act on the principle of self-defense.

Second, by holding official religious prayers for the dead Sunni leader, Iran’s brand of Islam, Shia Islam, is no longer a fringe belief, as it has been portrayed by Saudi Salafists. The fact that Hamas leaders agreed to have two formal prayers, one in Tehran and one in Qatar, is remarkable in the view of experts on Sunni-Shia divide.

Third, Iran’s menu of retaliatory options has become more expansive. Iran could strike inside the 1948 border of Israel, since the attack on Haniyeh took place in Tehran. But Iran could hit targets and military concentrations in Gaza, which will highlight the above stated connections, and refocus attention on the primary objective that most governments around the world want to achieve: a ceasefire in Gaza War. Also, Iran could use a surgical strike against an Israeli leader or a military installation. Lastly, Iran’s leaders could forgo a military tactical strike in favor of a strategic decision to adopt a different nuclear posture and use the assassination as a justification for developing a last resort self-defense nuclear option, something it has been unable to do in the past.

When considered from these advantage points, it is clear that assassination is the least strategic statecraft tool, as it tends to diminish the standing and reputation of the state that rely on assassinations and bolster the strategic position of the state whose sovereignty has been violated--long-term. For these reasons, this event may end up being one of the most significant turning points of the century. 

  

Is NATO expansion a cause for the war in Ukraine?

Is NATO expansion a cause for the war in Ukraine?

    Monday, July 17, 2023   No comments

Prof. Robert G. Rabil and attorney Francois Alam wrote a provocative essay to underscore the danger of ignoring Russia's legitimate national security interests. They concluded that "gripped by a false sense of morality enveloped in hubris and Machiavellian calculations, Washington risks taking the world over the precipice of the abyss. This must be prevented." 

The writers see that after America pledged to the Soviet Union that NATO would not approach its borders in 1990, we see that in 1997 NATO called on Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to join the alliance at the Madrid summit. In a second round in 2004, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia became members of NATO. Then came the US position on the Rose, Orange and Square revolutions in Georgia, in the years 2003, 2004 and 2014, to put Washington and Moscow in violent confrontation.

The authors also believe that, in order to clarify Moscow's position in the current war in Ukraine, it is useful to look at history. The Donbass region has been part of the formation of Russia since Moscow defeated the Mongols in the 15th century. Crimea and its vicinity also had a special place to highlight the power of the tsarist empire. As for Peter the Great, he was the first to establish a Russian naval base on the Sea of Azov. During the reign of Catherine the Great, Moscow established its strategic naval base in Sevastopol, which served as the main base for the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The authors considered that America's insistence on ensuring the victory of Ukraine, and considering America's security and stability as part of the security and stability of Ukraine, as well as providing Kiev with the most dangerous conventional weapons, is nothing but an open invitation to World War III and the mutual destruction of the West and Eurasia, and ignoring the fact that NATO's expansion to the east means besieging Russia in its heartland. And ignoring the attempts of the Russian leadership to dissuade the West from its plan.

The authors conclude by saying that supporting Ukraine's victory in such a blatant way is a great incentive for World War III. They stress that the Americans must stop this madness, and the coalition must realize that the way to peace is not through weapons.

The article is linked here: Americans Must Stop the March to World War III over Ukraine

Personalities and ideologies that drive the conflict between NATO and Russia and their semi-proxy war in Ukraine

Personalities and ideologies that drive the conflict between NATO and Russia and their semi-proxy war in Ukraine

    Saturday, May 27, 2023   No comments

Yesterday, the New York Times revealed that the “Anti-Kremlin Group Involved in Border Raid Is Led by a Neo-Nazi”. The paper reported that the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, one of the two insurgent groups responsible for an armed incursion into Russia this week, is a far-right extremist, German officials and humanitarian groups say.

Russia has stated since the start of the conflict in Ukraine in 2014 that neo-Nazis are behind the campaign to kill and displace ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine; Russian leaders have stated that denazification is a goal of its military operation in Ukraine.

On the same day, the German DER SPIEGEL reported that the “evidence confirms Ukraine's involvement in the Nord Stream bombing.” The newspaper confirmed, Friday, that there is new evidence in the investigation indicating Ukraine's involvement in sabotage operations targeting the "Nord Stream" gas pipelines.

And the newspaper reported that the metadata of e-mail messages, which were sent during the charter of the boat, indicate the involvement of Ukraine, pointing to the finding in the yacht of traces of the explosive “HMX” substance, which is very widespread in the west as in the previous block in the east.

"Der Spiegel" stated that all the evidence "consistent with the assessments of several intelligence services, according to which the perpetrators will be searched for in Ukraine."

And the German newspaper continued: "We now wonder whether what happened could have been carried out by unsupervised commandos, or the Ukrainian intelligence services, and to what extent certain elements of the Ukrainian government apparatus were aware of this."

This comes at a time when police investigations are focusing, in particular, on the "Andromeda" yacht, which is likely to be used to transport explosives, which led to the detonation of the pipelines in September 2022, in the Baltic Sea, according to what was reported by "Agence France Presse".

It is likely that the yacht set off from the port of Rostock, in northern Germany, on September 6, with 6 people on board, including divers and a doctor.

It turned out that one of the passengers on the boat holds a Romanian passport, and he is also a "Ukrainian citizen who previously served in an infantry unit."

And at the beginning of this week, other German media traced the file of the boat rental by a Polish company owned, in fact, by Ukrainians.

Investigators are looking into the evidence of "Ukrainian military services," according to Sudeutsche, RND and VDR TV.

Meanwhile, a German analyst suggested that the transferring the Ukrainian war to Russia is a strategic mistake for which the world will pay.

During the past few days, the Russian-Ukrainian war witnessed a remarkable development when Russia revealed that armed elements had entered its territory through the Ukrainian borders, which means that Ukraine may have begun to transfer the war into Russia.

 

And whether you do or plan to do so, the question posed by German writer and analyst Andreas Kluth in an analysis published by Bloomberg News is: Will this development be a good thing?

 

Russia said that "Ukrainian terrorists" and "fascists" attacked Russian territory. Of course, according to the German analyst, such statements and everything issued by the Russian government can be ignored. It has been said that the armed groups that claimed responsibility for the attacks inside Russian territory consist of Russians who defected from President Vladimir Putin's army and are fighting against him for Ukraine now.

 

One of these groups calls itself the "Russian Freedom Corps", and the other is called the "Russian Volunteer Corps", and includes elements of ultra-nationalists.

 

According to Cloth, there is limited information available about these anti-Putin paramilitary forces, especially as to whether they take orders from Ukraine or operate independently.

 

In the context of the conflict with Russia, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said - in a statement - that the Ukrainian army needs about 48 F-16 combat aircraft to liberate the territories occupied by Russia, according to the ministry's statement.

 

On the other hand, the ministry announced that Canada will complete in the coming weeks the delivery of thousands of small arms and live ammunition that it donated to Ukraine.

 

The Ukrainian National News Agency quoted the Ministry of Defense as saying that the delivery of small arms and ammunition had already begun last April, including machine guns and assault rifles.

 

The ministry stated that in the coming weeks, one million bullets and about 5,000 assault rifles will be delivered.

 

Meanwhile, a spokeswoman for the German Defense Ministry said that the ministry had received a request from Ukraine in the past few days to hand over Taurus cruise missiles. The spokeswoman did not give any other details about the letter, such as the number of missiles that Kiev is requesting.

All these developments suggest that if Ukraine accumulates enough weapons, it will be able to use them anyway it sees fit without any consideration of the limits demanded by the Western nations that donated the weapons. This would take things out of control and can result in catastrophic events unless the conflict is recalibrated. Sensing the urgency to act now before it is late, and the to build on the Chines, Brazilian, and African initiatives to settle the conflict, German leaders decided to reopen a direct line of communication with Russia. Schultz intends to reconnect with Putin at the appropriate time

German Chancellor Olaf Schultz announced today, Friday, that he is ready to return to contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin "at the appropriate time," in light of the interruption of talks between them since last December.

 

Schultz said in an interview published by the newspaper "Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger" on Friday that his last phone call with Putin was a long time ago, but he intends to talk to him again at the appropriate time.

 

Regarding his vision for resolving the conflict, Schultz said that Russia "must understand that the war cannot end with some kind of cold peace that would turn the current front line into a new border between Russia and Ukraine, that would only serve to legitimize Putin's campaign."

 

On the contrary, he added, a just peace must be achieved through the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine.

 

But Schultz refused to say whether this withdrawal should also include Crimea, occupied since 2014, and the German chancellor believed that it was up to Ukraine to determine what it wanted.

Commenting on all these developments, and speaking on behalf of Putin, Dmitry Peskov said that “the degree of involvement of the West in the conflict in Ukraine is growing every day.”

 Peskov noted that the involvement of the West can stretch the conflict in time, but will not change the situation radically. "Russia will continue the special operation and one way or another will ensure its interests," the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation stated.

NATO nations’ support to Ukrainian armed forces reaches another level

NATO nations’ support to Ukrainian armed forces reaches another level

    Thursday, March 30, 2023   No comments

Ukrainian officials have shown off nee weapons systems received from NATO nations, which they said will allow them to launch offensive actions to take back territories now under Russian control.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, released images of new weapons and transport systems handed over by the US. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov, was shown testing the new Strykers and Cougars handed over by USA.

Also, more than 300 powerful DJI Mavic 3T Thermal copters for Ukraine's Defense Forces were transferred to the frontlines, according to Ukrainian forces.

This unprecedented number of weapons transferred to a war zone is likely to push both sides to escalate.

Russian officials have used a strategy of inserting new weapons to the battle field incrementally and in reaction to NATO’s increased involvement, which can lead to a dangerous nuclear confrontation.

These developments bring to the forefront once again the consequences of illegal wars, invasions, and aggressions undertaken by Western states in the last 3 decades. Most recently, the US invasion of Iraq and how that event is unmasking the inequality that permeates the world today. If Iraq has had reliable and powerful allies with nuclear weapons, who decided to take the same actions taken by Western nations to support Ukraine resist an illegal war, what would the outcome have been? What if Russia and China, had used the same logic, and decided to openly provide weapons and military support to Iraq to defend itself? What would that have done to the world order then?

And did Russia exert a level of restraint, voicing their opposition to those illegal wars (Ira, Syria, Yemen, and Libya) without providing any lethal aid to these attacked nations to defend themselves, made them think that if they did the same, attack another nations in the future, the West will do the same (not provide military assistance)?

Since that assumption is proved wrong now, will Russia supply its friends who are under threat of attack from Western nations, like Iran, with all kinds of weapons and technology to pre-empt an attack, or strike military alliances that would allow them to intervene militarily in defense of their allies?

This is how complex the effects of the war in Ukraine and the West’s reaction to it is. With election cycles around the corner in key Westerm nations, it is only  matter of months, not years, to see how these decisions will shape the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's National Security Council, adds another scenario that could trigger a nuclear war: arresting the Russian President in another country

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's National Security Council, adds another scenario that could trigger a nuclear war: arresting the Russian President in another country

    Thursday, March 23, 2023   No comments

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's National Security Council, said on Thursday that any attempt to arrest President Vladimir Putin after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against him would be tantamount to a declaration of war on Russia.

The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin on Friday, charging him with the war crime of forcibly deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine. The court noted that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the matter.

Medvedev, a former president and staunch Putin ally, told Russian media that the ICC was a "worthless legal entity" that had never done anything significant. There are countries that do not recognize the court, including Russia, China and the United States.

Medvedev said that any attempt to arrest Putin would be tantamount to a declaration of war.

And he continued, saying in a video he posted on Telegram, “What will that be? It will be a declaration of war on the Russian Federation... In that case, all our (war) assets, all our missiles, etc.... will fly towards the chancellery office and the Bundestag building," referring to the German parliament.

Russian officials deny war crimes were committed in Ukraine and say the West has ignored what they say are Ukrainian war crimes.

Medvedev described relations with the West as certainly at their worst.

He said nuclear risks were increasing, adding, "Every day that weapons are supplied to Ukraine from abroad brings the world closer to complete nuclear devastation."

Medvedev pointed out that the West now wants to divide Russia into a group of weak countries to steal its huge natural resources, he said.

The West denies it wants to destroy Russia and says it is helping Ukraine defend itself against colonial-style land grabs.

"Ukraine is part of Russia," Medvedev said, adding that most of present-day Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire.

  

On the edge of a nuclear confrontation: Putin warned that Britain's supply of Ukraine with depleted uranium stockpile will force Russia to insert nuclear component, too

On the edge of a nuclear confrontation: Putin warned that Britain's supply of Ukraine with depleted uranium stockpile will force Russia to insert nuclear component, too

    Wednesday, March 22, 2023   No comments

British Foreign Minister James Cleverly denied on Wednesday the existence of a nuclear escalation in the Ukrainian war, after Russian President Vladimir Putin's criticism of London regarding the supply of depleted uranium shells to Ukraine.

Britain confirmed on Monday that it will supply Ukraine with depleted uranium stockpile. The heavy metal is used in the formation of weapons because of its ability to penetrate tanks and armor easily.

But Putin did not discuss the British plans to send such ammunition yesterday, saying that Moscow will have to respond accordingly because such weapons contain "nuclear components".

"There is no nuclear escalation," Cleverly added at the launch ceremony of the British International Technology Strategy. The only country in the world that talks about nuclear issues is Russia. There is no threat to Russia. It's all about helping Ukraine defend itself."

And he continued, "I must make sure that everyone understands that the word uranium mentioned in the context of depleted uranium reserves is not nuclear reserves, but purely conventional reserves."

Britain has been using depleted uranium in anti-armor missiles for decades and does not consider these missiles to have nuclear capabilities. It is also known that Russia has reserves containing depleted uranium.

The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, who is one of LeBoutine's close allies, said on Wednesday that Russia will reject the British decision to supply Belarus with a stockpile containing "real uranium".

He told the journalists in a video clip, "We need to retreat from this madness." As soon as this stockpile explodes at the locations of the Russian forces, there will be a terrible reaction, it will be a lesson for the entire planet.

He added, "Russia does not have depleted uranium, only... we have to slow down the pace of this trend towards escalating the conflict and moving towards a peaceful settlement".

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Britain's decision to supply Ukraine with depleted uranium mines raises the situation to new and dangerous levels.

UN nuke watchdog chief in Iran: Any military attack on a nuclear facility is illegal

UN nuke watchdog chief in Iran: Any military attack on a nuclear facility is illegal

    Sunday, March 05, 2023   No comments

Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi says any military attack on nuclear facilities is outlawed, responding to US and Israeli threats to target those in Iran.

Grossi made the remarks in Tehran Saturday, in a joint news conference with head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami who urged the IAEA to help build trust.

The Biden administration has drawn closer to Israel in recent weeks, conducting large-scale joint military exercises with the regime.

“There are two separate issues in this regard. First, attacks on nuclear power plants have unfortunately become common, and this is due to the war in Ukraine. Second, these attacks have been condemned during the Agency’s public conferences. So I think that the attack on nuclear facilities is totally condemned and illegal,” Grossi said.

He is visiting Tehran after Western reports claimed that IAEA inspectors had found 84% enriched uranium in Iran – an allegation Tehran has rejected.

Eslami told reporters that the Islamic Republic is enriching uranium up to 60% fissile purity.

Grossi said he had “constructive discussions” with Iranian officials that could pave the way for the revival of a landmark 2015 agreement to bring the US back to compliance and remove sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

“By having a constructive discussion, like we are having now, and having good agreements, like I am sure we are going to have, we are going to be paving the way for important agreements,” he said.

Eslami called for the remaining signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), namely France, Britain, Germany along with China and Russia, to fulfill their obligations.

“Three European and some other countries are just focusing on Iran’s JCPOA obligations,” he said. “They too have obligations that they need to adhere to.”

Eslami said, “We came to an arrangement (with Grossi) to define our cooperation within the framework of the safeguards.”

He called on the UN nuclear agency to avoid being swayed by those who aim to hinder cooperation between the two sides.

Reactions

Today, Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized the statements of the Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, in which he asserted that carrying out an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities was "illegal." Netanyahu said that Grossi was a worthy person, but he made inappropriate statements.

Grossi said during his visit to Tehran on Saturday - in response to a journalist's question about the threats of Tel Aviv and Washington to attack Iranian nuclear facilities if they consider that diplomatic means to prevent Tehran from acquiring an atomic bomb have reached a dead end - that "any military attack on nuclear facilities is prohibited." ".

Netanyahu said - at the beginning of the weekly cabinet meeting - that "Israel will continue to defend itself in the face of those who call for its annihilation and prepare for the slaughter of its citizens."

He added that his country "continues to work to confront Iran, through discussions and actions it is conducting around the clock."

The International Atomic Energy Agency issued yesterday from Vienna a joint statement with the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency at the end of Grossi's visit to Tehran.

The statement stated that Iran is ready to continue cooperation with the agency regarding 3 sites that the agency said were undeclared and where traces of uranium were found.

Iran has also indicated its willingness to provide more information and access to it in order to address the remaining safeguards issues.

The joint statement added that Iran will allow the IAEA, when needed, to carry out more verification and supervision activities in nuclear facilities, provided that the method for this is agreed upon during a technical meeting to be held in Tehran soon.

Grossi's visit came as negotiations aimed at reviving the agreement on the Iranian nuclear file concluded in 2015 - officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - reached a dead end.

It also coincides with the start of US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's tour of the Middle East today, Sunday, including Egypt, Jordan and Israel, during which he will hold talks on the Iranian nuclear program.

Medvedev: NATO will provide Ukraine with fighters and maintain them in Poland, entering into a direct war with Russia

Medvedev: NATO will provide Ukraine with fighters and maintain them in Poland, entering into a direct war with Russia

    Thursday, March 02, 2023   No comments

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) against supplying combat aircraft to Ukraine and conducting maintenance in Poland, saying that this is tantamount to entering a direct war against Russia.

Medvedev wrote on the Telegram application today, Thursday, that "anyone who decides to hand over (or repair) such equipment or means of destruction, as well as provide foreign mercenaries and military trainers, should be considered a legitimate military target."

He explained that this may be the only thing preventing “the childish behavior of the West” from supplying planes and long-range weapons to “drug addicts in Kiev.” Medvedev, who is currently deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council, said he did not expect this to continue for a long time "because of the great desire to destroy Russia."

A Translation of Medvedev's full Statement:

Western analysts reluctantly admitted that when NATO specialists teach the Ukronazis how to use their military equipment in combat, this can be seen as direct involvement of NATO in the military conflict on the side of the Ukrainian regime.

Since the 20s of the last century, the understanding has been established that a country can be recognized as a participant in hostilities if, in addition to supplying weapons, it trains personnel to handle it (Briand-Kellogg pact of 1928, Budapest resolution to the 1934 pact).

This is how it is happening today: Canadian and German instructors in the EU are already teaching Ukrainian killers how to handle Leopards.

If we imagine that the NATO aircraft delivered in the future will be serviced by their military on the territory of some overgrown Poland (the only possibility, given the deplorable state of the defense industry in Little Russia), this will be a direct entry of the Atlanticists into the war against Russia with all the ensuing consequences. And all persons making decisions on the supply (repair) of such equipment or weapons, along with foreign mercenaries and military instructors, will have to be considered as a legitimate military target.

Apparently, this is the only thing that keeps Western infantiles from handing over aircraft and long-range weapons to Kyiv drug addicts. Although not the fact that for a long time. The temptation to crush Russia is already very great.

And one more thing - today's events have shown who is really supported in the USA, NATO and the EU. This is not the "freedom-loving people of Ukraine", which does not want to return to the "Moskal scoop". They're just Nazi bastards, terrorist scum who attack civilians by brandishing a stinky yellow-black rag. Let them now be justified in London, Paris, Berlin and Washington.

These are your fosterlings, Messrs. Sunak, Macron, Scholz and Biden! And our attitude towards you is now the same as towards them. Now your countries are participants in the terrorist acts of the Ukrainian regime, and you are direct accomplices of terrorists.

Dmitry Medvedev: Defeating Russia will Trigger Nuclear War

Dmitry Medvedev: Defeating Russia will Trigger Nuclear War

    Wednesday, February 22, 2023   No comments

Known for his biting commentaries, sharp wit, and concise articulation of policy-sourced analysis, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chair of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, unleashed an attack on US President with a chillling warning: Defeating Russia will Trigger Nuclear War. Medvedev published this ominous warning on his favorite social media platform, Telegram, with the title, About two performances. For full context of his Feb. 22 post, we provide a full translation below.

_______________

1. Yesterday there was a Message from the President of Russia to the Federal Assembly, which, among other things, announced the suspension of our participation in START-3. An overdue decision, the inevitability of which I noted last year. The decision prompted by the war declared by the United States and other NATO countries to our country. A decision that will have a huge resonance in the world in general and in the United States in particular. After all, the American establishment has been thinking until now something like this: we will spoil you everywhere and in everything, we will supply gigantic volumes of weapons to the Kiev regime, we will work to defeat Russia, we will limit and destroy you, but strategic security is a separate issue. It is not connected with the general context of relations between the US and Russia. She is almost a sacred cow.

This conclusion is worse than a crime - this is a gross mistake of the Americans. An error generated by their mania grandiosa. Their sense of superiority and impunity. After all, it is obvious to all reasonable forces that if the United States wants the defeat of Russia, then we are on the verge of a world conflict. If the United States wants to defeat Russia, then we have the right to defend ourselves with any weapon, including nuclear. And as Vladimir Putin rightly said: "It is impossible to defeat Russia on the battlefield." It is with this that the suspension (for now) of START-3 is connected. Let the out-of-touch elites in the US think about what they have achieved. We will also observe the reaction of other nuclear powers - NATO members: France and Britain. Their strategic nuclear forces were usually not included in the balance of nuclear warheads and carriers when preparing agreements between the US and the USSR (Russia), but it is high time to do so.

2. Biden addressed the Russian people in front of a crowd of Poles. In fact, he delivered a sermon in the traditional messianic key for America, adjusted for senile insanity. Heaped high words about how important it is to defend democracy, and that the US is not going to attack Russia. It looked dishonest and ridiculous. Who is this strange grandfather, broadcasting with a bewildered look from Poland? Why does he appeal to the people of another country at a time when he is full of domestic problems? With what fright should we listen to a politician from a hostile state that exudes hatred for our Motherland? Why should the citizens of Russia trust the leader of the United States, who unleashed the most wars in the 20th and 21st centuries, but reproach us for aggressiveness? A person who directs all his weakening intellectual capabilities only to ensure that Russia suffers a “strategic defeat”.

And further. To paraphrase a famous expression, Biden said in Warsaw: “If Russia stops its invasion, it will end right now. If Ukrainians stop defending themselves, that will be the end of Ukraine.” This is a refined lie. The truth is quite different.

If Russia stops the SMO without achieving victory, Russia will not exist, it will be torn to pieces. If the US stops supplying weapons to the Kyiv regime, the war will end.

On February 24, Medvedev added this:

It's been a year since the special operation has been going on. A year since our servicemen restore order, peace and justice in our land, protect our people and destroy the roots of neo-Nazism. They are heroes.

The whole country helps them, supplying the front with everything necessary.

Victory will be achieved. We all want this to happen as soon as possible. And that day will come. We will return our territories and reliably protect our people, who have suffered during the years of genocide and shelling.

What's next?

Then there will be negotiations, which, I am sure, will become difficult and nervous. First of all, because the formal participants in the negotiations on the part of our enemy are one, and the actual leaders are completely different. And decisions for the Kiev regime will, of course, not be made by some kind of Zelensky, if he is still alive, or his clique. The decision will be made across the ocean by those in whose hands the supply of weapons to Kyiv and the allocation of money to maintain the remains of the Ukrainian economy. The motives of the main enemies of our country are obvious: to weaken Russia as much as possible, to bleed us for a long time. Therefore, they are not interested in ending the conflict. But sooner or later, according to historical laws, they will do it. And then there will be an agreement. Naturally, without fundamental agreements on real borders or on a new Helsinki Pact that ensures security in Europe. Just some kind of agreement.

Then, most likely, no less difficult time will begin. Exhausting months and years of confrontation, tantrums and rudeness on the part of those who will manage the stub that remains of Ukraine. Their fate is unenviable. They will not be able to recognize the results of the SVO without the risk of being executed on the same day. The nationalists will continue to control the powerful camarilla, because none of them have any other ideology than Bandera's neo-Nazism. Recognition of defeat for them is like death. Therefore, the ideology of “something to win” can remain for a long time.

And at some point, the new bloody boys, backed to the wall by once again unbelted Bandera, who call themselves the legal Ukrainian authorities, will again provoke a world conflict. It doesn't matter - on the eve of the elections or just on the next Maidan.

This cannot be allowed.

Therefore, it is so important to achieve all the goals of a special military operation. Push the borders of threats to our country as far as possible, even if these are the borders of Poland. Destroy neo-Nazism to the ground. In order not to waste time later on catching the remnants of Bandera gangs in the Little Russian forests. So that the world will find the long-awaited peace.

 

Dmitry Medvedev Bio:

Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev graduated from the Faculty of Law of Leningrad State University in 1987 and completed his post-graduate studies at Leningrad State University in 1990. Holds a PhD in law and the title of associate professor.

Medvedev is a Russian politician who has been serving as the deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia since 2020. Medvedev also served as the president of Russia between 2008 and 2012 and as the prime minister of Russia between 2012 and 2020.