US Diplomats warn Biden: We are losing support of Arabs for a generation

US Diplomats warn Biden: We are losing support of Arabs for a generation

    Friday, November 10, 2023   No comments

In a sign that even if Israel were to win this battle in Gaza, the US will end up losing the war for minds and hearts in the world for generations to come. This possibility is now being expressed by US diplomats from around the world, especially the fragile Arab world.

The US embassy in Oman sent a diplomatic cable to the White House this week warning that President Joe Biden's unwavering support for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in Gaza “is losing us Arab publics for a generation.”

“We are losing badly on the messaging battlespace,” the cable drafted by the second-highest US official in Muscat reads, according to CNN. It adds that US support for Israel’s actions is seen “as material and moral culpability in what [Arabs] consider to be possible war crimes.”

The cable was sent to the White House’s National Security Council, the CIA, and the FBI.

Anger has been growing across the Arab world against the US for its role in arming, financing, and protecting Israel since the start of the war in Gaza last month. US embassies across the region have become targets for angry protesters, while US bases in Iraq and Syria have been bombed dozens of times over the past three weeks.

This week, US ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea was forced to cancel a scheduled visit to Dar al-Fatwa to meet with the Grand Mufti of the Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, due to widespread anger at her presence.

Similarly, US State Secretary Antony Blinken faced a cold welcome during his visit to multiple nations in West Asia earlier this month, as diplomats urged the senior US official on the need to stop the genocide unfolding in Gaza.

In Washington, the situation is reportedly just as critical, with State Department staffers harshly criticizing the White House's stance in a recent dissent memo.

[The gap between the US private and public messaging] contributes to regional public perceptions that the United States is a biased and dishonest actor, which at best does not advance, and at worst harms, US interests worldwide,” the memo, leaked to POLITICO, reads.

“We must publicly criticize Israel’s violations of international norms such as failure to limit offensive operations to legitimate military targets,” it adds. “When Israel supports settler violence and illegal land seizures or employs excessive use of force against Palestinians, we must communicate publicly that this goes against our American values so that Israel does not act with impunity.”

The internal strife comes as Biden faces a significant dip in popularity ahead of next year's elections, as recent opinion polls show he is trailing behind former president Donald Trump in five of the six most crucial battleground states.

Furthermore, tens of thousands of protesters have continuously taken to the streets of multiple cities in the US over the past month to demand that the president call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

Amir Abdullahian after meeting Ibn Salman in Jeddah: Our talks were frank and fruitful--The Saudi Crown Prince after the meeting: a review of ways to develop relations

Amir Abdullahian after meeting Ibn Salman in Jeddah: Our talks were frank and fruitful--The Saudi Crown Prince after the meeting: a review of ways to develop relations

    Friday, August 18, 2023   No comments

Today, the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, received the Iranian Foreign Minister, Hussein Amir Abdullahian, in the city of Jeddah, in the first meeting of the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia with Iranian officials since the resumption of relations between the two regional powers last March.

Abdullahian began a one-day visit to Saudi Arabia, before Saudi and Iranian officials confirmed that he would meet the crown prince on Friday. The Saudi Foreign Ministry said that the crown prince and the Iranian minister reviewed relations "and future opportunities for cooperation between the two countries and ways to develop them." They also discussed "developments in the situation on the regional and international arenas, and the efforts exerted towards them." The Iranian News Agency (IRNA) said that it was the first time that a high-ranking Iranian official had met the Saudi crown prince. Amir Abdullahian is accompanied on his visit to Riyadh by the new Iranian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Ali Reza Enayati, according to the same agency.

The Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdullahian, met the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, in the Saudi city of Jeddah.

And the Saudi Press Agency, "SPA", stated that Prince Abdullahian and Ibn Salman discussed future opportunities for cooperation between their two countries and ways to develop them, adding that they "discussed developments in regional and international situations, and efforts made towards them."

After the meeting, the Iranian foreign minister said that the meeting was "frank, fruitful and useful," in which "it was stressed that security and development are everyone's right."

Amir Abd Allahian stressed that "the issue of Palestine and Jerusalem is the focus of issues in the Islamic world," noting that "relations must be developed to serve the region."

He added, "The Saudi Crown Prince sent his greetings to the Leader of the Revolution and the Islamic Republic, Sayyed Ali Khamenei."

Likewise, the Iranian Foreign Ministry quoted, in a statement, the Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman: "These meetings have a fundamental impact on developing and consolidating bilateral and multilateral relations."

She added that the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia "considered the meeting of the leaders of the two countries very important," pointing out that he confirmed his invitation to President Ibrahim Raisi to visit the Kingdom.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry also stated that bin Salman stressed that relations with Tehran are "strategic," noting that the kingdom "enjoys serious determination in this context."

 The meeting was attended by the Iranian ambassador to Riyadh, Ali Reza Enayati. As for the Saudi side, the Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan, attended.

Yesterday, Thursday, Amir Abdollahian arrived in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, and the visit focused on bilateral relations, and regional and international issues, according to what was reported by the Iranian state TV, "Irib".

The Iranian Foreign Minister held a joint press conference with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan, and Amir Abdullahian said that the two sides affirmed "the determination to strengthen and develop relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in all fields."

Amir Abdollahian added that the idea of holding a regional dialogue at the level of the Gulf region had been proposed, "in continuation of the previous talks with Saudi Arabia."

The Iranian minister said, "We are extending a hand of cooperation to neighboring countries, and we are now pursuing a correct path in improving relations with these countries," expressing his hope that "the idea of achieving security and development in the region cannot be divided."

For his part, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said that he had assured his Iranian counterpart "the kingdom's keenness to activate previous agreements between the two countries, especially those related to security and economic aspects."

The Saudi foreign minister also stressed the importance of "raising the level of cooperation and coordination between the two countries."

Amir Abdullahian's visit, the first by an Iranian foreign minister in more than 10 years, comes two months after Ibn Farhan's visit to Tehran, which was the first by a Saudi foreign minister since 2006, where they held talks on security, economy, tourism and transportation issues.

And last week, the Saudi embassy in Tehran resumed its activities, according to Iranian official media, while Riyadh did not confirm this, or name an ambassador to Tehran.

Iranian media attributed the delay in reopening the Saudi embassy to the poor condition of the building, which was damaged during the 2016 demonstrations, after the Saudi authorities executed the Shiite cleric, Sheikh Nimr Nimr.

After the two countries agreed to resume diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies, with Chinese mediation, Iran reopened its embassy in Riyadh on June 6.

Tehran appointed its former ambassador to Kuwait, Ali Reza Enayati, as its new ambassador to Riyadh. This week, Amir Abdollahian told reporters that Enayati would accompany him on his trip to Saudi Arabia, "to officially begin his duties."

Two days ago, Enayati confirmed that Tehran is looking forward to consolidating the economic component in bilateral relations with Riyadh, noting that the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia "will open many horizons" for the two countries and the region.

Amir Abdullahian: Ibn Salman accepted Iran's invitation to visit her...and the region entered a new phase

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said, during his return to Tehran from Riyadh, that Iran had invited Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to visit it, "and he accepted the invitation, and he will plan it at the appropriate time."

He also pointed out that King Salman bin Abdulaziz also invited President Ibrahim Raisi to visit Riyadh, "and the latter accepted the invitation and will fulfill it at the appropriate time."

The Iranian minister also added that Saudi Arabia affirmed its different vision from the past, and expressed "its willingness to open a new page in relations between Tehran and Riyadh."

He added, "The region has entered a new phase of cooperation, because there is a consensus that the region can progress and develop by relying on itself."

He stated that it was agreed with the Saudis "to enhance cooperation in various economic, commercial and tourism fields in the private and public sectors."

He stated that bin Salman had taken a decision according to which he asked Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, "to take initial steps to prepare a framework for a document for long-term cooperation between the two countries, so that it can be signed during the visits of senior officials."

In retreating from the threat of military intervention to restore the elected government.. ECOWAS: Dialogue with the leaders of the Nigerien coup is the "basic" of efforts to resolve the crisis

In retreating from the threat of military intervention to restore the elected government.. ECOWAS: Dialogue with the leaders of the Nigerien coup is the "basic" of efforts to resolve the crisis

    Thursday, August 10, 2023   No comments

The leaders of West African countries stressed Thursday that they will make negotiations with the military leaders who seized power in Niger the "base" of their efforts to defuse the crisis, in retreat from the threat of military intervention to restore the elected government.

"We prioritize diplomatic negotiations and dialogue as the basis of our approach," said Nigerian President Paula Tinubu, who is chairing the emergency summit of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in Abuja.

The military council in Niger forms a new transitional government that includes 21 ministers

Today, Thursday, the head of the military council in Niger, Abd al-Rahman Tiani, signed a decree forming a new transitional government, local media reported.

Actoniger reported that Tiani signed the decree forming the transitional government yesterday, Wednesday, which is composed of 21 ministers and includes a small number of military personnel.

On July 27, soldiers in the Nigerien army announced, on state television, the dismissal of President Mohamed Bazoum, his detention in his residence, the closure of borders and the imposition of a curfew, explaining that they had decided to put an end to the current regime, after the deterioration of the security situation and economic mismanagement in the country.

In response to the military council's move, the Economic Community of West African States "ECOWAS" announced the imposition of sanctions on Niger, including closing its airspace and suspending trade exchanges with it.

For his part, Tianyi rejected these punishments, describing them as illegal, unfair and inhumane.

In early August, the participants in an emergency meeting of the Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Economic Community of West African States, held in Abuja, adopted a plan in the event of a military intervention in Niger.

After mobilizing a force of 25,000 ECOWAS soldiers for possible intervention in Niger, the military council refused to receive the delegation of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the African Union and the United Nations.

Coinciding with the announcement of the African crowd of a possible military intervention, the leaders of the military council announced the appointment of Ali Mahman Lamine Zain, an economist and former minister of finance, as prime minister in the country after Bazoum was dismissed due to his allowing foreign interventions in the country.

The military council announced the cancellation of a number of military cooperation agreements with France, in addition to ending the missions of the country's ambassadors to France, the United States, Nigeria and Togo.

The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented on the military council's decision to cancel the agreements concluded with it, stressing that it "only recognizes the previous authorities of Muhammad Bazoum" and rejects the decision.

It is noteworthy that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced in a statement that his country's government had decided to freeze some "foreign assistance programs" from which the government of Niger benefits.

Likewise, the United States and ECOWAS confirmed that they hoped to reach a diplomatic solution in Niger that would put things back in order.

It is noteworthy that both Mali and Burkina Faso supported the Transitional Military Council in Niger, and declared clearly that "any intervention by the Economic Community of West African States to return Bazoum to power would be tantamount to declaring war on them."

In the same context, Russia believed that foreign intervention would not allow a solution to the crisis in Niger, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that "it is unlikely that the intervention of forces from outside the region will allow the situation to improve."

It is noteworthy that the countries of the European Union began yesterday, Wednesday, to prepare to impose the first sanctions on members of the military council in Niger.

The situation in Niger raises concerns about the future of the country and the region, at a time when it faces increasing security challenges due to the threat of armed groups growing in the Sahel region. It also raises concern in the West, especially France and the United States of America, because the ousted president is considered Paris's first man in the African Sahel countries.

Kazakhstan, and soon Russia, increase export of agricultural goods through Iran via the INSTC

Kazakhstan, and soon Russia, increase export of agricultural goods through Iran via the INSTC

    Tuesday, August 08, 2023   No comments

In another sign of activating alternative paths for global trade with the uncertainty in the Black Sea due to the conflict in in Ukraine, Kazakhstan decided to export its agricultural goods across the Persian Gulf through the Islamic Republic of Iran to open a new direct route to free waters, which starts from the port of Korik in Kazakhstan, then the Iranian port of Amirabad overlooking the Caspian Sea, and then to the port of Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf.

The Iran route reduces the duration of the transfer of goods through presence in the ports of the Emirates, India, Pakistan, the Far East and the coasts of East Africa, in addition to that this route can export Kazakh goods to the European Union.

Meanwhile, the Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, Srik Jumangarin, held talks with the head of an Emirati shipping and transport company, to employ joint investments for this goal.

This is a major development, which practically, could allow Russia to export its goods and services through this route directly or through Kazakhstan, bypassing the risk associated with the Black Sea trade route. However, this North-South route has been in the making for over two decades, and only now it is showing its potential in a new geopolitical climate.

What is the International North–South Transport Corridor—INSTC?

It was first conceived in the early 2000’s. The idea was to build a transport corridor linking Russia’s Baltic Sea coast to India’s western ports in the Arabian Sea via Iran. Russia, India and Iran signed preliminary agreements to develop the 7,200-km-long International North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) in 2002. NSTC consists of sea, road, and rail transportation systems with investments for building the railroads and truck highways coming mostly from India, Russia, and Iran. 

The INSTC's western route passes through Russia, South Caucasus, and Iran. The middle axis reaches India through Saint Petersburg – Astrakhan – Caspian Sea – North and South ports of Iran (Amirabad, Anzali, Chabahar, and Astara ports). The eastern axis passes through Russia-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan-Iran.

Three years later, Azerbaijan signed up for the project. This agreement was eventually ratified by 13 countries — India, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Oman, Tajikistan, Turkey and Ukraine.

Now the NSTC is allowing states close to its main path to benefit from this increased North-South activities created by the sanctions imposed on Russia and the new sanctions imposed on Iran after the collapse of the Nuclear Deal. Iran stands to benefit most from this initiative, which, together with China’s BRI project will create new networks I the region and east Africa.

Khamenei: There is no harm in concluding an agreement with the West and not heading towards building a nuclear weapon, not because of our fear of enemies, but rather because of our faith

Khamenei: There is no harm in concluding an agreement with the West and not heading towards building a nuclear weapon, not because of our fear of enemies, but rather because of our faith

    Monday, June 12, 2023   No comments

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday it is possible to reach an agreement with the West over Tehran's nuclear activities if the country's nuclear infrastructure remains intact, at a time of disagreement between Iran and the United States over reviving the 2015 nuclear deal.

Indirect talks between Tehran and Washington to revive the deal with six major powers hit an impasse in September, with both sides accusing each other of making unreasonable demands.

Khamenei's cautious approval comes days after both Tehran and Washington denied a report that they were close to an interim agreement under which Iran would curb its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief.

"There is nothing wrong with the agreement (with the West), but the infrastructure of our nuclear activities should not be touched," Khamenei was quoted as saying by state media.

The 2015 agreement limited Iran's uranium enrichment activity and made it difficult for Tehran to develop nuclear weapons, in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions.

In 2018, then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement and re-imposed sanctions that crippled the Iranian economy, prompting Tehran to move gradually to not abide by the provisions of the agreement stipulated. This renewed US, European and Israeli fears that Iran might seek to obtain an atomic bomb.

Khamenei said, repeating his country's official position, that the Islamic Republic has never sought to build a nuclear bomb.

And he added, “Talking about Tehran’s nuclear weapons is a lie, and they (the West) know that. We don't want to build nuclear weapons because of our religious faith, otherwise they wouldn't have been able to stop it."

Khamenei, who has the supreme say in all state affairs including the nuclear program, added that Iran's Atomic Energy Organization should continue to work with the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency "within a framework of guarantees".

However, Khamenei called on the Iranian authorities "not to bow to the exaggerated and wrong demands of the International Atomic Energy Agency," adding that a law passed by the Iranian parliament in 2020 must be respected.

Under the law, Tehran suspends IAEA inspections of Iranian nuclear sites and ramps up uranium enrichment if sanctions are not lifted.

At the end of May, the UN body reported “progress” in cooperation with Iran, while noting that the Islamic Republic had significantly increased its stockpile of enriched uranium in recent months.

In addition, the International Atomic Energy Agency decided to close the file on the presence of nuclear materials in one of the three undeclared sites, after this led to strained relations between the two parties for a long time.

On Sunday, Khamenei urged those responsible for the nuclear program to "not succumb to pressure... baseless allegations," without providing further details.

He said, "There is no problem in signing an agreement with the agency, but the infrastructure of the Iranian nuclear industry should not be harmed."

These statements come at a time when press reports reported indirect contacts between Iran and the United States to resume negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement that was concluded in 2015, and the United States withdrew from it during the era of former President Donald Trump in 2018.

This agreement was aimed at restricting Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions.

And Monday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reiterated that President Joe Biden's administration will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear bomb, which Iran denies seeking.

In the context, Khamenei said, “We do not want to reach nuclear weapons on the basis of our Islamic principles. Otherwise, they would not have been able to prevent us from obtaining this weapon, just as they have not been able to stop our nuclear developments so far.

"This is a good law... it must be respected and not violated when giving access to (the International Atomic Energy Agency) sites and information," Khamenei said.

Last month, the IAEA reported limited progress on issues at issue with Iran, including the reinstallation of some monitoring equipment originally installed under the 2015 deal and ordered removed by Tehran last year.

A joint Gulf-American statement issued after the joint ministerial meeting of the strategic partnership between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and the United States

A joint Gulf-American statement issued after the joint ministerial meeting of the strategic partnership between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and the United States

    Friday, June 09, 2023   No comments

A joint Gulf-American statement issued after the joint ministerial meeting of the strategic partnership between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and the United States stressed the need to commit to reaching a political solution in Syria.

The Foreign Ministers of the Cooperation Council and the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, held the meeting on Wednesday evening, June 7, under the chairmanship of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Sultanate of Oman, Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi, who is the chairman of the current session of the meeting.

The ministerial meeting, which was held at the headquarters of the General Secretariat in Riyadh, discussed a package of regional issues, including Syria.

On the Syrian issue: The statement affirmed commitment to reaching a political solution to the Syrian crisis in a way that preserves Syria's unity and sovereignty, and meets the aspirations of its people in line with UN Security Council Resolution No. 2254. The ministers welcomed the Arab efforts to resolve the crisis in a step-for-step manner in accordance with Security Council resolution. 2254, as agreed upon during the Amman Consultative Meeting of the Arab Ministerial Contact Group on Syria on May 1, 2023.

In the joint statement, the ministers reaffirmed their support for the US and coalition forces working to achieve the defeat of ISIS in Syria, and condemned all actions that threaten the safety and security of these forces.

The two sides also stressed the need to create safe conditions for the safe, dignified and voluntary return of refugees and internally displaced persons in accordance with the standards of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, and the importance of providing the necessary support to Syrian refugees and the countries that host them.

The statement welcomed the UN Secretary-General's call to renew the Security Council's mandate for a period of 12 months to operate the cross-border mechanism, and expressed support for the inclusion of all currently open border crossings (Bab al-Hawa, Bab al-Salam and al-Rai) in a Security Council resolution next month.

The two sides also discussed the issue of “arbitrarily detained and missing persons,” as mentioned in the “Oman” statement and Security Council Resolution “2254,” and in coordination with all concerned parties.

The following is the text of the statement:

The foreign ministers of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf held the joint ministerial meeting of the strategic partnership between the countries of the Cooperation Council and the United States of America, chaired by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Sultanate of Oman - the current session chairman - Badr bin Hamad bin Hamoud Al-Busaidi, at the headquarters of the General Secretariat in Riyadh, with the participation of: Member of the Council of Ministers and Minister of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Shakhbout bin Nahyan Al Nahyan, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for Political Affairs in Bahrain Dr. Sheikh Abdullah bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah, Prime Minister and Minister The Foreign Ministry of the State of Qatar, Sheikh Muhammad bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the State of Kuwait, Sheikh Salem Abdullah Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, the Secretary of State of the United States of America Anthony Blinken, and the Secretary-General of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, Jassem Muhammad Al-Budaiwi.

On Wednesday, June 7, 2023, the GCC foreign ministers met at the headquarters of the General Secretariat of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, the Secretary of State of the United States of America Anthony Blinken, and the Secretary-General of the Cooperation Council Jassem Muhammad Al-Budaiwi, to emphasize the strategic importance of the historical relations between the two sides.

The two sides affirmed their joint commitment to build on the achievements of the previous ministerial meetings and the Jeddah Summit held on July 16, 2022, by strengthening consultation, coordination and cooperation in all fields.

The two sides focused on the ambitious and growing strategic partnerships between the United States and the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf and its member states, aimed at enhancing peace, security, stability, integration and economic prosperity in the Middle East.

The two sides also stressed the importance of joint efforts to work to reduce escalation in the region, stressing their joint commitment to supporting diplomacy to achieve these goals. The two sides also agreed on the importance of infrastructure projects in enhancing integration and interdependence in the region, and contributing to stability and prosperity at the regional level.

The two sides stressed the importance of supporting navigational rights and freedoms and collective efforts to address threats to the security of ships through the waterways in the region.

The Ministers also stressed the importance of countering terrorism and violent extremism around the world, and welcomed the upcoming Ministerial Meeting of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, which will be held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on June 8, 2023.

Secretary Blinken affirmed the United States' permanent commitment to the security of the region, and its awareness of the vital role of this region in the global economy and international trade.

Iran:

The Cooperation Council and the United States of America affirmed their commitment to freedom of navigation and maritime security in the region, and their determination to confront any aggressive or illegal acts at sea or anywhere else that would threaten shipping lanes, international trade and oil installations in the GCC states.

The two sides affirmed their support for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and renewed their call on Iran for full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The Ministers welcomed the decision of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic relations, stressing the importance of countries in the region adhering to international law, including the United Nations Charter.

Yemen:

The two sides stressed the importance of the ongoing peace efforts led by the United Nations in Yemen after the April 2022 armistice and the calm that resulted from it, and expressed their deep appreciation for the efforts made by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Sultanate of Oman, the United Nations envoy and the United States envoy in this regard. The two sides expressed their hope to see a comprehensive Yemeni-Yemeni political process leading to a permanent end to the conflict, responding to Yemenis' calls for justice, accountability for human rights violations and abuses, and putting the country on the path to recovery.

The two sides also affirmed their support for Yemen's sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity, and their support for the Presidential Leadership Council in Yemen and urged the Houthis to seize this opportunity and take advantage of the past 14 calmer and more stable months to provide relief to millions of Yemenis.

The ministers stressed the importance of continuing to meet the humanitarian needs of the people in all regions of Yemen and to provide economic and development support throughout the country. The two sides also affirmed their support for the efforts led by the United Nations to confront the environmental and economic threat posed by the Safer oil tanker off the coast of Yemen.

The Palestinian issue and Israel:

The two sides reaffirmed their commitment to reaching a just, lasting and comprehensive peace in the Middle East in accordance with the two-state solution, based on the 1967 borders and any agreement between the two sides on land swaps, in accordance with internationally recognized standards and the Arab Peace Initiative.

The two sides also stressed the need to refrain from all unilateral measures that undermine the two-state solution, raise the level of tension, and preserve the historical status quo in the holy places in Jerusalem, stressing the special role of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in this regard.

The Ministers also expressed their appreciation for Egypt's decisive role in mediating between the armed factions in Gaza and Israel during the recent hostilities. The Ministers also stressed the importance of their support for the Palestinian Authority and the improvement of the daily lifestyle of the Palestinians through humanitarian aid and efforts to support the Palestinian economy. Both sides reaffirmed their support for the Palestinian Authority.

Syrian:

On the Syrian issue, the two sides reaffirmed their commitment to reaching a political solution to the Syrian crisis in a way that preserves Syria's unity and sovereignty, meets the aspirations of its people, and is consistent with international humanitarian law, in line with UN Security Council Resolution No. 2254 (2015). In this regard, the ministers welcomed the Arab efforts to resolve the crisis in a step-by-step manner in accordance with Security Council Resolution 2254, as agreed upon during the Amman consultative meeting of the Arab Ministerial Contact Group on Syria on May 1, 2023.

The Ministers reaffirmed their support for the US and Coalition forces working to defeat ISIS in Syria, and condemned all actions that threaten the safety and security of these forces.

The two sides stressed the need to create safe conditions for the safe, dignified and voluntary return of refugees and internally displaced persons in accordance with the standards of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, and the importance of providing the necessary support to Syrian refugees and the countries that host them. The two sides also reaffirmed their call for a ceasefire, welcomed the UN Secretary-General's call to renew the Security Council's mandate for 12 months to operate the cross-border mechanism, and expressed support for the inclusion of all currently open border crossings (Bab al-Hawa, Bab al-Salam and al-Rai) in a Security Council resolution to be issued in July. Next.

The two sides also discussed the issue of arbitrarily detained and missing persons - as mentioned in the Amman Declaration and Security Council Resolution 2254, and in coordination with all concerned parties.

Iraq:

The two sides praised the positive and growing partnership between the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf and Iraq, and welcomed the continuous progress in the electrical interconnection project to link Iraq to the electricity network in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The Iraqi people and the region. With the completion of this project, it will provide the energy needed by the Iraqi people, and pave the way for more economic cooperation in the future. The ministers also discussed the importance of civilian-led efforts in Iraq, including economic reforms to ensure that the people of Iraq benefit from the country's natural resources, achieve stability and ensure society recovers from conflict and ISIS violence, and strengthen efforts to prevent terrorist financing and counter ISIS's terrorist narrative, thereby strengthening Iraq's capabilities in the fight against terrorism. The two sides affirmed their support for a secure, stable and fully sovereign Iraq.

Sudan:

The two sides expressed their grave concern about the recent outbreak of fighting in Sudan, and the ministers affirmed the Cooperation Council's support for the diplomatic efforts led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States in Jeddah, to reach an agreement between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces to fully implement a short-term ceasefire agreement, and allow access Humanitarian aid without hindrance. They reaffirmed their support for diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a permanent cessation of hostilities in Sudan. The two sides also affirmed their conviction that there is no military solution to end the conflict, calling on the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces to silence their weapons.

The war in Ukraine:

The Ministers reaffirmed the importance of respecting the principle of sovereignty and international law, including the United Nations Charter, and the obligation to refrain from the use or threat of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. The ministers urged all countries and the international community to intensify their efforts to reach a peaceful solution, end the humanitarian crisis, support refugees, displaced persons and others affected by the war in Ukraine, as well as facilitate the export of grain and other food supplies, and support food security in the affected countries.

The strategic partnership between the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf and the United States:

The ministers affirmed their common determination to contribute to achieving regional security and stability within the framework of the strategic partnership between the GCC and the United States. The Ministers commended the outcomes of the meetings of the Joint Working Groups on Integrated Air and Missile Defense, Maritime Security, and Iran, which were held in Riyadh from February 13 to 15, 2023. They commended the deliberations of the Fourth Trade and Investment Dialogue meeting, which was held on March 9, 2023, in Riyadh. They noted the joint military exercises that took place between their armed forces within the framework of the joint naval forces. The Ministers decided to convene the Joint Working Group on Cyber Security later this year. The ministers stressed the importance of continuing the periodic working groups to discuss defense issues, and decided to hold another round of the joint working groups on integrated air and missile defense and maritime security later this year. The ministers will then discuss the possibility of convening working groups on military readiness, training and streamlining the transfer of vital defense capabilities.

Personalities and ideologies that drive the conflict between NATO and Russia and their semi-proxy war in Ukraine

Personalities and ideologies that drive the conflict between NATO and Russia and their semi-proxy war in Ukraine

    Saturday, May 27, 2023   No comments

Yesterday, the New York Times revealed that the “Anti-Kremlin Group Involved in Border Raid Is Led by a Neo-Nazi”. The paper reported that the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, one of the two insurgent groups responsible for an armed incursion into Russia this week, is a far-right extremist, German officials and humanitarian groups say.

Russia has stated since the start of the conflict in Ukraine in 2014 that neo-Nazis are behind the campaign to kill and displace ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine; Russian leaders have stated that denazification is a goal of its military operation in Ukraine.

On the same day, the German DER SPIEGEL reported that the “evidence confirms Ukraine's involvement in the Nord Stream bombing.” The newspaper confirmed, Friday, that there is new evidence in the investigation indicating Ukraine's involvement in sabotage operations targeting the "Nord Stream" gas pipelines.

And the newspaper reported that the metadata of e-mail messages, which were sent during the charter of the boat, indicate the involvement of Ukraine, pointing to the finding in the yacht of traces of the explosive “HMX” substance, which is very widespread in the west as in the previous block in the east.

"Der Spiegel" stated that all the evidence "consistent with the assessments of several intelligence services, according to which the perpetrators will be searched for in Ukraine."

And the German newspaper continued: "We now wonder whether what happened could have been carried out by unsupervised commandos, or the Ukrainian intelligence services, and to what extent certain elements of the Ukrainian government apparatus were aware of this."

This comes at a time when police investigations are focusing, in particular, on the "Andromeda" yacht, which is likely to be used to transport explosives, which led to the detonation of the pipelines in September 2022, in the Baltic Sea, according to what was reported by "Agence France Presse".

It is likely that the yacht set off from the port of Rostock, in northern Germany, on September 6, with 6 people on board, including divers and a doctor.

It turned out that one of the passengers on the boat holds a Romanian passport, and he is also a "Ukrainian citizen who previously served in an infantry unit."

And at the beginning of this week, other German media traced the file of the boat rental by a Polish company owned, in fact, by Ukrainians.

Investigators are looking into the evidence of "Ukrainian military services," according to Sudeutsche, RND and VDR TV.

Meanwhile, a German analyst suggested that the transferring the Ukrainian war to Russia is a strategic mistake for which the world will pay.

During the past few days, the Russian-Ukrainian war witnessed a remarkable development when Russia revealed that armed elements had entered its territory through the Ukrainian borders, which means that Ukraine may have begun to transfer the war into Russia.

 

And whether you do or plan to do so, the question posed by German writer and analyst Andreas Kluth in an analysis published by Bloomberg News is: Will this development be a good thing?

 

Russia said that "Ukrainian terrorists" and "fascists" attacked Russian territory. Of course, according to the German analyst, such statements and everything issued by the Russian government can be ignored. It has been said that the armed groups that claimed responsibility for the attacks inside Russian territory consist of Russians who defected from President Vladimir Putin's army and are fighting against him for Ukraine now.

 

One of these groups calls itself the "Russian Freedom Corps", and the other is called the "Russian Volunteer Corps", and includes elements of ultra-nationalists.

 

According to Cloth, there is limited information available about these anti-Putin paramilitary forces, especially as to whether they take orders from Ukraine or operate independently.

 

In the context of the conflict with Russia, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said - in a statement - that the Ukrainian army needs about 48 F-16 combat aircraft to liberate the territories occupied by Russia, according to the ministry's statement.

 

On the other hand, the ministry announced that Canada will complete in the coming weeks the delivery of thousands of small arms and live ammunition that it donated to Ukraine.

 

The Ukrainian National News Agency quoted the Ministry of Defense as saying that the delivery of small arms and ammunition had already begun last April, including machine guns and assault rifles.

 

The ministry stated that in the coming weeks, one million bullets and about 5,000 assault rifles will be delivered.

 

Meanwhile, a spokeswoman for the German Defense Ministry said that the ministry had received a request from Ukraine in the past few days to hand over Taurus cruise missiles. The spokeswoman did not give any other details about the letter, such as the number of missiles that Kiev is requesting.

All these developments suggest that if Ukraine accumulates enough weapons, it will be able to use them anyway it sees fit without any consideration of the limits demanded by the Western nations that donated the weapons. This would take things out of control and can result in catastrophic events unless the conflict is recalibrated. Sensing the urgency to act now before it is late, and the to build on the Chines, Brazilian, and African initiatives to settle the conflict, German leaders decided to reopen a direct line of communication with Russia. Schultz intends to reconnect with Putin at the appropriate time

German Chancellor Olaf Schultz announced today, Friday, that he is ready to return to contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin "at the appropriate time," in light of the interruption of talks between them since last December.

 

Schultz said in an interview published by the newspaper "Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger" on Friday that his last phone call with Putin was a long time ago, but he intends to talk to him again at the appropriate time.

 

Regarding his vision for resolving the conflict, Schultz said that Russia "must understand that the war cannot end with some kind of cold peace that would turn the current front line into a new border between Russia and Ukraine, that would only serve to legitimize Putin's campaign."

 

On the contrary, he added, a just peace must be achieved through the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine.

 

But Schultz refused to say whether this withdrawal should also include Crimea, occupied since 2014, and the German chancellor believed that it was up to Ukraine to determine what it wanted.

Commenting on all these developments, and speaking on behalf of Putin, Dmitry Peskov said that “the degree of involvement of the West in the conflict in Ukraine is growing every day.”

 Peskov noted that the involvement of the West can stretch the conflict in time, but will not change the situation radically. "Russia will continue the special operation and one way or another will ensure its interests," the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation stated.

Egypt and Iran will exchange ambassadors this year as part of a process mediated by the Sultanate of Oman and an upcoming meeting between Sisi and Raisi

Egypt and Iran will exchange ambassadors this year as part of a process mediated by the Sultanate of Oman and an upcoming meeting between Sisi and Raisi

    Wednesday, May 24, 2023   No comments

Egyptian officials told an Emirati newspaper today, Wednesday, that Egypt and Iran are expected to exchange ambassadors within months, as part of a process brokered by the Sultanate of Oman to normalize relations between the two regional powers.

Two officials told the English-language The National that a meeting had been agreed in principle between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Iranian counterpart, Ibrahim Raisi.

They said the meeting was likely to take place by the end of the year.

The news comes days after Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq paid a two-day visit to Egypt, where he discussed with Sisi including Cairo's relations with Tehran, according to the officials.

Oman enjoys close relations with Islamic and non-Arab Iran, and has often assumed mediating roles in regional disputes or in disputes pitting Tehran against other governments, in the Arab world and in the West.

For its part, Iran has said it wants better relations with Egypt, the most populous Arab country. However, the Egyptian government has been silent on relations with Iran, but regional media have been reporting on an imminent improvement in relations in recent weeks.

The two officials said normalizing relations with Iran guarantees Tehran's goodwill with regard to Cairo's efforts to forge closer economic and trade ties with countries such as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, where it wields significant influence.

According to the newspaper, mid-level diplomats and intelligence officials from Iran and Egypt have held closed-door consultations on normalizing relations since last March. The latest round of these talks was held earlier this month in Baghdad, whose government has close ties with Tehran.

And she continued: “In addition to bilateral relations, the talks touched on reducing tension in places where Iran exercises great influence, such as Yemen, Lebanon and Syria, by supporting allied Shiite governments or armed groups.”

She believed that "the thaw in relations between Cairo and Tehran would add a new layer to the ongoing regional realignment that is changing the political landscape in the region."

Saudi Arabia, for example, has agreed to restore diplomatic relations with Iran that were severed in 2016, thus removing a major source of tension in the Middle East. Egypt and Turkey are also working to resolve a decade-long dispute, and in the actual direction of normalizing relations.

The eight-year war in Yemen, where Iran supported Ansar Allah against the internationally recognized government, which is backed by a Saudi-led military coalition, has subsided dramatically amid diplomatic moves to end the conflict.

Syria returned to the League of Arab States this month, amidst a great Iranian welcome. President Bashar al-Assad attended the Arab Summit in Jeddah last week for the first time in 12 years.

Tehran's relations with Cairo have been fraught since the overthrow of Iran's Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

Pahlavi died in Egypt in 1980 and was buried with other members of his family, causing tension between Cairo and Tehran.

Relations deteriorated further when the Iranian government named a street in Tehran after Khaled Islambouli, the Egyptian army officer who led a team of assassins who assassinated former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat during a 1981 military parade in Cairo.

Relations also increased tension over what Cairo considers Iranian interference in the internal affairs of Arab countries such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.

Unlike Saudi Arabia, which closed its embassy in Tehran in 2016, Egypt has maintained diplomatic representation in Iran since the Islamic Revolution. However, it has only the chargé d'affaires who manages its mission in Tehran. Iran on the other hand has a functioning embassy in Cairo.

Related to this development, the Omani news agency announced today, Wednesday, that the Sultan of Oman, Haitham bin Tariq, will visit Iran, next Sunday, on a two-day official visit, accompanied by a high-ranking official delegation.

The agency stated, in a statement, that the visit comes within the framework of strengthening the friendship ties between the Sultanate of Oman and the Islamic Republic of Iran, consolidating fruitful relations and good neighborliness between them, and in response to the invitation extended to him by the Iranian President, Ibrahim Raisi, to Sultan Haitham bin Tariq.

The statement added that the visit contributes to consultation and coordination between the two leaderships to discuss various developments on the regional and international arenas.

At the beginning of this month, the Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Muhammad Bagheri, met the Sultan of Oman, and held a round of talks with him.

Iranian media reported that the Sultan of Oman told Bagheri, "The level of cooperation in various defense and military fields between the two countries' armed forces must be raised."

It is noteworthy that Tehran and Muscat have close relations, and they signed 8 memorandums of understanding and 4 cooperation programs last May, during Raisi's official visit to Oman.

During that visit, 12 cooperation documents were signed in the fields of energy, politics, transport, diplomatic cooperation, trade and economic relations, science, the environment and sports. A joint statement was issued by both sides at the end of the visit.

After his return to Tehran, Raisi confirmed that the positions of Iran and the Sultanate of Oman are "remarkably consistent on many issues," noting that "the good relations between Iran and Oman enhance regional cooperation."

With Truce or Ceasefire remain elusive in Sudan, Clashes continue between the army and the Rapid Support Forces

With Truce or Ceasefire remain elusive in Sudan, Clashes continue between the army and the Rapid Support Forces

    Sunday, April 30, 2023   No comments

Today, Sunday, the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan announced the extension of the truce for 72 hours, in response to international, regional and local calls.

The statement issued by the official spokesman for the Rapid Support Forces said: "In response to international, regional and local calls, we announce the extension of the humanitarian truce for a period of 72 hours, starting from midnight tonight, in order to open humanitarian corridors and facilitate the movement of citizens and residents, and enable them to fulfill their needs and reach safe areas."

Simultaneously, the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the Rapid Support Forces of carrying out "flagrant and repeated" attacks on the headquarters of diplomatic missions and bodies.

The statement added, "In a flagrant violation of all international norms and treaties, on April 28, these rebel forces attacked the Indonesian embassy," accusing them of stealing a diplomatic vehicle belonging to the embassy.

Witnesses told AFP that clashes took place near the army headquarters in Khartoum, and the city of Omdurman, west of the capital, was bombed.

From southern Khartoum, a witness said, "There is very fierce fighting and heavy shooting in the street every few minutes since early morning."

The arrival of the first aid shipment from the Red Cross by air

On Sunday, the first shipment of humanitarian aid from the Red Cross arrived in the city of Port Sudan, as part of the emergency operations it has been carrying out since the outbreak of fighting in Sudan, according to what officials said in a virtual press conference from Geneva.

A statement from the International Committee of the Red Cross stated that the shipment, which was sent from Amman, weighed eight tons and "contained surgical equipment to support Sudan's hospitals and volunteers of the Sudanese Red Crescent Society who provide medical care to the wounded who were injured during the fighting."

The Red Cross added in the statement that it would "send a second plane carrying additional medical supplies and emergency personnel."

"We were able to fly to Port Sudan from Amman as a medical staff with supplies to deal with war-wounded, enough to stabilize 1,500 wounded," said Patrick Youssef, the ICRC's regional director for Africa, at the press conference.

"We now hope to get them as soon as possible to some of the busiest hospitals in Khartoum," he added.

As the fighting enters its third week, families in the capital, which has a population of about five million, and its suburbs are still suffering from a lack of food, water, electricity, and cash, and many of them are staying at home.

Tens of thousands of people have been displaced internally or to neighboring countries, while several foreign and Arab countries are organizing large-scale evacuations.

International and regional powers called for an end to the escalating violence between the two military leaders, but they refused direct talks and exchanged accusations through the media.

Today, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged support for African-led mediation.

"The United Nations is intensifying its efforts to help people seeking safety in neighboring countries," he wrote on Twitter.

The United Nations said that nearly 75,000 people were internally displaced during the first week of fighting, mainly in the states of Khartoum, Northern, Blue Nile, North Kordofan, North, West and South Darfur.

More than 30,000 people have fled to Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Central Africa, according to estimates by the United Nations, which warned that the number of people fleeing could reach 270,000 if the fighting continues.

The continuous battles between the army and the Rapid Support Forces prompted many countries to intensify their efforts to evacuate their nationals or members of diplomatic missions, by land, sea and air.

The Sudanese Ministry of Health said that the fighting affected 12 states out of 18 in the country.

Sudan has plunged into chaos since the bloody struggle for power erupted in mid-April between army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, nicknamed "Hemedti".

The war left at least 528 dead and 4,599 wounded, according to figures announced by the Ministry of Health on Saturday, but the toll is likely to be higher.

The two parties to the conflict exchange accusations of violating the armistice, which was extended for three days under international mediation, and ends, Sunday, at midnight.

Earlier, the Sudanese army accused the Rapid Support Forces of turning a hospital into a heavily armed military barracks and command center for operations.

In the details, a statement issued by the General Command of the Armed Forces said: "The rebels turned the East Nile Hospital into a heavily armed military barracks and a command center for operations and continued hostile action after evacuating patients, including critical cases, in intensive care."

The statement also accused the Rapid Support Forces of continuing "indiscriminate shelling and looting of public and private property, including banks, shops, and citizens' homes."

He said that the army is monitoring the rapid support forces moving from the west to the capital, which confirms the continuation of these forces in violating the declared armistice.

The head of the Human Rights Commission in Sudan, Rifaat Mirghani Abbas, warned that the country's health system is on the verge of collapse, as a result of the ongoing clashes since the middle of this month between the army and the Rapid Support Forces.

Abbas said, "We are now talking about a health system on the verge of collapse. Hospitals have become a battleground for both sides and have not been spared from their fire."

He added that the medical personnel are working in very bad conditions, the necessary medicines have become almost non-existent, and ambulances cannot operate safely, in addition to multiple problems related to the health situation.

It is noteworthy that the ongoing battles in Sudan between the Sudanese army on the one hand and the "rapid support" forces on the other, in separate areas, have resulted in at least 14 attacks on health facilities since the fighting began.

China's Special Envoy for the Middle East, Zhai Jun: China looks at relations with Syria from a strategic perspective, and within a comprehensive vision for the region

China's Special Envoy for the Middle East, Zhai Jun: China looks at relations with Syria from a strategic perspective, and within a comprehensive vision for the region

    Saturday, April 29, 2023   No comments

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad discussed, today, Saturday, during his meeting with the Chinese government's special envoy to the Middle East, Zhai Jun, the Syrian-Chinese relations, common perceptions of the bilateral relationship, and China's vital role throughout this region.

President al-Assad pointed out that the most important positive change that occurred in the world was represented by the Chinese role, "which is escalating in a calm and balanced manner."

President al-Assad praised the Chinese mediation, which culminated in the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the improvement of relations between them, in a way that will be reflected in the stability of the entire Middle East region, as he described it.

He also pointed to the importance of the Belt and Road Initiative in achieving economic development and cooperation, stressing that "confrontation has always been primarily economic. Therefore, liberation from the restriction of dealing in US dollars has become necessary."

He added, "This role is presenting a new model in politics, economy and culture, especially as it is based on the principle of achieving stability, peace and profit for all," noting that "the whole world today needs the Chinese presence, politically and economically, in order to restore balance to the global situation, especially In light of the Russian-Chinese relations, and the strong international space that the BRICS alliance represents, capable of creating a multipolar international system.

He pointed out that the BRICS countries can play a leading role in this field, in addition to the option of adopting the Chinese yuan in trade transactions between countries.

Al-Assad stressed that Syria does not forget that China stood by its side during the war in order to defend Syrian sovereignty, in accordance with international law and the United Nations Charter, and that it appreciates all the assistance provided by Beijing during the earthquake period.

For his part, the Special Envoy, Zhai Jun, conveyed to President Assad the greetings of Chinese President Xi Jinping, and his keenness to achieve greater results in bilateral relations, stressing that China views relations with Syria from a strategic perspective, and within a comprehensive vision for the region.

Zhai Jun expressed his country's satisfaction with the victory achieved by the Syrian people in their battle against terrorism, "because it is a victory for all countries that defend their sovereignty and dignity," stressing that Beijing "will stand with Syria in international forums, in word and deed, in defense of truth and justice, and will support its battle." Against hegemony, terrorism and external interference.

Zhai Jun expressed China's support for the positive developments regarding the rapprochement path between Syria and the Arab countries.

Strong reaction by Medvedev to South Korea's readiness to supply Kiev with weapons: What will the South Koreans say if Russian weapons reach their northern neighbor?

Strong reaction by Medvedev to South Korea's readiness to supply Kiev with weapons: What will the South Koreans say if Russian weapons reach their northern neighbor?

    Wednesday, April 19, 2023   No comments

It would seem that Russian leader have a counter-move to every move by Western countries who are increasing or thinking about increasing their support to Ukraine. To this end, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev commented on South Korean President Yoon Sok Yul's statement of his country's readiness to supply weapons to the Kiev regime. He asked: What will the South Koreans say if Russian weapons reach their northern neighbor?

This came in a post by Medvedev on his official channel on the “Telegram” application, where he wrote: There are new people willing to help our enemies, as South Korean President Yoon Sok Yul said that this country, in principle, is ready to supply weapons to the Kiev regime.

And this is given that the South Koreans have been asserting strongly, until recently, that the possibility of supplying Kiev with lethal weapons is completely excluded.

What will the people of this country say when they see the latest Russian weapons designs in their closest neighbours, our partners from North Korea?

This is called bartering.

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that South Korea's provision of military aid to Ukraine would mean Seoul's participation in the conflict to some extent.

Here is a translation of his statement:

There are new ones willing to help our enemies. South Korean President Yun Sok-yeol said that, in principle, this state is ready to supply weapons to the Kyiv regime. 

Moreover, until recently, the South Koreans ardently assured that the possibility of supplying lethal weapons to Kyiv was completely ruled out.

I wonder what the inhabitants of this country will say when they see the latest designs.

Russian weapons from their closest neighbors - our partners from the DPRK?

What is called 

Quid pro quo…

War News In Review: Is there going to be a Ukrainian spring offensive this year?

War News In Review: Is there going to be a Ukrainian spring offensive this year?

    Monday, April 17, 2023   No comments

Since Russian troops pulled back from the Kherson region west of the Dnipro River, Ukrainian politicians built a narrative about a counter offensive that would result in their troops taking back Crimea. It was convincing enough of a sales pitch that many previously hesitant NATO nations decided to supply the Ukrainian government with almost everything they asked for, including advanced tanks, guided missiles, and more ammunitions.

The counteroffensive that was supposed to start late in winter was rebranded as the Spring Offensive. Halfway through spring 2023, and no major Ukrainian troop movement has been detected anywhere in the frontlines except the redirection of elite troops to defend the Russian offensive already underway in Bakhmut and Avdeeva (Avdiivka) fronts. 

From studying the control maps compiled by multiple sources, including Ukrainian activists, over the past three months (not the year), for every square mile reclaimed by Ukrainian forces, Russian forces gained more than 100 square miles. Importantly, the gained territories are cities and towns, including Bakhmut and Avdeeva, turned by the armed forces of Ukraine into shielded fortresses, protective trenches, and secretive tunnels and underground bunkers.

Over the past year, the only zone Russian troops were forced out of because of a Ukrainian offensive was in the northeast region of the Donbass region—Kharkiv front. There, Russian troops were pushed back from areas they wanted to control. Russian generals believed that the loss there was due to their forces being spread too thin over a long active frontline. 

The generals who suffered the loss were rotated out and new generals were appointed, many of whom had experience fighting urban warfare in Syria. Soon after taking over command, they recommended the creation of fortified, defensible frontlines. The plan was approved and troops were pulled to the west side of the major river dividing Ukraine into the Western territories and the eastern territories—Dnipro River. Russian generals did not just use the Dnipro River as a defensive line that separated them from Ukrainian troops, they destroyed the bridges once they moved to the east side; they conducted a similar tactical retreat in the northeast using the Oskil River to limit a massive attack by Ukrainian troops. These moves essentially cut the open active frontlines by about 40%, leaving them with only 60% of contact space, to which they allocated more resources.

In fact, it is conceivable that the gains in Bakhmut and Avdiivka were made possible by the adjustments made in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts—thanks to the use of natural barriers, rivers and dams, to make any large-scale attack by Ukrainian troops very risky and manageable by fewer Russian troops while the majority are utilized elsewhere. This worked in favor of Russia since it needed time to train and equip the newly mobilized troops--about 300,000 of them, many are still going through specialized training.

Russian troops have also learned from their mistakes during the early days of the military operation. They realized that drones, though have limited effects compared to fighter jets, they can nonetheless inflict huge damage on troops bogged down in open spaces.

Ukrainian troops were able to inflict some losses using Turkish drones; Ukrainians even made a song about the Bayraktar TB2 Drones. From that experience, Russians learned that cheap drones can in fact change the outcomes of battles and they can inflict crippling damage on exposed troops marching on the offense. Russian leaders not only reached out to allies to purchase drones, which was quickly used, but they ramped up production of their own drones and guided ammunition.

When all this is taken together, it becomes clear that moving heavy war machines to retake territories, in the presence of cheap drones and guided missiles that can be launched from afar, is very risky. Even if Ukraine receives enough of the promised tanks from US, EU, and NATO, these tanks will be vulnerable especially when they have to be moved across river and open spaces.

For Ukrainian troops to retake Crimea, they will have to use a large number of armored vehicles and tanks and they have to be able to cross the mentioned natural barriers. This makes the Zaporizhzhia frontline the likely path for launching an attack southward.

Ukrainian politicians may have set the bar too high for themselves. Perhaps they had to do so to be able to get more weapons from their NATO allies. However, now that they have received the weapons they asked for, they must show that they can deliver on their promises.

From what is known from the data in the public domain, if they do undertake a massive counteroffensive, they will lose the battle and such a loss may decide the outcome of the war. But because of the rhetoric they put out, and the support they received, it is possible that they know that the outcome of the war will be decided this year one way or another. That does not mean that the war will end this year; but the direction of the war will be decided this year. If a pridiction must be made, then it can be concluded that there will be no Ukrainian spring offensive this year that will result in Ukrainian forces taking back Crimean or any other major regions; and if Ukrainians muster one, they will lose the war because of it.