Indonesia and China relations: Prabowo visits Beijing for first state visit, as Singapore connects its economy to China

Indonesia and China relations: Prabowo visits Beijing for first state visit, as Singapore connects its economy to China

    Friday, November 08, 2024   No comments

At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, Prabowo will pay a state visit to China from Friday to Sunday. President Xi will hold a welcoming ceremony for him, and the two heads of state will hold talks. Premier Li Qiang and Zhao Leji, chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, will meet with him respectively, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. 

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto arrived at Beijing Capital International Airport, China, at 6:25 p.m. local time on Friday for his inaugural state visit, at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Accompanied by his son, Didit Hediprasetyo, Prabowo disembarked from the Boeing 737-700 BBJ presidential aircraft and was greeted with a guard of honor performed by the People’s Liberation Army. A young girl then presented the Indonesian head of state with flowers.

Chinese Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Han Jun, received Prabowo and his officials, including Minister of Foreign Affairs Retno Marsudi and Cabinet Secretary Teddy Indra Wijaya, at the airport.

Spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, said earlier that Prabowo's decision to choose China as the first stop on his inaugural overseas tour reflects the importance of Indonesia-China bilateral ties.

Another neighbor to China, and significant Muslim influence, Singapore, is also strengthening relations with China. The Singapore Business Federation (SBF) organized the 7th Singapore-China Trade and Investment Forum (SCTIF) in Shanghai on Wednesday, on the sidelines of the 7th China International Import Expo (CIIE), with 15 memorandums of understanding valued at more than S$60 million ($45.26 million) signed, setting the stage for new growth opportunities and strengthening bilateral partnerships. 

Media Review: Finnish President's article in The Economist, "the era of Western dominance as we know it is over"

Media Review: Finnish President's article in The Economist, "the era of Western dominance as we know it is over"

    Monday, July 08, 2024   No comments

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has said that what we are witnessing today is in many ways equivalent to what happened in 1918, 1945 and 1989, and that the next few years will likely determine the world order, its balance and its dynamics for the rest of the century, or at least for decades to come.

In an article in The Economist, Stubb spoke of “moments in international relations when we know that the world is changing, but we don’t know exactly where it is heading,” stressing that “we are living in one of those moments when an era dies and a new one is born.”

The Finnish president noted in his article that “the things that were supposed to bring us together – trade, technology, energy, information and currency – are now tearing us apart.”

Stubb admitted that he was among many who believed that the end of the Cold War would mean the end of history, but that did not happen. The era of Western hegemony, as we used to know it, is over.

He believed that the question now is how global power will be shared in the future, while we are now witnessing a reorganization of the balance between three areas of power: the global West, the global East, and the Global South, stressing that this classification of the power triangle, if it constitutes an oversimplification, helps to clarify how the world is changing.

"West and East are fighting for hearts and minds in the South"

Stubb summed up the equation by saying that "West and East are fighting for hearts and minds in the South", attributing the matter to his realization that the South will decide the direction of the new world order.

Stubb believed that the West is mistaken if it imagines that the South will be attracted to it only because of what he called "the values ​​or power of freedom and democracy", and that the East is also mistaken if it imagines that huge infrastructure projects and direct financing will give it complete influence in the South.

The Finnish president concluded in his article that "it is ultimately a matter of values ​​and interests together", and that "the South will choose what it wants, because it can do so".

Stubb believed that the West must choose between continuing to believe in the illusion that it can remain dominant, as it has done for centuries, or accepting the facts of change and starting to act accordingly, especially towards the South.

Stubb stressed that Indian Foreign Minister Vinay Mohan Kwatra provided material worthy of thought when he pointed out that “Europe must get rid of the mentality that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.”

He pointed out that one of the reasons why the East is a more convincing partner for the South is related to the systematic infrastructure, financial and development programs that China is implementing around the world, describing China’s strategy as “successful.”

Stubb concluded his article by emphasizing that if the West “returns to its old ways of direct or indirect domination, or outright arrogance, it will lose the battle.”

Work, Wealth, and Artificial Intelligence

Work, Wealth, and Artificial Intelligence

    Thursday, May 09, 2024   No comments

With every human adoption of a new tool, fear about the future of humanity follows. Many of these adoptions are profoundly justified. The development of nuclear weapons, for instance, raised and continue to raise fear among reasonable people: How can we justify that development of such weapon that would allow some of us to discriminately kill not just humans but living beings on the face of the planet with just few weapons? The development and deployment of gun powder nearly annihilated entire populations. The development of the wheel and modern transportation systems enabled some peoples to overtake distant lands and destroy indigenous communities across the globe and enslave human beings and sell them continents away. All these new tools and systems allowed those in power to do more with less, to earn more with few resources; that is to avoid work themselves through the deployment of tools and the exploitation of other humans and animals. In short, humans drive for developing new tools can be explained by their desire to avoid work that they must do themselves. The development of the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology exemplifies the desire for bypassing work and the anxiety of losing work. 

 

To understand the emerging threat and opportunity of AI, news media outlets called on persons who built wealth to share their insight. One of the richest individuals in the world who built his massive wealth by investing “cash” in the businesses that does work without doing work himself, Warren Buffett, weighed in: AI “can create an enormous amount of leisure time,” Buffett said. That opinion suggests that with AI taking over many tasks humans use to do, people will be freed to “leisure” stuff. That conclusion has never been proven correct following every major human adoption of transformative tools.

 

To support his view, Buffett referenced theories of John Maynard Keynes, “one of the most important economic thinkers of the modern era, who correctly predicted output per capita would grow at an exponential rate, but failed to predict what humans would do with increased productivity.”

 

Here, Buffett unknowingly weaken his argument: he confused “increased productivity” with the theory that increased productivity will allow humans to work less and have more “leisure time”. That hypothesis cannot be supported by the data. In the US, for example, where machination of work has led to astounding levels of increased output, workers, can barely afford days, not weeks, of vacation time, let alone family time.

 

Keynes, whose work is recommended for summer read by Buffett, did not seem to believe that adoption of new tools will allow human workers to take time off or find less demanding work to do.  Keynes seemed to recognize the destabilizing effects of new technologies on the workforce and society in general, which made him a strong promoter of “government intervention through social and job programs in order to stabilize economics” as he argued in his books “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money”.

 

Government (State) intervention in economic life is not a modern phenomenon. The eminent historian and Islamic economic philosopher, Abd al-Rahman Ibn Khaldun, underscored the function of the State in creating global markets. Writing six hundred years ago, Ibn Khaldun argued that “work becomes the only store of value, represented by the temporal intensity (time) and level of diversification and sophistication of work (skill; expertise).” However, how work is rewarded and valued, in the view of Ibn Khaldun, is dependent on the existence and undertakings of the State (dawla), “the force that can secure, redistribute, and grow wealth (amwal).”  He summarizes this paradigm this way: “Power and State produce the market of the world.’ [al-Sultan wa-a'-dawla suq li-'l-alam; al-dawla hiya al-suq al-aazam] (Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddima). 

 

Taking human knowledge on work and wealth, and the systems that govern work and the production of wealth, from centuries passed, not just a mere 200 years, one can appreciate the persistent need to appreciate Work, not just as an activity that humans must do to subsist, but as a human and societal function that must be systematized.

  

A fatwa spurred the boycott of Israel's supporters in Indonesia

A fatwa spurred the boycott of Israel's supporters in Indonesia

    Tuesday, December 12, 2023   No comments

Solidarity marches in Indonesia, like other countries of the world, carry many messages that are reflected in the behavior of the solidarity activists, the most prominent of which is the boycott of companies related to Israel, or that have explicitly announced any forms of support or sympathy within Israel.

Over the past two months, the boycott has expanded remarkably in Indonesia, which has the largest Islamic market in the world, and whose population this year is estimated by the Indonesian Statistics Authority to reach 278.8 million people.

The boycott campaigns had not become evident among Indonesians, until the Indonesian Ulema Council last month issued Fatwa No. 83 of 2023, which became the jurisprudential basis for the boycott campaign among the public.

The fatwa - which came in 9 pages - requires that zakat and alms funds be directed to support the struggle of the Palestinian people to gain their independence in the face of Israeli aggression, and prohibits any support for Israel or any party that supports it, even by opinion or influence to buy products that support it, according to the text of the fatwa.

Supporting fatwas were also issued, including those issued by the Issues Research Committee of the Nahdatul Ulama Association in West Java, which saw the boycott as imposing kifaya in solidarity with the people of Gaza, and as weakening the economy of the occupation and those who have a relationship with it.

The Indonesian Ulema Council did not issue any lists of companies to boycott. More than one list of products that were called for to be boycotted was spread by activists and tweeters, and not by any official body or specific institution. The Secretary of the Fatwa Committee of the Indonesian Ulama Council, Miftah al-Huda, said that his council is not authorized to issue such Those lists.

Vice President of the People's Consultative Council, Dr. Hidayat Nur Wahid, supported the fatwa of the Indonesian Ulema Council, and suggested that legislation be passed to boycott Israeli products, in light of their committing crimes against the Palestinian people, to be a legal basis for the boycott, and to confirm Indonesia's position towards Palestine and the occupation.

Nour Waheed called for the establishment of a body concerned with this matter that would collect information and be an information reference for everything related to the boycott, and who should be boycotted based on the relationship with Israel and its aggression, and the activities of those companies inside the country.

Indonesian-based media outlet Republik reported on Saturday that Indonesian advocates are calling for a boycott of Israeli-linked products due to the ongoing genocide in Gaza. 

The call for a boycott was initially launched by human rights groups in both Indonesia and Malaysia and gradually grew to garner support from various political parties, the outlet said.

The list reportedly includes companies such as Coca-Cola, Starbucks, McDonalds, KFC, Nestle and IBM. 

"We in the House of Representatives encourage this boycott movement of Israeli products to become the official stance of the Indonesian government to be followed by all businesses and society," a member of the country’s parliament, Amin Ak, told Republika on Wednesday.

Advocates of the boycott are urging individuals to opt for locally-made products over Israeli-linked ones.

"That would be a good moment to strengthen the tightening of the flow of imported goods, especially imports of some products," said a senior official at the Indonesian Industry Ministry, Putu Juli Ardika.

The aftermath of BRICS expansion: The West will warn its Arab Allies who joined the Bloc

The aftermath of BRICS expansion: The West will warn its Arab Allies who joined the Bloc

    Monday, September 04, 2023   No comments

BRICS membership expanded, and with that expansion comes benefits and responsibilities. Among them is closer economic cooperation among member states. This would mean that Russia, the hardest hit country by Western sanctions, and Iran, the second longest hit country by Western sanctions will be able to trade without fear of Western limits. Tow of the Arab nations that joined BRICS recently, Saudi Arabia and UAE, will feel the heat from their Western allies. It already started.

Officials from the US, UK, and EU are planning to “jointly press” the UAE into halting shipments of goods to Russia that "could help Moscow in its war against Ukraine,' according to western officials who spoke with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

Several US and European officials started a trip to the Gulf monarchy on 4 September “as part of a collective global push to keep computer chips, electronic components, and other so-called dual-use products” away from Russia.

Western envoys also traveled “jointly and separately” to countries such as Turkiye and Kazakhstan to pressure authorities into preventing western dual-use products from reaching Russia.

Despite ongoing pressure from the west, Abu Dhabi has not enforced sanctions imposed on Russia, instead deepening cooperation with the Kremlin. Nonetheless, the Gulf nation has condemned the invasion of Ukraine at the UN several times, and an Emirati official told the WSJ that the country enforces UN-imposed sanctions on Russia.

The official added the Gulf state is monitoring the export of dual-use products and is committed to protecting “the integrity of the global financial system.”

In response to the position taken by the UAE, US officials publicly labeled the UAE "a country of focus" earlier this year as they look to clamp down on Russia's ties with independent nations.

Dubai, in particular, has reaped the benefits of the Emirati government's neutrality, as Russian nationals have become the largest buying group of real estate in the luxurious Emirate, which has also become a hub for Russian oil traders.

The new pressure campaign from the west comes less than two weeks after the UAE was officially invited to join the Russian and Chinese-led BRICS+ group of nations. The expanded bloc also pledged to help Africa develop its local economy through investments by member states who have the cash and loans from the New Development Bank (BRICS bank). UAE, a country with cash that need to be invested, is taking advantage of this new opportunity.

The UAE pledged $4.5 billion in clean energy investments for the African continent on 5 September during the second day of the three-day African Climate Summit held in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi.

“We will deploy $4.5 billion … to jumpstart a pipeline of bankable clean energy projects in this very important continent,” Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, the head of state-owned renewable energy firm Masdar and the Emirati national oil company ADNOC, told attendees on Tuesday.

“If Africa loses, we all lose,” warned Jaber, adding that the investment aims “to develop 15 GW (gigawatts) of clean power by 2030” and “catalyze at least an additional $12.5 billion from multilateral, public and private sources.”

Jaber, who is also president of the upcoming COP28 climate summit to be hosted by the UAE, said a consortium including Masdar would help achieve the clean power goals and stressed that a “surgical intervention of the global financial architecture that was built for a different era” is needed, urging institutions to lower debt burdens.

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA), Africa’s renewable generation capacity was 56 GW in 2022. Despite possessing an abundance of natural resources, just 3 percent of energy investments worldwide are made in Africa.

The three-day climate summit in Nairobi has attracted heads of state, government, and industry, including UN head Antonio Guterres, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, and US climate envoy John Kerry.

“Renewable energy could be the African miracle, but we must make it happen,” Guterres told the summit on Monday. He also addressed the member states of the G20 to “assume your responsibilities” in the battle to combat climate catastrophe.

Kenyan President William Ruto said trillions of dollars in “green investment opportunities” would be needed as the climate crisis accelerates.

“Africa holds the key to accelerating decarbonization of the global economy. We are not just a continent rich in resources. We are a powerhouse of untapped potential, eager to engage and fairly compete in the global markets,” Ruto said.

Abu Dhabi sealed a deal with Egypt in June to build Africa's largest wind farm as the nation looks to rapidly expand the use of clean energy abroad and at home, where it operates three nuclear power reactors. The UAE also has three of the world's largest and lowest-cost solar plants. 

This focus on clean energy is part of the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 Strategic Initiative.

The development of renewable energy sources has recently become a priority for Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, which plans to source 50 percent of its energy requirements from renewables by 2030.

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Qatar in talks with Algeria to invest in petrochemical projects in the North African Country

Qatar in talks with Algeria to invest in petrochemical projects in the North African Country

    Thursday, August 24, 2023   No comments

According to an Elkhabar Daily report published on 18 August, Qatar is currently in talks with the Algerian government to construct a chemical power plant for Algiers in a bid to kick-start a potential partnership with state-run petroleum corporation Sonatrach.

Qatari news agency Doha News disclosed that Algerian Minister of Energy and Mines, Mohamed Arkab, met with the Qatari ambassador Abdul Aziz Ali Al-Nama in Algiers on 17 August to discuss the construction project details.

Arkab revealed to Elkhabar Daily that "Sonatrach is ready to work with Power International to achieve that project, which is part of Algeria's strategy to develop the industrial sector."

This recent development comes after Algeria implemented reformed hydrocarbon regulations designed to entice investors, improve processing mechanisms, and establish a longitudinal vision for the North African country that will boost the national economy and increase employment.

The report further disclosed that the next meeting between Qatar and Sonatrach will be organized in September. In addition, Qatar's ambassador to Algiers emphasized that numerous Doha-based companies are highly interested in investing in integral projects in Algeria, specifically in the sectors of exploration, manufacturing, research, and the petrochemical industry.

Sonatrach generates nearly $2 billion in sales annually and employs around 3,000 people. Sonatrach's petrochemical programs have also led several petrochemical construction projects, as well as consolidating partnerships with Turkiye, TotalEnergies, and a UK-Chinese consortium.

Since 2022, Qatar has sought to bolster relations with countries residing outside of the West Asian region in an attempt to diversify its economy and to alleviate the impact of the global energy crisis instigated by the imposition of western sanctions against Russia.

Last week, Qatar began its construction of 500,000 residential units in the northwestern Nigerian state of Kaduna as part of its Mega Economic City project.

Furthermore, Qatar and India reached the final stages of their Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) agreement earlier this month, which would see Doha providing New Delhi with 1 million metric tonnes of LNG per year.

Keeping our readers informed about the most consequential events in this fast changing world. Manage your Subscription; invite a friend to subscribe to ISR’s Weekly Review Bulletin

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune: Algeria had submitted an official request to join the BRICS group

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune: Algeria had submitted an official request to join the BRICS group

    Sunday, July 23, 2023   No comments

On Friday, the Algerian “An-Nahar” TV quoted the Algerian President, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, as saying that Algeria has submitted an official request to join the “BRICS” group, and that it will become a shareholder in the “BRICS” bank, with an amount of $ 1.5 billion.

Tebboune said, "Algeria has officially asked the president of the BRICS bank, Dilma Rousseff, to agree to be a shareholder in the bloc's bank," noting that "Algeria's first contribution will be $1.5 billion."

Earlier, Tebboune considered that his country's accession to the "BRICS" group would help it in development, more than the assistance of international financial bodies, adding that "the BRICS bank contains $100 billion, more than the World Bank."

Likewise, Tebboune said, on December 22, 2022, that "Algeria is close to joining the BRICS bloc," stressing that the BRICS countries will not mind granting Algeria full membership, and that they have approval from Russia.

The North African country, which is rich in oil and gas, seeks to diversify its economy and strengthen its partnership with countries such as China. Tebboune announced, during his visit to Beijing, that China will invest $36 billion in various fields in his country, including industry, modern technology, the knowledge economy, transportation, and agriculture.

In turn, a South African diplomat said, yesterday, Thursday, that 22 countries have submitted an official request to become members of the "BRICS" economic bloc, adding that countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iran, have officially requested to become members of the "BRICS" group, while the countries that have expressed interest in joining include Argentina, the Emirates, Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain and Indonesia.

Report: The new "BRICS" currency poses a threat to the West

Report: The new "BRICS" currency poses a threat to the West

    Monday, June 05, 2023   No comments

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that instead of considering the BRICS currency as an alternative currency, "we will initially work to settle trade between the BRICS countries, and this could, in theory, create conditions for stronger monetary relations between the member states," according to UNHERD website.

The quiet rise and rule of Singapore that cannot be unnoticed by its loud neighbors and distant friends

The quiet rise and rule of Singapore that cannot be unnoticed by its loud neighbors and distant friends

    Thursday, June 01, 2023   No comments

Singapore is rarely in the news. Countries, other than Western countries, are usually in the news because bad things are happening in them. That is one of the persistent biases of Western media. Here, we review several news stories covering events in Singapore, this multiethnic and multireligious countries, with its Muslim woman president, Halimah Yacob, though the position of the President of Singapore is ceremonial, her presence in the presidency will be useful in integrating Singapore's economy with that of Muslim-majority neighbors like Indonesia and Malaysia as well as the 57-nation bloc of Muslim-majority countries around the world.

Singapore overtakes Hong Kong as the most expensive Asia-Pacific city for private homes

Singapore’s private homes are now the most expensive in Asia-Pacific, having overtaken Hong Kong, according to a new report.

Data from the Home Attainability Index from the Urban Land Institute (ULI) Asia Pacific Centre for Housing showed the median price of Singapore’s private homes was $1.2 million in 2022, compared to Hong Kong’s $1.16 million.

Private rental homes in Singapore also had the highest monthly rent in the region at $2,600 — “far exceeding” other cities such as Sydney, Melbourne and Hong Kong, according to the report...

Read the full article here.

The article below makes the case for Singapore as being better in more than just one aspect.

Why Singapore is superior to Hong Kong in almost every way

It’s amusing to read comments by local property tycoon Ronnie Chan Chi-chung about places such as Singapore being “artificial”, “charmless” and “super boring”. Hong Kong, on the other hand, has the six “Gs” that are its unique advantages: genetics, geography, a culture of giving, the GBA (Greater Bay Area), its government and grey matter.

Really? The problem with tycoons everywhere, and not just in Hong Kong, is that they feel free to pontificate because they are rarely challenged, well, not in their face anyway. So I am glad reader John Chan of Singapore has written a rebuttal, pointing out that the city state enjoys both higher per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and median monthly household income. It’s doing very well, thank you very much!

Maybe Ronnie Chan can counter, as you would if you are a tycoon, that the capitalisation of Hong Kong’s stock market far exceeds that of Singapore or that the latter’s IPO market is minuscule compared to his city’s. Hong Kong has Disneyland, but hey, they have Universal Studios.

But all these comparisons are superficial.

The fundamental fact is that Singapore is a city state, rather than... read article

Politically, Singapore is oftten courted by other countries to take side in relation to global matters. This article is one example.

Europe sends big hitters to Singapore to rally Asian allies against Russia

Europe is fretting that Asia isn’t doing enough to condemn Russia and support Ukraine — and it’s revving up efforts to sway Asian officials in person. 

On Friday, an unprecedentedly high-profile European delegation will converge in Singapore at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s top security forum. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will be there, as will EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, flanked by Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov. 

U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace is also expected to attend in person — as are Boris Pistorius, Kajsa Ollongren and Pål Jonson, the defense ministers from Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden.

Their goal: Rally more Asian countries to help Kyiv.

While many Asian nations initially joined in condemning Russia’s invasion at the United Nations, countries like India and Vietnam continue to count on Russian military or energy supplies, while Western allies Japan and South Korea are unable to... read article

Iran, Indonesia Agree on Mutual Settlements in National Currencies

Iran, Indonesia Agree on Mutual Settlements in National Currencies

    Wednesday, May 24, 2023   No comments

Iranian President Seyed Ebrahim Rayeesi said on Tuesday that Tehran and Jakarta have agreed to strengthen and expand economic relations and start trading in their national currencies in a bid to end the US dollar monopoly.

Rayeesi made the remarks in a joint press conference with his Indonesian counterpart Joko Widodo in Jakarta on Tuesday.

Iran's president, who is on an official visit to Indonesia at the head of a high-ranking politico-economic delegation, stated that Tehran and Jakarta have set a goal to promote the value of their trade to $20 billion.

He stressed that the both sides are resolute on promoting exchanges using national currencies in order to set aside the US dollar.

Several countries have stressed that they no longer have trust in the US currency because it has become an unreliable financial instrument.

The Iranian chief executive added that the signing of different documents for bilateral cooperation in various sectors reaffirms both sides' will to develop relations in all fields.

In the presence of Raeisi and Widodo, senior officials of Iran and Indonesia signed 11 documents to boost cooperation in preferential trade, cancellation of visas, cultural exchanges, supervision over the pharmaceutical products, science and technology as well as oil and gas.

Iran and Russia sign an agreement to build a railway line boosting the North-South Trade Route initiative

Iran and Russia sign an agreement to build a railway line boosting the North-South Trade Route initiative

    Thursday, May 18, 2023   No comments

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, witnessed via video link today, Wednesday, the signing of an agreement to finance and build a railway in Iran, as part of plans to establish an international transport corridor linking the north and south.

The railway line between the cities of Rasht and Astara is seen as an important link in the international corridor, which aims to connect India, Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan and other countries by rail and sea.

Russia says this corridor can rival the Suez Canal as a major route for global trade.

Putin said that the unique north-south transport route - of which the Rasht-Astara railway will become a part - will contribute to a significant diversification of global transport flows.

He added that the railway line - which extends 162 km along the Caspian Sea coast - will help connect Russian ports on the Baltic Sea with ports.

Iran bordering the Indian Ocean and the Gulf.

In turn, the Iranian president said that this agreement is undoubtedly an important and strategic step in the field of cooperation between Tehran and Moscow.

Western sanctions imposed on Russia and Iran have pushed the two countries to strengthen their political and economic relations, and both countries say the sanctions are unjustified.

Since 1979, the West has imposed numerous sanctions on Iran, which has about a quarter of the oil reserves in the Middle East, and its economy has been paralyzed. The West has also imposed another set of restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program, and imposed sanctions on Russia because of its war in Ukraine.

The agreement between Russia and Iran, with support from India, will make this initiative one that would compete with the Suez Canal, reducing the strategic importance of the Suez Canal and revenues for the Egyptian government. Aware of this connection between these trade systems, Egypt and Iran increased their low level talks to repair their diplomatic relations that have been downgraded since 1979.

The North-South Trade line is not isolated from the China-backed Belt and Road initiative, in fact it is seen as a complementing project. For that to be true, Pakistan must be integrated into this project. It is no coincidence then that the Iranian president, hours after signing the agreement with Putin, visited the border with Pakistan to emphasize two critical things: The integration of Pakistan into the Asia economy anchored by China and Russia and to address the security issue in the border with Pakistan, which recalls the increasing role now played by the SCO in regional security matters.

 

To these ends, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said today, Thursday, that he is in the process of implementing joint border projects between Iran and Pakistan. He added during a joint press conference with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Sistan and Baluchistan province on the sidelines of the opening of the electricity transmission project to Pakistan that part of the border markets with Pakistan has not been activated so far, and its problems will be resolved during this visit.

He pointed out that his country's government will also follow up the implementation of economic and tourism projects and border transportation.

The Iranian president said: "We will take more field steps to exchange energy and electricity with Pakistan, in addition to energy exchange and the launch of a joint border market between the two countries."

He confirmed that 6 other joint markets are being planned to be launched soon. He added that today's meeting, with the participation of the Pakistani Prime Minister, carries an "important message that borders can contribute to enhancing security between the two countries."

He pointed out that Pakistan's security "is the security of the entire region, which is our security, and the presence of foreigners in the region will not solve its security problems."

Raisi also touched on the outcome of the American presence in Afghanistan, saying that this presence contributed to "killing, wounding, disabling and displacing many of the people of this country."

For his part, Sharif said that Iran and Pakistan are "two brothers and two friends who share a common culture and history."

He added, "Means of strengthening economic relations in the future were discussed," stressing: "We will overcome all challenges and difficulties to achieve this goal."

Earlier, Iranian President Sharif met at the Bish-Mand joint border, as the two sides discussed developing joint trade relations.

Raisi and his accompanying delegation arrived Thursday morning in the province of Sistan and Baluchestan to follow up on a number of development projects in the province.

During this visit, Raisi followed up on the progress made in the strategic project to develop the "Makran coasts", and the inauguration of the water pumping process in the "Kahir Dam" and the operations of extending water to a number of villages in this province.

He pointed out that the development of the province of Sistan and Baluchestan is one of the priorities of the government's plans, adding: "The plans and programs set for this province, especially the Makran region, will be followed up."

Upon his arrival at Konark Airport, Raisi noted that the beaches of Makran have a lot of "good potentials for the economy, tourism and maritime economy."

He added, "Thanks to the victory of the Islamic Revolution, good measures and steps were taken in developing the province and developing its tourism and economic potential."

He stated that one of the objectives of this visit is to meet Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on the former borders of the city of Rask, and to follow up on planning economic projects, road tourism and infrastructure for the province of Sistan and Baluchestan.

media review: German companies expand their investments in China

media review: German companies expand their investments in China

    Wednesday, April 12, 2023   No comments

The New York Times reported that some German companies are expanding in China and are reluctant to leave the huge market they need to finance operations in Berlin.

The newspaper added, "At a time when Washington seeks to stifle economic relations with Beijing, two powerful engines of the German economy, Volkswagen and the chemical company (BASF), are expanding their huge Chinese investments."

Volkswagen, which has more than 40 factories in China, has announced a new effort to design models according to the wishes of Chinese customers, and will invest billions in local partnerships and production sites.

And BASF, with 30 production facilities in China, is pushing ahead with plans to spend €10 billion on a new chemical production complex that would rival in size its huge headquarters in Ludwigshafen.

As the American newspaper pointed out, "Across Germany, executives know that these investments run counter to efforts by the United States to isolate China economically. They argue that revenue from China is essential for their businesses to thrive and grow in Europe."

"The profits from China have allowed the company to offset losses from Europe's high energy costs and strict environmental rules," said Martin Brodermüller, CEO of BASF.

According to the New York Times, close trade relations are now under scrutiny in Berlin, at the behest of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, knowing that there was a political proposal to reset the country's relationship with China, its largest trading partner.

According to the newspaper, a study conducted by the Kiel Institute showed that “separation from China would be very costly for the whole of Europe, but in particular for Germany.” About 131 billion euros, and it may cost more, if China responds with other steps.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier had said earlier that Germany should "learn its lesson" from Russia's war on Ukraine. The lesson is that "we have to reduce our dependence on others, wherever we can". "This is especially true of China," he added.

Venezuela aiming to insolate its economy from western sanctions builds new ties with Iran and Russia

Venezuela aiming to insolate its economy from western sanctions builds new ties with Iran and Russia

    Sunday, April 09, 2023   No comments

A year after the inking of the cooperation agreement between the CEO of Iran’s SAIPA Automotive Group Mohammad Ali Teimouri and Venezuelan Minister of Transportation Ramón Velásquez at the venue of SAIPA Company in Tehran in order to produce Iranian cars in this country as joint venture (JV), Russia signs a transport deal with Venezuela.

Russia and Venezuela intend to create a shipping company to strengthen ties between Latin America and Russia. As part of the initiative, Moscow and Caracas plan to establish two transportation hubs to increase cooperation and establish a logistics chain. An intergovernmental commission has already decided to create such a company, which will be financed from public and private sources. The company could be registered in Sevastopol, St. Petersburg or Novorossiysk, and joint construction of ships is also planned.

New trade routes will greatly facilitate Russian exports to Latin America, since the region is actively interested in grain, sunflower oil and agricultural machinery from Russia. In turn, Russia will be able to import seafood and fruit at bargain prices. Venezuela will play the role of an operational center.

Shamkhani’s February activities are now being revealed: directing a foreign policy linked to long term economic security

Shamkhani’s February activities are now being revealed: directing a foreign policy linked to long term economic security

    Thursday, April 06, 2023   No comments

Media reports are now revealing that Iran’s top security official Ali Shamkhani and Russian President Vladimir Putin had extensive talks on de-dollarization of trade between the two sanction-hit countries during Shamkhani’s visit to Moscow earlier this year.

Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency covered the report after it was released late on Wednesday and said that the hours-long, off-the-record meeting between Shamkhani and Putin early February was mostly focused on initiatives to offset the impacts of Western sanctions on Iran and Russia, including efforts to ditch the US dollar from bilateral trade.

 It said the two had agreed that Iran and Russia could increase the share of other major currencies, including the Chinese yuan, the Emirati dirham and the Indian rupee, in their foreign exchange reserves.

 The report said that the agreement was a base for Shamkhani’s following consultations in China, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq to boost Iran’s access to international trade.

 Shamakhani had traveled to Moscow to attend a regional summit on Afghanistan. The former navy commander, who leads Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, then reached a deal in early March in Beijing with his Saudi counterpart Musaad bin Mohammed Al-Aiban to revive diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

 Shamkhani also traveled to Abu Dhabi and Baghdad last month in visits that many said were aimed at boosting Iran’s economic ties with its two Arab neighbors.

 

Media Review: The world of the dollar reserve system is coming to an end

Media Review: The world of the dollar reserve system is coming to an end

    Wednesday, April 05, 2023   No comments

The American magazine "The National Interest" reported that "the American president said that the ruble will turn to rubble, and the French finance minister said that the Russian economy will collapse, but despite these statements, the sanctions did not result in any major tsunami of regime change."

And it reported that “the movement to (Eurasian) resource-backed currencies was accelerated by the United States’ recognition of the trend and its attempt to reverse it, ostensibly through the war in Ukraine,” noting that “the revolution in the economy is not Bitcoin, but rather resource-based currencies.”

She explained, “With the Russians capping the price of their gold, Russian investors were stuck with an undervalued ruble, forcing it to appreciate against the dollar. In the past six months, the ruble has strengthened steadily. Then Putin added the double whammy that buyers of Oil can be bought with rubles or gold.

According to her, "If they buy oil with gold, they actually get a discount on oil, which leads to increased pressure on the supply of gold, which raises the price."

Therefore, "the West's commitment to burning the ruble backfired, and the strengthening of oil prices had a reinforcing effect on the ruble. As a result, in the land of paper, Russia and China are now able to control gold and oil prices," she says.

"The world of the dollar reserve system is coming to an end, as domestic funds were artificially inflated by the West in order to buy the assets of the East cheaply, and now it is payback time for the East," The National Interest confirmed.

The magazine concluded: "The dollar is still the reserve currency. This seismic change will not happen overnight, but the seeds were sown," stressing that "the current banking crisis is a symptom of the weakness of the monetary system, and what is happening in the West is the gradual death of paper currencies."

China's President Xi Jinping set to visit Iran

China's President Xi Jinping set to visit Iran

    Saturday, February 18, 2023   No comments

Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Iran, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced at the end of the Iranian president's three-day visit to China.

A joint statement from the two countries said Xi Jinping "gladly accepted the invitation" of his Iranian counterpart, but the date of the visit was not mentioned.

Earlier in the day, Raisi called his visit to China "extremely fruitful and successful," expressing his hope to advance cooperation with China in various fields.

In a press statement upon his arrival in Tehran, Raisi announced the signing of 20 memorandums of cooperation in the presence of the presidents of the two countries, stressing that there is a serious desire on both sides to enhance cooperation in the trade, economic, energy, scientific and technological fields.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said yesterday that Raisi's first visit to Beijing will help stability in the Middle East, and will not target any third party, but will contribute to the well-being of the Iranian and Chinese peoples.

The Iranian president met his Chinese counterpart on his eighth foreign visit during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Samarkand a few months ago. In the bilateral meeting, the Chinese president officially invited his Iranian counterpart to visit Beijing.

The Chinese and Iranian presidents agree to deepen the strategic partnership between the two countries

The Chinese and Iranian presidents agree to deepen the strategic partnership between the two countries

    Tuesday, February 14, 2023   No comments

 The importance of Iran's president visit to China can be assessed not only by the deals signed between the two leaders, but by how the official Chinese media covers it. 

A case in point is Chinese daily global media, GT, editorialized about the event.

The Chinese newspaper "Global Times" reported today, Tuesday, that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi agreed with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, during their meeting today in Beijing, to deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Iran.

"The two sides are expected to increase coordination within the framework of multilateral platforms, such as the United Nations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and to inject positive energy for peace, regionally and globally," the newspaper said.

According to the newspaper, Chinese experts said that Raisi's three-day visit to Beijing, the first since he assumed office in August 2021, would accelerate the implementation of a 25-year agreement between the two countries.

Experts pointed out that this meeting between the two presidents will direct bilateral cooperation to a higher level, which confirms the deep mutual trust between the two countries.

After the meeting, the two presidents witnessed the signing of a number of bilateral cooperation documents in the fields of agriculture, trade, tourism, environmental protection, health, disaster relief, culture and sports, according to the Chinese news agency Xinhua.

For his part, the Iranian president said, during his meeting with his Chinese counterpart, that the implementation of the comprehensive document of the strategic partnership between Iran and China is an important measure to achieve stability and peace in the region.

Raisi added, "Despite the opposition of the enemies of Iran and China to the consolidation and expansion of relations between the two countries, these relations have made great strides under the good management of the two parties."

He pointed out that "Iran and China are friends in difficult times," stressing that "the consolidation of these relations and friendships is effective in the security of the region and the world."

The Iranian president expressed his appreciation for China's positive and constructive role in the nuclear talks, noting that "the Westerners have once again fallen into a miscalculation with regard to Iran, not realizing that Iran and its people are determined, more than ever, to follow the path of development and progress." .

Raisi made it clear that Iran is ready to implement the Belt and Road project.

In turn, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that his country supports the Iranian side in protecting its "legitimate rights" and "encourages a speedy and appropriate solution to the Iranian nuclear issue."

"China will continue to constructively participate in the negotiations on the resumption of the Iran nuclear deal," Xi added.

Prior to his visit to Beijing, Raisi indicated, in a press statement, yesterday, Monday, that the goals and plans for his visit to China are to implement the strategic document that was signed between the two countries for 25 years, on March 27, 2022, and during this visit, economic agreements will be developed and accelerated between the two countries. .

It is noteworthy that the Iranian president had met his Chinese counterpart on his eighth foreign visit, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Samarkand, months ago. In the bilateral meeting, the Chinese president officially invited his Iranian counterpart to visit Beijing.

This is my president's tenth foreign visit in less than a year and a half of his government's life.

During the visit, the Iranian president will participate in the joint meeting of businessmen and economic experts from Iran and China, meet with Iranians residing in China, and talk to senior intellectuals and thinkers in China, according to local Iranian media.

China is Iran's largest trading partner. According to Iranian customs statistics, China is the main export destination for Iran, which imports from it exceeded 12 billion and 600 million US dollars.

China: Iranian President's visit helps stability in the Middle East

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the first visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Beijing will help stability in the Middle East and does not target any third party.

"The visit will contribute to the well-being of the Iranian and Chinese people," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin, according to the Chinese government newspaper, the Global Times.

On Tuesday afternoon, Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold a welcoming ceremony for his Iranian counterpart in the Great Hall of the People. After the ceremony, the two presidents will hold a closed meeting.

Last Sunday, China announced that the Iranian president would visit Beijing for 3 days, from 14 to 16 February.

Sino-Iranian relations have recently witnessed tension, following what Iran described as the positions raised during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia.

Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz and the Chinese President signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between the two countries, on the sidelines of the Chinese President's visit to the Kingdom.

At the time, the Iranian president said, "Some of the positions that were raised during the Chinese president's recent visit to the region caused dissatisfaction and discontent with the people and government in Iran."

Iran summoned the Chinese ambassador to Tehran to the headquarters of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to express its strong dissatisfaction with the statement of the Chinese-Gulf summit, which included "the status of the Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs islands, and the nuclear agreement negotiations."

Last September, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani confirmed that "all allegations made in the final statement of the Gulf Cooperation Council regarding the three Iranian islands are unacceptable."

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, "China's relations with Iran will not be affected by the current circumstances, but rather will be permanent and strategic."

On March 27, 2022, China and Iran signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement in Tehran, and the Iranian president stressed the need for continued cooperation between the two countries to implement the nuclear agreement.

Is the visit by Iran’s president to China a relation-repair opportunity or a bilateral strategic summit?

Is the visit by Iran’s president to China a relation-repair opportunity or a bilateral strategic summit?

    Monday, February 13, 2023   No comments

In December of 2022, the Chinese president made a visit to Saudi Arabia, and while meeting with representatives of other GCC members states and representatives of some Arab governments, Xi, out of courtesy, signed GCC statement issued at the conclusion of the gathering. The Chinese president also delivered a speech while attending the Arab-China summit.

The statement, however, contained language of support for the UAE in reaching a negotiated and peaceful solution to the issue of the three islands that Iran considers part of its territory, as well as calling on Iran to seriously engage in negotiations to return to the nuclear agreement.

In response to Xi’s endorsement of the statement, Tehran summoned the Chinese ambassador to Iran, to protest against the statement of the Gulf-Chinese summit, which touched on the status of the Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs islands.

China responded immediately. The Chinese foreign ministry issued a clarification saying that the GCC countries and Iran are all China's friends, and neither China-GCC relations nor China-Iran relations are targeted at any third party, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said in a press briefing. China supports the GCC countries in improving relations with Iran based on the principle of good-neighborly friendship, conducting win-win cooperation with Iran and jointly promoting the development and stability in the Persian Gulf. China is willing to continue to play a constructive role in this regard, Wang said.

China also sent its Vice Prime Minister Hu Chunhua to Tehran on December 13th to try and contain the situation. From there, Chunhua stressed that "China supports Iran's national sovereignty, territorial integrity and national honor, and combats foreign interference."

When the Vice Premier Hu Chunhua met with Raisi in Iranian capital Tehran during the same December visit, Raisi stressed that no matter how the international and regional landscapes change, Iran will remain firmly committed to deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries.

On Sunday February12, 2023, the Chinese government announced that, at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will pay a state visit to China from Tuesday to Thursday. Later on the same day, the Iranian government confirmed the visit. IRNA, the official news agency of Iran, reported that delegations from both sides are due to sign "cooperation documents,” and that Raisi will also take part in meetings with Chinese businessmen and Iranians living in China.

Chinese media predict that Raisi’s visit will enhance the two countries relations, especially in the context of the major channels that connect the two countries. "Cooperation under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will give China and Iran more space for cooperation. It is foreseeable that after this meeting, China-Iran relations will enter a new and higher stage," report the Chinese daily, GT.

The New York Times: Russia's economic growth confirms the limited impact of Western sanctions

The New York Times: Russia's economic growth confirms the limited impact of Western sanctions

    Tuesday, January 31, 2023   No comments

The New York Times published today, Tuesday, a report under the headline "Russia's Economic Growth Indicates Limited Impact of Western Sanctions".

The newspaper said in its report that the resilience of the Russian economy helps support global growth, according to a new report issued by the International Monetary Fund, which indicates that efforts by Western countries to weaken Moscow due to its war in Ukraine appear to be faltering.

In a report, the International Monetary Fund expected Russian production to expand by 0.3% this year and 2.1% next year, in defiance of previous expectations, of a sharp contraction in 2023, amid a set of Western sanctions, according to the newspaper.

Also, the newspaper indicated that a plan coordinated by the United States and Europe to cap the price of Russian oil exports at $60 a barrel is not expected to significantly reduce energy revenues.

"At the current G7 oil price ceiling level, Russian crude oil export volumes are not expected to be significantly affected, with Russian trade continuing to be redirected to non-sanctions countries," the IMF said.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund, in a report, improved its forecast for the performance of the Russian economy for the next two years.

In 2024, the Russian economy will grow by 2.1%, which is 0.6% better than the October forecast for the same period.

A few days ago, a United Nations report showed that the size of the Russian economy shrank by about 3% in 2022, compared to previous expectations of a decline of 15%.

Will next week be decisive in determining the fate of the global economy?

Will next week be decisive in determining the fate of the global economy?

    Sunday, January 22, 2023   No comments

Bloomberg Agency presents a reading of the most important global economic changes, and indicates the possibility of a total change in global markets, especially after the Chinese decision to completely abandon the steps to combat Corona.

Next week may show more reasons for hope about the global economy, after bleak months filled with negative signs of a deep recession, as some data could reflect the gradual improvement of business partnerships in most parts of the developed world.

Economists expect purchasing managers' indices for both the United States and the eurozone to rise, while many metrics will still point to contraction, the upward trend of travel could add to optimism, according to a Bloomberg report.

Global Purchasing Managers Activity

Such possibilities are reinforced by China's post-pandemic reopening, evidence of slowing inflation, and the emphatic views of some senior European officials that their economies will not stagnate. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva hinted on Friday that the lender may soon raise its forecasts for this year.

"We have, clearly, the strength of labor markets translating into consumer spending and sustaining the economy, and as China reopens, we expect growth this year to again exceed the global average," Kristalina Georgieva said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

But prices in the US will also be decisive, and the first estimate of Q4 GDP there, due on Thursday, could be helpful. The economy is expected to show expansion at an annual rate of 2.7% in the last three months of 2022, after a pace of 3.2% in the third quarter.

While this data points to strong growth, recent data, including retail sales, home construction and industrial production, showed that momentum was starting to fade in late 2022.

Economists, polled by Bloomberg, see US gross domestic product falling for two consecutive quarters in the middle of this year as sharp interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve curbed demand.

While Asian momentum could provide a boost to these expectations, the IMF chief noted that there is a risk that its contribution to the global economy could be derailed.

Expert point of view

America's fourth-quarter GDP will be boosted largely by strong consumer spending on services, even as goods decline.

Households continued to benefit from excess savings from the stimulus and benefit from strong wage gains, and tightening monetary policy means that 2023 will see significantly weaker demand.

Elsewhere, multiple interest rate decisions may include a possible eventual BoC hike, and a 12th consecutive rate hike in Colombia.

Australia and New Zealand may report slowing consumer price growth, while Eurozone policymakers have one last chance to speak before they meet the following week.

United States and Canada

Apart from the US PMI and GDP reports, the government is expected to announce on Friday that inflation-adjusted personal spending on goods and services fell in December for the first time in a year.

The data is also expected to show moderate inflation rates on an annual basis, but they will remain high. Fed officials, who are watching ahead of the end-of-month meeting, will take note of signs of a slowing economy and moderate inflation. Other reports are expected to show a decline in new home sales and core capital goods.

Looking north, the Bank of Canada appears to have put a cap on one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns in its history, with what economists and markets expect to be a final 25 basis point increase in borrowing costs on Wednesday.

Policy makers led by Governor Tiff Macklem will likely refrain from announcing a complete halt to hikes, opting instead to keep the benchmark rate at 4.5% while maintaining a hawkish tone while watching how quickly the economy declines.

The decision is complicated by conflicting data. Canada's ultra-tight labor market continues to add jobs with unemployment near a record low, and economic output is set to expand in the fourth quarter of 2022 at twice the pace of the central bank's previous forecast.

Annual inflation remains uncomfortably high at 6.3%, but the underlying pressures are showing clear signs of abating. Meanwhile, heavily indebted Canadian households are feeling the crunch of higher rates and are starting to cut back on their spending.

Asia

Australia and New Zealand reported their latest inflation figures in the middle of the week, as the RBA contemplates halting its tightening cycle and the RBNZ contemplates its next move after a big rally in November.

In South Korea, Thursday's GDP results may show the economy contracting, a result that could reinforce caution in the central bank.

In Japan, Friday's Tokyo CPI data should indicate whether inflation is closer to peaking in the world's third-largest economy.

Two closely watched South Asian economies, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, will decide key interest rates, along with Thailand.

In turn, the Philippines reported the performance of its economy in 2022, which President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. estimated would grow at 7%.

The Thai Ministry of Finance will provide its latest economic estimate later next week. China will be closed all week due to the Lunar New Year holiday.

Europe and Africa

The last window for ECB officials to communicate ahead of the February 2 interest rate decision will close on Thursday. At the same time, Eurozone data may give more indications of the health of the economy.

Officials are scheduled to appear several times before then, including Bank President Christine Lagarde, who pledged to the Davos audience that she would "stay the course" on monetary policy.

In Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz is now convinced a recession will be avoided, Wednesday's Ifo Business Confidence report is expected to show improvement across all measures. Meanwhile, the first estimate of Spain's GDP for the fourth quarter may reveal a slight expansion.

The UK faces a few quieter days than it has lately, with no monetary policy speakers from the Bank of England and the PMI survey and fiscal data among the only items expected.

And in Hungary, the central bank will set the base interest rate at a monthly meeting on Tuesday, as investors eye a possible pivot towards monetary easing at the depository tender two days later. To the east, Ukrainian officials are expected to keep their benchmark unchanged at 25%.

Regarding Africa, the Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to slow its monetary tightening on Tuesday, with an increase of 50 basis points. Inflation slowed unexpectedly in December, but remained well above the policy target, deterring saving.

On Wednesday, Mozambique's policymakers are likely to leave official borrowing costs unchanged for the second consecutive meeting as inflation expectations slow.

Having prepared early for its battle against the worst global inflation shock in a generation, the Reserve Bank of South Africa is also likely to slow its rate hike on Thursday. Investors expect a more than 80% chance of a rate hike of 25 basis points.

Latin America

On Tuesday, consumer price reports are likely to confirm the formidable challenge facing policymakers in the region's two largest economies.

On an annual basis, Brazil may record a gradual move down from the level of 5.9%, while the main and fundamental results in Mexico as a whole remain unchanged from their latest readings at 7.86% and 8.34%, respectively.

In Argentina, GDP data could be disappointing for a third month, with an overvalued peso and near triple-digit inflation threatening deflation in the fourth quarter.

All certainty, the Central Bank of Chile will keep its benchmark rate at a two-decade high of 11.25% for the second consecutive meeting on Thursday. Inflation that has reached 4 times the target as the economy slips into recession puts Central Bank President Rosana Costa in an awkward position.

Observers in Colombia largely expect the central bank to extend a record cycle of interest increases, with 12 consecutive rate hikes to 13%, in the face of the sharpest wave of inflation in a generation.

Surprisingly, Finance Minister Jose Antonio Ocampo, who is a voting member of the bank's board of directors, said on Tuesday that "the bank does not need to raise again and inflation has peaked, both of which contradict the bank's own polls of analysts."