Media review: Understanding Blinken's assessment of when Iran will produce a nuclear bomb and Haniyeh's assassination

Media review: Understanding Blinken's assessment of when Iran will produce a nuclear bomb and Haniyeh's assassination

    Friday, August 16, 2024   No comments

What do media reports and political statements about state-sanctioned assassinations and the war in Gaza mean in the big picture?

 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced, Friday July 19th, that Iran is capable of producing fissile material for a nuclear bomb "within a week or two."

Blinken said during a forum in Colorado (west) that "the current situation is not good. Iran, because of the end of the nuclear agreement, instead of being at least a year away from being able to produce fissile material for a nuclear bomb, is now probably a week or two away from being able to do so."

He explained that Tehran "has not developed a weapon yet, but we are watching this matter closely, of course."

Blinken reiterated that "a week or two" is the estimated time for Iran to be able to produce this fissile material for the purpose of making a nuclear bomb.

He said, "What we have seen in recent weeks and months is that Iran is moving forward with this" nuclear program, reiterating the United States' goal of Tehran never having a nuclear weapon, and "preferring the diplomatic path" to achieve this.

CNN, which reported the same news explained breakout time as being "the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon – “is now probably one or two weeks” as Tehran has continued to develop its nuclear program."

The US government statement was made about a month ago, July 18. If that assessment is correct, not only did Iran has more than two weeks to reach that goal, but also was given more reasons to achieve that goal when Israel carried out an attack inside Iran on 31 July 2024, that killed Hamas leader, Ismael Haniyeh who was attending the inauguration of the new president. Blinken assessment is significant for many reasons, including these two important reasons.

If US assessment is true, and given the recent development, by Wednesday August 14th, Iran would have had two weeks since the assassination, above and beyond the two weeks between Blinken's statement and the assassination, which is more than the time it needs to reach the stage per US government.  This means that, now, Iran is past the breakout time, and would have enough "weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon". 

If Iran does not produce "weapons grade material" then US assessment is flawed about Iran's ability or wrong about its intention to do so. 

In both cases, this recent development is bad news for Western governments because their next news cycle will be to address Iran with the reality of it possessing the nuclear material or having it and choosing not to build a nuclear weapons. In both cases, the nuclear threat would have moved past it being a threat, since it will be either a reality or a non-threat.

In the light of the nuclear development matter, Iran's delayed retaliation against Israel for the assassination of a Palestinian political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, could be the most strategic response. Iran would have used the timeline floated by high-ranking US official about the breakout time to either make it irrelevant or to create more uncertainty about Iran's capabilities.

The delay froze any conversation about Iran's nuclear program and perhaps allowed the Iranian leaders to add the nuclear option just in case Israel decides to retaliate against Iran's retaliation. Iran does not have to announce that they have a nuclear weapon at this point; Iran could adopt Israel’s strategic ambiguity about its nuclear capability and that would produce the same deterring effects as announcing that it has a nuclear weapon.

Taken in a broader context, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, in effect, was the best thing that could have happened for Iran for many reasons.

First, Iran now has the legal and moral ground to act on the principle of self-defense.

Second, by holding official religious prayers for the dead Sunni leader, Iran’s brand of Islam, Shia Islam, is no longer a fringe belief, as it has been portrayed by Saudi Salafists. The fact that Hamas leaders agreed to have two formal prayers, one in Tehran and one in Qatar, is remarkable in the view of experts on Sunni-Shia divide.

Third, Iran’s menu of retaliatory options has become more expansive. Iran could strike inside the 1948 border of Israel, since the attack on Haniyeh took place in Tehran. But Iran could hit targets and military concentrations in Gaza, which will highlight the above stated connections, and refocus attention on the primary objective that most governments around the world want to achieve: a ceasefire in Gaza War. Also, Iran could use a surgical strike against an Israeli leader or a military installation. Lastly, Iran’s leaders could forgo a military tactical strike in favor of a strategic decision to adopt a different nuclear posture and use the assassination as a justification for developing a last resort self-defense nuclear option, something it has been unable to do in the past.

When considered from these advantage points, it is clear that assassination is the least strategic statecraft tool, as it tends to diminish the standing and reputation of the state that rely on assassinations and bolster the strategic position of the state whose sovereignty has been violated--long-term. For these reasons, this event may end up being one of the most significant turning points of the century. 

  

Russia’s space nuclear weapon that does kill people but can paralyze global communication; what else can it do?

Russia’s space nuclear weapon that does kill people but can paralyze global communication; what else can it do?

    Sunday, February 18, 2024   No comments

The American newspaper "The New York Times" revealed concerns within the Biden administration after intelligence reports indicating that Russia was preparing to place a nuclear weapon in space. These concerns prompted US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to ask China and India to try to talk with Russia.

The newspaper says that American spy and intelligence agencies have discovered that Russia is working on a new type of space weapon that could threaten the thousands of satellites that keep the world connected, and that a launch is being prepared from Moscow to install a “nuclear weapon” in space that would cause a global catastrophe.

It is true that this weapon will not cause the destruction of humans, such as what would happen when used on Earth, but it will destroy satellites scattered in their various orbits, which will cause the collapse of global communications systems, and make everything from emergency services to cell phones to the regulation of generators and pumps It malfunctions, according to estimates by US agencies.

The newspaper adds: Debris resulting from the explosion will spread throughout low Earth orbit and make navigation difficult if not impossible for everything from Starlink satellites, used for Internet communications, to spy satellites.

US intelligence agencies believe that even if Russia were to place a nuclear weapon in orbit, US officials agree in their assessment that the weapon would not be detonated, but would remain like a time bomb in low orbit, as a reminder from Putin that if he was subjected to pressure sanctions or military resistance to his ambitions in Ukraine or elsewhere, it may destroy the economies of countries without targeting humans on the ground, according to what was reported by the New York Times.

The newspaper said that these estimates prompted US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to talk about them with his Chinese and Indian counterparts during the Munich Security Conference, which is currently underway.

 “Blinken’s message to China and India was clear: any nuclear explosion in space would destroy not only American satellites, but also those in Beijing and New Delhi,” the newspaper reports.

 Washington is counting on Beijing and New Delhi to exert the necessary pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, because the latter despises Washington and does not accept its intervention, especially since the escalation of tensions between the two sides since the invasion of Ukraine.

 Some intelligence officials have objected to sharing much of what the United States knows because details of the Russian program remain top secret, US officials said.

 But others argued that the United States needed to share enough to convince China and India of the seriousness of the threat.

 During the Munich meetings, the two men (the foreign ministers of China and India) took in the information, and the former repeated China's usual phrases about the importance of the peaceful use of outer space, the officials said.

 Representative Michael Waltz, Republican of Florida and a member of the House Intelligence Council, said: “Relying on our biggest adversary to deliver messages to Moscow is not a great exercise, but in this case, if the reports are true, China will have a special interest in getting the message across.”

Israeli media report: Iran can produce 7 nuclear bombs within 3 months and has enough enriched uranium to produce 6 more bombs within a few months

Israeli media report: Iran can produce 7 nuclear bombs within 3 months and has enough enriched uranium to produce 6 more bombs within a few months

    Thursday, June 01, 2023   No comments

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper quoted experts as saying that Iran can manufacture a nuclear bomb within 12 days, and has enough enriched uranium to produce 6 more bombs within a few months, “but this does not mean that it intends to do so and become a nuclear state.”

Yedioth said under the headline, “Iran has enough fissile material to make 7 atomic bombs in 3 months,” and that a week after revealing Iran’s progress in building a nuclear site that might be immune to bunker-busting bombs, and 5 years after the withdrawal of the former US president, Donald Trump, from the nuclear deal, an American nuclear expert estimates that Iran has the immediate ability to produce an atomic bomb, and if it used all its stock of enriched uranium, it could produce 7 bombs within a few months.

The American nuclear expert, David Albright, told the British magazine “The Economist” that satellite images show tunnels digging in the mountains near the Natanz nuclear site in central Iran, which may be at a depth of between 80 and 100 meters underground, which makes the mission of the GBU bombs difficult. -57, the main weapon of the US Army for the destruction of underground bunkers down to a depth of 60 meters.

Physicist Albright, the former chief US nuclear weapons inspector, estimated that the innermost part of the site could be used as a hall containing a small number of advanced centrifuges, which could quickly produce enough enriched uranium to the 90% level needed to produce a nuclear weapon.

The newspaper pointed out that the 2015 nuclear deal stipulates that Iran be a year away from producing enough material to make a bomb, but experts estimate that it may be able to do so immediately, and Albright believes that Tehran can enrich uranium by 90% required to produce a nuclear weapon within 12 years. just a day. To do this, it would need only three consecutive sets of advanced centrifuges and half of its current stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%.

In addition, according to estimates, Iran could enrich its uranium stockpile to the level of 90% to produce four atomic bombs within a month, and within another two months, use the low-enriched uranium to obtain material for two more bombs.