After the one-family rule collapses in Syria, Is Egypt's one man rule next?

After the one-family rule collapses in Syria, Is Egypt's one man rule next?

    Sunday, December 08, 2024   No comments

"Syria, Assad, wa-bass (and that is it), was no winning slogan. Future of country's cannot be built long-term on the basis of a single figure or a single family. What happened in Syria in the last 14 years is a good example of this political truith.

The fall of the single party single family rule in Syria has collapsed. Egypt's one man rule through the exclusion of any significant political force could put that regime on a path to weakness and possible collapse, too. These small steps by the government in Egypt may suggest their awareness of the dangers of exclusion.

Egypt's government releases political prisoners, Azhar welcomes the move

Al-Azhar welcomes Sisi’s directives to remove hundreds of people from terrorist lists and calls for investing in them and building on them.. A debate between those who welcome and those who are cautious and Amr Adeeb: Either us or the Brotherhood.

The repercussions of the decision to remove hundreds of Egyptians from terrorist lists are still ongoing, and no voice is louder than them.

The new thing was in the statement of the Grand Imam, Prof. Dr. Ahmed El-Tayeb, Sheikh of Al-Azhar Al-Sharif, and his deep welcome of the directives of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, President of the Republic, which paved the way for removing hundreds of people from the terrorist lists, and giving them the opportunity to start a new page to live normally in their homeland and reunite their families, stressing that it represents a good step, and everyone must invest in it and build on it; for the benefit of our beloved country, calling on God Almighty to preserve our Egypt, and protect it from all harm and evil.

Al-Azhar's statement was met with varying opinions, between those who welcomed it and those who expressed reservations about it.

These developments cannot be understood in isolation from what has been happening in Syria. Arab rulers and governments of neighboring countries are fact-spinning the development to limit their wider effects.

Of note, Egyptian media reported that security forces arrested a group of Syrians in Egypt after they participated in celebrations of the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Turkey's Fidan: The Syrian opposition must unite and form a new, non-exclusionary administration

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stressed that "the new Syria should not pose a threat to its neighbors, but should eliminate threats."

Fidan called from Doha for "establishing a new Syrian administration that is non-exclusionary and without a desire for revenge", and for preserving Syrian institutions, and also called for "the opposition forces to unite."

He pointed out that "the Syrian opposition forces consist of different groups, but the coordination mechanism will improve in the coming days."

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced that “a 14-year era of instability in Syria has ended,” noting that “Ankara does not know anything about the fate of President Bashar al-Assad.” Fidan revealed in a press conference held today that “the Syrian regime could have taken advantage of the opportunity of the Astana talks to reach national reconciliation, but it did not want to,” noting that “President Recep Tayyip Erdogan extended his hand to achieve unity in Syria, but the Syrian regime refused.” At the same time, Fidan expressed his country’s concern about “organizations such as ISIS that may exploit these developments in Syria, and Turkey is closely monitoring them to ensure that they do not control any parts of Syria in any way, and we are coordinating with friends such as the United States in this regard.” Regarding the Kurdistan Workers' Party, Fidan said, "Any extension or expansion of the Kurdistan Workers' Party militia cannot be considered a legitimate entity in Syria, and America is aware of the sensitivity of our position towards it." He continued, "The PKK cannot be part of the Syrian opposition and factions, because they are not Syrian factions, but terrorist factions, and everyone knows that, so there will be no cooperation with them at all." He stressed that "Turkey will take appropriate measures towards any threats."

Iran calls for Syria's fate to be determined and a government formed "without foreign interference"

Iran called for "determining the fate" of Syria's future, and forming an inclusive government that represents all segments of the Syrian people, "without destructive foreign interference or external imposition," stressing that it is "the exclusive right of the Syrians."

The Iranian Foreign Ministry indicated that it will closely monitor developments in Syria and the region, and will take appropriate positions based on the ongoing analysis of the performance of influential players in the Syrian political and security arena.

It also stressed respect for Syria's unity, governance, and territorial integrity, pointing to supporting Syria's stability and security through cooperation with all active parties in the region.

It explained that achieving stability "requires ending military conflicts quickly, preventing terrorist acts, and starting national dialogues with the participation of all components of society, with the aim of forming an inclusive government that represents all segments of the Syrian people."

The Iranian statement also stressed the importance of ensuring the security of Syrian citizens and nationals of other countries, and protecting holy and diplomatic sites in accordance with international laws.

Iran affirmed its continued support for the United Nations mechanisms, under Resolution 2254, to support the political process in Syria.

It also expressed its keenness to continue historical relations and friendship with Syria on the basis of common interests and commitment to international conventions.

Iranian Ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, said that "the Israeli Prime Minister is now expressing his happiness at the removal of one of his enemies," but he pointed out Benjamin Netanyahu's concern that the new forces "may pose an additional threat to him."

Akbari said in a live televised call with state television that "the Syrian Council of Ministers decided in its session last night to avoid any confrontations in Damascus and to hand over power and government peacefully, which was confirmed by the Syrian Prime Minister in a statement addressed to the people and the armed forces."

He added: "Bashar al-Assad's crime was his support for the axis of resistance, and today there are multiple currents inside Syria, some of which are extremist, even if they differ from (ISIS) in some beliefs."

Akbari pointed out that "the current situation in Syria has produced complex alignments between the northern and southern forces, which may turn the country into an arena for conflict between some Arab and Islamic countries and Turkey."

Akbari continued that "Netanyahu considers this a personal gain for him, but at the same time he is concerned that the stability and strength of the new forces in Syria may pose an additional threat to him."

Akbari explained that “these concerns stem from the lack of guarantees for the establishment of a strong and disciplined government in Syria, and from ethnic and ideological divisions, in addition to the possibility of Syria turning into an arena for conflict between regional countries.” He added: “These conditions may destabilize the central government and create cross-border threats.”

Pentagon official: Our presence in eastern Syria is to prevent the return of ISIS

A Pentagon official said that "the presence of US forces in eastern Syria is not related to other aspects of the conflict in the country," stressing "continuing to take the necessary measures to defend our forces and our partners" and to maintain this presence "which aims only to ensure the sustainability of the defeat of ISIS and prevent its resurgence." In an interview with Reuters today, he called on all parties in Syria to "protect civilians, especially minorities, respect international standards and work to reach a comprehensive political settlement," stressing the continuation of "close consultations with partners in the region affected by this crisis to support their security needs."

Statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry: 

'We are following the dramatic events in Syria with extreme concern. As a result of negotiations between Bashar al-Assad and a number of participants in the armed conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, he decided to leave the presidential post and left the country, giving instructions to transfer power peacefully

Russia did not participate in these negotiations. At the same time, we appeal to all parties involved with a strong call to renounce the use of violence and resolve all governance issues by political means.

In this regard, the Russian Federation is in contact with all groups of the Syrian opposition. We call for respect for the opinions of all ethno-confessional forces of Syrian society, and support efforts to establish an inclusive political process based on the unanimously adopted UN Security Council Resolution 2254. 

We expect that these approaches will be taken into account by the UN and all interested players, including in the context of the implementation of the initiative of the UN Secretary General's Special Representative for Syria, Georg Pedersen, to urgently organize inter-Syrian inclusive negotiations in Geneva.

At the same time, all necessary measures are being taken to ensure the safety of our citizens in Syria. Russian military bases in Syria are on high alert. There is currently no serious threat to their security.'

Statement by some Arab leaders meeting in Doha

Future of Syria based on post-Assad Syria: Kurds, Islamist, and everyone else

The bigger picture: how (in)stability in Syria could impact a region with uneasy borders

Syria and the "Arab Spring" 2.0

Syria and the "Arab Spring" 2.0

    Friday, December 06, 2024   No comments

The popular uprising that broke in the Southwest Asian and North African, SWANA, in 2011, that transformed the region was frozen ten years later, especially in Syria and Yemen. Syria, after ten years of war, saw some calm since 2021, with the country still divided into three areas of control: one under "Sunni" rebels supported by Turkey and Qatar controlling the northwest, a second under Kurdish control in the northeast supported by the US, and the rest of Syria controlled by the Syrian government supported by Russia and Iran. On November 27 of this year, the calm was shattered when the Turkish backed armed groups regained major cities they lost in 2017-19. The crisis is unlikely to be resolved short of outside strong intervention, which is also unlikely, given that the outside actors are now busy dealing with new crises centers. So, for the foreseeable future, there are two possible paths forward. The various faction will continue to fight, but unlikely that one will prevail over the other two. Alternatively, a reshuffle of the alliances internally will consolidate some power leading to a stalemate, which will force all three sides to negotiate a deal that preserve the gains and interests of all ethnic, religious, sectarian, and ideological groups. That seem to be the realization of some world and regional powers, though not all think they have to give anything to dial down violence.

Erdogan: We hope that the Syrian "opposition" factions will continue their progress.. and the goal is Damascus

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he hopes that the progress of what he called the "opposition" in Syria will continue "without problems," considering that the next "target" after the armed factions took control of Idlib, Hama and Homs, "is Damascus."

Erdogan's words came in press statements, and he added: "We had invited Assad (Syrian President Bashar al-Assad)... and we told him: Let us determine the future of Syria together. Unfortunately, we did not receive a positive response on this issue."

Recently, Syria's permanent representative to the United Nations, Qusay al-Dahhak, confirmed that the terrorist attack on northern Syria could not have been carried out without a green light and a joint Turkish-Israeli operational order paved by repeated Israeli attacks on Syrian territory.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad also confirmed his country's insistence on eradicating terrorism, stressing that terrorists do not represent a people or institutions, but rather the apparatuses that support them.

Foreign Ministers of Iraq, Syria and Iran: Protecting Syria's Security is Necessary to Protect the Security of the Region

The foreign ministers of Iraq, Syria and Iran stressed on Friday that "threatening Syria's security poses a general danger to the stability of the entire region," stressing that "there is no choice but to coordinate, cooperate and consult diplomatically continuously, in order to eliminate all risks of escalation in the region."

In a joint statement following the meeting at the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, the ministers stressed "the seriousness of the events in Syria and their sensitivity to all parties in the region," warning of "the possibility of their expanding dimensions, which will pose a grave danger to the three countries and threaten the security of their peoples and the entire region."

The ministers also urged "the need to mobilize all Arab, regional and international efforts to reach peaceful solutions to the challenges facing the region in general, and Syria in particular."

In addition, the statement stressed "the agreement on the need to continue consultation and coordination between the three countries, follow up on these developments and prepare for any developments in the coming days," and respect for Syria's sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity.

They also condemned "terrorism in all its forms and manifestations classified by the Security Council," stressing "collective action to confront it." They also condemned the ongoing Israeli attacks on Syria, Gaza and Lebanon.

Media Review: What will Hezbollah and Iran do and what might happen in the Middle East after Beirut Attacks?

Media Review: What will Hezbollah and Iran do and what might happen in the Middle East after Beirut Attacks?

    Sunday, September 29, 2024   No comments

In about a week, Israel turned electronic devices into weapons, assassinated military and political leaders, and launched arial bombings in Lebanon injuring thousands and killing hundreds, including the leader of the Lebanese group Hezbollah. Media reports about these unprecedented events vary. Governments’ reactions also vary. A review of how the global media and governments reacted will provide some context. The media review is prefaced by some thoughts about what might happen next, given the current events and given the expressed reactions as reported by media outlets. 

Israeli leaders claim that what they did will usher in a new Middle East. Israel has crossed so many red lines to achieve these stated goals: Destroy Hamas, Hezbollah, and all other affiliated groups. But they don't seem to have an answer for what their plan, long term, is for Palestinians. Instead they seem to focus on Iran. That is where it becomes clear that the current military success is just tactical success and it is not hard to achieve given the superior firepower and military technology the state of Israel enjoys, not to mention the unlimited supply of weapons the US government has provided thus far. However, strategically, this could be seen in the very near future as the moment when Israel forced the Iranian leaders to make a serious strategic shift. Here is why.

Iranian leaders have recently described Israeli leaders' actions as a form of "insanity", for crossing all legal, diplomatic, and ethical boundaries. Given that Israel is believed to have a stockpile of nuclear weapons, in the view of Iranian leaders, such "insane" leaders will not hesitate in using nuclear weapons against Iran. After all, some members of the Israeli government have publicly threatened to use nuclear weapons in Gaza.  If Iran did not take that threat seriously in the past, the recent actions must have changed their nuclear posture. 

Recalling that US assessed in June of this year that Iran was a week to a week and a half from breakout point in developing nuclear weapons capability, if Iran does not respond in the way it responded in the past, attacking with rockets and drones, the US and Israel should worry. Their non-response could mean a muted strategic response, whereby the religious authorities rescind earlier directives not to develop nuclear weapons and issue a new one that would speedup the development of nuclear weapons capabilities, at least for deterrence purposes. Such development would place the world on a path towards catastrophe, not just because of the potential for nuclear incident in the Middle East, but globally given that Russia's president just warned that Russia will change its nuclear posture if Western governments-supplied weapons to Ukraine are used to strike deep inside Russia.

Based on some Iranian media coverage, turning communication devices into discriminate weapons and killing religious figures is a form of nuclear strike without using a nuclear weapon. Some Iranians are now convinced that Israel will use nuclear weapons against their country. This is what will create a strategic shift in the region, not wining a war against non-state actors In Gaza and Lebanon without a plan for a political settlement with the Palestinians.

Türkiye: Erdogan denounces Congress' reception of 'Hitler of our time'

Türkiye: Erdogan denounces Congress' reception of 'Hitler of our time'

    Friday, July 26, 2024   No comments

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced the US Congress' hosting of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Erdogan said on Friday during an introductory meeting on the high-tech promotion program at the Ataturk Cultural Center in Istanbul, "Imagine that Congress applauds a murderer who has killed nearly 40,000 children, women and elderly people," in full view of the entire world.

He described Netanyahu as "a murderer and perpetrator of genocide against the Palestinian people," in the war that the occupation has been waging for nearly 10 months on the Gaza Strip.

Erdogan added that those who "have always taught the world lessons in democracy and human rights" "did not feel an ounce of shame while celebrating the Hitler of our time."

On Wednesday, Netanyahu delivered a speech before Congress amidst mass demonstrations against his visit to Washington and denouncing the Israeli war of extermination against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

Netanyahu focused on attacking the demonstrations against him and the war, claiming that "Iran is funding the demonstrators outside Congress now" and that they also want to destroy the United States" during a large part of his speech.

 

Media Review: The key to calm with Lebanon is in Gaza, and Israeli plans to divide the Strip

Media Review: The key to calm with Lebanon is in Gaza, and Israeli plans to divide the Strip

    Tuesday, July 02, 2024   No comments

International newspapers and news websites have highlighted Israeli plans to divide the Gaza Strip into separate security zones, the repercussions of an open war between Israel and Lebanon if it breaks out, and the way to calm down on that front.

The American newspaper "Wall Street Journal" spoke about Israeli plans to divide the Gaza Strip into islands and separate security zones in which unsuspecting Palestinians live, allowing the Israeli army to move freely.

The newspaper indicated that retired Israeli officers, academics, and politicians participated in formulating these ideas, and pointed out that these plans reveal harsh facts, including that the Palestinians may remain besieged indefinitely in narrow areas of the Strip.

In turn, the French newspaper "Le Monde" discussed Britain's efforts to prevent the International Criminal Court from issuing arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Galant.

The newspaper wondered about London's intentions in doing so and whether it was a maneuver to buy time, noting that Attorney General Karim Khan's request to issue an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Galant was not welcomed in Western capitals, especially Washington.

While the National Interest website believes that all the scenarios proposed between the Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel indicate that war has become inevitable, the website quoted writer Alexandre Langlois warning that if war breaks out, it will drag the United States into it and destroy the entire Middle East.

Meanwhile, the Swiss newspaper Le Temps editorial said that the key to calm in Lebanon lies in Gaza, explaining that the war between Israel and Hezbollah seems imminent, but the solution to avoid it is also clear, which is to put an end to the war in Gaza.

The newspaper added that the Americans know this and are trying to bypass Netanyahu in favor of his political rival Yoav Galant, and the Europeans are also aware of this but are content with warning their citizens of the dangers, according to the newspaper.

A report by the Washington Post also addressed the conditions of the Palestinians in Gaza who were able to flee to Egypt, and said that they survived the war but are unable to build a future for themselves, adding that most of them live in a state of confusion without a clear legal status and without hope of reaching another destination.

Regarding the situation in the West Bank, an investigation published by the New York Times revealed the great panic and terror that Palestinians are subjected to at the hands of settlers, noting that this violence, unlike what is prevalent in many parts of the world, is supported by the state and carried out with American weapons.

Media review: NYT's Friedman, "Biden must push Israel to accept Hamas' demands"

Media review: NYT's Friedman, "Biden must push Israel to accept Hamas' demands"

    Tuesday, June 18, 2024   No comments

American journalist Thomas Friedman confirmed that the Israeli occupation entity is currently living in "existential danger", at a time when the axis of resistance has managed to "tighten its grip on Israel", while "the latter has no military or diplomatic response".

In an opinion piece he wrote in the American newspaper "The New York Times", Friedman warned of the danger of war with Hezbollah on "Israel", noting that the Islamic resistance in Lebanon is armed with precision missiles capable of destroying large areas of the Israeli infrastructure.

Friedman explained that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "leads Israel, while he must remain in power, in order to avoid the possibility of being sent to prison on corruption charges", at a time when the occupation faces the possibility of war breaking out on several fronts.

According to him, Netanyahu, in order to remain in power and avoid prison, "sold his soul in order to form a government with right-wing extremists, who insist that Israel must fight in Gaza until Hamas is eliminated, in order to achieve complete victory", as they claim.

Now, the Israeli "war cabinet" has collapsed, due to "Netanyahu's lack of a plan to end the war and safely withdraw from the Gaza Strip," while "extremists in his government coalition are looking forward to their next steps to reach power," according to Friedman.

While the American journalist pointed out that these extremist ministers "caused a lot of damage," he warned that "no friend (of Israel) should participate in this circus," as he described it.

In this context, Friedman stressed the need to form a new government in "Israel" and remove Netanyahu from the position of Prime Minister, through new elections.

The American journalist also expressed his support for what former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak confirmed in the American newspaper Haaretz last Thursday, which is that "Israel is facing the most serious crisis in its history."

In light of this, Friedman warned that "every American should be concerned about this matter," explaining that it represents "a recipe for dragging the United States into a war in the Middle East to help Israel."

In this context, Friedman believed that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken "should not make another trip to the Middle East without the agreement of both Israel and Hamas on a clear plan to end the war."

While acknowledging the need for US President Joe Biden to push the occupation to submit to Hamas's conditions to stop the war, Friedman stressed that "Biden must tell Israel that it must accept Hamas's main demand: to end the war completely now, and withdraw from the Gaza Strip, in exchange for the return of all Israeli prisoners."

Friedman believed that ending the war in the Gaza Strip would "lead to reaching an agreement mediated by the US with Hezbollah, in order to calm the war on the northern border."

He added that Netanyahu's idea that some Palestinians, who do not belong to Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, will run the place for "Israel" is "a fantasy." In light of all this, the American journalist stressed that "Israel must leave Gaza," while the head of the Hamas movement in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, continues to run the Strip.

Friedman argued his point of view without even mentioning the human cost of this reckless war that civilians in Gaza have endured for more than 250 days and that may last for months more.

Hezbollah displays extremely important scenes of military sites and sensitive facilities in Isael: "This is what the hoopoe brought back"

Hezbollah displays extremely important scenes of military sites and sensitive facilities in Isael: "This is what the hoopoe brought back"

    Tuesday, June 18, 2024   No comments

Multiple media outlets, including Aljazeera, reported about the release of drone footage captured by Hezbollah showing many sensitive sites with extreme details. This display of capability might be what prompted France and the US to start a mission to dial down the tension at the border between Hezbollah and Israel.

Regional media outlets reported that the war media of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon - Hezbollah, published a very important video clip from the occupied Palestinian territories, under the title "This is what the hoopoe brought back." In a long clip that exceeded 9 and a half minutes, Hezbollah's war media showed scenes of an aerial reconnaissance of areas in northern Kiryat Shmona, Nahariya, Safed Karmiel, Afula, and all the way to Haifa and its port. The scenes included intelligence information about "Israeli" sites inside occupied Palestine, and the scenes showed the drone's arrival at the port of Haifa and what it monitored of sensitive sites in Haifa from the port to the oil refineries and military factories, in addition to the locations of the warships, and important economic sites in the port of Haifa.

Among the sites shown in the scenes is the Rafael Military Industries Complex, a military industrial zone affiliated with Rafael, which includes a large number of factories, warehouses and testing fields, where components of effective air defense systems are manufactured and assembled, especially the Iron Dome and David's Sling.

 The Rafael Military Industries Complex area is considered extremely sensitive and secret, and its total area is 6.5 square kilometers and it is 24 kilometers from the Lebanese border.

 In addition to a complete and high-resolution view of the complex, the scenes clearly showed: - Several Iron Dome platforms, - A rocket engine test tunnel, - Rocket engine warehouses, - Air defense missile warehouses, - Missile component manufacturing facilities, - David's Sling platforms, - Control and guidance systems factories, - The company's administrative buildings, in addition to missile testing radars.

The scenes also showed a real-time, high-resolution tour of the entire Haifa port and the surrounding area.  The scenes accurately showed: -Ship maintenance hangars, -Computing Unit 3800 building of the Haifa Naval Base, -The main warehouse and supply department in the Haifa base basin, -The Deep Sea Missions Unit (Yeltam) building, -Buildings belonging to the submarine unit, -The submarine dock and berth, -The submarine unit command building (Shayetet 7).

 The resistance's war media also monitored warships in the Haifa port, including: -The logistical support ship "Batiyam", -The "Sa'ar 4.5" ships, -The "Devora" boats, -The "Sa'ar 6" ships, -The "Sa'ar 5" ships, -The "Sa'ar 4.5".

 In addition to the "Carmel Pier", -Container ships and work in the port, -The "Mizrahi Pier".

 The party said that the video clip was filmed by its drones that were able to "bypass the enemy's air defense systems and return without being detected by its means."

 The scenes in the video included sensitive Israeli sites, including military bases, weapons and missile stores, seaports, and airports in the city of Haifa, located 27 kilometers from the Lebanese border.

 Before the full video was published, Hezbollah's war media published a promotional clip for the video under the title "Wait for what the hoopoe returned with." The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon attached the clip with the phrase “the first episode,” indicating more scenes that it will show later, confirming that the drone had bypassed the Israeli occupation’s air defenses and returned without being detected.

 Major General Wassef Erekat said that Israel's description of the video as very dangerous confirms the strength of the resistance and its ability to respond in kind and its superiority in the field of accuracy and information.

 Israeli media commented on the Hezbollah video saying, "The new documents are the most disturbing since the beginning of the war, and Haifa can be seen in them."

 The military correspondent for Israel's Channel 14 said that Hezbollah "publishes unusual documents from deep within 'Israeli territory' and shows Israeli targets and even from the port of Haifa and the naval base."

 He added, "The capabilities demonstrated by the Hezbollah organization have left a wide gap between the military and security."

 Earlier, Amos Hochstein, the US President's advisor, warned Israel of a possible Iranian attack that would be difficult to repel due to the ongoing confrontation between Tel Aviv and the Lebanese Hezbollah. This came during his meetings with Israeli officials yesterday, Monday, according to what the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported today, Tuesday.

 On Monday, Hochstein visited Tel Aviv as part of efforts to calm the confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah on the border with Lebanon after they escalated significantly last week.

 The American envoy met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog, opposition leader Yair Lapid, and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant.

 The Israeli newspaper said that Hochstein warned of the possibility that the war with Hezbollah would lead to a large-scale Iranian attack on Israel that would be difficult for Israeli defense systems to repel, accompanied by the possibility of large-scale fire by Hezbollah in Lebanon.

 It pointed out that Hochstein's visit coincided with Hezbollah's halting of its attacks on Israel on the occasion of Eid al-Adha (which began on Sunday).

 It said, "The American envoy hopes to exploit the period of cessation in the exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel to try to set a framework for a future ceasefire agreement between the two sides."

 Before going to Israel, the American envoy met Lebanese leaders and they told him that there is nothing to discuss about the situation at the border without stopping the war in Gaza. US envoy Amos Hochstein confirmed from Beirut that the situation on the Lebanese border with occupied Palestine is extremely dangerous, speaking about continuing efforts to stop the escalation to avoid expanding the war.

 Hochstein said, after meeting with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, that "the dispute on both sides of the Blue Line has continued for a long time, and it is in everyone's interest to stop it," adding that "everyone is concerned with resolving the matter diplomatically."

 He described the situation in Lebanon as "very delicate," considering that "the dispute has gone too far."

 He added that the ceasefire in Gaza ends the war and "opens the way for diplomatic solutions, and this may also put an end to the conflict along the Blue Line," stressing that the calm on the border will allow the return of residents to southern Lebanon.

 Hochstein explained that the talks he held today in Beirut, and yesterday in the occupying entity, "aimed to avoid further escalation and expansion of the war."

 The US envoy discussed with Berri, in the presence of the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Lisa Johnson, the situation in southern Lebanon, noting that there is an initiative to cease fire in Gaza that includes the release of prisoners. Hochstein said about this initiative that it "has received approval from Israel, Egypt and Qatar, and Hamas must say if it agrees to the initiative," noting that the ceasefire will also extend to Lebanon.

 Following his meeting with the caretaker Prime Minister of Lebanon, Najib Mikati, Hochstein said: "We are going through dangerous times and critical moments, and we are working together to try to find ways to reach a place where we prevent further escalation."

 He described the discussions that took place with Mikati, in the presence of Johnson, as "good."

 For his part, Mikati stressed that Beirut is not seeking escalation, announcing that what is required is to stop the Israeli aggression and "return to calm on the southern border."

 He said, "We are continuing to seek to stop the escalation, restore security and stability, and stop the ongoing violations of Lebanese sovereignty, and the systematic killing and destruction committed by Israel."

 Mikati stressed that "the ongoing Israeli threats to Lebanon will not deter us from continuing to seek to establish calm," noting that this is a priority for Lebanon and its "friends."

 In addition, the Commander of the Lebanese Army, General Joseph Aoun, received Hochstein in his office in Yarzeh in the presence of Johnson, and the general situation in the country and the region and developments on the southern border were discussed.

 Hochstein pointed out that he came to Beirut at the request of US President Joe Biden.

Side Effects of Iran's Retaliatory Strike on Israel: Iraqi Kurdistan now wants security talks in Iran after years of tensions

Side Effects of Iran's Retaliatory Strike on Israel: Iraqi Kurdistan now wants security talks in Iran after years of tensions

    Monday, May 06, 2024   No comments

It may escape many, but the connection between Iran’s strike on Israel in retaliation for the latter’s attack on its diplomatic building in Syria is forcing many of Iran’s neighbors to pay attention to Iran. 

First, there were the media reports that revealed that UAE asked the US not to use any of its assets in the country to attack Iran or its assets in the region. US government moved military equipment to Qatar, which will be under renewed pressure also to make similar demand given its proximity to Iran. UAE demand from US make it a neutral party in any military confrontation in the region which would devastate its economic standing and the infrastructure it has built for decades. Simply put: UAE, and Dubai in particular, have built too many glass buildings for it to through stones at its neighbors or to allow others to throw stones from inside UAE.

Now, comes Iraqi Kurdistan: for years, they benefited from the shield provided to them by the US military and ignored Iran’s requests to reign in armed factions operating from its territories. Iran has struck Kurdish regions in the past; but now that Iran struck US bases in Iraq four years ago and Israel targets weeks ago, Kurdish leaders are reaching out to Iranian leaders to seek security arrangements.

The President of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region (IKR), Nechirvan Barzani, visited Tehran on 6 May for security talks with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi. 

During the meeting, Raisi stressed the necessity of disarming groups hostile to the Islamic Revolution and not having them present on Iraqi territory.

Raisi stated, “We expect the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government [KRG] to categorically prevent any exploitation of the region’s soil against Iran by the Israeli enemy and anti-revolutionary elements.”

The relationship between Tehran and Erbil has been strained by Kurdish militant groups that use the KRG as a base to attack Iran, and Iranian claims that Israel’s intelligence service, the Mossad, maintains covert bases in the Kurdish region.

Iran has struck Kurdish militant training camps and Mossad headquarters, including in Erbil, with missiles in the past year.

The Iranian president explained that “Iran has no objection to expanding cooperation with the Iraqi Kurdistan region on security grounds,” adding, “We consider the long border between the two sides to be a valuable opportunity to improve the level of relations, but security is the basis for any cooperation or development in relations.”

Barzani expressed his commitment to the entire security agreement between Iran and Iraq.

He stated that “respect for our relations with Iran and its support for us in difficult times is a red line that we will not cross.”

Dilshad Shahab, the spokesperson for the Kurdistan Region presidency, said that President Barzani wants to reaffirm to Erbil’s allies that the IKR will never become a source of threat to the interests of its neighbors, especially Iran.

“It is no secret that there has been a kind of coldness in these [Erbil–Tehran] relations in recent times; we want to be assured that the common interests of both sides outweigh the obstacles that may arise,” Shahab told Rudaw’s Sangar Abdulrahman.

During his visit to Tehran, Barzani met with a number of Iranian officials, led by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ali Khamenei.

Saudi Arabia UAE--two allies no longer able to solve their problems on their own

Saudi Arabia UAE--two allies no longer able to solve their problems on their own

    Tuesday, April 16, 2024   No comments

Disagreements in secret come to light with the Saudi complaint to the United Nations due to a border dispute.. “Al Yasat” is showing that the two allies and regional economic powers no longer able to solve their problems on their own.

In a letter addressed to the United Nations, Saudi Arabia accused Abu Dhabi of encroaching on the Kingdom’s borders, through the UAE authorities issuing an Emiri decree in 2019, declaring Al Yasat a “marine protected area.”

The complaint indicated that Saudi Arabia does not recognize any measures or practices taken, or their consequences, by the UAE government in the area off the Saudi coast, the “Al Yasat area,” including the Kingdom’s territorial sea and the area of joint sovereignty on the two islands of Makasib.

The UAE demanded the completion of implementation of Article Five of the agreement demarcating the land and sea borders dated between the two countries in 1974.

Riyadh considered the memorandum official, and also called on the United Nations to circulate it to the members of the United Nations, according to established procedures.

This step, according to Gulf affairs experts, means that both Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are no longer able to solve their problems on their own, or within Gulf frameworks such as the Gulf Cooperation Council or Arab ones such as the Arab League, and that the dispute has reached the United Nations, the highest international body for conflict resolution. The issue of the “Al Yasat” region is not the only controversial issue between the two countries, as there is something bigger than it, according to what experts point out. The dispute over the “Shaybah” oil field is considered one of the most prominent headlines at the core of the border disputes, and the silent struggle between the two countries over influence in Yemen. Both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh were unable to hide it, or solve it through understandings, and it remained like fire under the ashes. The UAE’s support for the Transitional Council in Yemen, its efforts to divide it north and south, and its fight against the Islah Party, are all actions that worry Riyadh, and push it to thwart Emirati projects and stand up to them. Although the conflict has so far been in its silent and hidden context, most odds say that the clash is not coming. A dispute between groups affiliated with both parties in Yemen.

These are some of the forces that are reshaping a critical region in the world, Southwest Asia and North Africa, the center of gravity of human civilizations for thousands of years,

  

Media Review: The National Interest calls on Biden to return soldiers from Syria and Iraq: stop making them targets

Media Review: The National Interest calls on Biden to return soldiers from Syria and Iraq: stop making them targets

    Wednesday, January 03, 2024   No comments

The American magazine "National Interest" criticized the foreign policy of US President Joe Biden, and his involvement of the United States in endless conflicts at the expense of the interests of the nation and the well-being of the army.

In an article entitled “Joe Biden Should Stop Treating American Soldiers as Targets” published, Tuesday, the magazine stated that attacks on American bases in Iraq and Syria with mortar shells, drones, and missiles have become routine (more than 100 since October 17). It caused dozens of injuries.

The magazine considered that the claim of National Security Council spokeswoman Adrian Watson that “the president does not place a higher priority than protecting American soldiers” is clear nonsense, because they are still being injured in Iraq and Syria without clear strategic goals, and that 2,500 Americans are stationed in Iraq, And 900 others are in Syria, with no clear purpose other than to be targets for enemies.

The magazine feared a larger strike that might hit a crowded building, with many American deaths expected, forcing the United States to fight another war in the Middle East, questioning the legal justification for occupying Syrian territory, mocking the slogan of “self-defense” on this front.

It considered that Washington's policy, supported by successive administrations and Congress, aimed at starving the Syrian people in a futile attempt to pressure Damascus, is morally abhorrent and practically foolish.

The magazine concluded by emphasizing the need for American military personnel in Iraq to also return to their homeland, instead of remaining a suitable target, considering that “the security of the United States is not served by illegal intervention and endless war, and that America is best served by avoiding involvement in conflicts that are of little importance to us.” "For the United States."

Iran and Saudi Arabia are discussing canceling the visa and developing tourism relations

Iran and Saudi Arabia are discussing canceling the visa and developing tourism relations

    Saturday, September 30, 2023   No comments

The Iranian government announced today, Saturday, the continuation of Iranian and Saudi efforts to develop tourism relations.

Iranian Deputy Minister

of Cultural Heritage and Tourism, Maryam Jalali Dehkerdi, who is currently in Riyadh to participate in World Tourism Day activities, said, “Ideas were exchanged with the Saudi Deputy Minister of Tourism for International Relations and Foreign Tourism, Sultan Al-Musallam, about ways to remove obstacles to the development of... Tourism relations between the two countries, and the cancellation of the visa between the two countries,” according to what the Iranian “ISNA” agency reported.

Jalali invited the Saudi Minister of Tourism to visit Iran.

On September 23, the Iranian President congratulated Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz and the Crown Prince on the occasion of the Kingdom’s Saudi National Day, in two separate telegrams.

Raisi expressed his hope that “relations will witness further expansion in all fields, in light of the efforts between the two countries.”

It is noteworthy that the Iranian President had confirmed during his meeting with the Saudi Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan, on June 17 that there is no reason to prevent the development of relations with Islamic countries, pointing out the importance of developing relations with Riyadh and that the interest of the two peoples requires dealing between the two countries.

On June 6, Tehran officially opened the Iranian Embassy in Riyadh, the Iranian Consulate General in Jeddah, and the Permanent Representation of Iran to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

Last March, Riyadh and Tehran announced their agreement to resume diplomatic relations, after years of estrangement.

The Syrian and Chinese presidents sign a strategic cooperation agreement

The Syrian and Chinese presidents sign a strategic cooperation agreement

    Friday, September 22, 2023   No comments

On Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad signed the Syrian-Chinese strategic cooperation agreement.

Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed that Beijing is ready to develop cooperation with Syria and jointly defend international justice under conditions of instability.

During his meeting with his Syrian counterpart, in the Chinese city of Khanzhou, Xi said that China and Syria are moving towards announcing the establishment of strategic partnership relations, adding that this will be an important turning point in the history of bilateral relations in the face of unstable international situations.

Xi confirmed that Syria is one of the first countries to establish relations with the new China, adding that it was one of the countries that proposed a draft resolution to restore China's seat in the United Nations.

The Chinese President stressed that Syrian-Chinese relations have withstood changes in international situations for 67 years, and the friendship between the two countries remains solid over time.

The Chinese President also announced his country's keenness to continuously make joint efforts to exchange firm support between the two countries and enhance cooperation between them to defend international justice and peace.

In turn, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stated that his country looks forward to China's constructive role in the international arena and rejects all attempts to weaken this role.

Al-Assad expressed his happiness at visiting China, which stands with the just causes of peoples, based on the legal, humanitarian and moral principles that form the basis of Chinese policy in international forums and which are based on the independence of countries and respect for the will of the people.

Al-Assad pointed out that this visit is important in its timing and circumstances, as a multipolar world is forming today that will restore balance and stability to the world, and it is the duty of all of us to seize this moment for the sake of a bright and promising future.

The Syrian President thanked President Xi and the Chinese government for what it did to stand by the Syrian people in their cause and suffering, wishing the Chinese people more scientific, civilizational and humanitarian victories.

Yesterday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said in a press conference: “We believe that President Bashar al-Assad’s visit will lead to a deepening of mutual political trust and cooperation in various fields between the two countries, and the advancement of bilateral relations to new heights.”

The Syrian President arrived at Khanzhou Airport in China yesterday, Thursday, in his first official visit to the country in nearly two decades, at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

In 2021, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Damascus on an official visit to enhance cooperation between China and Syria. This was the first visit by a high-ranking Chinese official since the start of the war on Syria.

Chinese media. often reflecting the thinking of Chinese leaders, suggest that China's investment in Syria is likely to be in transportation and other infrastructure projects and that such investments will be protected from Western sanctions by using yuan for related transaction.

Amir Abdollahian receives Hakan Fidan: Research on bilateral and regional issues, preparation for a trilateral summit of Iran-Saudi Arabia-Turkiye is underway

Amir Abdollahian receives Hakan Fidan: Research on bilateral and regional issues, preparation for a trilateral summit of Iran-Saudi Arabia-Turkiye is underway

    Sunday, September 03, 2023   No comments

Today, Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian received his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan, who is on his first visit to Tehran since taking office.

The two ministers, well versed in security backgrounds, met in a private meeting that lasted about an hour and a half, before extensive discussions were held between the two delegations.

Fidan is scheduled to hold talks with several Iranian officials as well. The Fars news agency reported yesterday that Fidan will hold talks in Tehran with Iranian officials on regional and international issues of common concern.

A statement by the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Amir Abdollahian had previously invited Fidan to visit Iran, noting that the important visit comes to discuss more bilateral cooperation in various fields, as well as to discuss regional and international developments.

It pointed out that Fidan's visit to Tehran comes two days after his visit to Moscow and his meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, and another visit to Iraq.

Iran and Turkey have economic and political relations, despite their differing positions on a number of files, especially on the conflict in Syria and relations with Azerbaijan, Iran's neighbor.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian confirmed today, Sunday, that he had discussed with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan the agreements signed between Tehran and Ankara, confirming their implementation.

During a press conference with his Turkish counterpart in Tehran, Amir Abdollahian hoped to reach an agreement with Ankara regarding the exchange of prisoners (between Tehran and the United States of America via Turkey).

He indicated that he discussed with Fidan the issue of water scarcity (after the dam crisis between Turkey and Iran), and the two parties agreed that the Joint Technical Committee would visit Tehran for a new round of talks.

Amir Abdullahian stressed that the Israeli entity in the region will only bring strife and division among Islamic countries and destabilize the region.

On the issue of the Caucasus, the Iranian foreign minister said that Tehran would not accept any geographical change of the borders in the transit region in the Caucasus, and he appreciated Turkey's constructive positions in the field of borders with Syria and the return of refugees to their countries.

Amir Abdollahian added that Iran and Turkey planned for trade exchange between the two countries at a value of 30 billion euros, considering the corridors in the field of transport and transit in the region as complementary to cooperation between the two countries.

Amir Abdullahian revealed that work is underway to hold a tripartite meeting between Ankara, Riyadh and Tehran, to support economic relations, pointing out that the meeting comes at the request of Saudi Arabia.

For his part, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan described the Turkish-Iranian relations as "historic", thanking Iran for what it provided to Turkey after the catastrophe of the earthquake that struck Syria and Turkey last February.

Fidan said that he had exchanged views with the Iranian side on combating terrorist organizations.

Today, Sunday, Amir Abdollahian received, at the Foreign Ministry's headquarters, his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, who is making his first visit to Tehran since taking office.

The two ministers met in a private meeting that lasted about an hour and a half, before extensive discussions were held between the two delegations.

Keeping our readers informed about the most consequential events in this fast changing world. Manage your Subscription; invite a friend to subscribe to ISR’s Weekly Review Bulletin

Amir Abdullahian after meeting Ibn Salman in Jeddah: Our talks were frank and fruitful--The Saudi Crown Prince after the meeting: a review of ways to develop relations

Amir Abdullahian after meeting Ibn Salman in Jeddah: Our talks were frank and fruitful--The Saudi Crown Prince after the meeting: a review of ways to develop relations

    Friday, August 18, 2023   No comments

Today, the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, received the Iranian Foreign Minister, Hussein Amir Abdullahian, in the city of Jeddah, in the first meeting of the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia with Iranian officials since the resumption of relations between the two regional powers last March.

Abdullahian began a one-day visit to Saudi Arabia, before Saudi and Iranian officials confirmed that he would meet the crown prince on Friday. The Saudi Foreign Ministry said that the crown prince and the Iranian minister reviewed relations "and future opportunities for cooperation between the two countries and ways to develop them." They also discussed "developments in the situation on the regional and international arenas, and the efforts exerted towards them." The Iranian News Agency (IRNA) said that it was the first time that a high-ranking Iranian official had met the Saudi crown prince. Amir Abdullahian is accompanied on his visit to Riyadh by the new Iranian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Ali Reza Enayati, according to the same agency.

The Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdullahian, met the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, in the Saudi city of Jeddah.

And the Saudi Press Agency, "SPA", stated that Prince Abdullahian and Ibn Salman discussed future opportunities for cooperation between their two countries and ways to develop them, adding that they "discussed developments in regional and international situations, and efforts made towards them."

After the meeting, the Iranian foreign minister said that the meeting was "frank, fruitful and useful," in which "it was stressed that security and development are everyone's right."

Amir Abd Allahian stressed that "the issue of Palestine and Jerusalem is the focus of issues in the Islamic world," noting that "relations must be developed to serve the region."

He added, "The Saudi Crown Prince sent his greetings to the Leader of the Revolution and the Islamic Republic, Sayyed Ali Khamenei."

Likewise, the Iranian Foreign Ministry quoted, in a statement, the Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman: "These meetings have a fundamental impact on developing and consolidating bilateral and multilateral relations."

She added that the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia "considered the meeting of the leaders of the two countries very important," pointing out that he confirmed his invitation to President Ibrahim Raisi to visit the Kingdom.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry also stated that bin Salman stressed that relations with Tehran are "strategic," noting that the kingdom "enjoys serious determination in this context."

 The meeting was attended by the Iranian ambassador to Riyadh, Ali Reza Enayati. As for the Saudi side, the Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan, attended.

Yesterday, Thursday, Amir Abdollahian arrived in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, and the visit focused on bilateral relations, and regional and international issues, according to what was reported by the Iranian state TV, "Irib".

The Iranian Foreign Minister held a joint press conference with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan, and Amir Abdullahian said that the two sides affirmed "the determination to strengthen and develop relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in all fields."

Amir Abdollahian added that the idea of holding a regional dialogue at the level of the Gulf region had been proposed, "in continuation of the previous talks with Saudi Arabia."

The Iranian minister said, "We are extending a hand of cooperation to neighboring countries, and we are now pursuing a correct path in improving relations with these countries," expressing his hope that "the idea of achieving security and development in the region cannot be divided."

For his part, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said that he had assured his Iranian counterpart "the kingdom's keenness to activate previous agreements between the two countries, especially those related to security and economic aspects."

The Saudi foreign minister also stressed the importance of "raising the level of cooperation and coordination between the two countries."

Amir Abdullahian's visit, the first by an Iranian foreign minister in more than 10 years, comes two months after Ibn Farhan's visit to Tehran, which was the first by a Saudi foreign minister since 2006, where they held talks on security, economy, tourism and transportation issues.

And last week, the Saudi embassy in Tehran resumed its activities, according to Iranian official media, while Riyadh did not confirm this, or name an ambassador to Tehran.

Iranian media attributed the delay in reopening the Saudi embassy to the poor condition of the building, which was damaged during the 2016 demonstrations, after the Saudi authorities executed the Shiite cleric, Sheikh Nimr Nimr.

After the two countries agreed to resume diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies, with Chinese mediation, Iran reopened its embassy in Riyadh on June 6.

Tehran appointed its former ambassador to Kuwait, Ali Reza Enayati, as its new ambassador to Riyadh. This week, Amir Abdollahian told reporters that Enayati would accompany him on his trip to Saudi Arabia, "to officially begin his duties."

Two days ago, Enayati confirmed that Tehran is looking forward to consolidating the economic component in bilateral relations with Riyadh, noting that the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia "will open many horizons" for the two countries and the region.

Amir Abdullahian: Ibn Salman accepted Iran's invitation to visit her...and the region entered a new phase

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said, during his return to Tehran from Riyadh, that Iran had invited Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to visit it, "and he accepted the invitation, and he will plan it at the appropriate time."

He also pointed out that King Salman bin Abdulaziz also invited President Ibrahim Raisi to visit Riyadh, "and the latter accepted the invitation and will fulfill it at the appropriate time."

The Iranian minister also added that Saudi Arabia affirmed its different vision from the past, and expressed "its willingness to open a new page in relations between Tehran and Riyadh."

He added, "The region has entered a new phase of cooperation, because there is a consensus that the region can progress and develop by relying on itself."

He stated that it was agreed with the Saudis "to enhance cooperation in various economic, commercial and tourism fields in the private and public sectors."

He stated that bin Salman had taken a decision according to which he asked Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, "to take initial steps to prepare a framework for a document for long-term cooperation between the two countries, so that it can be signed during the visits of senior officials."

What happens now that Erdogan is re-elected president of Turkiye?

What happens now that Erdogan is re-elected president of Turkiye?

    Tuesday, May 30, 2023   No comments

Two weeks ago, the American New York Times reported that European leaders would be happy to have an "easier Turkey," referring to the European desire for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to lose in the current presidential elections.

The newspaper pointed out that Westerners, especially the US administration, would like to see Erdogan lose, in favor of opposition figure Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

The New York Times said that Turkey, an important and strategic member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), has become, under Erdogan's rule, "an increasingly troublesome partner of the European Union."

However, "NATO", according to the newspaper, hopes that the change of Turkish leadership "will lead to an end to the confrontation over the approval of Sweden's membership in the alliance," before the summit scheduled to be held in Vilnius, Lithuania, next July.

Within Turkey, the opposition and its candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, whom the Western media called "Turkey's Gandhi," sought to overthrow Erdogan.

And the opposition exploited anti-refugee sentiments to try to win the elections, according to the British "Guardian". Kilicdaroglu tried to win the support of voters, especially the youth, taking advantage of the difficult economic conditions, and promised to restore the parliamentary system, after its improvement, to the country.

Now, after Erdogan announced his victory in the presidential elections in its second round, what will the picture look like, at home and abroad?

Globally:

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace saw that the margin of creative thinking for the West will be limited with Erdogan's victory, as "21 years of experience with the current government has mostly exhausted the West's expectations of a qualitative improvement in relations."

And the Turkish president's victorious exit from this juncture means, according to the foundation, that Erdogan and his "indomitable sense" will reach new highs, which will increase what it called his "fiery behavior."

As for the relations between Ankara, Washington, and the rest of the Western capitals, the foundation said that they would be "devoid of flexibility and subject to circumstantial crises."

The reason behind this lies in the fact that Turkey will be in dire need of foreign financial flows due to the economic hardship the country is witnessing, as the Foundation said, which will prompt Erdogan to manage his country's foreign policy within the constraints of this reality, that is, with "less adventurism and more stability." .

But at the same time, the AKP leader will continue to "see Turkey as a regional power, and a member of a new club of countries," which includes China and Russia, which sees itself as an independent power bloc, according to the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University.

The European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR) said that the approach of Turkish treatment in foreign policy will continue while Erdogan remains in power, and the strained relations with the European Union will continue, "without any progress towards constructive engagement."

In the eastern Mediterranean, the site saw that tensions with Cyprus and Greece will not recede, but rather may escalate, with Ankara pressing for a two-state solution on the island.

As for Syria, the site expected the Turkish government's attempts, under Erdogan's rule, to continue to normalize its relations with Syria and other countries. This would facilitate the return of some Syrian refugees to their homeland, as the website said, bearing in mind that the issue of asylum is a top concern for Turkish voters.

For its part, the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) suggested that the United States and Europe would remain silent, and work to find new ways to work with Erdogan upon his victory.

And while relations are expected to be turbulent with the West, it is seen that they will be more stable with Russia, especially after the participation of Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in an official ceremony marking the start of supplying the Akkuyu nuclear power plant with nuclear fuel, days before the start of the elections. public in Turkey.

During the ceremony, which was held last April, Putin stressed that the station is the most important project for Russia and Turkey, and promised that it would allow the development of joint economic relations and the promotion of coexistence between the two countries.

Under Erdogan, Turkey maintained its relations with Russia, at a time when the West cut it off after Moscow launched its military operation in Ukraine. Recently, Ankara played the most prominent role, along with the United Nations, in completing the "grain deal" between Ukraine and Russia, which Erdogan announced its extension two weeks ago.

This deal is an integral part of a set of specific agreements for a period of 3 years, which provide for the lifting of the ban on Russian exports of food and fertilizers, the reconnection of the Russian Agricultural Bank to the “SWIFT” system, and the resumption of the supply of agricultural machinery, spare parts and services.

Domestically:

On the domestic front, the head of the Justice and Development Party announced that his economic program for the next stage reveals a return to more traditional policies regarding the "free market" economy.

There is talk that Erdogan's economic program will be very similar to that laid out in the AKP's 2002 electoral platform. In other words, the AKP will return to its "origins" and abandon "heretical economics".

During the past months, the Turkish government has resorted to what is called the "election economy", which permeates it by increasing government spending and reducing collection, by raising the minimum wage, facilitating loans, scheduling debts, and supporting some segments.

The public coalition, led by Erdogan, seeks to increase Turkey's gross domestic product and increase annual growth by 5.5% from 2024 to 2028.

Likewise, the alliance is working to achieve a gross domestic product of $1.5 trillion by the end of 2028, to adopt a policy of developing the defense industries sector and combating terrorism, and to establish the "Istanbul Canal" project.

The Turkish president promised the voters to make Turkey "strong and multi-alliance," and also promised to create 6 million jobs, accusing the West of "trying to overthrow him, after more than two decades in power," in addition to giving tourism a big boost.

However, the opposition is suspicious of Erdogan's promises, especially on the economic issue, and its alliance has made many economic promises. However, the most prominent criticism that reached it is that it does not provide clear mechanisms and policies to achieve its promises.

Faced with this reality, the Turkish interior is vulnerable to a raging political ram between the elected president and his opponents, especially with Kilicdaroglu's statement that he is "sad for Turkey's future", without officially acknowledging the loss.

The issue of the political system that governs the country was raised as one of the main headlines over which electoral competition was intensified. While the opposition was threatening to restore the parliamentary system to rule Turkey in the event of the victory of its candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the "Justice and Development" promised to preserve the presidential system.

According to the election results, Erdogan's assumption of power for another 5 years means the continuation of the presidential system, which provides the president with broad powers, most notably the direct appointment of senior state officials, including ministers, university presidents and judges.

_________

* Adapted from Fatima Karnib's reporting on the Turkish Elections