CIA Director William Burns said that Iran is capable of producing a nuclear bomb within a week, but there is no evidence that it has decided to do so.
NBC quoted Burns - during a security conference in Georgia - as saying that Iran has made progress in its nuclear program by accumulating depleted uranium to levels that allow for the manufacture of nuclear weapons.
As a result, Burns continued, Iran may be able to quickly obtain enough fissile material to make an atomic bomb if it chooses to do so, and there will be less time for the outside world to respond.
He added that there is no evidence that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reversed his decision taken in late 2003 to suspend the nuclear weapons program, and said that American intelligence agencies believe that Iran has suspended its program in accordance with Khamenei's declaration last year.
The US intelligence chief explained that Tehran has developed "conception methods" by building a missile arsenal, noting that Iran has become closer to producing a nuclear bomb since the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018.
In response to recent rumors that an earthquake in Semnan province near the capital Tehran was related to a nuclear test, the Nour News website, which is close to the Iranian National Security Council, stated that "the suspicious rumors spread by foreign media about the first Iranian nuclear test are completely false and contradict Iran's nuclear and defense doctrine."
Burns' statements and talk of a nuclear test came amid Israeli threats to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities in response to Tehran targeting Israel with dozens of missiles after the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforoushan, deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, in Israeli raids on Beirut, and the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil.
The CIA confirms similar statements by US officials that essentially concluded that building a nuclear weapons is now in the hands of Iranian leaders. In July of this year, the head of the State Department, Blinken, also stated that Iran was a week to a week and half from the breakout stage for developing nuclear weapons. Other Western officials confirmed that US assessment is accurate. Given the timeline, this means that the decision for building a nuclear weapon is entirely in the hands of Iranian leaders. The developments and threats since July 2024 can only push them to building a weapon. Alternatively, and absent in Western assessment of Iran capabilities, is whether Iranian leaders have thought of using depleted uranium in their rockets, especially after reports that Israel may have used depleted uranium bombs in its assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforoushan in Beirut last month.
Also, if Western assessment about Iran's nuclear capabalities is true, restoring the 2015 nuclear deal that Trump withdrew from in 2028 becomes moot. The starting point for any new deal will start with the Iran preserving what it has achieved and what the West can offer to limit increased nuclear activities.
Media Review and Analysis
Burns' statements about Iran's proximity to the nuclear bomb and its ability to produce nuclear weapons within a week is not the first of its kind, as Iranian officials, including the head of the Strategic Council for Foreign Policy, Kamal Kharrazi, had previously confirmed Tehran's ability to produce nuclear weapons. Kharrazi had revealed for the first time in July 2022 that his country had the technical capabilities to manufacture a nuclear bomb, adding that there was no decision in Tehran to manufacture a nuclear bomb despite that.
For his part, political researcher Ali Reza Taghavi Nia describes Burns' statement about Tehran's ability to produce a nuclear bomb within a week as "a confirmation of what has been previously confirmed by the Iranians," but he was reluctant to specify a time frame for his country to become a nuclear power in the event of a political decision from the top of the government.
Taghavi Nia saw that raising the issue of Iran reaching the nuclear threshold by the CIA director comes at a very precise time in light of the ongoing discussions between Tel Aviv and its Western allies regarding targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, adding that the American side is sending warning signals against taking steps that might justify Iran's production of a nuclear bomb.
According to Taghavi Nia, Western security agencies have been fully aware of Tehran's capabilities to manufacture a nuclear bomb for a long time, and the religious authority's fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons is the final word for Iranian circles.
In his opinion, Burns' exclusion of the possibility of the Iranian leader reversing his decision to suspend the nuclear weapons program may include a message to Western parties that any failed adventure in targeting Iranian nuclear facilities may be equivalent to a final withdrawal from the religious fatwa.
A favorable opportunity
Taghavi Nia thinks that the opportunity is favorable for the Islamic Republic to raise the level of military deterrence and transform it into a nuclear power in light of the Israeli threats to attack vital targets in Iran and the Western mobilization to support it, stressing that eliminating Iranian nuclear facilities will not be an easy target for Israel, but it will not escape the repercussions of its decision to attack the Iranian depth.
Taqavi Nia continued that his country has taken the worst scenarios into consideration in building its nuclear facilities and fortifying them under the mountains and with several layers of reinforced concrete, not to mention that it has placed various anti-aircraft missiles around the reactors that it was keen to build in the middle of the country to be able to hunt down attacking objects before they reach them.
For his part, Rahman Ghahramanpour, a professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, says that Iran's ability to produce a nuclear bomb is no longer hidden from anyone, and that technical reports support Tehran reaching the nuclear threshold years ago, but he does not see the manufacture of a nuclear bomb as a real deterrent factor.
The Iranian academic believes that the existence of existential threats has justified many countries in the world to manufacture the nuclear bomb to balance power, adding that nuclear deterrence can only be achieved by the availability of the nuclear triad: the nuclear bomb, missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and the nuclear submarine.
He continued that if a political decision is issued to manufacture the nuclear bomb in Iran, nuclear deterrence will remain incomplete in light of Tehran not possessing a nuclear submarine, despite the fact that it possesses types of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
He added that the lack of all elements of the nuclear triad does not mean that the decision to manufacture the bomb does not contribute to raising the level of deterrence, but it will be an incomplete deterrence, wondering about the target that the bomb will be directed towards, the possibility of targeting it, and the extent of popular consensus on manufacturing and using nuclear weapons.
Despite these obstacles, observers in Iran do not rule out that Tehran, which possesses different types of submarines, has already thought of a solution to complete the nuclear triad, especially in light of its hints that there are surprises capable of changing the balance of power on a global level and that it may reveal them at the appropriate opportunity.
With the Israeli threat, is Iran close to making a nuclear bomb?
Amid the escalating tension between Tehran and Tel Aviv, the Israeli Air Force is conducting military maneuvers over the Mediterranean Sea, including simulations of long-range flights and aerial refueling in preparation for striking vital targets deep inside Iran.
On the Iranian side, talk of the need to manufacture a nuclear bomb to confront Israeli threats to strike its nuclear facilities has become commonplace on the street, social media platforms, and Persian-language newspapers, to the point that Hassan Khomeini (the grandson of Khomeini, the leader of the Iranian revolution) called for "raising military deterrence in his country to a higher level."
When the presenter of the "Jiryan" program on the first channel of Iranian television asked Khomeini's grandson what he meant, he confirmed that he "will say more when the time is right." Meanwhile, Iranian observers considered this statement a call to manufacture a nuclear bomb to confront Israeli threats that enjoy the highest levels of support from the United States and some other European countries.
Fatwa that may change
Since the fatwa of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei prohibiting the production and use of weapons of mass destruction is considered the main obstacle to the country’s transformation into a nuclear power, in media interviews, Sheikh Mahdi Masa’ili, a professor at the Qom Seminary, commented about the possibility of amending the fatwa when the country faces an existential threat, and he responded in the affirmative without hesitation.
The sheikh distinguishes between the production of a nuclear bomb and its use, explaining that the prohibition of nuclear weapons in Shiite jurisprudence is related to their destructive and fatal effects on crops and offspring. He believed that in light of the ongoing threats to target vital facilities in Iran, the idea of producing a nuclear bomb may constitute a deterrent factor that leads to reducing the escalation and reducing tension in the region without using it, or benefiting from it in a thoughtful and disciplined manner.
In the opinion of the seminary professor, Shiite jurisprudence, just as it prohibits weapons of mass destruction, at the same time it urges the defense of the Islamic umma and the guarantee of its interests. Thus, the fatwa prohibiting the use of the nuclear bomb cannot constitute a guarantee for enemies to commit all kinds of massacres against Muslims without deterrence, and it may change to deter the aggressor and curb his ambitions.
Related, Iranian parliamentarian Hassan Ali Akhlaqi Amiri revealed that 39 members of parliament have recently submitted a request to the Iranian National Security Council through a letter to reconsider Iran's nuclear doctrine. In an interview with the semi-official Iranian news agency ISNA, Akhlaqi Amiri stressed the need to strengthen Tehran's defensive deterrence, adding that "today, no international organization, even European and American countries, can restrain the Zionist entity because this fake entity commits any crime, and on this basis, we, along with 39 members of parliament, wrote a letter to the Supreme National Security Council and submitted a request to reconsider the nuclear doctrine."
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