US-drafted UNSC Resolution: Why Clarity on a Two-State or One-State Future Is Now an Imperative

US-drafted UNSC Resolution: Why Clarity on a Two-State or One-State Future Is Now an Imperative

    Monday, November 17, 2025   No comments

Western governments routinely condemn what they view as extreme or destabilizing rhetoric in the Israeli-Palestinian arena—especially language asserting Palestinian liberation. Yet these condemnations stand in stark contrast to the words and actions of Israel’s own leaders, who openly work to foreclose every political pathway that would allow Palestinians to exist as a people with rights, sovereignty, and security.

At a moment when Palestinian political identity is questioned by senior Israeli ministers, when settlements continue to expand, and when proposals to forcibly “resettle” Gaza are voiced from within Israel’s governing coalition, Western democracies face a stark choice: either affirm—clearly and publicly—their support for a viable two-state solution, or acknowledge and adopt the only other rights-preserving path, a single democratic state with equal citizenship for all. There are no other defensible options left.

Israel’s Rejection of Palestinian Statehood Has Become Explicit Policy

The latest diplomatic struggle erupted ahead of a crucial UN Security Council vote on a U.S.-drafted resolution regarding post-war Gaza administration. After quiet revisions by Washington inserted language referring to a “credible pathway” to Palestinian statehood, Israel launched an all-out effort to strip the phrase from the text.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his position unmistakable. Addressing his cabinet, he declared that his opposition to a Palestinian state “has not changed one bit.” Far-right coalition partners went further:

War Minister Israel Katz and Foreign Minister Gideon Saar both vowed that “no Palestinian state will be established.”

 

Itamar Ben-Gvir, a key powerbroker in the coalition, went so far as to dismiss Palestinian identity itself as an “invention.”

 

These statements are not rhetorical flourishes. They align with the expansion of settlements in the West Bank, ongoing displacement of Palestinians, and the continued push from some ministers for the forced removal of Gazans and re-settlement of the Strip by Israelis—policies fundamentally incompatible with any internationally accepted vision for peace.

A UNSC Resolution Exposes the Depth of the Crisis

The U.S. resolution under consideration would authorize:

• a transitional administration in Gaza, and
• a UN-mandated international stabilization force (ISF) supported by eight major regional governments, including Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Türkiye, Jordan, Pakistan, and Indonesia.

The proposal has satisfied no one. Palestinian factions have urged Algeria to reject it, denouncing the plan as foreign imposition and “another form of occupation.” Meanwhile, Russia submitted a competing resolution that emphasizes stronger guarantees for Palestinian statehood and territorial contiguity.

The internal splits within the Security Council reflect deeper fractures: the international community is attempting to grapple with Israel’s categorical rejection of Palestinian national rights while also navigating Palestinian concerns that external administration may undermine self-determination. 

On the Ground, Violence and Humanitarian Suffering Continue

While high-level diplomacy unfolds, conditions worsen across Palestinian territory.

In the occupied West Bank, Israeli violence and escalating settler attacks have killed seven Palestinians—including six children—within two weeks.

In Gaza, even after a fragile ceasefire, near-daily Israeli strikes since 10 October have killed hundreds. Meanwhile displaced families living in the Mawasi camp struggled through flooded tents after the first winter storm, highlighting the profound humanitarian crisis that persists despite international appeals for protection and aid.

These realities reinforce what Palestinians, human rights organizations, and increasingly international legal experts have long argued: policies that deny meaningful political rights to an entire population inevitably produce cycles of violence, displacement, and humanitarian catastrophe.

The West Cannot Sustain Ambiguity Anymore

For decades, Western governments—particularly the U.S. and EU states—have expressed rhetorical support for a two-state solution even as the material conditions for such a solution were allowed to deteriorate.

Today, Israeli political leaders are not merely undermining the two-state framework; many openly reject it as a matter of principle.

If the two-state solution is impossible, and if permanent occupation or apartheid-like arrangements are morally and legally indefensible, then the only alternative consistent with liberal democratic values is a single democratic state with equal rights for all.

Western governments rarely articulate this basic truth. Instead, they remain caught in a cycle of condemning Palestinian political language while avoiding confrontation with an Israeli leadership dismantling the very foundations of any just peace.

This ambiguity now fuels instability, undermines Western credibility, and leaves Palestinian rights suspended in perpetual limbo.

Two Viable Futures—And Only Two

The world is left with exactly two legitimate pathways that respect Palestinian rights and ensure security for Israelis:

1. A Real, Enforceable Two-State Solution

This would require:

• a sovereign, contiguous Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza;
• an end to settlement expansion and annexation;
• a political horizon backed by international guarantees.

2. A Single Democratic State With Equal Rights

• If Israel continues to rule over the land from the river to the sea, then justice requires equal citizenship, equal legal rights, and equal political representation for all inhabitants—Jewish and Palestinian alike.

Anything else—permanent occupation, fragmented enclaves, demographic engineering, or externally imposed administration—fails every test of legality, morality, and stability.

The Moment of Decision Has Arrived

Israel’s current leadership has made its position clear: no Palestinian state, no political equality, and no credible vision for Palestinian self-determination. Palestinians, meanwhile, continue to endure violence, displacement, and erasure—even as they insist on their right to shape their own political future. The West must now make its own position just as clear. Will it support a two-state solution with real enforcement mechanisms? Or will it support a single democratic state with equal rights?

These are the only two futures that uphold human dignity and comply with international law. Continued ambiguity is not neutrality—it is complicity in a status quo that denies millions of people the right to live freely, securely, and equally in their homeland.

Updated information about the resolution (11/18): UNSCR 2803

Key provisions of resolution 2803:

• Creates a new transitional authority, the so-called “Board of Peace” (BoP).

• A foreign, internationally recognized administrative body with legal international personality, tasked with governing, financing, and restructuring Gaza.

It will be chaired by Donald Trump, with other world leaders joining later.

• Authorizes a Temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF), a multinational force empowered to use “all necessary measures,” UN language for the use of force, to demilitarize Gaza.

The ISF will operate in close coordination with Israel and Egypt.

• Mandates comprehensive disarmament of all Palestinian armed factions: ISF will destroy military infrastructure, prevent reconstruction, permanently remove weapons from service, and enforce demilitarization as a condition for Israeli withdrawal.

• Allows Israel to maintain a surrounding “security perimeter”: Israeli occupation forces remain around Gaza until the ISF certifies that the enclave is free of “renewed terrorist threats.”

• Imposes an internationalized governance structure on Gaza: Daily administration will be run by a non-political, technocratic Palestinian committee, supervised by the US-chaired BoP, not an elected Palestinian authority.

• Gives the BoP control over humanitarian entry and reconstruction: Aid coordination shifts from UN-run mechanisms toward the BoP and its operational bodies.

• Extends the foreign administration until at least 31 December 2027: With the possibility of renewal by the Security Council; regular six-month reports are required.

• Ties Palestinian “statehood” to multiple conditions, including full PA reform, progress on disarmament, implementation of the Trump plan, and BoP-approved reconstruction benchmarks.

• Grants broad privileges and immunities to foreign personnel: Civilian and military actors operating under the BoP/ISF receive legal protections and operational freedom inside Gaza.

Notes:

• Resolution 2803 passed with 13 votes in favor, while Russia and China abstained.

• Algeria, despite public calls by Hamas to reject the resolution, ultimately voted for it and praised US leadership.

• Russia advanced its own counter-draft, then abstained, and afterward stated it “cannot support this decision,” exposing a clear contradiction.

• A broad bloc of Arab and Islamic states (including Qatar, Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Jordan, Turkiye) supported the US draft.

• Palestinian factions and rights groups unanimously condemned the resolution, calling it a scheme for foreign trusteeship, forced disarmament, and external control over the strip.

Hamas' Reaction to UNSC's Approval of the Plan

Statement by Hamas:

"In response to the UN Security Council's adoption of the US draft resolution on Gaza, the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) affirms the following:

This resolution does not meet the level of our Palestinian people’s political and humanitarian demands and rights, particularly in the Gaza Strip, which for two years endured a brutal genocidal war and unprecedented crimes committed by the terrorist occupation in front of the entire world—the effects and repercussions of which remain ongoing despite the declaration of the war’s end according to President Trump’s plan.

The resolution imposes an international guardianship mechanism on the Gaza Strip, which our people and their factions reject. It also imposes a mechanism to achieve the occupation’s objectives, which it failed to accomplish through its brutal genocide. Furthermore, this resolution detaches the Gaza Strip from the rest of the Palestinian geography and attempts to impose new realities away from our people’s principles and legitimate national rights, thereby depriving our people of their right to self-determination and the establishment of their Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.

Resisting the occupation by all means is a legitimate right guaranteed by international laws and conventions. The weapons of the resistance are linked to the existence of the occupation, and any discussion of the weapons file must remain an internal national matter connected to a political path that ensures the end of the occupation, the establishment of the state [of Palestine], and self-determination.

Assigning the international force with tasks and roles inside the Gaza Strip, including disarming the resistance, strips it of its neutrality, and turns it into a party to the conflict in favor of the occupation. Any international force, if established, must be deployed only at the borders to separate forces, monitor the ceasefire, and must be fully under UN supervision. It must operate exclusively in coordination with official Palestinian institutions, without the occupation having any role in it, and work to ensure the flow of aid, without being turned into a security authority that pursues our people and their resistance.

Humanitarian aid, relief for the affected, and the opening of crossings are fundamental rights for our people in the Gaza Strip. Aid and relief operations cannot remain subject to politicization, blackmail, and subjugation to complex mechanisms amid the unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe created by the occupation, which requires expediting the opening of crossings and mobilizing all resources to address it through the UN and its agencies, foremost among them UNRWA.

We call on the international community and the Security Council to uphold the international law and humanitarian values, and to adopt resolutions that achieve justice for Gaza and the Palestinian cause, through the actual cessation of the brutal genocidal war on Gaza, reconstruction, ending the occupation, and enabling our people to self-determination and establish their independent state with Jerusalem as its capital."

Change is happening

This development at the UN Security Council—the world’s highest forum for maintaining global peace—comes at a moment when global public sentiment has shifted dramatically in the wake of the Gaza war. Across academia and broader civil society, awareness of the structural dynamics of the conflict has deepened, and calls for an urgent, justice-based resolution—rather than one shaped by political alliances or strategic convenience—are becoming more widespread. Reflecting this shift, the Oxford Union Society voted overwhelmingly, 265–113, to declare that Israel is a “greater threat to regional stability” than Iran, a result emblematic of how public understanding of the conflict has transformed in less than a year.

Hasty Peace Summit in Egypt

Hasty Peace Summit in Egypt

    Monday, October 13, 2025   No comments

Diplomatic Showmanship, War Crimes, and the Unresolved Reckoning

In a hastily convened summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, world leaders gathered under the banner of peace, hoping to forge a ceasefire agreement that might end the devastating war in Gaza. But beneath the polished veneer of diplomacy, the gathering exposed deep fractures within the international order, and the growing demand for accountability—both legal and political—for the war crimes committed over the past year.

This unexpected summit, held amid growing international outrage over the Gaza conflict, saw major power players—including Turkey, Iraq, Egypt, and the United States—jockey for position, not just to broker a truce, but to shape the post-war reality in the region. Yet, one of the most dramatic developments occurred before the summit even began: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was barred from attending, following coordinated diplomatic pressure from Turkey and Iraq.

Netanyahu Blocked Amid Diplomatic Pushback

According to multiple diplomatic sources cited by Agence France-Presse, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan led efforts to block Netanyahu’s attendance, supported by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al-Sudani. Erdoğan's plane reportedly circled over the Red Sea awaiting confirmation that Netanyahu would not be present, underscoring the intensity of regional resistance to legitimizing the Israeli leader’s role in any peace process.

The Iraqi delegation went as far as threatening to boycott the summit entirely if Netanyahu were allowed to attend. Cairo, under pressure, ultimately rescinded the invitation. Netanyahu later claimed that his absence was due to Jewish holidays—a statement seen widely as a face-saving maneuver.

This moment marks a significant political humiliation for Netanyahu, who had previously been confirmed by the Egyptian presidency to attend alongside Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. It also signals a shift in the diplomatic atmosphere: leaders once willing to engage Netanyahu now fear the political consequences of being seen as complicit in normalizing his actions during the Gaza campaign.

A Peace Built on Diplomatic Expediency

The Sharm El-Sheikh summit, rushed and reactive, symbolizes a broader crisis in international diplomacy. While it aims to cement a ceasefire, the terms remain vague, the enforcement mechanisms uncertain, and the actors around the table deeply divided on what post-war Gaza should look like.

Earlier this year, reports emerged that the U.S. had floated a controversial plan to install former British Prime Minister Tony Blair as head of an interim administration in Gaza. The plan, which included a multinational force to secure borders and facilitate reconstruction, was met with skepticism. Most recently, President Donald Trump expressed doubts about Blair’s appointment, questioning whether the former prime minister is “acceptable to everyone”—a subtle acknowledgment of Blair's legacy in the region and the broader crisis of legitimacy facing Western interventions.

The Shadow of War Crimes and Political Reckoning

Beneath the surface of diplomatic maneuvering lies the unresolved question of war crimes. The Gaza war, which has resulted in staggering civilian casualties and widespread destruction, has pushed far beyond the bounds of international law. Human rights organizations, UN experts, and even some Western legislators have begun calling for independent investigations into potential war crimes committed by all parties, but particularly by the Israeli military under Netanyahu’s leadership.

While legal accountability through institutions like the International Criminal Court remains politically fraught and unlikely in the short term, political accountability may arrive sooner. Netanyahu’s increasing isolation—evident in his exclusion from this summit—suggests that even long-standing allies are recalibrating their alliances. The symbolism of excluding a wartime leader from a peace summit is powerful: it sends a message that diplomatic immunity is not a given for those accused of gross violations of humanitarian norms.

Looking Ahead: Fragile Peace, Uncertain Justice

The summit in Egypt may temporarily halt the violence, but it does little to address the root causes of the conflict or to lay the groundwork for sustainable peace. With Netanyahu sidelined, the question becomes: who will shape Gaza’s future, and how will justice be served?

If anything, these developments show that multiple centers of power—regional and global—are now moving to reassert control over a crisis that spiraled far beyond its original boundaries. The speed and secrecy with which this summit was arranged are telling: peace is being pursued not through transparent negotiation, but through diplomatic backchannels shaped by geopolitical interests rather than legal principles or the voices of those most affected. 

Still, for those calling for justice and accountability, this moment may be a turning point. Netanyahu’s diplomatic snub could be the beginning of a broader reckoning—not just for him, but for all leaders who believe that military force can be deployed without consequence. The world may be witnessing the birth of a fragile peace—but it is a peace haunted by the specter of unresolved war crimes and the lingering demand for justice.

Israel Used Fabricated 3D Tunnel Visuals to Justify Gaza Bombardments, Investigation Finds

Israel Used Fabricated 3D Tunnel Visuals to Justify Gaza Bombardments, Investigation Finds

    Monday, October 13, 2025   No comments

A recent journalistic investigation has revealed that the Israeli government, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, presented misleading and fabricated 3D visualizations of Hamas tunnels as authentic intelligence to justify its military operations in Gaza. According to the report—published by Spanish news outlet laSexta—the Israeli military reused identical digital models to depict underground networks beneath multiple civilian sites, including hospitals and schools, despite claiming each represented unique, verified threats.

Fabricated Evidence Presented as Intelligence

The investigation found that some of the widely circulated animations were not produced by Israeli intelligence at all. Instead, they were sourced from publicly available online assets—including a 3D model originally created by a Scottish maritime museum to illustrate a ship repair workshop. These generic graphics were then repurposed and disseminated by Israeli military spokespeople as if they were classified intelligence products demonstrating Hamas’s use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes.

Notably, an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson did acknowledge on several occasions that the visuals were “illustrations only,” stating: “This is just an illustration—I repeat, we will not share the real images we have in our possession.” However, such disclaimers were often absent or downplayed in initial media briefings, leading international audiences and news organizations to treat the visuals as credible evidence.

Broader Pattern of Misrepresentation

The report further alleges that Israel employed similar deceptive visual tactics beyond Gaza. Comparable 3D recreations were reportedly used to depict alleged underground facilities in Syria, Lebanon, and Iran—countries that subsequently experienced Israeli airstrikes. This suggests a broader strategic use of digital fabrication to shape public perception and legitimize military action.

Significance and Implications

The use of falsified or misleading visual evidence carries profound ethical, legal, and geopolitical consequences. By presenting generic or repurposed animations as verified intelligence, Israeli authorities may have influenced international opinion and policy decisions during a conflict that has resulted in massive civilian casualties and widespread destruction in Gaza.

Critics argue that such tactics undermine transparency in wartime communication and erode trust in official narratives. Moreover, if these visuals were used to justify strikes on protected civilian sites—such as hospitals and schools—they could raise serious concerns under international humanitarian law, which prohibits attacks on non-military targets unless there is clear, verified evidence of their military use.

The revelations also highlight the growing role of digital media in modern warfare—not only as a tool for documentation but also as a vector for propaganda and manipulation. In an era where visual content can rapidly shape global narratives, distinguishing between evidence and illustration becomes a critical safeguard against misinformation.

This investigation underscores the urgent need for independent verification of wartime claims, especially when they rely heavily on digital reconstructions. While Israel maintains that Hamas embeds military infrastructure within civilian areas—a claim supported by some prior evidence—the deliberate use of fabricated or recycled visuals to bolster that argument risks discrediting legitimate concerns and deepening skepticism about official justifications for military force. As scrutiny over the conduct of the Gaza war intensifies, this report adds a troubling dimension to debates over accountability, truth, and the ethics of information in conflict.

Media Review: Erdogan says agreement reached with Trump on Gaza ceasefire and "lasting peace"

Media Review: Erdogan says agreement reached with Trump on Gaza ceasefire and "lasting peace"

    Friday, September 26, 2025   No comments

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had reached an understanding with US President Donald Trump on steps to secure a ceasefire and "lasting peace" in Gaza and Palestine following their talks at the White House on Thursday.

"Our meeting was very important in terms of putting forth the will to end the massacres in Gaza. Mr. Trump stated during the meeting the need to end fighting in Gaza and reach lasting peace," Erdogan told reporters, according to a transcript released by his office on Friday.

"We explained how a ceasefire can be achieved in Gaza and the whole of Palestine, and lasting peace afterwards. An understanding was reached there," he added. "We said that the two-state solution was the formula for lasting peace in the region, that the current situation cannot continue."

Trump: “I’m not allowing Israel to annex the West Bank”

US President Donald Trump on Thursday said that he will not allow Israel to annex the occupied West Bank.

Trump’s response came after he was asked whether he had promised Arab leaders during a meeting at the United Nations this week that he would prevent any annexation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed not to allow a Palestinian state, and far-right members of his cabinet have threatened to annex the West Bank in response to the recent recognition of a Palestinian state by several Western countries. He was met by boos and walk out at the UN on Friday.

Netanyahu at the UNGA: "We'll never accept a Palestinian state. I say to the European and Western leaders; you cannot shove this Palestinian state down our throats, just because you don't have the guts to stand up against the antisemitic media... Unfortunately, the Western media is pro-Khamas"

Humanitarian Flotilla attacked, Italy Spain Sent military ships to help

Video footage taken by journalists aboard the lead ship of the Global Sumud Flotilla shows an Italian navy ship near the fleet in the Mediterranean Sea.

Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said on Thursday that a second naval frigate will be deployed to support the Flotilla after it came under at least 13 drone attacks since the late hours of Tuesday.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Wednesday that Spain would also be sending a navy ship to assist the flotilla.

Arab and Muslim Leaders, who met with Trump, Call for Immediate Gaza Ceasefire as First Step Toward Lasting Peace

Arab and Muslim Leaders, who met with Trump, Call for Immediate Gaza Ceasefire as First Step Toward Lasting Peace

    Wednesday, September 24, 2025   No comments

 In a significant diplomatic move on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, leaders from eight Arab and Muslim-majority nations joined U.S. President Donald Trump in a high-level summit focused on ending the war in Gaza. Following the meeting on Tuesday, the group issued a joint statement on Wednesday emphasizing that an immediate cessation of hostilities is “the first step toward a just and lasting peace.”

The leaders described the situation in Gaza as “an unbearable and tragic humanitarian catastrophe,” citing massive civilian casualties, widespread destruction, and the dire consequences for regional stability and the broader Muslim world. They reaffirmed their collective rejection of forced displacement and stressed the necessity of allowing displaced Palestinians to return to their homes.

Central to the joint declaration was a call for an immediate and permanent ceasefire that would facilitate the release of all hostages and guarantee the unimpeded delivery of sufficient humanitarian aid into Gaza. “Ending the war and achieving an immediate ceasefire—ensuring the release of hostages and the entry of adequate humanitarian assistance—is the essential first step toward a just and lasting peace,” the statement read.

The leaders also underscored the urgent need for a comprehensive reconstruction plan for Gaza, built upon proposals previously advanced by the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). This plan, they said, must include robust security arrangements and international support for Palestinian leadership to ensure long-term stability and recovery.

Trump’s 21-Point Peace Plan Unveiled

Adding further context to the summit, U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff revealed on Wednesday that a detailed 21-point peace proposal crafted by the Trump administration had been presented to the assembled leaders. According to the American news outlet Axios, the plan outlines a phased approach to de-escalation and post-conflict governance.

Key elements of the proposal include:

The full release of all hostages and prisoners;

A permanent ceasefire;

A gradual Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza;

A “day-after” governance framework that explicitly excludes Hamas from any role in administering the territory;

The deployment of an international security force in Gaza, including Arab troops, to maintain order and support reconstruction efforts.

Witkoff expressed optimism about the prospects for a breakthrough, stating, “I hope—or maybe I’m even confident—that we will soon announce some form of breakthrough regarding Gaza.” He described the plan as a realistic and actionable roadmap designed to address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term political stability.

In a related development, Witkoff also signaled the administration’s openness to diplomacy with Iran. When asked about potential negotiations, he confirmed, “We are talking to them, and we have a desire to negotiate,” suggesting a broader regional strategy that could link Gaza’s stabilization to wider Middle East diplomacy.

Trump reportedly urged Arab and Muslim leaders to send troops to Gaza to ‘facilitate Israel's withdrawal’ and finance reconstruction.

A Unified Regional Stance

The summit marked a rare moment of alignment between the Trump administration and key Arab and Muslim leaders on the Gaza crisis. By jointly endorsing a ceasefire as the cornerstone of any peace process—and backing a reconstruction plan that sidelines Hamas while empowering Palestinian institutions—the group signaled a shared vision for Gaza’s future.

While challenges remain, particularly in securing buy-in from all conflict parties and ensuring the plan’s implementation, the New York summit has injected renewed momentum into efforts to end one of the region’s most devastating recent conflicts. As Witkoff put it, the goal is not just to stop the fighting, but to “rebuild Palestinian lives in Gaza” with dignity, security, and hope.

Politico: 'Trump promises Arab, Muslim leaders he won’t let Israel annex the West Bank'

At a closed-door meeting on 23 September at the United Nations, President Donald Trump assured Arab and Muslim leaders that he would not allow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to annex the occupied West Bank, according to six sources familiar with the discussions, reports Axios.

Trump was described as “firm” on the issue, telling participants that Israel would not be permitted to absorb the territory, which is under Palestinian Authority governance. His administration also circulated a white paper detailing its postwar plan, including governance and security arrangements.

Despite Trump’s assurances, participants noted that a ceasefire to end Israel’s nearly two-year war on Gaza remains distant. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the meeting “fruitful,” while Arab leaders privately emphasized that West Bank annexation would collapse the Abraham Accords — Trump’s signature regional achievement — and halt Israel’s integration into the region. 

The White House has yet to release an official readout.

Saudi-Pakistan Defense Pact Reshapes Middle Eastern Geopolitics

Saudi-Pakistan Defense Pact Reshapes Middle Eastern Geopolitics

    Wednesday, September 17, 2025   No comments

In a move that has sent seismic waves across the international community, Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan have formally signed a mutual defense pact. The announcement, coming in the immediate aftermath of a devastating Israeli attack on Qatar, signals a dramatic and potentially dangerous realignment of power in a region already on a knife's edge.

This agreement, far more than a simple reaffirmation of longstanding ties, represents a fundamental shift in the strategic calculus of the Middle East and South Asia, with implications for global security, energy markets, and the future of conflict in the region.

From Strategic Partnership to Ironclad Guarantee

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan share a deep, decades-long relationship built on a foundation of economic support, religious solidarity, and security cooperation. Riyadh has long been a financial benefactor to Islamabad, while Pakistan has provided the Kingdom with military trainers and troops for its defense. However, this new pact elevates that relationship to an entirely new level.

The core tenet of the agreement, as stated by the Pakistani prime minister’s office, is that "any aggression against either country will be treated as aggression against both." This transforms a friendly understanding into a legally binding, ironclad security guarantee. For Saudi Arabia, a nation rich in wealth and oil but with a relatively small population, this pact effectively places it under the umbrella of Pakistan's formidable military—the world’s sixth-largest—and, most significantly, its nuclear arsenal.

The Qatar Catalyst: A Region on the Brink

The timing of the announcement is impossible to ignore. The pact was finalized during emergency talks in Riyadh between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, held just days after Israel's unprecedented attack on Qatar.

This context is crucial. The strike on Qatar, a nation that also hosts a major U.S. military base, demonstrated a terrifying escalation in the ongoing regional proxy wars. For Saudi Arabia, a longstanding rival of Qatar, the attack was likely seen not just as an strike against a neighbor, but as a harbinger of unchecked aggression that could one day be directed at Riyadh itself. The message from the Saudi leadership is clear: the traditional security architecture, heavily reliant on the United States, is no longer seen as dependable. They are seeking new, more immediate guarantees for their survival.

By aligning directly with a nuclear-armed power, Saudi Arabia is sending a powerful deterrent message to all regional adversaries, primarily Israel and Iran: an attack on the Kingdom will now carry an incalculable and existential risk.

Iran's Calculated Response: Diplomatic Outreach in a Shifting Landscape

This development comes as Iran's security leadership has initiated a regional outreach, seeking to capitalize on the chaos to advance its own vision for a new security architecture. In a highly significant move, Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader and former Parliament Speaker, was dispatched to Saudi Arabia.

Larijani’s mission is multifaceted:

• Testing the Waters: Iran is likely probing Saudi Arabia's commitment to its new partnership with Pakistan and gauging its level of anxiety post-Qatar.

• Offering an Alternative: Tehran is positioning itself as a necessary partner for regional stability, arguing that a collective security agreement that includes Iran is preferable to a polarized arms race.

• Exploiting Divisions: Iran may see an opportunity to drive a wedge between Saudi Arabia and its traditional allies by presenting itself as a more reliable, or at least inevitable, neighbor in a post-American era.

The Larijani mission underscores that while the Saudi-Pakistan pact is a Sunni-centric bloc, Iran is not remaining idle. It is responding with its own diplomatic offensive, recognizing that the regional order is up for grabs.

The Nuclear Question: A Delicate Balance

The most profound element of the pact is Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power. This agreement implicitly, though not explicitly, introduces a nuclear dimension into the heart of Middle Eastern security.

• Deterrence or Provocation? From Saudi Arabia's perspective, this is the ultimate deterrent. It hopes the mere existence of this pact will prevent any future aggression. However, from the perspective of Israel and Iran, it represents a massive escalation, potentially forcing them to recalibrate their own military and strategic doctrines.

• The "Sunni Shield" Narrative: The pact solidifies a powerful bloc of Sunni Muslim nations, with Pakistan’s bomb acting as a counterweight to Shiite Iran’s nuclear ambitions and Israel’s presumed nuclear capabilities. This risks hardening the sectarian and geopolitical fault lines in the region, moving from a cold war to a much more volatile standoff.

Global Repercussions and Shifting Alliances

The ramifications of this defense pact extend far beyond the Middle East:

1. A Challenge to U.S. Influence: This is a stark indication of Riyadh’s desire to diversify its security partnerships away from Washington. While not a full break, it shows Saudi Arabia is willing to build an independent security infrastructure, reducing its reliance on the U.S. military umbrella.

2. A Dilemma for Washington: The United States now faces a complex challenge. Pakistan is a major non-NATO ally, while Saudi Arabia remains a critical energy partner. However, a mutual defense pact that could potentially draw a nuclear-armed Pakistan into a Middle Eastern conflict is a nightmare scenario for U.S. strategists.
   

3. 
   India's Strategic Anxiety: For India, Pakistan’s arch-rival, this is deeply troubling news. It formalizes the military alliance between its two adversaries—Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s close ally, China. India must now consider the possibility that a future crisis with Pakistan could, in the worst case, involve a much broader coalition or divert Pakistani resources and attention westward.

4. Iran's Isolation and Response: For Iran, the pact is the consolidation of a hostile, US-backed, and now nuclear-linked alliance on its flanks. The Larijani mission shows its strategy is two-fold: resist this consolidation through diplomacy while likely accelerating its own military and nuclear programs as an ultimate guarantee.  Being aware of what Iran represents for Shia Muslims, and recognizing that Pakistan has a large Shia Muslim community, steps are being taken to signal that this pact is not intended to threaten Iran or exclude Shia Muslims. To this end, on September 18, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia called his Iranian counterpart, not details of the call was made available. And on September 19, the Saudi Minister of Defense called his Iranian counterpart to inform "Iran of the details of the Saudi-Pakistani mutual defense treaty, and provided a document with information." Iran's DM thanked the Saudi Defense Ministry for its briefing, and offered its good wishes for the success of this alliance and Islamic nations in general, stating that "we will always support initiatives that seek to strengthen the mutual cooperation between Islamic nations." said Iran's Minister of Defense Aziz Nasirzadeh.
   

A New, More Dangerous Era

The Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact is not merely a signed document; it is a symptom of a world order fracturing and reorganizing itself. It is born from a moment of extreme crisis and has triggered a swift and calculated response from Iran, as seen in the Larijani mission.

While intended to create stability through deterrence, the pact risks creating a more brittle and dangerous landscape. By explicitly tying the fate of the Arabian Peninsula to the nuclear calculus of South Asia, it has created a tripwire that, if ever crossed, could escalate a regional conflict into a global catastrophe overnight. The world is now witnessing a high-stakes diplomatic chess game where the moves are bold, the players are nervous, and the consequences are unimaginable. The world will be watching this new axis of power with bated breath and profound concern.

Arab-Islamic Summit in Qatar Condemns Israeli Aggression, Warns Normalization is "Undermined"

Arab-Islamic Summit in Qatar Condemns Israeli Aggression, Warns Normalization is "Undermined"

    Sunday, September 14, 2025   No comments

Doha, Qatar – A pivotal joint summit of Arab and Islamic nations convened in Doha on Monday under a cloud of heightened urgency, with a draft declaration explicitly condemning recent Israeli aggression against Qatar and warning that Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza has effectively "undermined" all efforts to normalize relations in the region.

The emergency meeting, bringing together leaders and top diplomats, was called in response to what participants describe as an escalating crisis. The discussions are heavily influenced by a recently updated draft communique, seen by Reuters, which delivers a stark assessment of the current situation.

A Direct Threat to Regional Peace

The draft document leaves little room for ambiguity. It states that the recent "Israeli aggression against Qatar," coupled with a continuous series of violations, "constitutes a direct threat to all efforts aimed at normalizing relations with the entity."

It further elaborates that this aggression, along with Israel’s persistent hostile acts—including "genocide, ethnic cleansing, starvation, siege, settlement, and expansionist policies—threatens the prospects for peace and coexistence in the region."

This language represents a significant hardening of stance from many nations, some of whom had been cautiously pursuing closer ties with Israel through the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords. The draft declaration asserts that these Israeli policies "undo all that has been achieved in terms of normalizing relations, whether what has already been accomplished or what is in preparation."

Hamas Calls for Boycott and Isolation

The summit’s agenda was further shaped by a memorandum from Hamas, addressed directly to the foreign ministers gathered in Doha and to international organizations. The Palestinian group highlighted two critical events: the recent attempted assassination of its negotiating delegation in the Qatari capital and the failure of efforts to stop the "genocide" in the Gaza Strip.

In light of these events, Hamas called upon the assembled Arab and Islamic states to take decisive action by imposing a comprehensive political and economic boycott on Israel and working to isolate it on both the regional and international stages.

Context: A Region Under Fire

The summit occurs amidst what the draft describes as an Israeli assault not only on Qatar but on the entire region. The primary focus, however, remains the relentless war on Gaza, which has continued for months, resulting in a devastating toll of hundreds of thousands of martyrs, wounded, detainees, and missing persons.

The meeting in Doha thus transcends a mere diplomatic gathering; it is a response to a profound crisis. The strong language in the draft communique signals a potential strategic shift, moving away from the path of normalization and toward a unified front of condemnation and a demand for accountability, placing the future of regional relations firmly in jeopardy.

Opening remarks by Qatari PM Mohammad bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani at the ministerial meeting in Doha

Ahead of the regional emergency summit on Monday, the Qatari Prime Minister who also met with President Trump earlier said the following (summary of his opening remarks):

“We express our appreciation to the Arab states who condemned this Israeli barbaric attack and their support to the lawful measures we will take to safeguard our sovereignty.”

“Attacking Qatar’s sovereignty is a violation of the UN Charter, namely Article 4, which prohibits the use of force against countries and sovereignty. It is also a flagrant violation of international norms and humanitarian principles. It cannot be an isolated incident that goes unpunished. It must be met with fierce and firm measures.”

 “The inhumane Israeli government has crossed all the red lines. It continues to undermine and destabilize any state in the world and sabotage political efforts that conflict with its agenda or expose its propaganda. That is why we cannot remain silent in the face of this barbaric attack.”

“If we remain silent, we will be faced with an unlimited and countless series of aggressions that will end in total destruction, and no country will be spared.”

“It is time for the international community to abandon double standards and hold Israel accountable for all the crimes it has perpetrated. Israel must know that the continued genocidal war against the Palestinian people, aiming at forcibly transferring them from their homeland, cannot succeed no matter what false justification is provided.”

“The Israeli government continues to reject proposal after proposal, intentionally widening the circle of war and placing the region’s peoples, including their own, at grave risk. This region cannot enjoy peace, stability, or security, nor its peoples justice, without the Palestinians restoring their rights and establishing their independent state on the 1967 borders.”

 “We in the State of Qatar reiterate that moderation as a means for amicable settlement is not merely an obligation but an ethical responsibility deeply rooted in our philosophy. Just and lasting peace is our strategic choice.”

“Israeli barbaric practices and arrogance will not prevent us from continuing to cooperate with our partners in Egypt to bring this unjust, unlawful war to an end.”

 “It is no secret that last Thursday we stood before the Security Council to condemn the Israeli attack on Qatar, and we appreciate the solidarity expressed by states worldwide, as well as the statement issued by the Council.”

“Today, we must take harsh measures to put an end to Israel’s arrogance and its continued violations of international law and countless crimes carried out under the cover of the international community.”

“It is with pleasure that I welcome you to your second homeland, the State of Qatar, and express our full appreciation for your participation in this emergency Arab and Islamic summit convened following the treacherous Israeli aggression of September 9.”

Amidst Summit, U.S. Diplomatic Visit to Israel Sends Mixed Signals

As Arab and Islamic leaders gathered in Doha, a parallel diplomatic mission unfolded in Israel, highlighting the complex international dimensions of the crisis. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio embarked on a visit to Israel, a move intensely analyzed for its timing and message amidst the fallout from the attack on Qatar and the ongoing war in Gaza.

Israeli analyses, as reported, described the visit as a critical test for U.S.-Israel relations, questioning the level of security coordination and the limits of public American support for Israeli operations. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu portrayed the visit as "proof of the strength of the relationship with the United States," commentators suggested a more nuanced reality.

According to Israeli political analysts, Secretary Rubio’s mission conveyed a "mix of reassurance and pressure":

On Gaza: The visit aimed to discuss post-war arrangements, revealing a continuing gap between Israel’s vision of complete security control and the U.S. preference for solutions that open the door to broader regional deals.

On the Qatar Attack: The visit underscored Washington's embarrassment. While reaffirming strong ties, reports indicated dissatisfaction within the Trump administration with the operation, exposing the limits of U.S. support when Israeli actions directly conflict with American interests, such as the stability of a key Gulf mediator like Qatar.

On Palestinian Statehood: The visit confirmed the U.S. commitment to thwarting international efforts to recognize a Palestinian state at the upcoming UN General Assembly. However, analysts warned that American support alone may not be enough to stem the growing European momentum. 

Media review: Israeli Airstrike on Qatar Shakes Gulf States' Confidence in US Protection, Report Says

Media review: Israeli Airstrike on Qatar Shakes Gulf States' Confidence in US Protection, Report Says

    Friday, September 12, 2025   No comments

A recent Israeli military strike on Qatar’s capital has triggered a significant crisis of confidence among Gulf Arab states, casting serious doubt on the reliability of American security guarantees, according to a report by The Washington Post.

The attack, which targeted Doha, has reportedly fueled deep-seated anger and a sense of insecurity across the Persian Gulf. Analysts suggest that Israel’s apparent ease in carrying out the strike led many regional powers to a stark conclusion: if a U.S. partner like Qatar can be attacked, then no neighboring American ally is truly safe.

At the core of the growing disillusionment is the perception that the United States was either unable or unwilling to restrain its close ally, Israel, even when its actions directly threatened another American partner. This has fundamentally shaken the long-standing pillar of Gulf security, which has heavily relied on U.S. military and diplomatic backing for decades.

One researcher from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) noted that the uniquely close relationship between Washington and Jerusalem made this strike "qualitatively different" from previous conflicts. Rather than acting as a deterrent, the U.S. response was perceived as weak, often limited to "pro-forma expressions of dissatisfaction" without imposing any concrete, deterrent measures to stop what is seen as "Israel’s unrestricted military aggression in the region."

The strike has "reinforced the feeling that Washington is an unreliable security partner," the analyst stated.

This incident is not an isolated event but the latest in a years-long erosion of trust. The Post highlights that Gulf confidence in American protection has been declining through both Democratic and Republican administrations. This trend is driven by a perceived U.S. "strategic pivot" towards Asia and the diminished strategic importance of Middle Eastern oil to Washington.

Furthermore, the attack on Doha has undermined a previously held belief among some Gulf leaders that a close personal relationship with a U.S. president could directly influence policy. Hopes that such a bond with former President Donald Trump would shape American actions were decisively dashed by the bombing of Qatar.

The event signals a potential strategic inflection point, forcing Gulf nations to seriously reconsider the foundation of their security architecture and question the dependability of a partnership that has been a cornerstone of regional stability for over half a century.

Israeli Airstrike in Doha Sparks Global Condemnation and Regional Upheaval

Israeli Airstrike in Doha Sparks Global Condemnation and Regional Upheaval

    Wednesday, September 10, 2025   No comments

DOHA, QATAR – In a dramatic and unprecedented escalation that has sent shockwaves across the Middle East and the world, Israel launched a military strike on the capital of Qatar yesterday, targeting and killing senior leaders of the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The attack, which violated the airspace of multiple sovereign nations, has been universally condemned as a severe breach of international law and has critically damaged diplomatic efforts to end the war in Gaza, potentially signaling a major realignment of global power in the region.

The operation, codenamed "Summit of Fire" by the Israeli military, saw warplanes travel approximately 1,800 kilometers to reach Doha. According to reports from Arab media outlets, the Israeli Air Force breached the airspace of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Syria to reach its target. Once over the Qatari capital, the jets fired missiles at a residential compound housing members of Hamas's political bureau, who were in the country for talks. A Qatari security official was also reported killed in the attack.

The timing of the strike is seen by many observers as highly significant. It came just one day after the US President publicly issued a new proposal for a Gaza ceasefire deal, urging Hamas to accept it or "face consequences." With top Hamas leadership gathered in Doha—a key mediator throughout the conflict—to discuss the very proposal, the Israeli attack has led to widespread accusations that the diplomatic effort was a trap designed to eliminate the group's leadership in one fell swoop.

"This, as many observers noted, suggested that it might have been a trap to kill all Hamas top leadership, and that destroys US credibility as an honest broker of deals for peace," a point echoed by numerous diplomatic sources. The incident has placed the United States in a deeply awkward position, raising serious questions about its foreknowledge and role in the event.

Further intensifying the crisis is the glaring question of the massive US military presence in Qatar. Al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US military installation in the Middle East, houses advanced defense systems. The failure of these systems to intercept the Israeli aircraft or to provide Qatar with an early warning has sparked a crisis of confidence in Doha.

"The US not to use those defense resources to defend Qatar or at least warn it, suggests that US presence in Qatar is useless and does not provide any protection to Qatar," a consensus view emerging in the region. This perception was seemingly acknowledged by the US administration itself, with the President announcing he had ordered the State Department to finalize a new strategic defense deal with Qatar, an move interpreted as damage control for a severely weakened alliance.

The strategic ramifications are immediate. Global powers Russia and China were swift and forceful in their condemnation. They warned of a dangerous escalation and accused Israel of deliberately sabotaging peace negotiations. Analysts suggest that Qatar, now questioning the value of its US security umbrella, may rapidly pivot towards Moscow and Beijing for advanced defense systems, a move that would fundamentally alter the security architecture of the Gulf and could spell the end of the US military footprint in Qatar.

The attack also strains relations within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which promises collective security to its members. By violating the airspace of fellow GCC member Saudi Arabia to attack another member state, Israel has placed these US-allied nations in a difficult position, forcing them to confront a blatant violation of their sovereignty.

Global Outcry and Condemnation

The international response was swift and severe:

• United Nations: Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the attack "without ambiguity," calling it a "flagrant violation of the sovereignty of Qatar" and a blow to mediation efforts.

• Russia: Its foreign ministry stated the attack aimed to "undermine international efforts to reach a peaceful settlement in the Middle East."

• China: Expressed "strong dissatisfaction with the deliberate sabotage of the Gaza ceasefire negotiations" and urged major countries to play a "constructive role in easing regional tensions."

• European Union: Denounced the strike as a "violation of international law" and a "serious threat that could further escalate violence in the region."

• Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan decried the "reckless Netanyahu government" for its actions.

• Organization of Islamic Cooperation: Denounced the aggression "in the strongest terms."

Qatar issued a furious statement, vowing it "would not tolerate this reckless Israeli behavior" and emphasizing that the "criminal assault is a violation of all international laws and a serious threat to the security and safety of Qataris and residents."

The strike marks a dangerous new chapter in the Gaza conflict, moving the battlefield into the heart of a mediator's capital and risking a much broader regional war. It has not only targeted Hamas leadership but has also severely damaged America's standing as a security partner and honest broker, potentially creating a vacuum that rivals Russia and China are poised to fill.