Islamic Societies Review WEEKLY: All

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Saturday, January 18, 2025

Islamic Societies Reviews' (ISR's) most popular news stories of 2024

Saturday, January 18, 2025 No comments

The year 2024 was another pivotal year in terms of events and coverage of those events. Here are the most popular news stories of 2024, as determined by what drew the most readers. We also have a collections of ISR MONTHLY.

Wednesday, January 08, 2025

Are the fighting in the north and the resisting in the south signs of disintegration of Syria?

Wednesday, January 08, 2025 No comments

Weeks since the fall of the Baath regime in Syria, one main armed faction, the most organized and powerful group—HTS, took control of the country. The group’s leader has been acting as the country’s leader and governments that supported the armed rebellion are accepting his role as the de facto leader. However, instead of starting a process of reconciliation, the new rulers are placing themselves in a positions that would allow them to control the future of the country. This approach appears to be pushing other groups to do the same: hold tight to whatever power they secured in the past 14 years and leverage such power to secure a significant role in the future. This trend may result in the breakdown of Syrian into at least three regions, similar to what happened in Libya. These are some of the signs that point to that possibility.

Violent clashes between Turkey-supported "National Army" and US-supported "SDF"

Newsmedia correspondents in Syria reported on Wednesday that a Turkish drone targeted a SDF vehicle in the countryside of Ayn al-Arab "Kobani" in the eastern countryside of Aleppo.

The report detailed that the vicinity of the Qarqozak Bridge, located south of the city of Ayn al-Arab "Kobani", was subjected to Turkish artillery shelling, while the factions of the "National Army", affiliated with Turkey, bombed the SDF sites at the bridge with missiles. A Turkish drone targeted a SDF rocket launcher in the village of Sakul in the countryside of Manbij, east of Aleppo.

In the same context, the media center of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) confirmed that "Turkish warplanes bombed Tishrin Dam and its surroundings with a number of raids, coinciding with attacks carried out by the mercenary factions affiliated with Turkey on villages north of Tishrin Dam and southeast of Manbij, where violent clashes are taking place between the forces of the Manbij Military Council and the mercenaries."

In Kobani, Turkish drones bombed a civilian car in the village of "Kirk-Girik", in addition to artillery shelling on the village of "Aslanki" south of the city.

According to the center, the danger of the Tishrin Dam collapsing is increasing, as the Turkish state bears any disaster that may befall the dam and other Syrian regions as a result of the Turkish air and artillery attacks that reached their peak during the morning hours today, and which continue until now.

The center confirmed that "the forces of the Manbij Military Council destroyed two vehicles loaded with Dushka weapons belonging to the mercenaries of the Turkish occupation north of Tishrin Dam during the ongoing clashes there."

The Turkish drone targeted a "Qasd" car in an airstrike in the vicinity of the city of Al-Malikiyah, northeast of Al-Hasakah, in the far northeast of Syria.

In Southern Syria, armed groups' leaders say they are not convinced to hand over weapons

The spokesman for the Southern Operations Room, which controls Daraa province, Nassim Abu Ara, said that the room’s fighters are not convinced by the idea of dissolving the armed groups announced by the new Syrian administration on December 25 of last year, when the new rulers confirmed that they had reached an agreement with the armed groups regarding their dissolution and integration under the Ministry of Defense.

In an interview with Agence France-Presse, Abu Ara confirmed that the fighters are hesitant to disarm and disband their ranks as ordered by the new rulers, noting that he and those with him are "an organized force in the south, possessing heavy weapons and equipment, and led by officers who defected from the army of the former regime," suggesting that they be merged as a military body with the Ministry of Defense. Abu Ara added that the "Southern Operations Room" led by local leader Ahmed al-Awda includes thousands of men who have no Islamic affiliation, and sources close to the group indicated that al-Awda enjoys good relations with Russia, as well as Jordan and the Emirates.

Tuesday, January 07, 2025

Israeli government committee: Turkey-backed Syria may pose greater threat than Iran

Tuesday, January 07, 2025 No comments

An Israeli government committee said Monday that Turkey could pose a greater threat to Israel than Iran in Syria if it backs a hostile “Sunni Islamist” force in Damascus.

Ankara has emerged as a major beneficiary of the collapse of Bashar Assad’s government in Syria last month, following an offensive by rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other Turkish-backed Syrian groups.

Since then, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pledged all forms of support, including military and security assistance, to help the new Syrian caretaker government establish public order in the country under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Julani.

The “Committee to Evaluate the Defense Establishment Budget and Balance of Power,” headed by former National Security Council head Yaakov Nagel, is commonly referred to in Hebrew media as the Nagel Committee or the Nagel Committee.

The committee was established in 2023, before the outbreak of the Israeli war on Gaza, with the aim of making recommendations to the Defense Ministry on potential areas of conflict that Israel could face in the coming years.

The committee said that “the origins of the rebels and their leaders,” some of whom were previously associated with groups such as Al-Qaeda, should not be ignored.

For this reason, we must take into account that Israel may face a new threat emerging in Syria, which in some respects may be no less dangerous than the previous threat. This threat may take the form of a radical Sunni force that also refuses to recognize the existence of Israel,” the committee said.

Moreover, since the Sunni rebels will exercise political power by virtue of their central control in Syria, they may pose a greater threat than the Iranian threat, which has been limited by Israel’s continued actions, as well as the restrictions imposed on Iran by the sovereign Syrian state.

The committee warned that the problem could intensify if the Syrian force effectively becomes a proxy for Turkey, “as part of Turkey’s ambition to restore the Ottoman Empire to its former glory.”

We must prepare for war with Türkiye

Israeli media reported that a government committee recommended in its report to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, yesterday, Monday, to prepare for a possible war with Turkey, in light of growing concerns in Tel Aviv about Ankara’s alliance with the new administration in Damascus after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

The Jerusalem Post quoted the committee’s report as proposing to increase the defense budget by up to NIS 15 billion ($4.1 billion) annually over the next five years, to ensure that Israeli forces are equipped to deal with the challenges posed by Turkey, as well as other regional threats.

The committee also recommended several measures to prepare for a possible confrontation with Turkey:

Advanced weapons: Acquiring additional F-15 fighter jets, refueling aircraft, drones and satellites to enhance Israel’s ability to carry out long-range strikes.

Air defense systems: Enhancing multi-layered air defense capabilities, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow and the newly operational laser defense system.

Border security: Building a fortified security barrier along the Jordan Valley, which would represent a major shift in Israel’s defense strategy despite the potential diplomatic fallout with Jordan.

The Israeli Prime Minister's Office said in a statement on Monday that Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich had received the Nagel Committee's recommendations.

According to the statement, Netanyahu said, "We are in the midst of a fundamental change in the situation in the Middle East. We have known for years that Iran poses the greatest threat to us, both directly and through its proxies."

He continued, "Of course, we were keen to hit this axis hard. But we have seen the reality that: First, Iran is still there, and second, additional forces have entered the field, and we always need to be prepared for what may come."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had warned - a few weeks before the Syrian armed opposition overthrew the regime of Bashar al-Assad - that Israeli military moves in Syria could pose a direct threat to Turkey's security on its southern border.

Monday, January 06, 2025

Indonesia now has full membership in BRICS

Monday, January 06, 2025 No comments

Indonesia has officially joined the BRICS group of major emerging economies as a full member, the Brazilian government said in a statement on Monday, a bloc that brings together emerging economies including China, India and Russia.

The Brazilian Foreign Ministry said the most populous country in Southeast Asia “shares with other members the desire to reform global governance institutions and contribute positively to cooperation within the Global South.”

Indonesia’s candidacy was approved at the 2023 BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Brazil will assume the presidency of the group in 2025. BRICS comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but is expanding to include other countries.

Indonesia formally put in request for BRICS membership last year during the organization's meeitng in Russia.

After the announcement from Barizil, China released its own statement saying that it "welcomes and warmly congratulates Indonesia on becoming a full member of BRICS", according to a foreign ministry spokesperson.

Monday, December 23, 2024

Türkiye cashing in early its investment in Syria's rebels; other regional leaders are following US footsteps and visiting Damascus

Monday, December 23, 2024 No comments

Media review: How some media outlets, commentators, and politicians from the Middle East are reacting to the fast moving developments in Syria.

In a visit that could be considered a celebration of the success of the efforts to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who was the head of intelligence and is considered one of the most prominent figures who contributed to supporting the “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” organization that overthrew Assad, arrived in the Syrian capital, Damascus, to hold consultations with the new authorities in the country, represented by Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), the leader of the organization and commander of military operations, whom Turkey helped transform from a “jihadist leader” to a “statesman.” However, the visit, which coincides with the continuation of international political deliberations, in which Ankara plays a prominent role, took on a clear protocol form, as part of Ankara’s efforts to establish the legitimacy of the ruling authorities at the present time, especially after Washington announced its involvement in relations with the “Hayat.” Fidan’s keenness to demonstrate his strong relationship with al-Sharaa and demonstrate Turkey’s victory in the Syrian battle was also evident through a visit to Mount Qasioun, where the two men drank tea from the highest peak in Damascus. Turkish statements similar to those of the "High Commissioner" during the French mandate, by talking about the future of Syria and identifying the names that will rule the country, are accepted by the new American administration headed by Donald Trump, who will enter the White House in less than a month, which will provide Turkey with a large space for political and security work in Syria, by establishing a government loyal to Ankara on the one hand, and reducing the Kurdish role that the latter is still fighting, on the other hand.

The Turkish Foreign Minister, in statements he made after a meeting with "al-Julani" during which he discussed the political developments in Syria and the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey and ways to open the door for their return, indicated that he conveyed the greetings of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, continuing, in his victory speech, that "the Baath regime that lasted 61 years left behind great suffering, and we are here today to stand with you in achieving your aspirations." He added: "Your joy is our joy and your sadness is our sadness, and we are proud to support the truth and stand by you," stressing the need to "draft a new constitution that respects all components of Syrian society and guarantees the rights of minorities," in a way that opens the door to "building a new Syria, with full Turkish support." He pointed out that "President Erdogan issued his instructions to support you in everything you need to achieve progress. We are here to begin a new phase of construction."

For its part, and in the context of what Ankara considers a "victory" for it, the Turkish "Anadolu" agency broadcast two photos; the first of which shows Fidan with "al-Julani", and the other of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi with al-Assad, on the first of this month, noting that the time difference between the two photos is 3 weeks.

Turkish relations with new Syrian leaders will be determined by how the Kurdish matter will be handled. Here is what the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan, said in that regard:

"We must take action immediately. The territorial integrity of Syria is non-negotiable. I would like to clarify once again that there is absolutely no place for Kurdish armed groups in Syria."

Advanced steps, therefore, cannot be taken until some of the outstanding problems with the factions in the north and south are resolved, in addition to reaching an agreement under which the Kurds in the "SDF" are integrated into the new administration. However, the last mission seems somewhat difficult in light of the ongoing battles between the factions of the "National Army" affiliated with Turkey and the "SDF" in many areas, most notably the "Tishreen Dam" area, which field sources reported that the battles taking place in its vicinity caused severe damage to it.

Friday, December 20, 2024

US officials sat face to face with the person US government designated a "terrorist"

Friday, December 20, 2024 No comments

US officials sat face to face with the person US government designated a "terrorist" and offered $10 million bounty for his arrest. Realizing the awkwardness of the moment, the administration announced later that it will cancel the reward for Jolani’s arrest.

In what must be a bizarre turn of events, US government officials set face to face with a man they allocated $10 million for information leading to determining his whereabouts, after designating him as a "terrorist" in 2017.

State department still confirmed that the reward money is still valid, at a time when members of the State Department reportedly sat with Jolani.

This development raises questions about the designation "terrorist", and now about what it takes for one to be removed from the list, which apparently is leading an armed rebellion that overthrows a regime.

US Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf announced, following a meeting with representatives of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, that Ahmed al-Sharaa (al-Jolani) is committed to not allowing terrorist groups to operate in Syria in a way that threatens the United States and neighboring countries.

According to news reports, US State Department delegation discussed with the commander-in-chief of the new administration in Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, on Friday, lifting sanctions on the Syrian people. The two sides also discussed removing Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham from the terrorist lists.

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Media Review: US state department worker, "Tired of writing about dead kids"

Wednesday, December 18, 2024 No comments

This week, the Guardian published a report about another American protesting the US government's position on the war in Gaza, this time a US state department worker resigned over Israel-Gaza policy.

When Mike Casey arrived in Jerusalem in 2020, he wasn’t looking for a fight.

An army veteran with a stint in Iraq who joined the state department for over a decade of postings across Asia, he came with the measured optimism of a career diplomat – two years of Arabic training ahead, a potential change in administration, and a chance to make a difference. He’d eventually work his way up the ranks to become the state department’s deputy political counselor on Gaza.

What he didn’t anticipate was becoming a key witness to what he describes as a systematic failure of US foreign policy.

“The more informed you become on this issue, you can’t avoid realizing how bad it is,” Casey told the Guardian.

Casey resigned from the state department in July after four years at the job, discreetly leaving the post unlike other recent high-profile government departures. Now seated at his kitchen table in the quiet suburbs of northern Michigan, Casey reflected on how, as one of only two people in the entire US government explicitly focused on Gaza, he became an unwilling chronicler of a humanitarian catastrophe.

“I got so tired of writing about dead kids,” he said. “Just constantly having to prove to Washington that these children actually died and then watching nothing happen.”

Casey’s work function included documenting the humanitarian and political landscape through classified cables, research and reporting. But his disillusionment wasn’t sudden. It was a slow accumulation of bureaucratic betrayals – each report dismissed, each humanitarian concern bulldozed by political expediency.

“We would write daily updates on Gaza,” he said. Colleagues used to joke, he said, that they could attach cash to the reports and still nobody would read them.

Read the article...

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Islamic D-8: can this intergovernmental organization help stabilize Southwest Asia and North Africa?

Tuesday, December 17, 2024 No comments

Cairo will host the 11th edition of the D8 Summit on Thursday, 19-12-2024, which will discuss ways to confront successive global economic and political changes. The summit will be held under the slogan "Investing in Youth and Supporting Small and Medium Enterprises: Shaping Tomorrow's Economy."

Egypt chairs the current edition of the summit, having assumed the presidency of the group last May and will continue to lead its work until the end of next year.

Several summits and bilateral meetings are scheduled to be held on the sidelines of the D8 Summit in Cairo, whether at the level of presidents or delegations participating in the conference.

The meeting of the foreign ministers of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Malaysia, and Bangladesh will be held tomorrow, Wednesday.

Several heads of state will be attending this summit this year, including Iran's president.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian plans to attend the summit of the Developing Eight (D8) Islamic countries in Egypt on Thursday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tuesday. This is the first visit by an Iranian president to Egypt in more than a decade.

Relations between Egypt and Iran have generally been tense in recent decades, but the two countries have intensified high-level diplomatic contacts since the Gaza war broke out last year, in which Egypt has tried to mediate. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi traveled to Egypt in October to discuss regional issues with Egyptian officials, and his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdel Aty traveled to Tehran in July to attend Pezeshkian’s inauguration.

Indonesian president will attend D-8

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto will travel to Egypt on Tuesday to attend meetings of a group of eight major Muslim nations known as the Developing Eight (D8) Economic Cooperation Organization, the government said.

Prabowo will attend meetings, including a D8 summit on Thursday, and accept the group’s chairmanship for a two-year term starting on Jan. 1, 2026, Foreign Ministry spokesman Roy Soemirat told reporters on Monday.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will participate tomorrow, Wednesday, in the 21st meeting of the G8 Foreign Ministers Council, which will be held in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, within the framework of the D8 Summit.

According to diplomatic sources in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, the meeting will address developments in the Palestinian Gaza Strip and other regional issues.

During the meeting, Fidan is expected to call for an immediate end to the genocide committed by Israel in Palestine and its measures aimed at turning the war into a regional conflict.

He is also expected to point out the importance of advancing efforts to implement the two-state solution in conjunction with reaching an immediate ceasefire.

Fidan will highlight the importance of providing urgent humanitarian aid to Gaza and increasing support for the efforts of the workers of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).

The meeting of the Foreign Ministers Council comes within the framework of preparing for the summit hosted by Cairo next Thursday, with the participation of delegations from the group's countries: Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan, Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh.

The summit is scheduled to be held under the theme “Investing in Youth and Supporting SMEs: Shaping Tomorrow’s Economy.”

Attendance of the D-8 Summit in Cairo

The Indonesian government announced that President Prabowo Subianto will travel to Egypt today, Tuesday, to attend the group's meetings and the upcoming summit next Thursday, and will accept the group's presidency for a year.

In addition, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei announced that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will participate in the G8 Summit in Egypt.

The Pakistani Embassy in Cairo also confirmed that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will pay an official visit to Egypt from December 18 to 20 to participate in the summit's activities.

President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi handed the Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati an invitation to participate in the summit's activities, as the Lebanese Prime Minister received the invitation from the Egyptian Ambassador Alaa Moussa, during his reception on December 9 at the Grand Serail.

The Middle East Eye website also reported that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will participate in the group's meeting and will hold meetings related to current developments in Syria.

About the D-8: the Developing Eight

The G8, also known as the Developing Eight, is a development cooperation system between the following member states: Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey. This system also adds a new dimension aimed at strengthening economic relations and social ties among its members.

The G8 was officially established at the Summit of Heads of State and Government held in Istanbul on June 15, 1997 (Istanbul Declaration), following the "Cooperation for Development" Conference held on October 22, 1996 and a series of preparatory meetings.

The G8 aims to:

Improving the position of developing countries in the global economy.

Creating new opportunities in trade relations.

Enhancing the participation of developing countries in international decision-making.

Achieving better living standards.

The most important features of the G8:

It is a global system, not a regional one, as is clearly evident in its founding members.

Its membership is open to other developing countries that share the objectives and principles of the Group and are linked by common ties with it.

It is a forum that has no adverse effect on the bilateral and international obligations of its member states towards its membership and towards international organizations.

Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Afghan Refugee Minister Assassinated in Explosion at Ministry HQ

Wednesday, December 11, 2024 No comments

Afghan Refugees Minister Khalilur Rahman Haqqani was killed on Wednesday in an explosion at his ministry, a government source told AFP.

The Taliban government spokesman denounced a “despicable attack” by the Islamic State group, paying tribute to a “great fighter” who had “become a martyr.”

According to the "Islamic Emirate" official, the ISIS group is responsible for this attack.

The official stated: "With deep regret, we have learned that the Minister of Refugees and Repatriation of the Islamic Emirate was martyred this afternoon in a cowardly attack by the Khawarij."

The explosion, for which no group has yet claimed responsibility, took place “at the headquarters of the Ministry of Refugees,” a government source told AFP, adding that it was a suicide bombing.

“Unfortunately, an explosion occurred at the Ministry of Refugees and we can confirm that Minister Khalilur Rahman Haqqani was martyred along with a number of his colleagues,” the source, who asked not to be named, said.

Security forces cordoned off the neighborhood where the ministry is located in central Kabul, AFP correspondents reported.

The ministry’s Twitter account reported that training workshops had been held at the site in recent days.

Every day, large numbers of displaced people head to the ministry to ask for help or push for resettlement, in a country that is home to more than 3 million people displaced by war.

"Global Terrorist"

Khalilur Rahman, who carried an automatic weapon in all his appearances, is the brother of Jalaluddin, the founder of the Haqqani Network, which is attributed to the most violent attacks witnessed in Afghanistan during the two decades of Taliban rule that ended the US invasion of the country in 2001. He is also the uncle of the current Minister of the Interior, Sirajuddin Haqqani.

The United States has offered a financial reward of up to five million dollars for information on Khalilur Rahman, describing him as a "prominent leader in the Haqqani Network", which Washington has classified as a "terrorist organization".

In February 2011, the US Treasury Department designated him a "global terrorist".

He was subject to sanctions by the United States and the United Nations, which estimated him to be 58 years old.

The Haqqani Network appears to be involved in a power struggle within the Taliban government. According to press reports, the struggle is between a camp demanding the strict application of Sharia law, as per the approach of the Taliban's supreme leader based in Kandahar, and a more pragmatic camp in Kabul.

Since the Taliban returned to power following the US withdrawal in the summer of 2021, violence in Afghanistan has declined. However, the local branch of the Islamic State (ISIS-Khorasan Province) remains active in the country and has claimed responsibility for a series of attacks targeting civilians, foreigners, and Taliban officials.

Explosions have been heard in Kabul on several occasions, reported by local sources, but Taliban officials rarely confirm such incidents.

In late October, a child was killed and about a dozen people were injured in an attack on a market in the city center.

In September, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for a suicide attack that killed six people and wounded 13 at the office of the public prosecutor in Kabul.

The group said its goal was to “avenge Muslims in Taliban prisons,” although the movement often announces the arrest or killing of members of the organization, while stressing that it has confronted the organization in the country.

Media Review: Syrian opposition received Ukrainian support to undermine Russia and its allies

Wednesday, December 11, 2024 No comments

Armed rebels takeover of government buildings in Syria

The Washington Post reported that “the Syrian opposition that seized power in Damascus last weekend received drones and other support from Ukrainian intelligence agents who sought to undermine Russia and its Syrian allies,” according to sources familiar with Ukrainian military activities abroad.

The sources told the newspaper that “Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago to assist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.”

Western intelligence sources believe, according to the newspaper, that Kiev’s assistance played only a modest role in the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but it was notable as part of a broader Ukrainian effort to covertly strike Russian operations in the Middle East, Africa and inside Russia itself.

“Ukraine’s covert aid program in Syria was an open secret, though senior Biden administration officials have repeatedly said they were unaware of it,” she added. “The motivation behind it is clear: Facing a Russian onslaught inside their country, Ukrainian intelligence looked for other fronts where it could bloody Russia’s nose and undermine its clients.”

Tuesday, December 10, 2024

Media review: Is Syria on the verge of a being a failed state?

Tuesday, December 10, 2024 No comments

From the developments of the last few days alone, Syria seems to be on a path of being a failed state in a region that is very volatile. Here are the recent events and how the world is reacting to them according to media reports.

Israel announced on Tuesday the destruction of about 70%-80% of the capabilities of the Syrian army

According to Israel's military forces, about 350 fighter jets from the Israeli Air Force participated in the campaign, attacking about 320 targets throughout Syria.

It added that "a number of warplanes and helicopters, radars, surface-to-air missile batteries, ships, surface-to-surface missiles, rocket shells, weapons production sites, weapons depots, Scud missiles, cruise missiles, sea-to-sea missiles, drones, and others were destroyed."

The Israeli Army Radio reported on Tuesday that the air force "attacked 250 targets in Syria in recent days," in an attack it described as "one of the largest in our history."

The radio reported, citing a military source, that "the air force destroyed dozens of Syrian warplanes in its attacks."

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the Israeli "army" "destroyed the most important military sites in Syria."

The observatory added that it "documented about 310 Israeli raids on Syrian territory since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime on Sunday," while journalists from Agence France-Presse in the capital reported that they heard explosions early Tuesday.

Agence France-Presse reported that the Scientific Research Center in Damascus, affiliated with the Syrian Ministry of Defense, which was targeted by Israeli raids on Monday evening, was completely destroyed.

In parallel with the air aggression, the Israeli armed forces occupied 9 villages in the southern countryside of Damascus, according to Israeli media.

The Israeli media said that "the army reached the vicinity of the town of Qatna in the Damascus countryside, 10 km (about 6 miles) from the neighborhoods of Damascus and 15 km (about 9 miles) from the city center, adding that "the army is present in the interior regions of Syria."

In the same context, the Syrian newspaper "Al-Watan" indicated today, Tuesday, that "Israeli army forces penetrated into the south of Damascus Governorate."

The reports stated that Israeli forces "took control of the town of Hina, which is about 31 miles from Damascus, reaching the outskirts of Khan al-Shih in the Qatna area, located opposite the Lebanese Rashaya area."

In the same context, Reuters quoted 3 security sources as saying that "the Israeli military incursion into Syria reached about 25 kilometers southwest of Damascus."

Reuters added that Israeli forces "reached Qatana, which is located 10 kilometers inside Syrian territory to the east of the buffer zone."

Arab rejection of Israel's seizure of buffer zone with Syria

Arab countries expressed their rejection, on Monday, of Israel's seizure of the buffer zone with Syria after announcing the collapse of the separation of forces agreement with Damascus following the fall of the regime of ousted President Bashar al-Assad.

This came in official statements issued by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq and the Arab League, while the Israeli Army Radio said on Monday that army forces had penetrated the buffer zone with Syria by land, while continuing to carry out extensive air strikes with heavy bombs on sites in the area.

On Sunday, Israel announced the collapse of the 1974 separation of forces agreement with Syria, and the deployment of the Israeli army in the demilitarized buffer zone in the Syrian Golan Heights, most of which it has occupied since 1967.

The Israeli move came after Syrian opposition factions entered the capital Damascus and took control of it, with the withdrawal of regime forces from public institutions and streets, thus ending a 61-year era of Baath Party rule and 53 years of Assad family rule.

In a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Qatar strongly condemned the Israeli occupation's seizure of the buffer zone with Syria and the adjacent leadership sites, and considered it a dangerous development and a blatant attack on Syria's sovereignty and unity and a flagrant violation of international law.

It warned that the policy of imposing a fait accompli pursued by the Israeli occupation, including its attempts to occupy Syrian lands, will lead the region to more violence and tension.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the attacks carried out by the Israeli occupation government by seizing the buffer zone in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights and targeting Syrian lands confirm Israel's continued violation of the rules of international law and its determination to sabotage Syria's chances of restoring its security, stability and territorial integrity.

Kuwait also expressed in a statement by the Foreign Ministry its strong condemnation and denunciation of the Israeli occupation forces' occupation of the buffer zone on the Syrian border, and considered it a blatant violation of international laws and Security Council resolutions.

It stressed the importance of the international community assuming its responsibilities to put an end to the series of Israeli attacks on the countries of the region, and to hold accountable the perpetrators of these violations in order to preserve regional and international security and peace.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said in a speech before his country's parliament that Amman condemns Israel's entry into Syrian territory and its control over the buffer zone, and categorically rejects this aggression, and stresses the unity of Syria and the unity of its territories and cohesion.

The Iraqi Foreign Ministry also expressed in a statement its "condemnation of the Zionist entity's seizure of the buffer zone with Syria in the Golan and the lands adjacent to it," indicating that this measure represents a flagrant violation of international law and relevant international legitimacy resolutions.

The Arab League had expressed, in a statement on Sunday, its full condemnation of what the Israeli occupation seeks to achieve illegally, taking advantage of the developments in the internal situation in Syria, whether in terms of occupying additional lands in the Golan or considering the 1974 disengagement agreement expired.

UN keeps troops in Golan, criticizes Israel's entry into buffer zone

The United Nations confirmed on Monday that it will keep its forces in the buffer zone in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, and said that Israel's entry into the area constitutes a violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement with Syria.

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said that the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) informed the Israelis that these actions constitute a violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement.

He explained that the Israeli forces that entered the buffer zone are still deployed in 3 locations.

He stressed that "there should be no military forces or activities in the separation zone. Israel and Syria must continue to implement the provisions of the 1974 agreement and maintain stability in the Golan."

For his part, the spokesman for the international peacekeeping forces in the Golan, Nick Bernbach, said that these forces are still in their positions despite the Israeli army's control of the buffer zone.

He added that the peacekeeping forces will remain in their positions in the Golan as long as the Security Council does not adopt any change in their mandate.

For its part, the United States said that "Israel's incursion into the buffer zone in the Golan should be temporary."

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader: Syria will not engage in another war

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which along with allied factions launched an offensive that toppled President Bashar al-Assad, said the Syrian people were "exhausted" by years of conflict and that the country would not see "another war".

"People are exhausted from war. So the country is not ready for another war, and it will not engage in another (war)," al-Jolani, who has begun using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, said in an interview with Britain's Sky News broadcast on Tuesday.

Two sources close to the Syrian opposition fighters told Reuters on Tuesday that the opposition leadership had ordered its fighters to withdraw from cities and to deploy units affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from the police and internal security forces.

Hezbollah condemns occupation of lands in Syria: We hope it will stabilize and be in a position of rejecting its enemy "Israel"

Hezbollah stressed that the Israeli entity's occupation of more Syrian territories and its attack on military capabilities are "a dangerous aggression that must be strongly condemned," holding the Security Council, the international community, and Arab and Islamic countries "responsible for rejecting and ending it, and protecting the Syrian people at a sensitive and pivotal stage in its history."

In a statement issued on Tuesday evening, Hezbollah expressed hope that "Syria will settle on the choices of its people, achieve its renaissance, and be in a position of rejecting the Israeli occupation, preventing foreign interference in its affairs."

In the same context, Hezbollah stressed that what is happening in Syria, on the popular and political levels, and the internal and external political choices that will result from it, are "the exclusive right of the Syrian people, independent of any external influences and pressures."

While he stressed that he would remain "a supporter of Syria and its people in their right to build their future and confront their enemy, the Israeli entity," he urged taking all steps that would prevent the occupying entity from achieving its goals, and not remaining silent or watching the Israeli aggression against Syria and its people.

In this context, Hezbollah pointed out that the complete silence, Arab, Islamic and international, towards the aggression on Syria, with unlimited American support, and the failure to take practical measures to confront this aggression and support the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights, led to "Zionist excesses and encroachment on the countries of the region."

He also pointed out that "it has always warned of Israeli ambitions in the entire region, and resisted them to prevent the occupation from achieving its goals, and reiterated that the aggression on Gaza is a war of extermination and a starting point to change the face of the region and end the Palestinian cause."

It is noteworthy that Hezbollah previously confirmed that the continuing crimes committed by the Israeli occupation on Syrian territory, whether through occupying more lands in the Golan Heights, or striking and destroying the defensive capabilities of the Syrian state, "represent blatant aggression and a blatant violation of the sovereignty of the state and people in Syria."

Syria's UN envoy: Our mission continues its work... and "Israel" exploits the change of power

Syria's permanent representative to the United Nations, Qusay al-Dahhak, said that Damascus calls on the UN Security Council and the UN Secretary-General to prevent "Israel" from exploiting the change of power in the country.

This came during a press conference at the United Nations on Monday, commenting on the Israeli aggression against Syria, saying: "On instructions from the current government, Syria has appealed to the Security Council and the Secretary-General of the United Nations, demanding that they stop the Israeli aggression."

He continued: "The Syrian Permanent Mission to the United Nations continues its work as part of the state institutions in the country, and we represent the interests of the Syrian people, and we will continue to do so."

He added: "We are working with the current Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, and we are waiting for a new government."

Washington: We have interests in Syria... and our forces will remain

The United States announced today that its forces will remain in Syria, while it and European countries are still studying how to deal with the armed factions that overthrew the Assad regime, and will discuss this at the upcoming G7 meeting.

US Deputy National Security Advisor John Fine confirmed during an interview at the Reuters Next conference in New York that "Washington has major interests in Syria and will express them to the relevant parties as required." Noting that US forces in Syria "are there for an important reason and are not a bargaining chip," he announced in response to a question that they will remain in Syria.

He pointed out that "the countries on the borders with Syria have justified concerns about developments," considering that "there are major risks associated with what happened in Syria as well as opportunities." Regarding communication with "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham," Fine announced that Washington "is still working on how to deal with the groups that overthrew Assad," explaining that "the classification of these groups will be based on what they do, not what they say they will do."

Earlier today, the European Union's foreign policy chief, Kaya Kallas, commented on the latest developments in Syria, saying that although "the initial signals are good," "new people are judged by their actions," noting "legitimate concerns about the risks of sectarian violence in Syria and the resurgence of extremism in the country." She also considered that "the fall of Assad represents a blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran."

In this context, the Group of Seven will discuss the latest developments in Syria next Friday, in a virtual meeting.

According to Agence France-Presse, the meeting, which was called before the fall of the Assad regime, was scheduled to be an official handover to Canada, which will assume the presidency of the group, but the meeting will address "other international crises, from Ukraine to the Middle East," including "the unrest in Syria."

Sunday, December 08, 2024

After the one-family rule collapses in Syria, Is Egypt's one man rule next?

Sunday, December 08, 2024 No comments

"Syria, Assad, wa-bass (and that is it), was no winning slogan. Future of country's cannot be built long-term on the basis of a single figure or a single family. What happened in Syria in the last 14 years is a good example of this political truith.

The fall of the single party single family rule in Syria has collapsed. Egypt's one man rule through the exclusion of any significant political force could put that regime on a path to weakness and possible collapse, too. These small steps by the government in Egypt may suggest their awareness of the dangers of exclusion.

Egypt's government releases political prisoners, Azhar welcomes the move

Al-Azhar welcomes Sisi’s directives to remove hundreds of people from terrorist lists and calls for investing in them and building on them.. A debate between those who welcome and those who are cautious and Amr Adeeb: Either us or the Brotherhood.

The repercussions of the decision to remove hundreds of Egyptians from terrorist lists are still ongoing, and no voice is louder than them.

The new thing was in the statement of the Grand Imam, Prof. Dr. Ahmed El-Tayeb, Sheikh of Al-Azhar Al-Sharif, and his deep welcome of the directives of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, President of the Republic, which paved the way for removing hundreds of people from the terrorist lists, and giving them the opportunity to start a new page to live normally in their homeland and reunite their families, stressing that it represents a good step, and everyone must invest in it and build on it; for the benefit of our beloved country, calling on God Almighty to preserve our Egypt, and protect it from all harm and evil.

Al-Azhar's statement was met with varying opinions, between those who welcomed it and those who expressed reservations about it.

These developments cannot be understood in isolation from what has been happening in Syria. Arab rulers and governments of neighboring countries are fact-spinning the development to limit their wider effects.

Of note, Egyptian media reported that security forces arrested a group of Syrians in Egypt after they participated in celebrations of the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Turkey's Fidan: The Syrian opposition must unite and form a new, non-exclusionary administration

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stressed that "the new Syria should not pose a threat to its neighbors, but should eliminate threats."

Fidan called from Doha for "establishing a new Syrian administration that is non-exclusionary and without a desire for revenge", and for preserving Syrian institutions, and also called for "the opposition forces to unite."

He pointed out that "the Syrian opposition forces consist of different groups, but the coordination mechanism will improve in the coming days."

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced that “a 14-year era of instability in Syria has ended,” noting that “Ankara does not know anything about the fate of President Bashar al-Assad.” Fidan revealed in a press conference held today that “the Syrian regime could have taken advantage of the opportunity of the Astana talks to reach national reconciliation, but it did not want to,” noting that “President Recep Tayyip Erdogan extended his hand to achieve unity in Syria, but the Syrian regime refused.” At the same time, Fidan expressed his country’s concern about “organizations such as ISIS that may exploit these developments in Syria, and Turkey is closely monitoring them to ensure that they do not control any parts of Syria in any way, and we are coordinating with friends such as the United States in this regard.” Regarding the Kurdistan Workers' Party, Fidan said, "Any extension or expansion of the Kurdistan Workers' Party militia cannot be considered a legitimate entity in Syria, and America is aware of the sensitivity of our position towards it." He continued, "The PKK cannot be part of the Syrian opposition and factions, because they are not Syrian factions, but terrorist factions, and everyone knows that, so there will be no cooperation with them at all." He stressed that "Turkey will take appropriate measures towards any threats."

Iran calls for Syria's fate to be determined and a government formed "without foreign interference"

Iran called for "determining the fate" of Syria's future, and forming an inclusive government that represents all segments of the Syrian people, "without destructive foreign interference or external imposition," stressing that it is "the exclusive right of the Syrians."

The Iranian Foreign Ministry indicated that it will closely monitor developments in Syria and the region, and will take appropriate positions based on the ongoing analysis of the performance of influential players in the Syrian political and security arena.

It also stressed respect for Syria's unity, governance, and territorial integrity, pointing to supporting Syria's stability and security through cooperation with all active parties in the region.

It explained that achieving stability "requires ending military conflicts quickly, preventing terrorist acts, and starting national dialogues with the participation of all components of society, with the aim of forming an inclusive government that represents all segments of the Syrian people."

The Iranian statement also stressed the importance of ensuring the security of Syrian citizens and nationals of other countries, and protecting holy and diplomatic sites in accordance with international laws.

Iran affirmed its continued support for the United Nations mechanisms, under Resolution 2254, to support the political process in Syria.

It also expressed its keenness to continue historical relations and friendship with Syria on the basis of common interests and commitment to international conventions.

Iranian Ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, said that "the Israeli Prime Minister is now expressing his happiness at the removal of one of his enemies," but he pointed out Benjamin Netanyahu's concern that the new forces "may pose an additional threat to him."

Akbari said in a live televised call with state television that "the Syrian Council of Ministers decided in its session last night to avoid any confrontations in Damascus and to hand over power and government peacefully, which was confirmed by the Syrian Prime Minister in a statement addressed to the people and the armed forces."

He added: "Bashar al-Assad's crime was his support for the axis of resistance, and today there are multiple currents inside Syria, some of which are extremist, even if they differ from (ISIS) in some beliefs."

Akbari pointed out that "the current situation in Syria has produced complex alignments between the northern and southern forces, which may turn the country into an arena for conflict between some Arab and Islamic countries and Turkey."

Akbari continued that "Netanyahu considers this a personal gain for him, but at the same time he is concerned that the stability and strength of the new forces in Syria may pose an additional threat to him."

Akbari explained that “these concerns stem from the lack of guarantees for the establishment of a strong and disciplined government in Syria, and from ethnic and ideological divisions, in addition to the possibility of Syria turning into an arena for conflict between regional countries.” He added: “These conditions may destabilize the central government and create cross-border threats.”

Pentagon official: Our presence in eastern Syria is to prevent the return of ISIS

A Pentagon official said that "the presence of US forces in eastern Syria is not related to other aspects of the conflict in the country," stressing "continuing to take the necessary measures to defend our forces and our partners" and to maintain this presence "which aims only to ensure the sustainability of the defeat of ISIS and prevent its resurgence." In an interview with Reuters today, he called on all parties in Syria to "protect civilians, especially minorities, respect international standards and work to reach a comprehensive political settlement," stressing the continuation of "close consultations with partners in the region affected by this crisis to support their security needs."

Statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry:

'We are following the dramatic events in Syria with extreme concern. As a result of negotiations between Bashar al-Assad and a number of participants in the armed conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, he decided to leave the presidential post and left the country, giving instructions to transfer power peacefully

Russia did not participate in these negotiations. At the same time, we appeal to all parties involved with a strong call to renounce the use of violence and resolve all governance issues by political means.

In this regard, the Russian Federation is in contact with all groups of the Syrian opposition. We call for respect for the opinions of all ethno-confessional forces of Syrian society, and support efforts to establish an inclusive political process based on the unanimously adopted UN Security Council Resolution 2254.

We expect that these approaches will be taken into account by the UN and all interested players, including in the context of the implementation of the initiative of the UN Secretary General's Special Representative for Syria, Georg Pedersen, to urgently organize inter-Syrian inclusive negotiations in Geneva.

At the same time, all necessary measures are being taken to ensure the safety of our citizens in Syria. Russian military bases in Syria are on high alert. There is currently no serious threat to their security.'

Statement by some Arab leaders meeting in Doha

Future of Syria based on post-Assad Syria: Kurds, Islamist, and everyone else

The bigger picture: how (in)stability in Syria could impact a region with uneasy borders

Friday, December 06, 2024

Syria and the "Arab Spring" 2.0

Friday, December 06, 2024 No comments

The popular uprising that broke in the Southwest Asian and North African, SWANA, in 2011, that transformed the region was frozen ten years later, especially in Syria and Yemen. Syria, after ten years of war, saw some calm since 2021, with the country still divided into three areas of control: one under "Sunni" rebels supported by Turkey and Qatar controlling the northwest, a second under Kurdish control in the northeast supported by the US, and the rest of Syria controlled by the Syrian government supported by Russia and Iran. On November 27 of this year, the calm was shattered when the Turkish backed armed groups regained major cities they lost in 2017-19. The crisis is unlikely to be resolved short of outside strong intervention, which is also unlikely, given that the outside actors are now busy dealing with new crises centers. So, for the foreseeable future, there are two possible paths forward. The various faction will continue to fight, but unlikely that one will prevail over the other two. Alternatively, a reshuffle of the alliances internally will consolidate some power leading to a stalemate, which will force all three sides to negotiate a deal that preserve the gains and interests of all ethnic, religious, sectarian, and ideological groups. That seem to be the realization of some world and regional powers, though not all think they have to give anything to dial down violence.

Erdogan: We hope that the Syrian "opposition" factions will continue their progress.. and the goal is Damascus

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he hopes that the progress of what he called the "opposition" in Syria will continue "without problems," considering that the next "target" after the armed factions took control of Idlib, Hama and Homs, "is Damascus."

Erdogan's words came in press statements, and he added: "We had invited Assad (Syrian President Bashar al-Assad)... and we told him: Let us determine the future of Syria together. Unfortunately, we did not receive a positive response on this issue."

Recently, Syria's permanent representative to the United Nations, Qusay al-Dahhak, confirmed that the terrorist attack on northern Syria could not have been carried out without a green light and a joint Turkish-Israeli operational order paved by repeated Israeli attacks on Syrian territory.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad also confirmed his country's insistence on eradicating terrorism, stressing that terrorists do not represent a people or institutions, but rather the apparatuses that support them.

Foreign Ministers of Iraq, Syria and Iran: Protecting Syria's Security is Necessary to Protect the Security of the Region

The foreign ministers of Iraq, Syria and Iran stressed on Friday that "threatening Syria's security poses a general danger to the stability of the entire region," stressing that "there is no choice but to coordinate, cooperate and consult diplomatically continuously, in order to eliminate all risks of escalation in the region."

In a joint statement following the meeting at the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, the ministers stressed "the seriousness of the events in Syria and their sensitivity to all parties in the region," warning of "the possibility of their expanding dimensions, which will pose a grave danger to the three countries and threaten the security of their peoples and the entire region."

The ministers also urged "the need to mobilize all Arab, regional and international efforts to reach peaceful solutions to the challenges facing the region in general, and Syria in particular."

In addition, the statement stressed "the agreement on the need to continue consultation and coordination between the three countries, follow up on these developments and prepare for any developments in the coming days," and respect for Syria's sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity.

They also condemned "terrorism in all its forms and manifestations classified by the Security Council," stressing "collective action to confront it." They also condemned the ongoing Israeli attacks on Syria, Gaza and Lebanon.

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Convergence of interests between Trump and Biden may result in an agreement to end the war in Gaza

Wednesday, November 27, 2024 No comments

Trump has been consistent with his demand that "finishes the job in Gaza quickly." In fact, he wants the war to end before he takes office so that he can focus on his domestic agenda which is expected to take most of his energy. Biden, who has been involved in a balancing act of supporting Israel and listening to young Americans most of whom see the war in Gaza as genocide, to enable his party to win elections is now free to focus on his personal legacy and achieve something in the Middle East. This convergence of interest may lead to an end of the war in Gaza, which will bring down the level of tension in the region.

With a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon in place, Biden is now looking to end the war in Gaza, which will reduce violence in the region. To this end, Biden will launch a new push on Wednesday to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and release hostages, after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a truce in Lebanon, his national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.

The truce that began early Wednesday in southern Lebanon means Hezbollah is no longer fighting in support of Hamas in Gaza. It will increase pressure on the Palestinian movement to accept a ceasefire and release the hostages, Sullivan told MSNBC.

Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just before the US- and French-brokered truce with Hezbollah was announced Tuesday and they agreed to try again to reach a deal on Gaza, Sullivan said.

“President Biden intends to begin this work today by engaging his envoys with Turkey, Qatar, Egypt and other actors in the region,” he said.

“We believe this is the beginning of an opportunity for a more stable Middle East where Israel’s security is assured and the interests of the United States are secure,” he added.

The agreement between Israel and Hezbollah was seen as an achievement for Biden as he prepares to leave the White House and hand over power to Donald Trump on January 20.

In parallel with announcing the agreement on Tuesday, Biden said that the United States, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar and Israel will again seek a ceasefire in Gaza, where Israel is still fighting a war against Hamas after an October 7, 2023 attack on its territory.

Biden confirmed that Washington will also push for a long-discussed agreement to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Media review: reactions to the ceasefire in Lebanon

Israeli media focused on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement that the Security Cabinet had agreed to a ceasefire with Lebanon under US mediation. While politicians opposed the agreement and considered it a surrender, analysts and journalists welcomed it, saying that there were political and military circumstances that pushed for signing it with all its negatives and loopholes, as they described them.

Kan 11 political affairs correspondent Suleiman Masouda said, "There are circumstances that are not only political, but also operational (military) that push for signing this agreement. We are entering the winter season, and the United States has not been supplying Israel with all the ammunition it requests for a while now, and there is a broad arms export ban."

Doron Kadosh, military affairs correspondent for Army Radio, described the agreement as "bad and with negatives and loopholes," but said that the army is demanding the agreement.

However, the Israeli correspondent explained that "there are immediate positives regarding ammunition and the issue of reserve soldiers who are collapsing under the pressure of military service and are no longer able to endure, in addition to the need to focus efforts on the Gaza Strip and recover the kidnapped soldiers."

For his part, Channel 13 military affairs analyst Alon Ben David explained that they in the security establishment acknowledge that the agreement with Lebanon "is not an ideal agreement, but from the beginning the army did not claim that it would eliminate Hezbollah's military power, because that would mean occupying all of Lebanon."

Former head of the Military Intelligence Division, Amos Malka, said that the war in Lebanon could end in three ways: the first is: "with the proposed agreement, the second with a security belt, and the third with a war until the last breath in an attempt - as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said - to eliminate Hezbollah."

He pointed out that the third possibility is not possible "because it will be a different war, and I do not think we have international support, and I do not think we have military plans for that."

Moshe Saada, a member of the Knesset for the Likud party, commented on the subject of the agreement with Lebanon by saying: "The situation is very complicated, and there are threats to ban the supply of weapons to us, and there are threats of UN resolutions against Israel."

As for the head of the "Israel Beiteinu" party, Avigdor Lieberman, he said, "This is a short ceasefire for 5 or 6 years, until the Fourth Lebanon War breaks out," noting that within 5 or 6 years "they (Hezbollah) will have 40,000 drones in Baalbek."

For his part, Yair Golan, leader of the opposition Democrats party and a former deputy chief of staff, described the agreement as “an interim agreement with clear justification, which we reached with a very exhausted army.”

"Hasty and irresponsible decision"... Anger in Israel over ceasefire agreement with Lebanon

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented the agreement in the context of what he said were “unprecedented achievements” made by Israel over the past year of war on seven fronts.

He said that Israel had set Hezbollah back decades and that it was no longer the same group it once was, according to the BBC.

Netanyahu indicated that the ceasefire would also allow Israel to “focus on the Iranian threat,” stressing that his country would retain full military freedom to confront any new threat from Hezbollah.

But Netanyahu’s political rivals, and even some of his allies, view the agreement as “de facto surrender.”

A poll conducted yesterday indicated that more than 80 percent of Netanyahu’s support base opposes the agreement, and that residents of northern Israel, who have been evacuated in large numbers due to Hezbollah strikes in the area, are also angry.

In Israel, the deal was deeply divided. One poll showed that 37 percent of Israelis support the ceasefire, 32 percent oppose it, and 31 percent do not know that there is an agreement at all.

Shelly, an English teacher in the town of Shlomi, said the ceasefire was “an irresponsible, hasty political decision.”

Rona Valenci, who was evacuated from Kibbutz Kfar Giladi in northern Israel on October 8 last year, said she wanted to return home and that a ceasefire was necessary, but the idea of Lebanese residents returning to villages near Kfar Giladi, such as the Lebanese village of Adaisseh, gave her “a sense of anxiety and fear”.

“The only thing I can hope for is that Hezbollah does not infiltrate such nearby villages and build a new network there,” she said.

“There is nothing real that can make me feel safe except for these villages to be completely wiped out, and for no one to be there.”

The BBC said it had spoken to many Israelis who believe Netanyahu should continue the war in Lebanon, and wonder why the prime minister, who has vowed to continue fighting in Gaza until “complete victory”, would sign a ceasefire in Lebanon?!

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir opposed the agreement, calling it a “historic mistake”.

“This is not a ceasefire, it is a return to the concept of quiet for quiet, and we have already seen where this leads,” Ben-Gvir wrote in a post on the X website explaining his opposition to the agreement. He predicted that “in the end we will need to return to Lebanon again.” In contrast, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich asserted that “this agreement may guarantee Israel’s security forever.”

Le Figaro: 4 reasons why Israel accepted a ceasefire in Lebanon

Le Figaro reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a ceasefire in Lebanon on Tuesday, saying that the duration of the agreement depends on what happens there, and asked about the military and diplomatic issues that could explain this agreement. To shed light on this, the French newspaper met with researcher David Khalfa, co-director of the North Africa and Middle East Observatory, and responsible for the "geopolitical meetings" of the Jean Jaurès Foundation, to decode this announcement.

Experts to Asharq Al-Awsat: Ceasefire agreement does not prevent Hezbollah from returning to what it was

So far, the contents of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah are still unclear. Does the agreement, which appears to have been divided between Hezbollah and Israel, mean that Hezbollah’s military hand will remain free in Lebanon, despite talk of transforming it into a political party?

Hezbollah will continue its policies

Asharq Al-Awsat posed questions to two American researchers regarding the expected agreement to be signed. Michael Rubin, a senior researcher at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, expressed his fear that “Hezbollah will continue to maintain its capabilities to continue its policies,” while David Daoud, a senior researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said that “although the language of the agreement seems stronger than the language of Resolution 1701,” it does not seem sufficient to stop Hezbollah’s activities in the future.

The draft ceasefire agreement includes a 60-day transitional period during which the Israeli army will withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army will deploy in areas near the border, and Hezbollah will move its heavy weapons north of the Litani River. The deal includes a US-led oversight committee to monitor implementation and address violations.

The ICC and Hezbollah’s Money

“It is true that there has been significant progress, but it is unfortunate that the ICC’s accusations against Netanyahu have shifted these matters in another direction, forcing some mediators in the region to halt direct visits to Jerusalem and prevent Netanyahu from traveling to third countries,” said Michael Rubin. “My greatest concern about Hezbollah is that its financial and criminal network in Africa and South America remains intact. If Hezbollah turns its guns on the rest of the Lebanese, it will have the financial means to support itself,” Rubin added.

According to the agreement, the United States agreed to give Israel a letter of guarantees that includes support for Israeli military action against imminent threats from Lebanese territory, and to take measures to disrupt operations such as the re-establishment of Hezbollah’s military presence near the border, or the smuggling of heavy weapons. Under the agreement, Israel will take such action after consulting with the United States, if the Lebanese army does not deal with the threat.

Israel’s approval is incomprehensible

David Daoud says: “Although the language of the agreement seems stronger than the language of international resolution (1701), the Netanyahu government’s approval of this type of agreement cannot be explained, as long as international law gives the right to any country that is attacked, or sees that there is an imminent attack on it, to respond to it.” He pointed out that “Hezbollah’s breach of the agreement without causing a new imminent war is possible, as it can, for example, build a weapons factory that does not, according to the text of the agreement, constitute a direct threat to Israel.”

“The agreement guarantees Hezbollah’s continued dominance and control over Lebanon in light of the Lebanese people’s inability to confront it, and the Lebanese army’s inability to enter into a war with it, and cause a new civil war,” he said. Daoud believes that “the new reality resulting from the International Criminal Court’s decision against Netanyahu may complicate matters, and the internal Israeli situation may put him in a predicament, which may expose the agreement to collapse... Despite that, we are facing a 60-day agreement, which may give the new Trump administration (credibility) that it has entered an era free of wars in the Middle East, but nothing guarantees that it will not explode again in the coming years if its causes are not (removed).”

Did Israel's war in Lebanon achieve its goals?

Israeli leaders argued that the war was necessary to remove the threat of Hezbollah so that Israelis can return to their settlements in the north. The ceasefire agreement does not include any stipulation that could realize those aims. Hezbollah will not disarm, and at best will be expected to limit its presence south of Litani river. However, given that Hezbollah's rockets reached south of Tell Aviv just days before the ceasefire, 30 miles north of the border will not make any difference. This conclusion is clear in the mind of most Israelis, especially those of the north who are yet to start returning, and they may not return until after the 60 days had passed to see if this 60-day agreement is going to be made permanent. making the agreement permanent may depend on another ceasefire in Gaza; without an end to the war in Gaza, resumption of violence is a possibility and that will prevent many Israelis from returning to the north. Military solutions rarely produce permanent solutions unless they are followed by a political solution. Israeli leaders have no interest in settling the conflict with the Palestinians in a way that will make wars unnecessary.