Media review: How did Israel track and assassinate leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah?

There are many theories now being floated by both government sources and media outlets trying to explain the surgical strikes Israel undertook to assassinate leaders of Hamas and other armed factions. Here is a review of what is now circulating in news outlets and on social media platforms.

Iranian agency: Haniyeh was assassinated by a shell that hit his residence

The Iranian Fars News Agency confirmed that the assassination of the head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), Ismail Haniyeh, was carried out by a shell that hit his residence, destroying part of its roof and windows. 

It added that investigations confirmed that Israel planned and carried out the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.

The New York Times reported that American officials secretly admitted that Israel assassinated Haniyeh in the Iranian capital, Tehran, yesterday, Wednesday.

The newspaper explained that the American officials’ statement came despite the fact that Israel did not announce its adoption of the assassination and refused to comment on the incident publicly.

In contrast, Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari claimed on Thursday that the army did not launch any airstrikes on Iran or any other country in the Middle East on Wednesday.

In response to a question about the assassination of Haniyeh, he said in a press conference, “We did not attack Iran from the air.”

He added, “We killed (the prominent Hezbollah leader) Fouad Shukr in Lebanon, but there was no other Israeli airstrike in the entire Middle East after that.”

However, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards said in a statement that technical investigations show that Haniyeh's assassination was carried out with a short-range projectile with a warhead weighing 7.5 kilograms, fired from outside the place where the martyr Haniyeh lived.

Was a third country involved in the assassination? 

Initially, an Iranian source revealed that the martyrdom of the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran "was carried out by a missile launched from one country to another, not from within Iran."

For his part, the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Nasser Kanaani, confirmed that the relevant Iranian authorities are continuing "the necessary investigations to determine the dimensions and details of this incident."

Kanaani said: "There is no doubt that the pure blood of this mujahid, who spent his life in jihad and honorable struggle against the usurping Zionist entity, and on the path to liberating holy Jerusalem and liberating the Palestinian people, will not go in vain."

He added: "Haniyeh's martyrdom in Tehran will strengthen the deep and solid relations between Iran, Palestine and the resistance even more."

Western Sources' explanations

In parallel, the New York Times and the American website Axios published another story, confirming Israel's responsibility for Haniyeh's assassination, but claiming that the assassination was carried out by an explosive device planted by Mossad agents in his room, and detonated remotely.

Public Data Analasys based explanation

The competing explanations open the door to speculations given the precision and the timing of the assassination. An alternative theory based on available information that is in the public domain suggest that Israel is using the phones of associates to track the persons Israel has placed on its assassination list. Such analysis suggests that, in its recent assassinations, Israel's security forces targeted the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah by tracking the phone numbers of their companions. Because the high value targets who know that they are on the assassination list are not allowed to use mobile phones, Israel was unable to locate and assassinate them in the past. 

However, a security lapse happened after Israel assassinated the children and grandchildren of Ismail Haniyeh few months ago. Hamas sources broadcasted a video of the moment when Haniyeh received the news of the murder of his family members. In the clip, it showed him receiving the call on someone else's phone and listening to it. 

As the primary leader leading the investigation, Haniyeh used his aid's phone to keep in touch with the Qatari leaders. That number was likely used to track Haniyeh's movement.

The same strategy was replicated elsewhere, Israel stopped trying to locate the persons it wanted to assassinate directly, and focused on tracking their aids who are often in close contact with the targeted person.

This theory explains the precision and speed with which Israel carried out the recent assassination.

 Theories that suggest the use of human intelligence and agents presence on the ground cannot explain the speed and precision. The above theory is bolstered by the unusual step taken by the Israeli government limiting the use of phones by government officials, as reported in Israeli media.

Israel distributes special phones to ministers

The Israeli government has decided to distribute satellite phones to ministers and senior officials. The move aims to limit security threats and to ensure that ministers stay connected in the case of damage sustained by the regular communications network during an attack from Iran and Hezbollah. The latter explanation was opined by the media. The government did not comment.

The Maariv newspaper said: "The government is taking an unusual step, for fear that the communications networks will be damaged in an Iranian attack."