Media Review: What will Hezbollah and Iran do and what might happen in the Middle East after Beirut Attacks?

Media Review: What will Hezbollah and Iran do and what might happen in the Middle East after Beirut Attacks?

    Sunday, September 29, 2024   No comments

In about a week, Israel turned electronic devices into weapons, assassinated military and political leaders, and launched arial bombings in Lebanon injuring thousands and killing hundreds, including the leader of the Lebanese group Hezbollah. Media reports about these unprecedented events vary. Governments’ reactions also vary. A review of how the global media and governments reacted will provide some context. The media review is prefaced by some thoughts about what might happen next, given the current events and given the expressed reactions as reported by media outlets. 

Israeli leaders claim that what they did will usher in a new Middle East. Israel has crossed so many red lines to achieve these stated goals: Destroy Hamas, Hezbollah, and all other affiliated groups. But they don't seem to have an answer for what their plan, long term, is for Palestinians. Instead they seem to focus on Iran. That is where it becomes clear that the current military success is just tactical success and it is not hard to achieve given the superior firepower and military technology the state of Israel enjoys, not to mention the unlimited supply of weapons the US government has provided thus far. However, strategically, this could be seen in the very near future as the moment when Israel forced the Iranian leaders to make a serious strategic shift. Here is why.

Iranian leaders have recently described Israeli leaders' actions as a form of "insanity", for crossing all legal, diplomatic, and ethical boundaries. Given that Israel is believed to have a stockpile of nuclear weapons, in the view of Iranian leaders, such "insane" leaders will not hesitate in using nuclear weapons against Iran. After all, some members of the Israeli government have publicly threatened to use nuclear weapons in Gaza.  If Iran did not take that threat seriously in the past, the recent actions must have changed their nuclear posture. 

Recalling that US assessed in June of this year that Iran was a week to a week and a half from breakout point in developing nuclear weapons capability, if Iran does not respond in the way it responded in the past, attacking with rockets and drones, the US and Israel should worry. Their non-response could mean a muted strategic response, whereby the religious authorities rescind earlier directives not to develop nuclear weapons and issue a new one that would speedup the development of nuclear weapons capabilities, at least for deterrence purposes. Such development would place the world on a path towards catastrophe, not just because of the potential for nuclear incident in the Middle East, but globally given that Russia's president just warned that Russia will change its nuclear posture if Western governments-supplied weapons to Ukraine are used to strike deep inside Russia.

Based on some Iranian media coverage, turning communication devices into discriminate weapons and killing religious figures is a form of nuclear strike without using a nuclear weapon. Some Iranians are now convinced that Israel will use nuclear weapons against their country. This is what will create a strategic shift in the region, not wining a war against non-state actors In Gaza and Lebanon without a plan for a political settlement with the Palestinians.

Türkiye: Erdogan denounces Congress' reception of 'Hitler of our time'

Türkiye: Erdogan denounces Congress' reception of 'Hitler of our time'

    Friday, July 26, 2024   No comments

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced the US Congress' hosting of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Erdogan said on Friday during an introductory meeting on the high-tech promotion program at the Ataturk Cultural Center in Istanbul, "Imagine that Congress applauds a murderer who has killed nearly 40,000 children, women and elderly people," in full view of the entire world.

He described Netanyahu as "a murderer and perpetrator of genocide against the Palestinian people," in the war that the occupation has been waging for nearly 10 months on the Gaza Strip.

Erdogan added that those who "have always taught the world lessons in democracy and human rights" "did not feel an ounce of shame while celebrating the Hitler of our time."

On Wednesday, Netanyahu delivered a speech before Congress amidst mass demonstrations against his visit to Washington and denouncing the Israeli war of extermination against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

Netanyahu focused on attacking the demonstrations against him and the war, claiming that "Iran is funding the demonstrators outside Congress now" and that they also want to destroy the United States" during a large part of his speech.

 

Media Review: The key to calm with Lebanon is in Gaza, and Israeli plans to divide the Strip

Media Review: The key to calm with Lebanon is in Gaza, and Israeli plans to divide the Strip

    Tuesday, July 02, 2024   No comments

International newspapers and news websites have highlighted Israeli plans to divide the Gaza Strip into separate security zones, the repercussions of an open war between Israel and Lebanon if it breaks out, and the way to calm down on that front.

The American newspaper "Wall Street Journal" spoke about Israeli plans to divide the Gaza Strip into islands and separate security zones in which unsuspecting Palestinians live, allowing the Israeli army to move freely.

The newspaper indicated that retired Israeli officers, academics, and politicians participated in formulating these ideas, and pointed out that these plans reveal harsh facts, including that the Palestinians may remain besieged indefinitely in narrow areas of the Strip.

In turn, the French newspaper "Le Monde" discussed Britain's efforts to prevent the International Criminal Court from issuing arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Galant.

The newspaper wondered about London's intentions in doing so and whether it was a maneuver to buy time, noting that Attorney General Karim Khan's request to issue an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Galant was not welcomed in Western capitals, especially Washington.

While the National Interest website believes that all the scenarios proposed between the Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel indicate that war has become inevitable, the website quoted writer Alexandre Langlois warning that if war breaks out, it will drag the United States into it and destroy the entire Middle East.

Meanwhile, the Swiss newspaper Le Temps editorial said that the key to calm in Lebanon lies in Gaza, explaining that the war between Israel and Hezbollah seems imminent, but the solution to avoid it is also clear, which is to put an end to the war in Gaza.

The newspaper added that the Americans know this and are trying to bypass Netanyahu in favor of his political rival Yoav Galant, and the Europeans are also aware of this but are content with warning their citizens of the dangers, according to the newspaper.

A report by the Washington Post also addressed the conditions of the Palestinians in Gaza who were able to flee to Egypt, and said that they survived the war but are unable to build a future for themselves, adding that most of them live in a state of confusion without a clear legal status and without hope of reaching another destination.

Regarding the situation in the West Bank, an investigation published by the New York Times revealed the great panic and terror that Palestinians are subjected to at the hands of settlers, noting that this violence, unlike what is prevalent in many parts of the world, is supported by the state and carried out with American weapons.

Media review: NYT's Friedman, "Biden must push Israel to accept Hamas' demands"

Media review: NYT's Friedman, "Biden must push Israel to accept Hamas' demands"

    Tuesday, June 18, 2024   No comments

American journalist Thomas Friedman confirmed that the Israeli occupation entity is currently living in "existential danger", at a time when the axis of resistance has managed to "tighten its grip on Israel", while "the latter has no military or diplomatic response".

In an opinion piece he wrote in the American newspaper "The New York Times", Friedman warned of the danger of war with Hezbollah on "Israel", noting that the Islamic resistance in Lebanon is armed with precision missiles capable of destroying large areas of the Israeli infrastructure.

Friedman explained that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "leads Israel, while he must remain in power, in order to avoid the possibility of being sent to prison on corruption charges", at a time when the occupation faces the possibility of war breaking out on several fronts.

According to him, Netanyahu, in order to remain in power and avoid prison, "sold his soul in order to form a government with right-wing extremists, who insist that Israel must fight in Gaza until Hamas is eliminated, in order to achieve complete victory", as they claim.

Now, the Israeli "war cabinet" has collapsed, due to "Netanyahu's lack of a plan to end the war and safely withdraw from the Gaza Strip," while "extremists in his government coalition are looking forward to their next steps to reach power," according to Friedman.

While the American journalist pointed out that these extremist ministers "caused a lot of damage," he warned that "no friend (of Israel) should participate in this circus," as he described it.

In this context, Friedman stressed the need to form a new government in "Israel" and remove Netanyahu from the position of Prime Minister, through new elections.

The American journalist also expressed his support for what former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak confirmed in the American newspaper Haaretz last Thursday, which is that "Israel is facing the most serious crisis in its history."

In light of this, Friedman warned that "every American should be concerned about this matter," explaining that it represents "a recipe for dragging the United States into a war in the Middle East to help Israel."

In this context, Friedman believed that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken "should not make another trip to the Middle East without the agreement of both Israel and Hamas on a clear plan to end the war."

While acknowledging the need for US President Joe Biden to push the occupation to submit to Hamas's conditions to stop the war, Friedman stressed that "Biden must tell Israel that it must accept Hamas's main demand: to end the war completely now, and withdraw from the Gaza Strip, in exchange for the return of all Israeli prisoners."

Friedman believed that ending the war in the Gaza Strip would "lead to reaching an agreement mediated by the US with Hezbollah, in order to calm the war on the northern border."

He added that Netanyahu's idea that some Palestinians, who do not belong to Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, will run the place for "Israel" is "a fantasy." In light of all this, the American journalist stressed that "Israel must leave Gaza," while the head of the Hamas movement in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, continues to run the Strip.

Friedman argued his point of view without even mentioning the human cost of this reckless war that civilians in Gaza have endured for more than 250 days and that may last for months more.

Hezbollah displays extremely important scenes of military sites and sensitive facilities in Isael: "This is what the hoopoe brought back"

Hezbollah displays extremely important scenes of military sites and sensitive facilities in Isael: "This is what the hoopoe brought back"

    Tuesday, June 18, 2024   No comments

Multiple media outlets, including Aljazeera, reported about the release of drone footage captured by Hezbollah showing many sensitive sites with extreme details. This display of capability might be what prompted France and the US to start a mission to dial down the tension at the border between Hezbollah and Israel.

Regional media outlets reported that the war media of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon - Hezbollah, published a very important video clip from the occupied Palestinian territories, under the title "This is what the hoopoe brought back." In a long clip that exceeded 9 and a half minutes, Hezbollah's war media showed scenes of an aerial reconnaissance of areas in northern Kiryat Shmona, Nahariya, Safed Karmiel, Afula, and all the way to Haifa and its port. The scenes included intelligence information about "Israeli" sites inside occupied Palestine, and the scenes showed the drone's arrival at the port of Haifa and what it monitored of sensitive sites in Haifa from the port to the oil refineries and military factories, in addition to the locations of the warships, and important economic sites in the port of Haifa.

Among the sites shown in the scenes is the Rafael Military Industries Complex, a military industrial zone affiliated with Rafael, which includes a large number of factories, warehouses and testing fields, where components of effective air defense systems are manufactured and assembled, especially the Iron Dome and David's Sling.

 The Rafael Military Industries Complex area is considered extremely sensitive and secret, and its total area is 6.5 square kilometers and it is 24 kilometers from the Lebanese border.

 In addition to a complete and high-resolution view of the complex, the scenes clearly showed: - Several Iron Dome platforms, - A rocket engine test tunnel, - Rocket engine warehouses, - Air defense missile warehouses, - Missile component manufacturing facilities, - David's Sling platforms, - Control and guidance systems factories, - The company's administrative buildings, in addition to missile testing radars.

The scenes also showed a real-time, high-resolution tour of the entire Haifa port and the surrounding area.  The scenes accurately showed: -Ship maintenance hangars, -Computing Unit 3800 building of the Haifa Naval Base, -The main warehouse and supply department in the Haifa base basin, -The Deep Sea Missions Unit (Yeltam) building, -Buildings belonging to the submarine unit, -The submarine dock and berth, -The submarine unit command building (Shayetet 7).

 The resistance's war media also monitored warships in the Haifa port, including: -The logistical support ship "Batiyam", -The "Sa'ar 4.5" ships, -The "Devora" boats, -The "Sa'ar 6" ships, -The "Sa'ar 5" ships, -The "Sa'ar 4.5".

 In addition to the "Carmel Pier", -Container ships and work in the port, -The "Mizrahi Pier".

 The party said that the video clip was filmed by its drones that were able to "bypass the enemy's air defense systems and return without being detected by its means."

 The scenes in the video included sensitive Israeli sites, including military bases, weapons and missile stores, seaports, and airports in the city of Haifa, located 27 kilometers from the Lebanese border.

 Before the full video was published, Hezbollah's war media published a promotional clip for the video under the title "Wait for what the hoopoe returned with." The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon attached the clip with the phrase “the first episode,” indicating more scenes that it will show later, confirming that the drone had bypassed the Israeli occupation’s air defenses and returned without being detected.

 Major General Wassef Erekat said that Israel's description of the video as very dangerous confirms the strength of the resistance and its ability to respond in kind and its superiority in the field of accuracy and information.

 Israeli media commented on the Hezbollah video saying, "The new documents are the most disturbing since the beginning of the war, and Haifa can be seen in them."

 The military correspondent for Israel's Channel 14 said that Hezbollah "publishes unusual documents from deep within 'Israeli territory' and shows Israeli targets and even from the port of Haifa and the naval base."

 He added, "The capabilities demonstrated by the Hezbollah organization have left a wide gap between the military and security."

 Earlier, Amos Hochstein, the US President's advisor, warned Israel of a possible Iranian attack that would be difficult to repel due to the ongoing confrontation between Tel Aviv and the Lebanese Hezbollah. This came during his meetings with Israeli officials yesterday, Monday, according to what the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported today, Tuesday.

 On Monday, Hochstein visited Tel Aviv as part of efforts to calm the confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah on the border with Lebanon after they escalated significantly last week.

 The American envoy met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog, opposition leader Yair Lapid, and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant.

 The Israeli newspaper said that Hochstein warned of the possibility that the war with Hezbollah would lead to a large-scale Iranian attack on Israel that would be difficult for Israeli defense systems to repel, accompanied by the possibility of large-scale fire by Hezbollah in Lebanon.

 It pointed out that Hochstein's visit coincided with Hezbollah's halting of its attacks on Israel on the occasion of Eid al-Adha (which began on Sunday).

 It said, "The American envoy hopes to exploit the period of cessation in the exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel to try to set a framework for a future ceasefire agreement between the two sides."

 Before going to Israel, the American envoy met Lebanese leaders and they told him that there is nothing to discuss about the situation at the border without stopping the war in Gaza. US envoy Amos Hochstein confirmed from Beirut that the situation on the Lebanese border with occupied Palestine is extremely dangerous, speaking about continuing efforts to stop the escalation to avoid expanding the war.

 Hochstein said, after meeting with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, that "the dispute on both sides of the Blue Line has continued for a long time, and it is in everyone's interest to stop it," adding that "everyone is concerned with resolving the matter diplomatically."

 He described the situation in Lebanon as "very delicate," considering that "the dispute has gone too far."

 He added that the ceasefire in Gaza ends the war and "opens the way for diplomatic solutions, and this may also put an end to the conflict along the Blue Line," stressing that the calm on the border will allow the return of residents to southern Lebanon.

 Hochstein explained that the talks he held today in Beirut, and yesterday in the occupying entity, "aimed to avoid further escalation and expansion of the war."

 The US envoy discussed with Berri, in the presence of the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Lisa Johnson, the situation in southern Lebanon, noting that there is an initiative to cease fire in Gaza that includes the release of prisoners. Hochstein said about this initiative that it "has received approval from Israel, Egypt and Qatar, and Hamas must say if it agrees to the initiative," noting that the ceasefire will also extend to Lebanon.

 Following his meeting with the caretaker Prime Minister of Lebanon, Najib Mikati, Hochstein said: "We are going through dangerous times and critical moments, and we are working together to try to find ways to reach a place where we prevent further escalation."

 He described the discussions that took place with Mikati, in the presence of Johnson, as "good."

 For his part, Mikati stressed that Beirut is not seeking escalation, announcing that what is required is to stop the Israeli aggression and "return to calm on the southern border."

 He said, "We are continuing to seek to stop the escalation, restore security and stability, and stop the ongoing violations of Lebanese sovereignty, and the systematic killing and destruction committed by Israel."

 Mikati stressed that "the ongoing Israeli threats to Lebanon will not deter us from continuing to seek to establish calm," noting that this is a priority for Lebanon and its "friends."

 In addition, the Commander of the Lebanese Army, General Joseph Aoun, received Hochstein in his office in Yarzeh in the presence of Johnson, and the general situation in the country and the region and developments on the southern border were discussed.

 Hochstein pointed out that he came to Beirut at the request of US President Joe Biden.

Side Effects of Iran's Retaliatory Strike on Israel: Iraqi Kurdistan now wants security talks in Iran after years of tensions

Side Effects of Iran's Retaliatory Strike on Israel: Iraqi Kurdistan now wants security talks in Iran after years of tensions

    Monday, May 06, 2024   No comments

It may escape many, but the connection between Iran’s strike on Israel in retaliation for the latter’s attack on its diplomatic building in Syria is forcing many of Iran’s neighbors to pay attention to Iran. 

First, there were the media reports that revealed that UAE asked the US not to use any of its assets in the country to attack Iran or its assets in the region. US government moved military equipment to Qatar, which will be under renewed pressure also to make similar demand given its proximity to Iran. UAE demand from US make it a neutral party in any military confrontation in the region which would devastate its economic standing and the infrastructure it has built for decades. Simply put: UAE, and Dubai in particular, have built too many glass buildings for it to through stones at its neighbors or to allow others to throw stones from inside UAE.

Now, comes Iraqi Kurdistan: for years, they benefited from the shield provided to them by the US military and ignored Iran’s requests to reign in armed factions operating from its territories. Iran has struck Kurdish regions in the past; but now that Iran struck US bases in Iraq four years ago and Israel targets weeks ago, Kurdish leaders are reaching out to Iranian leaders to seek security arrangements.

The President of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region (IKR), Nechirvan Barzani, visited Tehran on 6 May for security talks with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi. 

During the meeting, Raisi stressed the necessity of disarming groups hostile to the Islamic Revolution and not having them present on Iraqi territory.

Raisi stated, “We expect the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government [KRG] to categorically prevent any exploitation of the region’s soil against Iran by the Israeli enemy and anti-revolutionary elements.”

The relationship between Tehran and Erbil has been strained by Kurdish militant groups that use the KRG as a base to attack Iran, and Iranian claims that Israel’s intelligence service, the Mossad, maintains covert bases in the Kurdish region.

Iran has struck Kurdish militant training camps and Mossad headquarters, including in Erbil, with missiles in the past year.

The Iranian president explained that “Iran has no objection to expanding cooperation with the Iraqi Kurdistan region on security grounds,” adding, “We consider the long border between the two sides to be a valuable opportunity to improve the level of relations, but security is the basis for any cooperation or development in relations.”

Barzani expressed his commitment to the entire security agreement between Iran and Iraq.

He stated that “respect for our relations with Iran and its support for us in difficult times is a red line that we will not cross.”

Dilshad Shahab, the spokesperson for the Kurdistan Region presidency, said that President Barzani wants to reaffirm to Erbil’s allies that the IKR will never become a source of threat to the interests of its neighbors, especially Iran.

“It is no secret that there has been a kind of coldness in these [Erbil–Tehran] relations in recent times; we want to be assured that the common interests of both sides outweigh the obstacles that may arise,” Shahab told Rudaw’s Sangar Abdulrahman.

During his visit to Tehran, Barzani met with a number of Iranian officials, led by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ali Khamenei.