In about a week, Israel turned electronic devices into weapons,
assassinated military and political leaders, and launched arial bombings in
Lebanon injuring thousands and killing hundreds, including the leader of the
Lebanese group Hezbollah. Media reports about these unprecedented events
vary. Governments’ reactions also vary. A review of how the global media and
governments reacted will provide some context. The media review is prefaced by some thoughts about what might happen next, given the current events and given the expressed reactions as reported by media outlets.
Israeli leaders claim that what they did will usher in a new Middle East. Israel has crossed so many red lines to achieve these stated goals: Destroy Hamas, Hezbollah, and all other affiliated groups. But they don't seem to have an answer for what their plan, long term, is for Palestinians. Instead they seem to focus on Iran. That is where it becomes clear that the current military success is just tactical success and it is not hard to achieve given the superior firepower and military technology the state of Israel enjoys, not to mention the unlimited supply of weapons the US government has provided thus far. However, strategically, this could be seen in the very near future as the moment when Israel forced the Iranian leaders to make a serious strategic shift. Here is why.
Iranian leaders have recently described Israeli leaders' actions as a form of "insanity", for crossing all legal, diplomatic, and ethical boundaries. Given that Israel is believed to have a stockpile of nuclear weapons, in the view of Iranian leaders, such "insane" leaders will not hesitate in using nuclear weapons against Iran. After all, some members of the Israeli government have publicly threatened to use nuclear weapons in Gaza. If Iran did not take that threat seriously in the past, the recent actions must have changed their nuclear posture.
Recalling that US assessed in June of this year that Iran was a week to a week and a half from breakout point in developing nuclear weapons capability, if Iran does not respond in the way it responded in the past, attacking with rockets and drones, the US and Israel should worry. Their non-response could mean a muted strategic response, whereby the religious authorities rescind earlier directives not to develop nuclear weapons and issue a new one that would speedup the development of nuclear weapons capabilities, at least for deterrence purposes. Such development would place the world on a path towards catastrophe, not just because of the potential for nuclear incident in the Middle East, but globally given that Russia's president just warned that Russia will change its nuclear posture if Western governments-supplied weapons to Ukraine are used to strike deep inside Russia.
Based on some Iranian media coverage, turning
communication devices into discriminate weapons and killing religious figures
is a form of nuclear strike without using a nuclear weapon. Some Iranians are
now convinced that Israel will use nuclear weapons against their country. This
is what will create a strategic shift in the region, not wining a war against
non-state actors In Gaza and Lebanon without a plan for a political settlement with the Palestinians.
Media Coverage
Western media outlets have different assessment of the outcome of the recent escalation of violence in the Middle East. CNN argued that Nasrallah's assassination will not make Hezbollah weak, but predicted that a response is all but assured, although without saying in what form and at what time.
Answering the question, what will Hezbollah and Iran do?, CNN argued that in the wake of Nasrallah’s assassination and the attack on the pagers and radios, Hezbollah’s remaining leaders are likely to assess how to meet, communicate and respond, and analysts say the setbacks Hezbollah has faced are unlikely to weaken it.
The outlet added that the group still retains skilled commanders, as well as many of its most potent assets, including precision-guided missiles and long-range rockets that could inflict significant damage on Israeli military and civilian infrastructure.
Hezbollah has yet to launch a major retaliation in the wake of Nasrallah’s assassination, but recent developments raise the possibility of a shift.
Hezbollah will almost certainly respond, according to Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official who specializes in the region, who told CNN that “it will likely be a major response.”
Another key question is how much Iran is willing to get involved. In a social media post, the Iranian embassy in Lebanon called Nasrallah’s assassination a “serious, game-changing escalation” and said the perpetrator “will be punished and punished appropriately.”
The space for diplomacy appears limited, especially as months of work on a ceasefire in the Gaza war have seen little progress in negotiations.
....
The Guardian, on the other hand, contended that Nasrallah's assassination puts Tehran in front of a fateful choice and humiliates Washington.
The Guardian newspaper said that the Israeli airstrike on the Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon will have far-reaching implications for Tehran and Washington, and has brought the Middle East to the brink of the abyss, especially after the confirmation of the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
The newspaper explained - in a report by Patrick Wintour - that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was prescient when he said that the coming days will determine the future course of the Middle East, although he was hoping at the time to convince Hezbollah and Israel to step back from the brink of the abyss.
As for Tehran, it faces the fateful choice that it has always sought to avoid, and which its new reformist leadership did not want to submit to. Its credibility is at risk if it is content with an angry condemnation of Israel’s destruction of a pivotal piece of the resistance it has painstakingly built, or by calling on others to take unspecified measures.
However, the author believes that pragmatism may push Iran to advise Hezbollah to bear the losses and accept a ceasefire, even if it does not achieve its declared goal of a ceasefire in Gaza. However, if it launches a direct military attack, it must know that it will be fighting a battle with an army that has superior combat, technological and intelligence capabilities, especially since Israeli intelligence has penetrated deep into Hezbollah and may have done the same in Tehran, according to Wintour.
....
On the other hand, supporters of Israel in right-wing think tanks close to Israel’s ruling Likud party were elated, with Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, saying that “in just nine days, Israel eliminated Hezbollah’s leadership, culminating in the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.”
It is worth noting that Washington supports Israel’s demands to remove Hezbollah from the border so that some 60,000 evacuees can return to northern Israel, and American officials have sought to help broker an arrangement to defuse tensions and allow the return of displaced people in both Israel and Lebanon, but these efforts have failed on the rock of Nasrallah’s assassination.
It appears that American officials still expect to help defend Israel in the event of a large-scale conflict, and Iran’s military intervention against Israel in retaliation for its assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in Tehran two months ago, and its assassination of Nasrallah on Friday in Beirut.
“Nasrallah’s assassination could be a game-changer if the White House and the Netanyahu government work together to create pressure and leverage on the Iranian regime, its axis, and its proxies,” said Jonathan Schanzer, vice president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “If the United States and Israel do not work together to harness this massive shift in momentum, it will be a missed opportunity.”
....
In China, officials stated that China firmly supports Lebanon in safeguarding its security and national dignity and warned against things spiraling out of control.
The English Language GT wrote:
China firmly supports Lebanon in safeguarding its sovereignty, security and national dignity, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib in New York on Monday. According to media reports, Israeli strikes Monday on Lebanon killed at least 558 people as of press time, in what is considered the deadliest barrage since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.
Thousands of families have also fled their homes as the Israeli military announced it had hit 1,600 Hezbollah targets in a campaign to destroy infrastructure that the armed group had built up since the 2006 war, BBC reported.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah launched over 200 rockets into northern Israel, according to Israeli military sources.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, told the Lebanese Foreign Minister in New York that with a long-lasting traditional friendship with Lebanon, China has been closely following the latest developments in the region, especially the recent explosions of communication devices across Lebanon, and is firmly opposed to indiscriminate attacks against civilians, he said.
Force does not equate to rightness and violence against violence will not solve the problems in the Middle East, Wang said, adding that China strongly condemns any action that violates the basic norms governing international relations.
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