In the annals of modern geopolitical irony, few developments are as stark as the current trajectory of the US war on Iran. Initially championed by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu with overt calls for the Iranian people to overthrow their government, the conflict has undergone a profound and dangerous shift. The stated objective is no longer regime change in Tehran, but rather the forced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities.
To achieve this, the United States is launching continuous attacks from military bases embedded within the territories of Jordan and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. In doing so, Washington has inadvertently placed its most vulnerable allies—non-representative monarchies with long-standing grievances among their own populations—directly in the crosshairs. Now, Iran is skillfully exploiting this dynamic, driving a wedge between these regimes and their people, and raising the very real specter of regime change in Amman, Kuwait City, and beyond.
The Sovereignty Paradox: Iran’s "Hearts and Minds" Offensive
Tehran’s strategy has evolved beyond mere military retaliation; it has launched a sophisticated psychological and information warfare campaign directed squarely at the Arab street. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued direct, impassioned statements to the peoples of Jordan and Kuwait, reframing Iran’s strikes not as violations of national sovereignty, but as legitimate acts of self-defense against an occupying force.
In a recent statement addressed to the "honorable and noble people of Jordan," the IRGC justified its lightning strikes against US bases on Jordanian soil—which reportedly destroyed a THAAD radar, a Patriot air defense system, and set ablaze fuel storage and helicopter maintenance hangars. The message was unequivocal:
"What is a US military base inside another country? It is a place where Americans, and anyone they choose, can enter and leave without the oversight of your border authorities... Order there is enforced by the US military police, not yours. Crimes committed there are judged by American judges, not your own... Therefore, it is the United States, not us, that has violated your territorial integrity and sovereignty."
To anchor this argument in raw emotional resonance, the IRGC invoked the tragedy of Minab, stating:
"Yesterday, the grieving people of Minab buried the remaining body parts of their schoolchildren... 168 students who were martyred on the first day of this war in an attack carried out by the child-killing US military. It is our legal, religious, and rational right to target the aggressor against our country and the killer of our children wherever it launches its attacks from."
A parallel message was delivered to Kuwait, where the IRGC claimed drone strikes on a large US military equipment depot, a Patriot system, and an MQ-9 drone hangar at Ali al-Salem Air Base, alongside troop housing at Camp Udairi (Camp Buehring). Once again, the narrative was carefully calibrated: Iran respects Kuwait’s sovereignty; it is the unchecked US military footprint that violates it.
The Jordanian Powder Keg
Nowhere is this dynamic more volatile than in Jordan. The Hashemite Kingdom’s government has long been perceived by its populace as helpless to alter US policy, particularly regarding Israeli violence against Palestinians. This impotence has severely weakened the regime’s legitimacy, a fact exacerbated by the demographic reality that roughly 65% of Jordan’s population has Palestinian heritage or direct connections to Palestine.
The disconnect between the Jordanian street and the palace was laid bare following recent Israeli provocations. When Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, alongside Knesset members and settlers, stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque under Israeli police protection, the Jordanian Foreign Ministry issued a stern condemnation, calling it a "blatant violation" of the mosque’s historic and legal status. For the average Jordanian, verbal condemnations ring hollow while US military assets in their country continue to facilitate a broader regional war, and while their government remains unable to protect Islamic holy sites from desecration. By hosting US forces that Iran now actively targets, the Jordanian monarchy is increasingly viewed not as a protector of national sovereignty, but as a complicit facilitator of foreign aggression.
The GCC Dilemma
The GCC states face a similar, if not more complex, vulnerability. Countries like Kuwait and Bahrain host significant Shia communities and populations in the GCC generally are deeply, historically sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. The presence of US bases has always been a quiet source of domestic tension, managed through a combination of economic patronage and political suppression.
Iran’s messaging directly punctures this fragile social contract. By framing US bases as extraterritorial colonies where "American law prevails, not your national law," Tehran is handing local opposition groups a powerful nationalist and religious narrative. If US bases are the launchpads for attacks on Iran, and Iran retaliates against those bases, the resulting collateral damage, economic disruption, and perception of humiliation will inevitably be directed at the monarchs who permitted the bases to exist in the first place.
The Crumbling US Domestic Front
According to a POLITICO / Public First poll published on July 22, 2026, support for the war on Iran has fallen sharply among Trump’s core MAGA supporters. Just over a third now believe the economic price of the war is justified—a precipitous 13-point drop from 50 percent in May. Another 37 percent of self-identified MAGA voters stated they would back continued US involvement only if costs stop rising, while around one-fifth said the US should end the war no matter the costs. Opposition is even deeper among Trump voters outside the MAGA bloc.
The primary catalyst for this disillusionment is economic pain and mounting casualties. With gas prices having climbed to over $4 per gallon since Trump returned to office, 57 percent of MAGA voters and 63 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters directly blame the war.
The human cost is also becoming impossible to white-wash. At least 18 US soldiers have been killed since the start of the war, with wounded personnel surpassing 500. Just days ago, Trump attended a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base for four US soldiers killed in Iranian attacks: three in a missile strike on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, and a fourth at Erbil Air Base in Iraq. Right before the ceremony, Trump warned that Iran would "pay a big price," but the rhetoric increasingly rings hollow against the backdrop of American coffins.
Behind closed doors, the playbook of endless escalation has been replaced by White House panic. A source close to the administration told POLITICO that the government is at a "maximum level of frustration," with senior figures accepting that "the victory Trump wants cannot be won because the public will not back the escalation required. We've got more dead Americans and a politically impossible situation." With Trump’s approval ratings hovering near the lowest levels of his political career, the Republican Party faces the very real risk of losing its House majority and possibly the Senate in the upcoming November midterms.
The Irony of Hegemony
The United States entered this conflict with the maximalist goal of regime change in Iran, openly encouraging the Iranian people to rise up. The mechanics of modern warfare and the realities of regional geography have turned that logic on its head. By relying on the territories of non-representative, deeply unpopular monarchies to wage war, the US has transformed those regimes into strategic liabilities.
Iran, far from being isolated, has seized the narrative high ground. By positioning itself as the defender of regional sovereignty against American imperialism, Tehran is successfully weaponizing the legitimate grievances of the Jordanian and GCC publics. If the war continues to drag on, exacting a heavy toll in American lives, regional infrastructure, and economic stability, the ultimate irony may be realized: the US war intended to topple the Islamic Republic could instead become the catalyst that brings down the very monarchies Washington relies upon to project its power in the Middle East.
حرس الثورة يوجه رسالة الى الشعب الكويتي
أيها الشعب الكويتي الكريم والنبيل،
إن إخوانكم في الحرس الثوري الإيراني، في سياق معاقبة القوات الأمريكية التي تقتل الأطفال بسبب تدخلاتها في مضيق هرمز، نفذوا هجومًا بطائرة مسيرة ضد مستودع كبير للمعدات العسكرية، ونظام دفاع جوي "باتريوت"، ومخزن للطائرات بدون طيار الأمريكية من طراز MQ-9 في قاعدة علي السالم الجوية، مما أدى إلى تدميرها.
كما هاجم إخوانكم أيضًا أماكن إقامة القوات الأمريكية ومخزنين للمروحيات في معسكر العودة. قُتل أو أصيب عدد من القوات الغازية، وتضررت عدة مروحيات وطائرات بدون طيار بشكل كبير.
كما استهدف المقاتلون برج اتصالات ردًا على الهجمات الأمريكية على أبراج الاتصالات في إيران.
في بعض الأحيان، يُزعم أن إيران، من خلال هجماتها، انتهكت استقلال وسلامة أراضي وسيادة دول أخرى. هذا الحكم خاطئ تمامًا. من وجهة نظرنا، فإن استقلال وسلامة أراضي وسيادة حكومتكم تحظى بتقدير كامل.
ما هو بالضبط القاعدة الأمريكية داخل دولة أخرى؟ إنها مكان يمكن للأمريكيين - وأي شخص يختارونه - الدخول والخروج منه دون الخضوع لرقابة حدودكم. في بعض الأحيان، يتم نقل أسرى من دول أخرى إلى وإلى هذه القواعد. يتم فرض الانضباط هناك من قبل الشرطة العسكرية الأمريكية، وليس من قبل الشرطة العسكرية لقواتكم المسلحة. القاضي الأمريكي هو الذي يحكم على الجرائم التي ترتكب هناك، وليس قضاةكم. القانون الأمريكي هو السائد هناك، وليس قانونكم. ليس فقط أفراد الجيش الكويتي، بل حتى وزير الدفاع الخاص بكم ليس لديه الحق في الدخول دون إذن من الشرطة العسكرية الأمريكية.
لذلك، فإن الولايات المتحدة هي التي انتهكت سلامة أراضيكم وسيادتكم، وليس نحن. نحن نهاجم الأراضي التي تحتلها القوات الأمريكية - وهي قوة لا تعرف سوى ارتكاب الجرائم.
أمس، أقام شعب ميناب الحزين مراسم دفن لبقية أجزاء أطفالهم الذين قُتلوا، والتي تم العثور عليها أثناء عمليات البحث تحت الأنقاض، ودفنوها بجوار بقية رفاتهم. كانوا 168 طفلاً قتلوا في اليوم الأول من هذه الحرب في هجوم من قبل القوات الأمريكية التي تقتل الأطفال. هذه الجرائم مستمرة، ويتم تنفيذ بعضها من خلال استخدام القواعد الأمريكية على الأراضي الكويتية. من حقنا الشرعي والديني والمنطقي استهداف المعتدي على بلدنا وقاتل أطفالنا، أينما كانت هذه الهجمات تنطلق.
نشكركم على تعاونكم.
"والنصر من الله وحده، سبحانه وتعالى، الحكيم
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