Media Review: US-Iran War is Igniting Regime Change Risks Across Arab Monarchies
The Fragile Thrones
As the United States resumes its military strikes against Iran, the geopolitical fault lines of the Middle East are shifting inward. For years, Arab authoritarian regimes have operated on a precarious social contract: trading limited political representation for economic stability and security guarantees, almost always underwritten by Washington. However, as Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia are increasingly perceived as facilitators of a US-Israeli war effort against the Islamic Republic, that social contract is fracturing. Regime change risk, once dismissed by Western analysts as a relic of the 2011 Arab Spring, is now a tangible and escalating reality. Nowhere is this dynamic more explosive than in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
Jordan: The Hashemite Crucible
For decades, the Hashimite regime has relied on a carefully curated narrative of religious legitimacy and royal lineage to consolidate power. This top-down approach has effectively centralized absolute authority in the palace, systematically robbing Jordanians of meaningful self-representation in government. The King retains the final say on all matters of state, a dynamic that has grown increasingly untenable as the kingdom’s foreign policy diverges sharply from the will of its people.
Today, Jordan’s close military alliance with the United States and its perceived complicity in the ongoing devastation of Palestine have sparked profound domestic outrage. This anger is compounded by a deep sense of betrayal regarding the Palestinian cause—a sentiment made more acute by the fact that Queen Rania is of Palestinian roots. To a populace watching neighboring Gaza and the West Bank suffer, the monarchy’s silence, coupled with its logistical facilitation of US-Israeli operations, is viewed not just as a foreign policy choice, but as a moral and political abdication.
The boiling point is now visible on the streets and in the halls of parliament. As recently reported, hundreds of Jordanian political, legal, and civil society figures have signed an open letter demanding the expulsion of US military forces. The letter explicitly warns that these bases expose Jordan to "security, political, and economic risks that serve no national interest" and increase the likelihood of the country being dragged into a regional conflict to which it is not a party.
Ninety-year-old veteran activist Sufyan al-Tell, who was detained by security forces in 2022 for planning to protest a speech by the monarch, framed the letter as a necessary revelation of the chasm between the rulers and the ruled. "We as Jordanian people do not accept the politics of the government and its exploitation of Jordan and its capabilities in one way or another to defend Israel," al-Tell stated, warning that the government’s predictable response is to "open the prison doors and drag us one after another to prison."
The tension is not confined to street activists. In a recent parliamentary session, a heated debate erupted when MP Ali al-Khalayleh suggested issuing formal condolences to Washington following the deaths of US soldiers in Iranian strikes targeting US bases in Jordan. He was swiftly met with furious shouts from fellow lawmakers, with one accusing the US military of killing "children, women, and the elderly."
This domestic fury is set against a backdrop of direct military escalation. Jordan has been among the leading Arab states facilitating US-Israeli attacks against Iran via its airspace and military sites. Consequently, it has become a direct target. Just hours ago, the kingdom reported intercepting Iranian missiles and drones launched in retaliation for the US resuming its strikes on July 30. For an already impoverished kingdom grappling with severe water scarcity, record unemployment, and crushing debt, the economic and security costs of hosting this conflict are becoming catastrophic. King Abdullah II may be forced to recalibrate his foreign and domestic policy, much as he did with limited political concessions during the 2011 Arab Spring. However, the margin for error is drastically thinner today, and the demands of the street are far more systemic.
The Ripple Effect: Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia
The tremors originating in Amman are being felt across the Gulf, where similar dynamics of authoritarian rule and fraught US alliances are creating volatile domestic environments.
In Bahrain, the ruling Al Khalifa family faces a perennial challenge from its Shia majority population, which maintains strong cultural and religious ties to Iran. Bahrain’s role as the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet makes it a prime strategic asset for Washington, but also a primary target for Iranian retaliation. Any perception that Manama is actively enabling strikes against Tehran risks igniting widespread civil unrest that the regime, despite heavy Saudi backing, may struggle to contain without brutal repression that would further isolate it internationally.
In Kuwait, the dynamic is different but equally precarious. The country possesses a more vocal and active parliament than its neighbors, and there is a strong, historically rooted anti-interventionist sentiment among the public. Kuwaiti lawmakers and civil society have consistently pushed back against being drawn into US-led military adventures. As the threat of Iranian retaliation grows, the Kuwaiti government will face immense pressure to distance itself from US military operations, directly challenging the long-standing US-Kuwaiti defense pact and testing the limits of the ruling family’s authority.
The summer of 2026 marks a critical inflection point for Arab monarchies. The assumption that populations will silently endure the geopolitical ambitions of their rulers is no longer valid. By aligning themselves with a US-led war against Iran, these regimes are not merely making a foreign policy calculation; they are gambling with their own survival.
In Jordan, the intersection of economic despair, Palestinian solidarity, and the immediate, physical threat of Iranian retaliation has created a perfect storm. If the Hashemite monarchy, and others like it, cannot fundamentally recalibrate their relationship with both their people and Washington, the demand for regime change will transition from a whispered risk to an unavoidable reality. The era of unquestioned authoritarian stability in the Middle East is drawing to a close.
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