“Iran’s Attack on Israel Failed”

“Iran’s Attack on Israel Failed”

    Wednesday, October 02, 2024   No comments

Western media and Western government reactions to Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel raises serious concerns. Before sharing some of these reactions, some context, then some questions that would drive world community perception of governments' reactions to these developments.

On October 1, Iran struck several military and security sites in Israel in response to Israel’s assassination of Haniyeh, Nasrollah, and Iranian officials. Iran described the attack as “legal, rational and legitimate”.

Israeli leaders said Iran's strike "failed" but also siad that Israel reserves the right to retaliate. Some Western governments said Iran’s attack failed because their armies participated in intercepting the rockets. They also “strongly condemned” the attack by Iran. 

These positions might be convenient at the moment. However, long term, the West might come to regret their reactions and non-reactions to the events of the last weeks and months because their positions expose their disdain to the life and dignity of other peoples, compared to how they avenge the deaths of their own. These are critical moments that require principled response. Few facts will illustrate the problem the West faces.

1. If Iran’s attack failed, why are Western governments condemning it in the strongest terms possible? And did it fail because it did not kill Israeli civilians? Because many of the rockets landed, and they seem to have landed in specific locations, which means if they were aimed at civilian centers they would have landed in civilian centers. Is the West's measure of failure and success determined by the number of civilians killed?

2. Whenever Israel attacks another country and such attacks result in countless deaths of civilians including children and women, the West does not condemn such attacks; instead reaffirms Israel’s right for self-defense. If they believe in a principle of self-defense, Western governments need to answer the questions: Do other peoples and other countries have the right to such self-defense, too?

3. When Israel attacks in self-defense, civilians, including children and women, as acknowledged by France’s president are killed. In fact, in retaliation for the Oct. 7 attack, Israel killed 13 Palestinian children for 1 Israeli death for a total of 16,000 Palestinian chidlren and counting; or 33 Palestinians for 1 Israeli, for a total of 41,000 Gazans and counting. Is this an acceptable formular for self-defense killings?

Answers to these questions are not an exercise in morality speak; answers to these questions can form a practical, sound foundation for ending the cycles of violence.

  

Media Review: What will Hezbollah and Iran do and what might happen in the Middle East after Beirut Attacks?

Media Review: What will Hezbollah and Iran do and what might happen in the Middle East after Beirut Attacks?

    Sunday, September 29, 2024   No comments

In about a week, Israel turned electronic devices into weapons, assassinated military and political leaders, and launched arial bombings in Lebanon injuring thousands and killing hundreds, including the leader of the Lebanese group Hezbollah. Media reports about these unprecedented events vary. Governments’ reactions also vary. A review of how the global media and governments reacted will provide some context. The media review is prefaced by some thoughts about what might happen next, given the current events and given the expressed reactions as reported by media outlets. 

Israeli leaders claim that what they did will usher in a new Middle East. Israel has crossed so many red lines to achieve these stated goals: Destroy Hamas, Hezbollah, and all other affiliated groups. But they don't seem to have an answer for what their plan, long term, is for Palestinians. Instead they seem to focus on Iran. That is where it becomes clear that the current military success is just tactical success and it is not hard to achieve given the superior firepower and military technology the state of Israel enjoys, not to mention the unlimited supply of weapons the US government has provided thus far. However, strategically, this could be seen in the very near future as the moment when Israel forced the Iranian leaders to make a serious strategic shift. Here is why.

Iranian leaders have recently described Israeli leaders' actions as a form of "insanity", for crossing all legal, diplomatic, and ethical boundaries. Given that Israel is believed to have a stockpile of nuclear weapons, in the view of Iranian leaders, such "insane" leaders will not hesitate in using nuclear weapons against Iran. After all, some members of the Israeli government have publicly threatened to use nuclear weapons in Gaza.  If Iran did not take that threat seriously in the past, the recent actions must have changed their nuclear posture. 

Recalling that US assessed in June of this year that Iran was a week to a week and a half from breakout point in developing nuclear weapons capability, if Iran does not respond in the way it responded in the past, attacking with rockets and drones, the US and Israel should worry. Their non-response could mean a muted strategic response, whereby the religious authorities rescind earlier directives not to develop nuclear weapons and issue a new one that would speedup the development of nuclear weapons capabilities, at least for deterrence purposes. Such development would place the world on a path towards catastrophe, not just because of the potential for nuclear incident in the Middle East, but globally given that Russia's president just warned that Russia will change its nuclear posture if Western governments-supplied weapons to Ukraine are used to strike deep inside Russia.

Based on some Iranian media coverage, turning communication devices into discriminate weapons and killing religious figures is a form of nuclear strike without using a nuclear weapon. Some Iranians are now convinced that Israel will use nuclear weapons against their country. This is what will create a strategic shift in the region, not wining a war against non-state actors In Gaza and Lebanon without a plan for a political settlement with the Palestinians.

Media Review: The world mourns 6 dead and ignores 40,000 dead--Haaretz

Media Review: The world mourns 6 dead and ignores 40,000 dead--Haaretz

    Thursday, September 05, 2024   No comments

Israel and the world are mourning the six Israeli detainees who were killed, and their names, photos, life stories and families are making the news, even though they are only the tip of the iceberg of the war in Gaza, and only a small part of its victims. This is how Gideon Levy began his column in Haaretz, saying sarcastically that Hirsch Goldberg Polin and Eden Yerushalmi became celebrities despite their captivity and after their death, just as the world mourned the dead Israeli prisoners, “How could it not be when they were six beautiful young men who went through the hell of captivity before being brutally executed,” Levy added.

Levy was surprised by the astonishing contradiction between the wide coverage of their lives and deaths, and the ignoring of the similar fate of people of their age who are no less innocent, honest and beautiful, and who represent innocent victims on the Palestinian side.

Although the world is shocked by the fate of Gaza, it has never shown similar respect for the Palestinian victims. Neither US President Joe Biden has invited the relatives of the Palestinians who were martyred, even if they hold American citizenship, like the Goldberg and Pullins families, nor has the United States demanded the release of the thousands of kidnapped Palestinians who are being held by Israel without trial.

It is strange that a young Israeli woman killed at the Nova Festival arouses more sympathy and compassion in the world than a teenage refugee from Jabalia, as Levy says, commenting that Israelis are more like “the world.”

They also have names and hopes

If everything has been said about the neglect and concealment of the suffering of the Palestinians in the Israeli public discourse, what has been said is not enough - according to Levy - because the Palestinian killed in Gaza had a face, a name and a life story, and because the 17,000 children killed in the Strip since the beginning of the war also had hopes, dreams and families destroyed by their deaths.

However, the deaths of these people do not matter to the majority of Israelis, and some even rejoice in them, while the world outside Israel views them as horrible victims who have no names or faces, which is astonishing and indicates a loss of humanity, according to the writer.

It is not difficult - as Levy says - to imagine the feelings of the people of Gaza in the face of a world shaken by the deaths of 6 Israeli detainees without any interest in the 40,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza, and without any talk about the non-Israeli detainees.

"What about the hundreds and thousands of Palestinian abductees from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank? What about the administrative detainees who are being held without trial? What about the 'illegal combatants' and innocent workers who were caught and are being held in hellish conditions?" the writer asked.

They too, says Gideon Levy, have anxious families who do not know what has happened to them for the past 10 months. They too are denied visits by the International Committee of the Red Cross, and some of their stories are no less telling than the video of Eden Yerushalmi, which Hamas released this week.

Source: Haaretz

The White House spread false optimism about a cease fire deal for a political reason

The White House spread false optimism about a cease fire deal for a political reason

    Thursday, August 22, 2024   No comments

Israeli military analyst Amos Harel said on Thursday that Washington may have deliberately spread false optimism about the possibility of achieving progress in the prisoner swap negotiations to persuade Iran to postpone its revenge against Israel, noting that Iran and Hezbollah may finally launch their attack after the chances of concluding a deal began to evaporate soon.

In an article published in Haaretz, Harel wrote that it is difficult to know the extent to which Washington is convinced of the possibility of achieving progress in recent weeks, but the end of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's visit to Israel heralded a new phase in which the chances of concluding a deal have declined, according to him.

He added that despite this, the visit achieved its goal of ensuring that there would be no attack by Iran and Hezbollah with the opening of the Democratic Party conference in Chicago, in his opinion.

He stated that the administration of US President Joe Biden deliberately published optimistic estimates of the possibility of achieving progress, in an attempt to persuade the Iranians not to launch their attack, but this may have backfired on them, as the basic problems have not been resolved and the negotiations are stalled after Washington introduced amendments to the draft deal that serve Israel.

*

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip announced that the death toll from the Israeli strikes has risen to 40,265 deaths and 93,144 injuries since October 7, 2023.

The ministry monitored in its daily statistical report that the occupation committed 4 massacres against Palestinian families, of which 42 martyrs and 163 injuries arrived at hospitals during the past 24 hours.

The ministry indicated that a number of victims are still under the rubble and on the roads, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them.

  

Iran retaliates: Israel's miscalculation allowed Iran to sideline US and attack Israel at the same time

Iran retaliates: Israel's miscalculation allowed Iran to sideline US and attack Israel at the same time

    Saturday, April 13, 2024   No comments

It may take time before the world learns that Biden's angry 30-minute call with Israel's pm, Netanyahu, two weeks ago, was not really triggered by Israel armed forces killing aid workers, for Israel had already killed more than 250 aids workers in Gaza before this event, but it was about the attack on the Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria. The next few days and months will reveal how costly Israel’s miscalculation was and that would explain Biden's anger.

Biden's anger was not motivated by his respect for Iran's or Syria's sovereignty, of course. It is motivated by the fact that no other State, ever, had deliberately attacked diplomatic facilities even when two states were at war. This global consensus is enshrined in several treaties and protocols. So, for the State of Israel to be the first to attack a diplomatic facility, violating two sovereignties in one strike, other states were put in a very difficult position, and that opened a window for Iran to re-assert its sovereignty and claim self-defense, the same international principle that has been used by Israel to destroy Gaza and kill more than 41,000 of its people after Hamas launched its own attack on October 7, 2023.

So, on Saturday evening, Iran launched its expected attack on Israel, in response to the bombing of its consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, in early April, by launching dozens of drones and missiles into Israel.

Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said that the army and air force are prepared for the expected Iranian threats, he said.

He added that the army will try to prevent the Iranian drones from reaching Israel, and will deal with them as soon as they arrive, "but we warn that the defense will not be 100%."

ABC quoted a senior American official as saying that he believes Iran will launch between 400 and 500 drones and missiles at Israel.

CNN also reported that an Israeli military official reported that he expected Iran to launch additional waves of drones over time.

This American news network also said that President Joe Biden has now met with his national security team in the White House Situations Room.

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel will protect itself from any threat, and that it will do so calmly and with determination, he said.

Netanyahu added, "Israel is strong, its army is strong, its people are strong, and whoever harms us, we harm him," stressing that "Israel is prepared for any direct targeting from Iran."

He continued by saying, "Our defense systems are deployed, and we are prepared for any scenario, whether in defense or attack."

  

UN Security Council rejects US draft resolution on War in Gaza

UN Security Council rejects US draft resolution on War in Gaza

    Friday, March 22, 2024   No comments

 Algeria, the country that proposed an earlier UNSC resolution to stop the war on Gaza, rejected the US-drafted resolution. It was joined by both China and Russia, whose vetoes sunk the US resolution.

Amar Bendjama, Algeria’s ambassador to the UN, said the text was inadequate and failed to address the immense suffering endured by the Palestinians. “Those who believe that the Israeli occupying power will choose to uphold its international legal obligations are mistaken,” he told the council. “They must abandon this fiction.”

Last February, it objected to the use of the term “immediate” in the draft resolution submitted by Algeria.

Since blocking the Algerian draft resolution, which calls for an "immediate humanitarian ceasefire" in Gaza at the end of last February, US officials have been negotiating an alternative text that focuses on supporting diplomatic efforts on the ground for a six-week truce in exchange for the release of the hostages.

The Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, said that children, women and men are “living an endless nightmare,” stressing that there is no effective way to distribute aid without a ceasefire.

US rejection of three previous UNSC resolutions made some members skeptical and worried that US intentions have been thus far about shielding Israel and not about stopping the bloodshed. They want to see a clean resolution that orders an immediate cease fire and the unhindered delivery of food, water, medicine, and shelter to end the starvation of civilians in Gaza. Other issues can be addressed in separate resolutions.

China insists on an immediate and unconditional ceasefire not linked to the release of the captives

China's Permanent Representative to the Security Council, Zhang Jun, said: "We voted against the American draft resolution because it does not request an immediate ceasefire, even though the Secretary-General used Article 99 of the Charter for that purpose," adding that "the Council wasted a long time and did not request a ceasefire." Fire after."

The Chinese delegate believed that “the American draft resolution is ambiguous and does not meet the aspirations of the international community,” and that it is “unbalanced because it does not explicitly oppose the attack on Rafah,” and “it does not warn of the dire consequences that could result from such an attack.”

He continued: "The Council now has before it a clear draft resolution requesting an immediate ceasefire, and China supports it," expressing his hope "that it will gain the support of member states," because it "requests an end to the conflict and the immediate release of the hostages."

The Chinese delegate also indicated that “China rejects the accusations of America and Britain” related to its positions, considering that “if the United States is serious about a ceasefire, it should support this draft resolution.”

Zhang Jun, China's permanent representative to the UN, offered further explanation about China's voting position and relevant considerations after the vote.

Zhang said that more than 160 days have passed since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict. In the face of this human tragedy in which more than 32,000 innocent civilians have lost their lives and has left millions suffering from famine, the most urgent action to be taken by the Council is to promote an immediate, unconditional, and sustained ceasefire, which is the universal call of the international community. But the Council has dragged its feet and wasted too much time in this regard, Zhang said.

The envoy added that the US has always evaded and dodged the most essential issue, which is a ceasefire. The final text remains ambiguous and does not call for an immediate ceasefire, nor does it even provide an answer to the question of realizing a ceasefire in the short term. This is a clear deviation from the consensus of the Council members and falls far short of the expectations of the international community. 

"An immediate ceasefire is a fundamental prerequisite for saving lives, expanding humanitarian access, and preventing further conflict. The US draft, on the contrary, sets up preconditions for a ceasefire, which is no different from giving a green light to continued killings, and thus unacceptable," Zhang noted.

Moscow said that the American draft resolution does not call for a ceasefire in Gaza.. Talk about that is a hoax

The Russian Deputy Representative to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyansky, confirmed that the American draft resolution on the situation in the Gaza Strip does not include any call for a ceasefire.

Polyansky stated that the draft resolution "does not include any call for a ceasefire, as previous drafts did not include. Rather, only a philosophical statement appeared there about its importance, while linking it to the release of prisoners."

 The Russian diplomat believed that talk about the United States including a ceasefire in Gaza in the draft resolution for the first time is “just an American trick.”

In addition, “there is practically a green light for an Israeli military operation in Rafah, while attention should be focused mainly on praising the United States’ own efforts on the ground,” according to Polyansky.

He added, "This is not what humanitarian agencies need," stressing that "no philosophy will be useful in the absence of a direct demand for a ceasefire."

Polyansky pointed out, "We should not give in to Washington's attempts to present the hope as if it were a real thing, as the United States is still not interested in a real ceasefire, and is doing everything in its power not to prevent its closest ally in the Middle East from abusing the Palestinians."

History of the American veto to protect Israel

The United States’ position on UN Security Council resolutions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is consistent with its historical use of the veto to prevent any resolutions criticizing Israel, or calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The United States, Israel's main backer, had previously used its veto power in the Security Council to prevent the international body from calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Palestinian territories.

Since 1945, one of the five permanent members of the Council - the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France - has used its veto to stop 36 draft Security Council resolutions related to Israel and Palestine before. Of these decisions, the United States objected to 34 decisions, while Russia and China objected to two of them.

Security Council resolutions after October 7

The US veto blocked the resolution issued on October 18, 2023, which had demanded a “humanitarian truce” and Israel’s cancellation of its evacuation order in northern Gaza.

The US representative to the United Nations said, “Resolutions are important... but the actions we take must be based on facts on the ground and support direct diplomacy that can save lives,” according to what Reuters reported.

On February 20, the United States used its veto power again to stop another draft resolution in the Security Council, blocking a demand for an immediate ceasefire on humanitarian grounds.

13 members of the Council voted in favor of the text drafted by Algeria, while Britain abstained from voting.

This is the third American veto against a draft resolution since the start of the fighting in Gaza.

The draft resolution drafted by Algeria and objected to by the United States did not link the ceasefire to the release of the hostages, but rather demanded this separately.

Washington has opposed the use of the word ceasefire in any UN action on the war between Israel and Hamas, but the American text uses language that President Joe Biden said he used last week in a phone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

This is the second time since October 7 that Washington has proposed issuing a Security Council resolution on Gaza. Russia and China had used their veto power to stop its first attempt.

In December, more than three-quarters of the 193-member UN General Assembly voted to demand an immediate ceasefire on humanitarian grounds. General Assembly resolutions are not binding, but they reflect a global consensus on critical matters—More than 150 countries thinking that the war in Gaza should be stopped immediately to address the starvation and killing of civilians leave the US position quite exposed. Only 10 countries voted against this UNGA resolution. The global consensus, if it continues to be opposed by the US alone, will eventually degrade US standing in the world.