Is NATO expansion a cause for the war in Ukraine?

Is NATO expansion a cause for the war in Ukraine?

    Monday, July 17, 2023   No comments

Prof. Robert G. Rabil and attorney Francois Alam wrote a provocative essay to underscore the danger of ignoring Russia's legitimate national security interests. They concluded that "gripped by a false sense of morality enveloped in hubris and Machiavellian calculations, Washington risks taking the world over the precipice of the abyss. This must be prevented." 

The writers see that after America pledged to the Soviet Union that NATO would not approach its borders in 1990, we see that in 1997 NATO called on Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to join the alliance at the Madrid summit. In a second round in 2004, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia became members of NATO. Then came the US position on the Rose, Orange and Square revolutions in Georgia, in the years 2003, 2004 and 2014, to put Washington and Moscow in violent confrontation.

The authors also believe that, in order to clarify Moscow's position in the current war in Ukraine, it is useful to look at history. The Donbass region has been part of the formation of Russia since Moscow defeated the Mongols in the 15th century. Crimea and its vicinity also had a special place to highlight the power of the tsarist empire. As for Peter the Great, he was the first to establish a Russian naval base on the Sea of Azov. During the reign of Catherine the Great, Moscow established its strategic naval base in Sevastopol, which served as the main base for the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The authors considered that America's insistence on ensuring the victory of Ukraine, and considering America's security and stability as part of the security and stability of Ukraine, as well as providing Kiev with the most dangerous conventional weapons, is nothing but an open invitation to World War III and the mutual destruction of the West and Eurasia, and ignoring the fact that NATO's expansion to the east means besieging Russia in its heartland. And ignoring the attempts of the Russian leadership to dissuade the West from its plan.

The authors conclude by saying that supporting Ukraine's victory in such a blatant way is a great incentive for World War III. They stress that the Americans must stop this madness, and the coalition must realize that the way to peace is not through weapons.

The article is linked here: Americans Must Stop the March to World War III over Ukraine

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is finally on

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is finally on

    Thursday, June 08, 2023   No comments

The Biden administration and NATO leaders are now saying that they supplied with Ukraine with all that is necessary and that they asked for. Such statements make the outcome of this counterattack decisive, not only militarily, but, importantly, politically. 

When talks about the Ukrainian counteroffensive was heating up months ago, a prediction was made that that it is unlikely to happen as a full scale attack and if it did, it will be decided by geography, planning according to the presence of natural barriers such as lakes, rivers, and reservoirs. With that thinking, and with Ukrainian stated goal of taking over Crimea, the Zaporozhye direction was the logical frontline that will be used to break through Russian defense lines. 

With the destruction of the major dam (Kakhovskaya HPP), the Kherson frontline is taken out the equation. 

More reasons to focus on the developments in the Zaporozhye front.

US intelligence was informed of the Ukrainian plan to bomb Nord Stream.. It was carried out by Ukrainian military divers working directly under the command of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces

US intelligence was informed of the Ukrainian plan to bomb Nord Stream.. It was carried out by Ukrainian military divers working directly under the command of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces

    Tuesday, June 06, 2023   No comments

The Washington Post reported today, Tuesday, that three months before the Nord Stream pipeline bombing, "Nord Stream", the administration of US President Joe Biden learned from a close ally that the Ukrainian military had planned the secret attack.

The newspaper quoted US intelligence information suspected of being leaked earlier this year by a computer expert who holds a job in the Air National Guard and has access to many highly classified materials.

"The Kiev authorities developed the plan after a reconnaissance operation carried out by a small team of divers who reported directly to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Navy," it added.

The leaked documents indicated that an unnamed European intelligence agency had informed the CIA in June 2022, four months after the Russian military operation in Ukraine, that Ukrainian military divers working directly under the command of the country's commander-in-chief were planning the attack.

And the newspaper continued: “European intelligence reports were shared on the Discord chat platform, which were allegedly by US Air National Guard soldier, Jack Teixeira, and the Washington Post obtained a copy from one of his online friends.”

And she confirmed that the intelligence reports were based on information from a Ukrainian element, adding that the CIA shared the report with Germany and other European countries last June.

Specific details included numbers of operatives and attack methods, according to The Washington Post. This means that for about a year, the Western allies had a basis to suspect Kiev of sabotage. This assessment is further reinforced in recent months "when German investigators uncovered evidence that the bombing bore clear similarities to what the European service said Ukraine was planning."

A few days ago, the German newspaper "Der Spiegel" confirmed that there is new evidence in the investigation indicating Ukraine's involvement in sabotage operations targeting the two "Nord Stream" gas pipelines.

The newspaper reported that the metadata of e-mail messages, which were sent during the charter of the boat, indicated the involvement of Ukraine, pointing to the finding in the yacht of traces of the explosive “HMX” substance, which is very widespread in the west as in the previous block in the east.

Numerous underwater explosions ruptured the newly built Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines connecting Russia and Germany across the Baltic Sea on September 26, 2022.

The explosions occurred in the economic regions of Sweden and Denmark. Both countries say the bombings were deliberate, but have not yet determined who was responsible. The two countries, as well as Germany, are investigating the incident.

Washington and NATO described the incident as an "act of sabotage", while Moscow blamed the West. Neither side provided evidence of the perpetrator of the attacks.

    In related news, the attacks inside Russia and the attack on the dam might be the next crises the West will be forced to manage. 

Just like the Nord Stream explosion, Ukrainian officials denied responsibility and blamed Russia. However, for the incursions inside Russian territories, the armed group was shown to have used Western provided weapons. Western countries said that they provided these weapons on the conditions that are not used to carry out attacks inside Russia. Ukrainian officials have denied any connections. However, if it turns out that Ukraine is involved, the West will have a problem of credibility no matter how one looks at it. Either they are not insisting to Ukrainians on these conditions and don't care; or Ukrainian officials agree to the terms and violate them. In either case, NATO nation-states and Western supporters of the government in Kiev will have to decide how to manage these problems of credibility and loss of control over supplied weapons.

Russian leaders seem to take it one step at the time. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the Belgian ambassador to Moscow.

“On June 6, Belgian Ambassador to Moscow M. Michilsen was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry, who was strongly protested in connection with the revealed facts of the use of Belgian-made weapons by sabotage groups that carried out terrorist attacks on the territory of the Belgorod Region on May 22,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

Ukrainian president said he will not talk to Russia until Putin is gone; meet his likely successor—Medvedev?

Ukrainian president said he will not talk to Russia until Putin is gone; meet his likely successor—Medvedev?

    Thursday, June 01, 2023   No comments

Medvedev, a lawyer and former president of Russia, just labeled the Kiev regime a terror entity and said that it must be exterminated because they act as terrorists, and described the attacks on Russia by drones as a “terrorist act”.

The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, DmitryMedvedev, said that the Ukrainian regime is behaving like a terrorist, adding that terrorists must be eliminated.

Medvedev's remarks came during his visit to a military training center in the Volgograd region, today, Thursday.

Medvedev described the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia as a "terrorist act".

He explained, “This is not a military action,” pointing out that it is a type of weapon that cannot harm military installations.

And the deputy head of the Russian Security Council added: “It is clear to everyone that this is a terrorist attack. It does not comply with the rules of war. Its purpose is to harm the civilian population only, because the drones used cannot cause damage to military installations.

He added, "the Kiev regime must be exterminated because it is a hornet's nest, otherwise it will pose a constant threat," noting that terrorist attacks must be responded to as harshly as possible.

On Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Kiev regime launched a terrorist attack with drones on facilities in the city of Moscow.

In its statement, the ministry indicated that 8 drones participated in the attack on Moscow, and all of them were shot down by the Pantsir-S air defense system.

The Russian defense also confirmed that 3 drones were shot down in Moscow through the use of electronic warfare means, which caused the drones to lose control and deviate from their targets.

Newsweek: How Ukraine Followed the ISIS Playbook

Newsweek: How Ukraine Followed the ISIS Playbook

    Wednesday, May 31, 2023   No comments

Newsweek reports that Ukraine is using commercial drones to score frontline victories, uploading videos with commercial GoPro cameras, accurately capturing enemy tank destruction, sniper kills and grenade blasts.

Inspired by the innovations made by ISIS during its rapid rise in Syria nearly 10 years ago, the terrorist group pushed out sophisticated, polished, and sometimes violent videos as part of a broader recruitment campaign, and distributed emotionally appealing footage to exploit vulnerable sentiment. I have the target.

In her speech, she referred to "Ukrainian brigades, such as the White Wolves, who film footage to publish on social media platforms, with the aim of bringing battles closer to real-life fighting games."

This unit publishes videos showing how its forces succeeded in destroying Russian targets. One such clip, posted on Twitter, published by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), shows an aerial view of military vehicles exploding after being hit from above, according to the magazine.

For Ukraine, “the drive to create great videos from battlefield scenes is more existential: footage from the front lines of the war must attract enough viewers globally to ensure that the country’s fight against Russia is not forgotten, and to prove that the West’s financial and military support Kiev was not in vain," according to "Newsweek."

Professor Sean Huston, who teaches courses on propaganda, social conflict, and media studies at The Citadel, a military college in South Carolina, told Newsweek that the clip is "a great example of the manipulation of combat video and the strange overlap between video games and snapshots of life." The realism associated with the video techniques used by ISIS.

"ISIS has been focusing on using this type of propaganda video, which is unfortunately more attractive to a younger audience," Houston added.

It is not clear, or the magazine did not explain, if this inspiration was due the effective tactics of ISIS or the tactics were developed by the handlers of ISIS who are now involved in the war in Ukraine.

Personalities and ideologies that drive the conflict between NATO and Russia and their semi-proxy war in Ukraine

Personalities and ideologies that drive the conflict between NATO and Russia and their semi-proxy war in Ukraine

    Saturday, May 27, 2023   No comments

Yesterday, the New York Times revealed that the “Anti-Kremlin Group Involved in Border Raid Is Led by a Neo-Nazi”. The paper reported that the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, one of the two insurgent groups responsible for an armed incursion into Russia this week, is a far-right extremist, German officials and humanitarian groups say.

Russia has stated since the start of the conflict in Ukraine in 2014 that neo-Nazis are behind the campaign to kill and displace ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine; Russian leaders have stated that denazification is a goal of its military operation in Ukraine.

On the same day, the German DER SPIEGEL reported that the “evidence confirms Ukraine's involvement in the Nord Stream bombing.” The newspaper confirmed, Friday, that there is new evidence in the investigation indicating Ukraine's involvement in sabotage operations targeting the "Nord Stream" gas pipelines.

And the newspaper reported that the metadata of e-mail messages, which were sent during the charter of the boat, indicate the involvement of Ukraine, pointing to the finding in the yacht of traces of the explosive “HMX” substance, which is very widespread in the west as in the previous block in the east.

"Der Spiegel" stated that all the evidence "consistent with the assessments of several intelligence services, according to which the perpetrators will be searched for in Ukraine."

And the German newspaper continued: "We now wonder whether what happened could have been carried out by unsupervised commandos, or the Ukrainian intelligence services, and to what extent certain elements of the Ukrainian government apparatus were aware of this."

This comes at a time when police investigations are focusing, in particular, on the "Andromeda" yacht, which is likely to be used to transport explosives, which led to the detonation of the pipelines in September 2022, in the Baltic Sea, according to what was reported by "Agence France Presse".

It is likely that the yacht set off from the port of Rostock, in northern Germany, on September 6, with 6 people on board, including divers and a doctor.

It turned out that one of the passengers on the boat holds a Romanian passport, and he is also a "Ukrainian citizen who previously served in an infantry unit."

And at the beginning of this week, other German media traced the file of the boat rental by a Polish company owned, in fact, by Ukrainians.

Investigators are looking into the evidence of "Ukrainian military services," according to Sudeutsche, RND and VDR TV.

Meanwhile, a German analyst suggested that the transferring the Ukrainian war to Russia is a strategic mistake for which the world will pay.

During the past few days, the Russian-Ukrainian war witnessed a remarkable development when Russia revealed that armed elements had entered its territory through the Ukrainian borders, which means that Ukraine may have begun to transfer the war into Russia.

 

And whether you do or plan to do so, the question posed by German writer and analyst Andreas Kluth in an analysis published by Bloomberg News is: Will this development be a good thing?

 

Russia said that "Ukrainian terrorists" and "fascists" attacked Russian territory. Of course, according to the German analyst, such statements and everything issued by the Russian government can be ignored. It has been said that the armed groups that claimed responsibility for the attacks inside Russian territory consist of Russians who defected from President Vladimir Putin's army and are fighting against him for Ukraine now.

 

One of these groups calls itself the "Russian Freedom Corps", and the other is called the "Russian Volunteer Corps", and includes elements of ultra-nationalists.

 

According to Cloth, there is limited information available about these anti-Putin paramilitary forces, especially as to whether they take orders from Ukraine or operate independently.

 

In the context of the conflict with Russia, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said - in a statement - that the Ukrainian army needs about 48 F-16 combat aircraft to liberate the territories occupied by Russia, according to the ministry's statement.

 

On the other hand, the ministry announced that Canada will complete in the coming weeks the delivery of thousands of small arms and live ammunition that it donated to Ukraine.

 

The Ukrainian National News Agency quoted the Ministry of Defense as saying that the delivery of small arms and ammunition had already begun last April, including machine guns and assault rifles.

 

The ministry stated that in the coming weeks, one million bullets and about 5,000 assault rifles will be delivered.

 

Meanwhile, a spokeswoman for the German Defense Ministry said that the ministry had received a request from Ukraine in the past few days to hand over Taurus cruise missiles. The spokeswoman did not give any other details about the letter, such as the number of missiles that Kiev is requesting.

All these developments suggest that if Ukraine accumulates enough weapons, it will be able to use them anyway it sees fit without any consideration of the limits demanded by the Western nations that donated the weapons. This would take things out of control and can result in catastrophic events unless the conflict is recalibrated. Sensing the urgency to act now before it is late, and the to build on the Chines, Brazilian, and African initiatives to settle the conflict, German leaders decided to reopen a direct line of communication with Russia. Schultz intends to reconnect with Putin at the appropriate time

German Chancellor Olaf Schultz announced today, Friday, that he is ready to return to contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin "at the appropriate time," in light of the interruption of talks between them since last December.

 

Schultz said in an interview published by the newspaper "Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger" on Friday that his last phone call with Putin was a long time ago, but he intends to talk to him again at the appropriate time.

 

Regarding his vision for resolving the conflict, Schultz said that Russia "must understand that the war cannot end with some kind of cold peace that would turn the current front line into a new border between Russia and Ukraine, that would only serve to legitimize Putin's campaign."

 

On the contrary, he added, a just peace must be achieved through the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine.

 

But Schultz refused to say whether this withdrawal should also include Crimea, occupied since 2014, and the German chancellor believed that it was up to Ukraine to determine what it wanted.

Commenting on all these developments, and speaking on behalf of Putin, Dmitry Peskov said that “the degree of involvement of the West in the conflict in Ukraine is growing every day.”

 Peskov noted that the involvement of the West can stretch the conflict in time, but will not change the situation radically. "Russia will continue the special operation and one way or another will ensure its interests," the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation stated.

Analyzing the news and views released by Ukrainian and Russian sources about the status and importance of Bakhmut

Analyzing the news and views released by Ukrainian and Russian sources about the status and importance of Bakhmut

    Wednesday, May 17, 2023   No comments

Parsing the news and analysis released by Ukrainian and Russian sources about the status of Bakhmut, the year-long battle in the city appears to have limited strategic value, but became important to Ukrainian politicians as a prop to secure more military support.

Here are some facts that might help us understand the narratives about the battle of Bakhmut.

Bakhmut is an industrial city, part of the Donetsk region but also just 20 miles away from Luhansk, both regions are inhabited by majority ethnic Russians and were annexed by the Russian federation as autonomous republics. 

These regions have been at war with the government in Kiev since 2014. When the Russian troops entered Ukraine in 2022, Bakhmut became the frontline. Ukrainian troops used the underground structures and the hills overlooking the region establish durable defensive lines. Those defensive lines became challenged since Russian troops rotated out of the south (west of the river in Kherson region, and concentrated on the Bakhmut-Avdiivka line of contact. In a way, Bakhmut became important for both sides for different reasons:

The Ukrainians want to preserve Bakhmut because they wanted to show that they can not only hold the line, but also take back territory, including Crimea. If Ukrainian government loses Bakhmut right after claiming victory in Kherson, that would raise doubt about its ability to achieve its stated goals—liberate all territories including Crimea.

Russian need to not only take Bakhmut, but move past Bakhmut to justify the redeployment of troops this active line of contact stretching from Dvorichne in the north to Velyka Novosilka in the south. 

Bakhmut is also important in terms of optics. Since it is seen as a year long battle, it enforces the narratives that Ukrainian troops can hold their ground and retake territories. This would explain why the head of the government made his tour of Europe now and not earlier or later: he can use the “success” Bakhmut to secure more military aid. Many analysists believe that if his troops do not take back new territories this year, Western aid will stop. So this cannot be a lost opportunity in that context.

The big picture, however is this: regardless of ends up holding Bakhmut, can these images of a liberated city apply to Kiev too? In other words, are Ukrainians willing to fight in every major city the same way they are fighter in Bakhmut?

The US is dangerously connecting Taiwan standoff to Ukrainian crisis

The US is dangerously connecting Taiwan standoff to Ukrainian crisis

    Tuesday, May 16, 2023   No comments

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin argues that Russia's success in Ukraine will push China to invade Taiwan and encourage other countries to do the same. Therefore, US will soon provide significant additional security assistance to Taiwan.

By the same logic, the US success in invading Iraq without suffering any consequences pushed Russia to invade Ukraine, and will also push China to invade Taiwan. 

Head of Wagner asks Moscow to hand over the sites of his group in Bakhmut to Kadyrov's Chechen forces in protest of the lack of ammunition

Head of Wagner asks Moscow to hand over the sites of his group in Bakhmut to Kadyrov's Chechen forces in protest of the lack of ammunition

    Saturday, May 06, 2023   No comments

The head of the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group announced on Saturday that he had asked Moscow for permission to hand over his group's sites in the city of Bakhmut, the center of the fighting in eastern Ukraine, to the forces of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, in protest of the lack of ammunition.

"I ask you to issue a combat order, before midnight on May 10, to transfer the positions of the Wagner Group to units of the Akhmat battalion in and around Bakhmut," Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a letter addressed to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Meanwhile, Kadyrov issued the following statement introducing the new group of Chechen troops heading to the war zone:

Another group of volunteers left Grozny for the area of the special military operation. All of them firmly decided to contribute to the fight against Ukronat Satanism, realizing that inaction is an unacceptable luxury for the true sons of the Fatherland.

⠀

Each of these warriors is fully equipped and trained. Fortunately, the Regional Public Foundation named after the Hero of Russia Akhmat-Khadzhi Kadyrov, together with the best instructors of the Russian University of Special Forces, took care of this in advance. Real masters of their craft trained volunteers in precisely those skills and abilities that are currently in demand on the battlefield. Thanks to this subtle approach, the effectiveness of fighters increases significantly.

⠀

At the Grozny International Airport named after the Hero of Russia Akhmat-Khadzhi Kadyrov, the volunteers were seen off by dear BROTHERS - Chairman of the Parliament of the Chechen Republic Magomed Daudov, Minister of Internal Affairs for the Chechen Republic Ruslan Alkhanov and Head of the Grozny Line Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation for Transport Ali Tagirov. In a parting speech, they wished the fighters success in carrying out combat missions and a speedy return to their homeland as winners.

The Kremlin announces that it was attacked by two Ukrainian drones in an attempt to assassinate Putin

The Kremlin announces that it was attacked by two Ukrainian drones in an attempt to assassinate Putin

    Wednesday, May 03, 2023   No comments

The Russian presidency announced, in a statement today, Wednesday, that the Kremlin was attacked by marches last night, in an attempt to assassinate President Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin statement confirmed that "Putin was not harmed as a result of the terrorist attack, his agenda has not changed, and it continues as usual."

The statement said: "Two drones launched by the Ukrainian army were shot down, which led to the fall of their remnants in the area."

The statement indicated that "Moscow considers the attack on the presidential residence a planned terrorist act and an attempt to assassinate a head of state," and that it "reserves the right to respond at the appropriate time and place."

The presidential statement saw that the assassination attempt on the President of the Russian Federation comes on the eve of Victory Day in the May 9 parade, as foreign guests are also planned to be hosted.

In parallel, the mayor of the capital, Moscow, announced a ban on flying drones, starting today, Wednesday.

In late December 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the statements of US officials at the Pentagon regarding the "decapitation strike" against the Kremlin "represented a threat to the physical liquidation of President Vladimir Putin."

It is noteworthy that Ukraine's attempt to assassinate the Russian president comes after the progress made by the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.

Earlier today, a well-informed security source told the Russian agency "Sputnik" that "the Russian armed forces are using concentrated collective strikes using Lancet suicide drones, in order to remove the remnants of the Ukrainian long-range air defense systems in one fell swoop."

Two days ago, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the destruction of 14 Ukrainian drones, the downing of a helicopter, and the liquidation of more than 825 Ukrainian soldiers and mercenaries, while the founder of the "Wagner" forces, Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced that his fighters had advanced about 150 meters in the city of Bakhmut, indicating that what remains is approximately 3 square kilometers. from the city lands.

The Russian forces had achieved field gains at the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut, which has been the center of fighting for months.

The military magazine "Military Watch" said earlier that the US "Patriot" air defense system, which Washington delivered to Ukraine, is unable to intercept Russian missiles, especially hypersonic ones.

Updated 5/3/2023:

After the attack, Deputy Chair of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. The President of Russia, 2008-2012, Dmitry Medvedev, issued this statment:

After today's terrorist attack, there are no options left except for the physical elimination of Zelensky and his cabal.

It is not even needed to sign the act of unconditional surrender.

Hitler, as you know, did not sign it either. There will always be some kind of changer like the Zitz President

Admiral Dönitz...

 

Strong reaction by Medvedev to South Korea's readiness to supply Kiev with weapons: What will the South Koreans say if Russian weapons reach their northern neighbor?

Strong reaction by Medvedev to South Korea's readiness to supply Kiev with weapons: What will the South Koreans say if Russian weapons reach their northern neighbor?

    Wednesday, April 19, 2023   No comments

It would seem that Russian leader have a counter-move to every move by Western countries who are increasing or thinking about increasing their support to Ukraine. To this end, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev commented on South Korean President Yoon Sok Yul's statement of his country's readiness to supply weapons to the Kiev regime. He asked: What will the South Koreans say if Russian weapons reach their northern neighbor?

This came in a post by Medvedev on his official channel on the “Telegram” application, where he wrote: There are new people willing to help our enemies, as South Korean President Yoon Sok Yul said that this country, in principle, is ready to supply weapons to the Kiev regime.

And this is given that the South Koreans have been asserting strongly, until recently, that the possibility of supplying Kiev with lethal weapons is completely excluded.

What will the people of this country say when they see the latest Russian weapons designs in their closest neighbours, our partners from North Korea?

This is called bartering.

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that South Korea's provision of military aid to Ukraine would mean Seoul's participation in the conflict to some extent.

Here is a translation of his statement:

There are new ones willing to help our enemies. South Korean President Yun Sok-yeol said that, in principle, this state is ready to supply weapons to the Kyiv regime. 

Moreover, until recently, the South Koreans ardently assured that the possibility of supplying lethal weapons to Kyiv was completely ruled out.

I wonder what the inhabitants of this country will say when they see the latest designs.

Russian weapons from their closest neighbors - our partners from the DPRK?

What is called 

Quid pro quo…

War News In Review: Is there going to be a Ukrainian spring offensive this year?

War News In Review: Is there going to be a Ukrainian spring offensive this year?

    Monday, April 17, 2023   No comments

Since Russian troops pulled back from the Kherson region west of the Dnipro River, Ukrainian politicians built a narrative about a counter offensive that would result in their troops taking back Crimea. It was convincing enough of a sales pitch that many previously hesitant NATO nations decided to supply the Ukrainian government with almost everything they asked for, including advanced tanks, guided missiles, and more ammunitions.

The counteroffensive that was supposed to start late in winter was rebranded as the Spring Offensive. Halfway through spring 2023, and no major Ukrainian troop movement has been detected anywhere in the frontlines except the redirection of elite troops to defend the Russian offensive already underway in Bakhmut and Avdeeva (Avdiivka) fronts. 

From studying the control maps compiled by multiple sources, including Ukrainian activists, over the past three months (not the year), for every square mile reclaimed by Ukrainian forces, Russian forces gained more than 100 square miles. Importantly, the gained territories are cities and towns, including Bakhmut and Avdeeva, turned by the armed forces of Ukraine into shielded fortresses, protective trenches, and secretive tunnels and underground bunkers.

Over the past year, the only zone Russian troops were forced out of because of a Ukrainian offensive was in the northeast region of the Donbass region—Kharkiv front. There, Russian troops were pushed back from areas they wanted to control. Russian generals believed that the loss there was due to their forces being spread too thin over a long active frontline. 

The generals who suffered the loss were rotated out and new generals were appointed, many of whom had experience fighting urban warfare in Syria. Soon after taking over command, they recommended the creation of fortified, defensible frontlines. The plan was approved and troops were pulled to the west side of the major river dividing Ukraine into the Western territories and the eastern territories—Dnipro River. Russian generals did not just use the Dnipro River as a defensive line that separated them from Ukrainian troops, they destroyed the bridges once they moved to the east side; they conducted a similar tactical retreat in the northeast using the Oskil River to limit a massive attack by Ukrainian troops. These moves essentially cut the open active frontlines by about 40%, leaving them with only 60% of contact space, to which they allocated more resources.

In fact, it is conceivable that the gains in Bakhmut and Avdiivka were made possible by the adjustments made in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts—thanks to the use of natural barriers, rivers and dams, to make any large-scale attack by Ukrainian troops very risky and manageable by fewer Russian troops while the majority are utilized elsewhere. This worked in favor of Russia since it needed time to train and equip the newly mobilized troops--about 300,000 of them, many are still going through specialized training.

Russian troops have also learned from their mistakes during the early days of the military operation. They realized that drones, though have limited effects compared to fighter jets, they can nonetheless inflict huge damage on troops bogged down in open spaces.

Ukrainian troops were able to inflict some losses using Turkish drones; Ukrainians even made a song about the Bayraktar TB2 Drones. From that experience, Russians learned that cheap drones can in fact change the outcomes of battles and they can inflict crippling damage on exposed troops marching on the offense. Russian leaders not only reached out to allies to purchase drones, which was quickly used, but they ramped up production of their own drones and guided ammunition.

When all this is taken together, it becomes clear that moving heavy war machines to retake territories, in the presence of cheap drones and guided missiles that can be launched from afar, is very risky. Even if Ukraine receives enough of the promised tanks from US, EU, and NATO, these tanks will be vulnerable especially when they have to be moved across river and open spaces.

For Ukrainian troops to retake Crimea, they will have to use a large number of armored vehicles and tanks and they have to be able to cross the mentioned natural barriers. This makes the Zaporizhzhia frontline the likely path for launching an attack southward.

Ukrainian politicians may have set the bar too high for themselves. Perhaps they had to do so to be able to get more weapons from their NATO allies. However, now that they have received the weapons they asked for, they must show that they can deliver on their promises.

From what is known from the data in the public domain, if they do undertake a massive counteroffensive, they will lose the battle and such a loss may decide the outcome of the war. But because of the rhetoric they put out, and the support they received, it is possible that they know that the outcome of the war will be decided this year one way or another. That does not mean that the war will end this year; but the direction of the war will be decided this year. If a pridiction must be made, then it can be concluded that there will be no Ukrainian spring offensive this year that will result in Ukrainian forces taking back Crimean or any other major regions; and if Ukrainians muster one, they will lose the war because of it.

 

 

The President of the Political Council of Sanaa Government meets the delegations of Saudi Arabia and Oman in Sana'a

The President of the Political Council of Sanaa Government meets the delegations of Saudi Arabia and Oman in Sana'a

    Sunday, April 09, 2023   No comments

 The head of the Supreme Political Council in Yemen, Mahdi Al-Mashat, met with the delegations of Oman and Saudi Arabia in the capital, Sanaa, according to Yemeni media.

During the meeting, Al-Mashat stressed his country's firm position on a just and honorable peace, which the Yemeni people seek and achieve their aspirations for freedom and independence.

He also expressed the gratitude of the Yemeni people for the mediation efforts undertaken by the Sultanate of Oman, its positive role in bringing points of view closer, and its efforts to achieve peace.

For his part, the head of the Saudi delegation expressed his thanks to the Sultanate of Oman for their important role and great efforts in the framework of bringing peace to Yemen, and their keenness to support peace and stability in Yemen.

The meeting was also attended by the head of the national delegation, Muhammad Abdel Salam, the deputy head of the national delegation, Lieutenant General Jalal Al-Ruwaishan, the head of the Security and Intelligence Service, Major General Abdul Hakim Al-Khaiwani, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hussein Al-Ezzi, the member of the national delegation, Abdul-Malik Al-Ajri, and the head of the Military and Security Committee, Major General Abdullah. Yahya Al-Razami.

Yesterday, Saturday, the Omani and Saudi delegation arrived in the Yemeni capital, in order to complete the talks to extend the armistice, after expanding its terms and conditions.

For his part, the head of the Sana'a negotiating delegation, Muhammad Abd al-Salam, announced Sana'a's demands represented in "stopping the aggression, lifting the blockade completely, and disbursing salaries from oil and gas revenues." In addition to these demands, "the exit of foreign forces from Yemen, compensation and reconstruction."

As for the member of the Political Bureau of the Ansar Allah movement, Muhammad Al-Bukhaiti, he revealed, in an interview with Al-Mayadeen, that "there is an understanding with Saudi Arabia," without going into details.

Earlier, a member of the political bureau of the "Ansar Allah" movement, Abd al-Wahhab al-Mahbashi, confirmed that "the Iranian-Saudi agreement is positive, and it will have an impact on the Yemeni file."

A few days ago, Iran welcomed the relative openness resulting from the ceasefire on April 2, 2022, and the limited peace that Yemen witnessed after a long war launched by the United States, whose direct and indirect consequences affected civilians, women, and innocent people.

A sudden meeting between Saudi and Iranian officials in Muscat to discuss important files, on top of which are relations and developments in the region

Today, Sunday, the Saudi ambassador to the Sultanate of Oman, Abdullah bin Saud Al-Anzi, met with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Al-Najafi, in Muscat.

And the Iranian Student Agency, ISNA, reported that “at this meeting, they discussed bilateral relations, developments in the region, and the latest developments in the return of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.”

Last Thursday, the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia signed a joint statement, at the end of their talks in the Chinese capital, Beijing, which stipulated the start of arrangements to reopen embassies and consulates and expand bilateral relations and cooperation.

According to the statement, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian agreed with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, to resume the exchange of visits by officials and private sector delegations.

The role of the UN and the UNSC in preventing conflict

The role of the UN and the UNSC in preventing conflict

    Saturday, April 01, 2023   No comments

The role of the UN and the UNSC in preventing conflict is non-existent because of its lack of independence from Western hegemony.

UN spokesperson Farhan Haq was asked if the US military presence in Syria is illegal. Listen and watch his answer.

Substitute the questions about Syria with same questions about the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and you get your answers why the world is not up in arms against the Russian military intervention in Ukraine. Only the West is, but it was the West that made such actions acceptable.

Media review: Cracks in Western media coverage of the war in Ukraine created by the narrative of a spring offensive and Bakhmut

Media review: Cracks in Western media coverage of the war in Ukraine created by the narrative of a spring offensive and Bakhmut

    Friday, March 31, 2023   No comments

Ukrainian leaders institance to defend Bakhmut at any cost and the outcome of that battle may create a narrative problem for media, thus far eager to promote the notion that Ukraine will be able to retake all the lost terrirties militarily. 

Western media and officials in Ukraine are promoting the spring offensive as it will adjust the balance of military forces and restore dignity to the Ukrainian army, without any indication of the date of the attack or on which front it will start. There may be actual preparations for this counter-attack, but this does not negate that it may be a last attempt before the great collapse.

The words of Scott Ritter, a retired US Marine Corps intelligence officer whose statements were celebrated by the Russian media that Ukraine faces inevitable defeat, depend on military estimates and indicators that the Western media tries not to address.

The Ukrainian army has not been able to achieve a breakthrough in the Russian defenses during the past months, at a time when the continuous Western support did not succeed in changing the rules of the field balance of forces. The situation in Bakhmut embodies the course of the war throughout Ukraine. According to what was announced by the Ukrainian presidential advisor, Sergey Leshchenko, on Thursday, that Kiev no longer controls only a third of the city of Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine, which has been witnessing fierce battles for months. While the Russian forces control 70 percent of the civilian population. With this field reality in Bakhmut, it is clear that the Ukrainian forces are preparing to suffer a resounding defeat after months of attempts to defend the city with the support of Western countries. For this reason, the foreign ministers of NATO countries will hold a new meeting in Brussels between the third and fifth of next April, a meeting in which they will stress the continuation of US support for Ukraine. But what will the alliance do about the retreat of the Ukrainian army?

Away from the details of the decisive battles in Bakhmut, and in general, the reports that the Western media controls are obfuscating them, talking about the emergence of symptoms of the defeat of the Ukrainian army. And indications of developments indicate that Ukraine is not on its way to achieving a complete victory, with the apparent stumbling of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's attempts to recover what his country lost in the war.

Western media and officials in Ukraine are promoting the spring offensive as it will adjust the balance of military forces and restore dignity to the Ukrainian army, without any indication of the date of the attack or on which front it will start. There may be actual preparations for this counter-attack, but this does not negate that it may be a last attempt before the great collapse.

The words of Scott Ritter, a retired US Marine Corps intelligence officer whose statements were celebrated by the Russian media that Ukraine faces inevitable defeat, depend on military estimates and indicators that the Western media tries not to address.

Everything is already there, Ritter adds. The decisive defeat of Ukraine is inevitable. Ukrainian forces can do nothing to prevent Russia from destroying them.”

Regarding the promised spring offensive, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba says that the failure of the offensive planned by the Ukrainian armed forces will strengthen the positions of supporters of a settlement with Russia in the West.

“They (proponents of settling the conflict with Russia through diplomacy) are everywhere – in Washington, in Berlin, in Paris, in London. They will try to do something creative in the spirit of Minsk-3.”

According to Kuleba, if the Ukrainian offensive falters, this will affect the additional supply of American and European weapons. He also noted that there is a narrative in the West that is dangerous for Kiev that the Ukrainian Armed Forces must wage “one decisive battle” that determines the outcome of the entire conflict, otherwise military assistance must be stopped.

On the other hand, a lengthy report published by the New York Times revealed many imbalances among the American volunteers in Ukraine, some of which relate to claiming non-existent military experience, wasting resources, and trying to profit from the war.

The “New York Times” highlighted that the research and interviews it conducted revealed a series of acts of deception, mistakes, and disagreements among volunteer fighters in Ukraine that hindered the volunteer campaign that began after the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the end of February 2022, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky launched an appeal requesting He asked all friends of Ukraine who wanted to join the fight in its defense to come to the country, stressing that Ukraine would give them weapons to do so.

NATO nations’ support to Ukrainian armed forces reaches another level

NATO nations’ support to Ukrainian armed forces reaches another level

    Thursday, March 30, 2023   No comments

Ukrainian officials have shown off nee weapons systems received from NATO nations, which they said will allow them to launch offensive actions to take back territories now under Russian control.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, released images of new weapons and transport systems handed over by the US. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov, was shown testing the new Strykers and Cougars handed over by USA.

Also, more than 300 powerful DJI Mavic 3T Thermal copters for Ukraine's Defense Forces were transferred to the frontlines, according to Ukrainian forces.

This unprecedented number of weapons transferred to a war zone is likely to push both sides to escalate.

Russian officials have used a strategy of inserting new weapons to the battle field incrementally and in reaction to NATO’s increased involvement, which can lead to a dangerous nuclear confrontation.

These developments bring to the forefront once again the consequences of illegal wars, invasions, and aggressions undertaken by Western states in the last 3 decades. Most recently, the US invasion of Iraq and how that event is unmasking the inequality that permeates the world today. If Iraq has had reliable and powerful allies with nuclear weapons, who decided to take the same actions taken by Western nations to support Ukraine resist an illegal war, what would the outcome have been? What if Russia and China, had used the same logic, and decided to openly provide weapons and military support to Iraq to defend itself? What would that have done to the world order then?

And did Russia exert a level of restraint, voicing their opposition to those illegal wars (Ira, Syria, Yemen, and Libya) without providing any lethal aid to these attacked nations to defend themselves, made them think that if they did the same, attack another nations in the future, the West will do the same (not provide military assistance)?

Since that assumption is proved wrong now, will Russia supply its friends who are under threat of attack from Western nations, like Iran, with all kinds of weapons and technology to pre-empt an attack, or strike military alliances that would allow them to intervene militarily in defense of their allies?

This is how complex the effects of the war in Ukraine and the West’s reaction to it is. With election cycles around the corner in key Westerm nations, it is only  matter of months, not years, to see how these decisions will shape the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

An investigative report reveals that some countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are secretly sending ammunition to Ukraine

An investigative report reveals that some countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are secretly sending ammunition to Ukraine

    Tuesday, March 28, 2023   No comments

A report on the "Intelligence Online" website said that a number of countries, which are part of an alliance with Western countries and NATO, secretly send ammunition and military aid to Ukraine.

The report stated that a large group of these countries, "despite their formal neutrality, especially countries dealing with the military industry sector in the West, are indirectly helping the war effort to support Ukraine militarily, by secretly opening up its stockpiles of weapons in favor of Kiev."

The site investigated, in particular, the supply of French "Crotal" and "Mistral" missiles, anti-aircraft and air targets, short and medium range, and French "Milan" anti-tank missiles, for use against Russia.

Ukraine's extensive use of missiles and missiles is a motive for its allies to urgently find new military supplies, especially after Kiev's growing demands for more ammunition and weapons to be used against Russian forces.

French officials remain silent so far on this issue, and it seems that the participation of these countries came as part of an agreement at the level of Western countries and their allies, according to which these participating countries were requested.

According to information obtained in the relevant capitals, a group of neutral governments have officially opened their military stockpiles, in order to compensate for the shortage caused by dwindling Western ammunition stocks, after more than a year of conflict in Ukraine.

The information stated that "the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar provided, within this framework, hundreds of "Mistral" anti-aircraft missile systems, which were delivered to Ukraine, thanks to the intermediary countries working for Kiev.

Other countries, officially involved in supporting Ukraine, such as Finland, supplied it with weapons and made it public. However, countries, such as the Gulf states, which have relations with Moscow, chose to maintain secrecy regarding the provision of "Mistral" missiles to Ukraine.

A few days ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Europe to "strengthen the supply of modern weapons, expedite their dispatch, and impose tougher sanctions on Russia."

"It is up to the 27-nation bloc to take measures to contain Russia, more than a year after its war with Ukraine," Zelensky said, in a speech that expressed exceptional and frank frustration.

He pointed out that the European Union "was the one that postponed decisions on providing long-range weapons and modern combat aircraft, and moving forward with talks to grant Ukraine its membership."

Czech Republic announces the cessation of military assistance to Ukraine

This comes after the President of the Czech Republic declared that his country “can no longer help Ukraine militarily by supplying weapons,” due to “the shortage of its military depots,” and its “inability to adequately produce ammunition,” especially since its forces “are suffering significant deficiency."

 

According to the Czech president, his country "has the opportunity to expand production in the field of air defense and ammunition, but there is a problem due to a shortage of labor with the current unemployment rate, which is very low in the republic," noting that "a way out of the situation requires attracting workers from Ukraine."

Last week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced a new US military aid package worth $350 million to Ukraine, based on an authorization from US President Joe Biden, while the thirty-fourth withdrawal of US weapons and equipment from the stockpile allocated to the Ministry of Defense within a year.

20 Years ago, Today, the United States Government and Allied Illegally Invaded Iraq

20 Years ago, Today, the United States Government and Allied Illegally Invaded Iraq

    Sunday, March 19, 2023   No comments

What is the difference between the war in Iraq and the war in Ukraine?

What is the difference between the war in Iraq and the war in Ukraine?

    Tuesday, March 07, 2023   No comments

 While US and EU Allies attack Russian military intervention in Ukraine as illegal, and in a display of complete tone deafness, US military chief lands in Iraq to remind the world of its own illegal war on Iraq.

Just before the twentieth anniversary of the American invasion, Lloyd Austin visits Iraq.

An American official says that this visit aims to demonstrate Washington's commitment to maintaining its military presence in Iraq after nearly 20 years of invasion.

An American official said that this visit aims to demonstrate Washington's commitment to maintaining its military presence in Iraq after nearly 20 years of US-led invasion alongside an international coalition to overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime.

On Twitter, when landing in Baghdad, Austin wrote, "I am here to reaffirm the strategic partnership between the United States and Iraq as we move towards a safer, more stable and sovereign Iraq".