Politicians’ Micromanagement of the war in Ukraine is exacting a heavy cost

Politicians’ Micromanagement of the war in Ukraine is exacting a heavy cost

    Monday, March 06, 2023   No comments

There is no doubt that Russian leaders started their operation in Ukraine with different calculus. They may have underestimated the cohesion of the Ukrainian armed forces, perhaps thinking that many will switch side or even overthrow the civilian leadership in order to settle the conflict with minimum losses.  By the second week of the conflict, however, Russian generals seem to have become convinced that Ukrainian generals prepared for the war and the war will be years long--not days or weeks. The Russian generals recommended retreat from areas near Kiev. The redeployment was quick, within days, Russian troops that were just 20 miles from the seat of the Ukrainian government were moved the Donbass region. Still, the Russian forces lost many troops and military hardware. 

By the fall of 2022, Russian generals also realized that their positions in the south, in Kherson, west of the Dnipro River, are difficult to defend. They recommended moving troops across the river. The ministry of defense leaders took their recommendation to the political leadership, where the recommendation was approved. Troops moved across and the bridges were destroyed to limit the chance of success of any massive counter attack by Ukrainian troops.

In contrast, when Ukrainian troops were loosing the battle in Mariupol, south of Ukraine, they were ordered to stay and fight. They stayed. The city was besieged and no one was able to escape. Those who did not die, an estimated 2000 Ukrainian troops, surrendered and were taken as POWs, some of whom were handed over in return for Russian POWs. 

The same scenario repeated itself in Soledar and other cities and town in the vicinity of Bakhmut. It is reasonable to assume that the hundreds of miles long underground tunnels and mines are very valuable defensive locations and should not be abandoned without a fight. However, when such positions cannot be defended, delaying the inevitable can have a huge strategic and tactical impact on the course of the war.

The images of Ukrainian troops dead, and those who did not die are exhaustedly walking in muddy backroad because all major roads are now under the control of Russian forces, such images can be demoralizing to the rest of the troops in nearby towns. They will be forced to think that their turn will be next and they will be thinking of escape routes, which would take their focus away from the battle. 

In an attempt to open a road for retreating troops, mechanized forces brought in heavy weapons, which exposed them to arial attacks. When these forces return to their defensive positions, such positions will be known and that will degrade their ability to launch counter attacks.

When Russian generals recommended retreat from some areas, the move was approved and the retreat took place quickly, minimizing losses. 

When Ukrainian generals recommended the same, every time the president of Ukraine ordered them to stay until the last minute, only to retreat leaving behind dead soldiers and destroyed equipment. That is the cost of politicians running the war by remote.

The outcome of the war in Ukraine may not depend on how much weapons NATO can supply to Ukraine, but how many costly mistakes politicians would make managing battles.

Here is Zelenskiy's recent statement about the reported difference of opinion; he said there was no other opinion. If true, that would be troubling state of mind.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops are chaotically retreating from Bakhmut, leaving behind destroyed western supplied hardware. With no major roads available for the retreating troops, they are forced to use backroads that do not allow for relocation of heavy equipment. If political leaders send more troops to reopen supply roads or to secure roads for retreating troops, those forces will be exposed and may suffer the same fate.

Here is a glimpse of Ukrainian troops retreat.

The History of Illegal, Unjust Wars

The History of Illegal, Unjust Wars

    Sunday, February 26, 2023   No comments

History of Illegal, Unjust Wars

Western Media Review: After the Ukraine war, the West has become more isolated

Western Media Review: After the Ukraine war, the West has become more isolated

    Thursday, February 23, 2023   No comments

A year after the war in Ukraine, the West has never been more isolated, Politico reported Thursday.

The newspaper said, "The war in Ukraine accelerated the development of a post-Western world, and given current trends, it seems that this world may be more united, but also more isolated from the rest."

She added, "A year after the war in Ukraine, European and American governments defied critics with an extraordinary display of unity," asking: "But has this internal cohesion been achieved at the expense of external influence?"

This is the main question explored in a new survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations and the Europe in a Changing World project at Oxford University, which covers public opinion from 10 European countries and five from other regions of the world.

According to the results of the survey, while the war brought the West closer together, it also revealed a gap between the West's perception of Russia and the war, and the perception of other countries, and part of this gap comes from radically different perceptions of the state of the world.

Citizens from Europe and non-Western countries share the same conviction that the US-led liberal order is over, but their understanding of what kind of order will come next differs sharply, according to the survey.

He also revealed that many in the West believe, through the legacy of the Cold War, that we are entering a bipolar world dominated by the United States and China, but in other parts of the world, they do not believe this division. The fundamental reason for this is that from the perspective of those in China, Turkey or Russia, we are entering a multipolar world between many centers of power, not a bipolar one.

In other words, the citizens of these countries believe that fragmentation into different systems will determine the future. In this scenario, the entire West would be just one center of power among many others, which would not single-handedly define order and lead global democracy.

According to the newspaper, the most fundamental reason for this view is that people in non-Western major powers now tend to believe that they also represent a real democracy. % of Indians, 36% of Turks, and 20% of Russians.

The newspaper pointed out that with Western governments anticipating the return of the Cold War-type bipolarity between democracy and tyranny, they often tend to view countries such as India and Turkey as swing states that can be persuaded to take sides, pointing out that "these countries see themselves completely differently, As emerging great powers, they may side with the West on some issues, but not on everything.

She also reported that "the ability of the West to work alongside those international partners who have a different understanding of the conflict will have an important impact on the outcome of the war, as well as on the shape of geopolitics," noting that "it takes humility to see countries like India, Brazil and Turkey as partners." In shaping the future system, not as players being moved to the right side of history."

Secret documents reveal for the first time.. Bush and Blair were certain of Iraq's inability to develop weapons of mass destruction two years before the war

Secret documents reveal for the first time.. Bush and Blair were certain of Iraq's inability to develop weapons of mass destruction two years before the war

    Tuesday, February 21, 2023   No comments

Britain recently released documents to the British Cabinet that reveal information about the US-British lies that the two countries told before the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

The documents revealed that London was confident that the allegations of Iraq's possession of any ability to obtain weapons of mass destruction or long-range missiles, at least two years before its invasion, were false.

And the “BBC” considered that these documents are the first of their kind that “proves that the British Prime Minister (at the time) Tony Blair knew that Iraq was devoid of any capabilities to possess prohibited weapons in accordance with United Nations resolutions issued before and after the removal of the Iraqi army from Kuwait in February. 1991, in the aftermath of Operation Desert Storm.

Twenty years after the start of the war, the documents confirm that "the policy of containment and the strict international sanctions imposed on Iraq after the liberation of Kuwait from the occupation of its army in 1991 achieved its goal of preventing Saddam Hussein from developing weapons that were not permitted."

The documents refer mainly to the effectiveness of British military, arms and technological sanctions in the context of a review conducted by the Blair administration in 2001 of the US-British policy on Iraq, and this review was agreed upon during the first visit of the British Prime Minister to Washington after the inauguration of George Bush Jr., as US President.

The documents confirm that (at the time) Britain offered the Bush administration a new policy called “a contract with the Iraqi people” aimed at obtaining support, especially from the countries and peoples of the Arab region, for the US-British policy in dealing with Iraq.

The review clearly confirmed, according to the documents, that “without the containment policy that we follow, it was likely that Iraq would now possess a long-range missile capable of reaching Britain and Europe, as well as chemical, biological and nuclear warheads for such a weapon (the missile).”

She pointed out that the United Nations ban on Iraq manufacturing missiles with a range not exceeding 150 kilometers "is a major restriction that prevents it from developing such a missile."

The documents say that "the Blair administration sought to communicate effectively with the French to persuade them to include elements of the contract with the Iraqi people in any statements issued to promote our new approach at the United Nations."

The review suggested that “we may inform major Arab countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait about the new approach in order to issue supportive statements.”

War narratives and justifications: the case of war in Ukraine

War narratives and justifications: the case of war in Ukraine

    Tuesday, February 07, 2023   No comments

War is never a simple "bad versus good", "right versus wrong"; every war has its competing narratives and justifications; the 2022 war in Ukraine is no different. The same applies to the wars in Syria, Libya, Yemen, and all the wars whose justifications were reduced to bad-versus-good.

Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs presents this narrative, in an interview on “Winter of Our Discontent” forum - Belgrade, Serbia.

“I'm deeply unimpressed with the analysis that the war in Ukraine began on 24 February, by an unprovoked attack by President Putin - it's just not true.”

 

In the strongest threat.. Medvedev: If “Crimea” is targeted, the rest of the Ukrainian lands that are still under Kyiv’s control will turn to ashes, and there will be no restrictions, and our response will be with all kinds of weapons

In the strongest threat.. Medvedev: If “Crimea” is targeted, the rest of the Ukrainian lands that are still under Kyiv’s control will turn to ashes, and there will be no restrictions, and our response will be with all kinds of weapons

    Saturday, February 04, 2023   No comments

The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, announced that his country has not set restrictions for itself when responding to any attacks against its territory from Kyiv, and there will be a willingness to use all kinds of weapons to respond to that.

Medvedev added, during press statements, by saying: “Our response can be anything, and the Russian president confirmed that. We do not set ourselves any restrictions and, depending on the nature of the threats, are ready to use all kinds of weapons.”

"If Ukraine launches any attack on Crimea, there will be counter-attacks, and the rest of the Ukrainian lands that are still under Kyiv's control will turn to ashes," the deputy head of the Russian Security Council stressed.

In a related context, the adviser to the President of the Russian Republic of Crimea for media policy, Oleg Kryuchkov, described the threat of the Kyiv authorities to launch a missile attack on the peninsula as “barking” from under the sofa, according to “Sputnik”.

Earlier, the adviser to Vladimir Zelensky's office, Mikhail Podolyak, said that after agreeing with the West on the supply of tanks, Kyiv is negotiating the supply of long-range missiles and aircraft to launch strikes in Crimea.

Fighting in Crimea could impact Tatar Muslims there. Tatars are indigenous inhabitants of Crimea, Eastern European Turkic people historically formed in the Crimean Peninsula, which is on the northern coast of the Black Sea. It is estimated that 500,000 Tatar Muslims inhabied the region. Crimean Tatars are, genrally, Sunni Muslims, and they make up 15% of the Crimea population. The majority of the Crimean population adheres to the Russian Orthodox Church.

Crimean Tatars are ethnically connected to the people who live in the Republic of Tatarstan. Founded in 1005 on the banks of the Volga River, about 500 miles east of Moscow, Kazan, the capital of the republic, was a main stop along the Silk Road, the historic trade route for the exchange of not only of goods and services, but also of habits and cultures. Today, about 53% of Tatarstan's population are Muslims, the rest are mostly Russian Orthodox Christians.

Based on previous actions, and based on the use of the Chechen armed forces in conflict zones, Russian fedeation leadership is likely to rely on Chechen Republic armed forces to manage the conflict in Crimea, to make sure that contact between the Russian armed forces with local Muslims is done through other Russian Muslim officials. 

Media Review: The National Interest says Washington is obstructing a political solution in Yemen

Media Review: The National Interest says Washington is obstructing a political solution in Yemen

    Friday, February 03, 2023   No comments

Chad Kunkle wrote an article in the American magazine "The National Interest" in which he said that during the past month, the "War Powers Resolution in Yemen" was withdrawn from voting in the US Senate, and that if the resolution had been approved, it would have ended the direct US military intervention in the Saudi war in Yemen. The bill was withdrawn by its sponsor, Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders.

According to the article, "This step came after President Joe Biden and his administration promised to veto the resolution if it passed, and urged other senators to vote against the bill." This is what the magazine considered "another major setback in efforts to end US involvement in a conflict that has resulted in one of the most devastating and least discussed humanitarian crises of our time."

This war has caused enormous suffering to the Yemeni people, as it has caused civilian casualties, diseases, internal displacement and famine in the population.

Ending US involvement in this conflict has garnered bipartisan support in Congress over the years despite many failed attempts to pass forms of the Yemen War Powers Resolution (YWPR). The move hit many roadblocks, such as a veto of legislation by President Donald Trump, but it also saw some recent successes, as Biden reversed some of the policies pursued by his predecessors, vowing to stop supporting offensive Saudi military operations and remove the Houthis from the terrorist designation list.

However, these transitions have largely failed to address the key issues that have kept this conflict and all the atrocities associated with it running. The United States has remained the main supplier of weapons to Saudi Arabia, and many US-made aircraft and weapons used in offensive operations by the (Saudi) coalition receive maintenance and support from the US military and US contractors long after Biden pledged to end this support. The Biden administration justified its decision to press against the current iteration of the draft "Yemen war power resolution" by claiming that the situation on the ground had changed, with a UN truce managing to reduce violence for most of 2022 and keeping Saudi airstrikes at bay — even after the truce. The armistice ended in October. The US administration fears that passing the draft resolution will harm the peace process by weakening Saudi Arabia's position at the negotiating table, while critics of the move argue that this leaves the door open for Saudi Arabia to launch a new bombing campaign with the help of the United States.

This decision also appears to be a dangerous reversal on the part of Biden and many key foreign policy officials. Senior Biden associates, such as US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, have signed letters to Trump (perhaps he means Biden) supporting past iterations of the "Yemen War Powers Resolution," and Biden's promise to make Saudi Arabia a pariah in his presidential campaign. The move to block the Yemen War Powers Resolution appears to be the latest example of a major shift in the administration's attitude toward the Saudis, which has garnered considerable attention since Biden's visit to the kingdom last July, which was marked by Biden's failure to secure increased oil production by the Saudis. And the rest of OPEC Plus.

Thus, it seems that the US administration is blocking the decision in another attempt to appease the Saudis, preceded by a recommendation from the administration to grant Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman immunity in a lawsuit filed against him by Jamal Khashoggi's fiancée, in addition to continuing arms sales to the kingdom. Meanwhile, Mohammed bin Salman recently hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping and signed several investment deals with Beijing. This was the final step to increase ties between Saudi Arabia and China. It is clear that this evolving relationship, compared to the marked deterioration in US-Saudi relations, is causing concern in Washington.

The author of the article added that while such developments may cause major changes in US policy in the Middle East, the potential results do not justify a worrisome response that includes appeasement, facilitating disasters such as the war in Yemen. The United States has the ability to invest in alternative energy sources, including domestic oil production. A Saudi shift toward China would also incentivize the United States to define its relationship more clearly with Saudi Arabia, disengaging itself from the frustrating and often contradictory status of quasi-alliance that constrains the flexibility of US policy in the region.

He continued: Attempts to distance countries from their natural interests rarely lead to success, and it is reasonable to assert that the world's largest oil exporter seeks closer relations with its largest buyer is a natural development, especially since the Saudi economy is almost entirely dependent on oil exports. In addition, China's emerging interest in Saudi Arabia will be complicated by Beijing's long-standing attachment to Iran.

The writer concludes by saying that the war in Yemen has been a disaster, and the desperate and unnecessary attempts to prevent Saudi Arabia from pursuing alternative relations to America are no reason for the United States to continue aiding destruction by providing direct military assistance. The decision to seek to rein in that potential is worth the potential disruption of long-term policy, especially when that policy is not feasible to US interests and more beneficial alternatives exist.

It is noteworthy that the Saudi Foreign Minister discussed the Yemeni file in Switzerland with the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General of the United Nations to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, and stated that the war in Yemen must end through negotiation.

It is noteworthy that, last October, Sanaa announced that negotiations to extend the UN armistice in Yemen had reached a dead end, after Saudi Arabia refused to pay the salaries of public servants from the revenues of oil and gas produced from the Yemeni governorates, to stop the war and lift the blockade on the country.

A human rights report was issued late last month and documented "the crimes of the US-Saudi aggression during the year 2022", and indicated that the number of victims reached 3,083 deaths and wounded civilians (643 deaths and 2,440 wounded).

It is noteworthy that Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan discussed the Yemeni file in Switzerland with the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General of the United Nations to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, and stated that the war in Yemen must end through negotiation.

It is noteworthy that, last October, Sanaa announced that negotiations to extend the UN armistice in Yemen had reached a dead end, after Saudi Arabia refused to pay the salaries of public servants from the revenues of oil and gas produced from the Yemeni governorates, to stop the war and lift the blockade on the country.

A human rights report was issued late last month and documented "the crimes of the US-Saudi aggression during the year 2022", and indicated that the number of victims reached 3,083 martyrs and wounded civilians (643 martyrs and 2,440 wounded).

Only three Muslims-majority countries, Turkey, Pakistan and Morocco provide some form of military aid to Ukraine

Only three Muslims-majority countries, Turkey, Pakistan and Morocco provide some form of military aid to Ukraine

    Thursday, February 02, 2023   No comments

When will the war in Ukraine be declared a world war?

With almost all NATO member states and EU countries now openly providing weapons to Ukraine, pressure will be buidling on the rest of the world to take clear position on this conflict--though Russia has not openly asked for any military assistance from what it calls "friendly nationa states."

It should be noted also that only three Muslim-majority countries, Turkey, Pakistan and Morocco, provide some form of military aid to Ukraine.

From Europe, Austria, Hungary, Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Moldova still observe conditional neutrality.

The New York Times: Russia's economic growth confirms the limited impact of Western sanctions

The New York Times: Russia's economic growth confirms the limited impact of Western sanctions

    Tuesday, January 31, 2023   No comments

The New York Times published today, Tuesday, a report under the headline "Russia's Economic Growth Indicates Limited Impact of Western Sanctions".

The newspaper said in its report that the resilience of the Russian economy helps support global growth, according to a new report issued by the International Monetary Fund, which indicates that efforts by Western countries to weaken Moscow due to its war in Ukraine appear to be faltering.

In a report, the International Monetary Fund expected Russian production to expand by 0.3% this year and 2.1% next year, in defiance of previous expectations, of a sharp contraction in 2023, amid a set of Western sanctions, according to the newspaper.

Also, the newspaper indicated that a plan coordinated by the United States and Europe to cap the price of Russian oil exports at $60 a barrel is not expected to significantly reduce energy revenues.

"At the current G7 oil price ceiling level, Russian crude oil export volumes are not expected to be significantly affected, with Russian trade continuing to be redirected to non-sanctions countries," the IMF said.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund, in a report, improved its forecast for the performance of the Russian economy for the next two years.

In 2024, the Russian economy will grow by 2.1%, which is 0.6% better than the October forecast for the same period.

A few days ago, a United Nations report showed that the size of the Russian economy shrank by about 3% in 2022, compared to previous expectations of a decline of 15%.

The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, said Saturday's Iran attack was carried out by Israel

The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, said Saturday's Iran attack was carried out by Israel

    Sunday, January 29, 2023   No comments

The Wall Street Journal quoted US officials and informed sources as confirming that Israel carried out Iran's attack on Saturday.

And the newspaper published, citing US officials and others familiar with the matter, that "Israel carried out the raid yesterday, with a drone, on the military defense complex of the Iranian armed forces in Isfahan."

She pointed out that "the United States and Israel are looking for new ways to contain Tehran's nuclear and military ambitions."

The Wall Street Journal stated that "the Israeli army refused to comment on the matter," and linked the attack to the visit of CIA chief William Burns a few days ago to the occupied Palestinian territories.

And the American newspaper recalled what it had quoted from the Israeli Chief of Staff, Halevy, last week, who declared that "Israel and the United States are preparing for the worst."

Earlier today, the Iranian Ministry of Defense announced that it had repelled an attack on one of its centers in Isfahan, in the center of the country, stressing that "the failed attack was carried out using drones, targeting a defense industry complex affiliated with the Ministry of Defense."

And she explained that "one of the drones was shot down by air defenses, and two other planes fell into defensive traps, and they were detonated," and confirmed that "the attack did not cause loss of life, nor did it cause any defect in the equipment and tasks of the ministry's complex."

And the ministry’s statement stated that “on the evening of January 28, about half an hour before midnight, a failed attack was carried out using drones on one of the military complexes of the Ministry of Defense,” and indicated that “the air defenses of the complex shot down one of the drones, while it was surrounded.” Two marches and they exploded."

In turn, the deputy governor of Isfahan, Mohammad Reza Janisari, confirmed, in a televised statement today, that the attack "did not result in injuries," adding that an investigation had been opened to determine its causes.

Video clips filmed by Iranian citizens showed that a small explosion occurred on the roof of one of the buildings adjacent to a main street in Isfahan. It indicates that it is the explosion of the march itself.

Argentina, Brazil reject the German request to send weapons to Ukraine

Argentina, Brazil reject the German request to send weapons to Ukraine

    Sunday, January 29, 2023   No comments

 Argentine President Alberto Fernandez announced today, Sunday, that his country and other countries in Latin America are not considering sending weapons to Ukraine.

Fernandez's remarks came during his joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during his visit to Argentina, in which he said, "Argentina and Latin America will not do that, and they are not considering sending weapons to Ukraine or to another conflict zone."

Earlier, the Brazilian newspaper "Folha" reported, quoting military and government sources, that Brazilian President Luis Inacio (da Silva) also rejected a request from the German government for ammunition for Leopard tanks, in order to maintain neutrality.

According to media reports, the commander of the US Southern Command, General Laura Richardson, said that the United States is working with nine Latin American countries to transfer their Russian weapons to Ukraine in exchange for supplies of American equipment.

Earlier, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz went to Latin America, where he will meet Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva for the first time since assuming the presidency, in addition to a meeting with the presidents of Argentina and Chile.

Schultz's tour began in Argentina, accompanied by about 12 senior business managers, then he visited Chile, and concluded his tour in Brazil, the first economic power in Latin America, to leave on Wednesday.

The visit comes as German companies look for new opportunities abroad after suffering an economic shock from the crisis in Ukraine, and as concern rises due to heavy commercial dependence on China.

Roberto Goulart Menezes, of the Center for International Relations at the University of Brasilia, said, "Germany is one of the most important European Union countries investing in Brazil."

Dmitry Medvedev: the loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war

Dmitry Medvedev: the loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war

    Thursday, January 19, 2023   No comments

While Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, maintains his distance from social media, former president and former prime minister and the likely future president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, uses social media to deliver the kind of thinking that is guiding Russia's military and diplomatic policies and activities. Here is his recent statement:

Tomorrow, at NATO's Ramstein base, the great military leaders will discuss new tactics and strategies, as well as the supply of new heavy weapons and strike systems to Ukraine. And this was right after the forum in Davos, where underdeveloped political party-goers repeated like a mantra: "To achieve peace, Russia must lose."

And it never occurs to any of the poor to draw the following elementary conclusion from this: the loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war. The nuclear powers did not lose major conflicts on which their fate depends.

But this should be obvious to anyone. Even to a Western politician who has retained at least some trace of intelligence.

On January 22, Medvedev added this statement:

Meeting in Ramstein and

the allocation of heavy weapons to Kyiv leaves no doubt that our enemies will indefinitely try to wear us down, or rather, destroy us. And they have enough weapons. If necessary, they will start producing new ones. Therefore, there is no need for illusions. What are the conclusions from this? First, it will be very difficult. Secondly, in the event of a protracted conflict, at some point a new military alliance will form from those countries that the Americans and their pack of castrated dogs got. This has always happened in the history of mankind during long wars. And then the States will finally throw old Europe and the remnants of the unfortunate Ukrainians, and the world will again come to a state of equilibrium.

Unless, of course, it's too late.

On January 28, Medvedev added this commentary on the new developments:

There are no number of fools in the power structures of Europe.

Some Minister of Defense of Italy called the supply of armored vehicles and other weapons to Ukraine as the prevention of a third world war. A rare eccentric with the letter "m".

The neighbors of a gifted minister from an evil misty kingdom with an empire complex went even further. They say that all the weapons that NATO has should be "right now" provided to Kyiv. And fighters, and hundreds of tanks, and long-range missile systems. Like this is the only way to prevent the expansion of Russia and, again, a world war.

Firstly, the protection of Ukraine, which no one needs in Europe, will not save the decrepit Old World from retribution, if something happens. Secondly, if the third world war starts, then, alas, it will not be on tanks and not even on fighters. Then for sure - everything is in ruins.

However, what to expect from an entrepreneur with an incomplete higher education and his stupid neighbors who pumped themselves up during a pandemic right at their workplaces located at 10 Downing Street. Although the spirit of W. Churchill would be pleased with the successors.

On January 31, 2023, Medvedev added this commentary:

Enemy countries do not have the courage to admit that their "hellish" sanctions have failed miserably. Does not work. The vast majority of industrial products and consumer goods were replaced by our own, Russian, and the missing ones - by Asian brands. Parallel imports also work, from which we get the same Western brands, and their owners get nothing. So everything is as always: the Americans earn on a humiliated Europe. Crushed Europe endures and loses money. At the same time, even the IMF predicts economic growth in Russia this year.

It remains only to adopt the rules on the use of their intellectual property. Without any licenses and payment of royalties. This, among other things, will be our retaliatory sanctions on their property rights. For everything from movies to industrial software. Thanks, by the way, to those who have developed various programs for the unlicensed use of their expensive intellectual products. In short, for piracy in personal sanctions mode😄. What, à la guerre comme à la guerre...

...

The "double standard" of the British media... This is how London's lies were promoted before the invasion of Iraq

The "double standard" of the British media... This is how London's lies were promoted before the invasion of Iraq

    Wednesday, January 18, 2023   No comments

The British "Declassified" website talked about the role of the British media in promoting the lies of the British government before the invasion of Iraq.

The site said that the British media repeated the government's lies and fabrications without scrutiny, and became part of the government's propaganda machine, before the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

He pointed out that the former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, provided the British public with false information twenty years ago about the late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's possession of weapons of mass destruction, in order to prove the case of the illegal invasion of Iraq.

He added that Blair was not tried yet, but was honored and given the "Rabat" medal, which is the highest honor in the British Kingdom, pointing out that the journalists who repeated his lies were not tried either, but rather climbed the ladder of the profession to its highest levels.

On the other hand, those who dared to expose the lies of the war, such as the Australian journalist Julian Assange, are now in prison.

According to the site, there were serious investigations into false reports about Iraq in the United States, while this was not the case in Britain, where the press and broadcast media became an advanced part of the government propaganda machine.

Likewise, senior British journalists reported uncritical lies about the British government, often adding new fabrications of their own, according to the site.

He added that the Guardian newspaper, for example, "swallowed" the Blair government's bogus claim that Saddam Hussein's agents were looking for uranium in Africa to buy a nuclear bomb.

Under the headline: "Iraq file: African gangs offer a path to uranium - the nuclear suspicion lies with the Congo and South Africa," the newspaper claimed that it had seen secret documents proving contacts between African militias and Baghdad.

The Observer was "more intelligent and creative on the pro-war case," looking for more interesting angles to prove actual or alleged Saddam Hussein's malevolence, such as a 1,560-word interview with a woman claiming to be a former lover of Saddam Hussein, whom she claimed was With Osama bin Laden as a guest in one of Saddam's palaces, and that Saddam was financing Osama.

In turn, the "Sunday Telegraph" newspaper pumped a huge amount of government propaganda, as it published sensational reports that fueled public anxiety on the eve of the war, according to the site.

On January 19, 2003, the newspaper claimed that UN weapons inspectors "discovered evidence that Saddam Hussein is trying to develop an arsenal of nuclear weapons." Indeed, when the weapons inspectors issued their verdict a few days later, they concluded no such thing.

Meanwhile, critics of the war were marginalized or vilified. The site pointed out that Scott Ritter, the United Nations weapons inspector, has repeatedly questioned the allegations of Britain and the United States about Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, stressing that the importance of his words were downplayed, while the narratives of the attack were reinforced.

About 300 fighters of the AKHMAT-1 riot police of the National Guard of the Chechen Republic left Grozny International Airport to join the war in Ukraine

About 300 fighters of the AKHMAT-1 riot police of the National Guard of the Chechen Republic left Grozny International Airport to join the war in Ukraine

    Sunday, January 08, 2023   No comments

Another video released today showing about 300 fighters of the AKHMAT-1 riot police of the National Guard of the Chechen Republic left Grozny International Airport to join the war in Ukraine.

The correspondent of the Danish public service station, Mathilde Kimer, reveals that the Ukrainian intelligence services asked her to carry out propaganda work for Ukraine, in order to prove that she is not pro-Russian

The correspondent of the Danish public service station, Mathilde Kimer, reveals that the Ukrainian intelligence services asked her to carry out propaganda work for Ukraine, in order to prove that she is not pro-Russian

    Friday, December 30, 2022   No comments

Denmark's leading historian of the war in Ukraine, Matilde Kimer, revealed last week that "the Ukrainian secret service has revoked her permission to work in Ukraine and will not return it, unless she agrees to let the spy agency direct its reporting."

“The proposal was made to her by an officer of the Ukrainian Security Service, the intelligence agency known as the SBU, during a meeting this month in Kyiv, which was also attended by two diplomats from the embassy,” Kimer, the award-winning Moscow correspondent, told Danish public service broadcaster DR. Danish".

Kimer added that Cavalli had told her, by phone from Copenhagen, that "a lot of multiple accusations had been made against her, and there was a lot of talk about random photos from her Facebook profile, primarily the photos taken in Donetsk in 2017."

According to Kimer's Facebook account, "an intelligence officer named Oleg told her that the photos she posted on the social network from the Victory Day parade on May 9 in Donetsk were suspicious, because they showed decorated people and vehicles, which the Ukrainians are preparing." Illegal Soviet propaganda.

Kimer said that when she asked the Danish diplomats how to convince the Ukrainian intelligence service that she was not working on Russian propaganda, the Ukrainian official suggested that Kimer agree to produce a series of "good stories" about the war, based entirely on the video and photos he provides her. State Security Apparatus, and published it on its Facebook page, in order to prove that it was not pro-Russian.

Macron reaffirms his position on giving Russia security “guarantees” in the event of peace negotiations at the end of the war in Ukraine

Macron reaffirms his position on giving Russia security “guarantees” in the event of peace negotiations at the end of the war in Ukraine

    Tuesday, December 20, 2022   No comments

 French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday stuck to his position on giving Russia security "guarantees" if peace negotiations take place at the end of the war in Ukraine.

Some leaders of Eastern European countries criticized Macron more than once, considering that he had exaggerated expectations from Moscow regarding a future settlement of the conflict.

Macron said in an interview recorded on Monday and broadcast on Tuesday evening on the French “TF1” and “LCE” stations, that “Peace Day requires talks. First of all about guarantees to Ukraine, its territorial integrity and long-term security. But also to Russia, given that it will be a party to an armistice and peace treaty.

And the French president added, “Whoever blames me for thinking about such an issue, let him explain to me what he proposes.”

And Macron warned that “what those who refuse to prepare for this matter and work on it are proposing is an all-out war that will include the entire continent,” stressing his rejection of this option.

In early December, Macron faced criticism from Ukraine and some Eastern European countries, as some voices accused him of being overly open to Moscow.

"Is there anyone who wants to provide security guarantees for a terrorist and murderous state?" Secretary General of the National Security Council of Ukraine Oleksiych Danilov said on Twitter.

The French president was also subjected to implicit criticism from the European Union's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell.

Borrell said at the time that the way out of the Ukrainian conflict is by providing “security guarantees to Ukraine,” adding that “with regard to Russia, we will talk about it later.”

However, the French President confirmed in his television interview that his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, never expressed to him his annoyance or the annoyance of his ministers about his statements, and added, “No one party concludes a peace treaty on its own,” and “lasting peace includes the sitting of the concerned parties, and therefore Russia, around the table.”

Macron did not elaborate while on a visit to the Middle East. Today, he is  in Jordan, in connection with the events of the second session of the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership kicks off, at the invitation of the Jordanian King Abdullah II, and in coordination with French President Emmanuel Macron and Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shayaa Al-Sudani, and in their presence.

The French presidency said, "The aim of such a meeting is to bring Iraq's neighbors and partners around the table, in an attempt to move forward by promoting dialogue."

The conference aims, according to the Elysee Palace, to "provide support for Iraq's stability, security and prosperity, and to study the situation in the entire region, given that Iraq is a pivotal country in it."

The meeting is also likely to address common issues, such as climate warming, food security and regional energy cooperation.

On the agenda of Macron, who visited on Monday the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle off the coast of Egypt to celebrate Christmas with the French forces, a meeting with King Abdullah II of Jordan; "An ally in the fight against terrorism," according to Paris.

US-Turkish relations: US will not be selling F 16 fighter jets to Turkey

US-Turkish relations: US will not be selling F 16 fighter jets to Turkey

    Tuesday, December 20, 2022   No comments

Turkish leaders will have to make new choices soon in the light of developments in the region and around the world.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had already threatened that Turkey may turn to countries such as Russia if the US fails to follow through a pledge to deliver F-16 fighter jets.

In July, the White House said that Turkey would be excluded from the more sophisticated F-35 stealth fighter jet program after it purchased the Russian S-400 air defense missile system despite warnings from Western allies.

The Pentagon later confirmed that a process is already underway to move the production of Turkey-made F-35 parts – worth at least $9 billion to Turkish manufacturers – to suppliers in the United States and other countries.

“Unfortunately, Turkey’s decision to purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems renders its continued involvement with the F-35 impossible,” White House spokesperson Stephanie Grisham said in a Wednesday, July 17 statement.

How the West Brought War to Ukraine

How the West Brought War to Ukraine

    Thursday, December 15, 2022   No comments

Recently, a member of the European Parliament from Ireland, Claire Daly, reminded the world of what the West avoids talking about, remembering, or even referring to: NATO’s attack on Libya and the murder of Muammar Gaddafi. The European politician described Libya after NATO's intervention making it a country "torn by conflicts, its economy is ruined, and its population, which was once the richest in Africa, has been dragged into poverty and drowned in it." Immigrants are bought and sold in slave markets. One million people hope for humanitarian aid. This is a country of mass graves and crimes against humanity. This is NATO's legacy, this is NATO's strategy for human rights and democracy,” She concluded.

Here, another essay describing NATO’s role in the current dangerous crisis in Ukraine.

For almost 200 years, starting with the framing of the Monroe Doctrine in 1823, the United States has asserted security claims over virtually the whole Western hemisphere. Any foreign power that places military forces near U.S. territory knows it is crossing a red line. U.S. policy thus embodies a conviction that where a potential opponent places its forces is crucially important. In fact, this conviction is the cornerstone of American foreign and military policy, and its violation is considered reason for war.

Yet when it comes to Russia, the United States and its NATO allies have acted for decades in disregard of this same principle. They have progressively advanced the placement of their military forces toward Russia, even to its borders. They have done this with inadequate attention to, and sometimes blithe disregard for, how Russian leaders might perceive this advance. Had Russia taken equivalent actions with respect to U.S. territory — say, placing its military forces in Canada or Mexico — Washington would have gone to war and explained that war as a defensive response to the military encroachment of a foreign power.

When viewed through this lens, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is seen not as the unbridled expansionism of a malevolent Russian leader but as a violent and destructive reaction to misguided Western policies: an attempt to reestablish a zone around Russia’s western border that is free of offensive threats from the United States and its allies. Having misunderstood why Russia invaded Ukraine, the West is now basing existential decisions on false premises. In doing so, it is deepening the crisis and may be sleepwalking toward nuclear war.

This argument, which I now present in detail, is based on the analyses of a number of scholars, government officials, and military observers, all of whom I introduce and quote from in the course of the presentation. These include John Mearsheimer, Stephen F. Cohen, Richard Sakwa, Gilbert Doctorow, George F. Kennan, Chas Freeman, Douglas Macgregor, and Brennan Deveraux.

...read this essay as on author's medium page.

Kiev: About 13 thousand Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the war; not 100,000

Kiev: About 13 thousand Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the war; not 100,000

    Friday, December 02, 2022   No comments

Contradicting the EU figures that put the estimate to more than 20,000 civilians and 100,000 soldiers have been killed, Ukrainian officials said today that "about 13 thousand Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the war."

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said today, Thursday, that up to 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since Russia's special military operation in Ukraine on February 24.

"We have official estimates from the General Staff that the number of dead ranges between 10,000 and 13,000," Podolyak added, on Ukrainian Channel 24, revealing that the country's president will publish official data "when the time comes."

And when Russian forces were seeking in June to take full control of the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine, Zelensky said that his country was "losing 60 to 100 soldiers a day."

In September, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that "5,937 Russian soldiers have been killed since the start of the conflict."

According to these statements, it is suspected that the two warring parties are underestimating the size of their casualties in order to avoid a negative impact on the morale of their forces.

And the Chief of Staff of the US Army, General Mark Milley, said earlier last month that "more than 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the beginning of the Ukrainian war," noting that "the losses among the Ukrainian forces may be similar."

Yesterday, Thursday, European Commission spokeswoman Dana Spinant announced, at a press conference from Brussels, that the Commission does not intend to apologize to Kiev after publishing information about the killing of 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers during the war.

"There was no need for an apology, we explained the context and reasons (for the statement) on social media," the spokeswoman said, adding: "We are working with Ukraine on common goals."

"According to estimates so far, more than 20,000 civilians and 100,000 soldiers have been killed (in Ukraine)," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday.

Russia loading a strategic missile In the Orenburg region

Russia loading a strategic missile In the Orenburg region

    Saturday, November 19, 2022   No comments

Russia's armed forces just loaded a strategic missile and released the following explanatory note:

In the Orenburg region, work continues on the re-equipment of the Yasnensky formation of the Strategic Missile Forces with the Avangard silo-based missile system

▫️ The infrastructure of the positional area for putting the next missile regiment on combat duty, which includes, in addition to the facilities of the combat launch complex itself, places for preparing duty shifts, carrying out combat duty and resting personnel, has been prepared.

▫️ The rocket is currently being loaded into the silo launcher.

The implementation of the measures planned for 2022 for the rearmament of the Strategic Missile Forces will increase the combat capabilities of the ground component of the strategic nuclear forces in fulfilling the tasks of strategic deterrence.