Syria Reaches Agreement to Integrate SDF into State Institutions

Syria Reaches Agreement to Integrate SDF into State Institutions

    Monday, March 10, 2025   No comments

It seems that the massacres in the coastal region of Syria compelled the governing regime and other factions to work out their differences faster.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), established in October 2015, is a coalition primarily composed of Kurdish fighters, with some Arab and other minority groups, operating in northeastern Syria. The SDF has been a key ally of the United States in the fight against ISIS, receiving significant military and logistical support. The group has also been involved in the establishment of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), which has governed large parts of the region since the Syrian government lost control during the civil war.

The SDF's relationship with the Syrian government has been complex, marked by both conflict and occasional cooperation. The Syrian government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, has long viewed the SDF with suspicion, considering it a separatist movement that threatens Syria's territorial integrity. However, with the decline of ISIS and the shifting geopolitical landscape, including the partial withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria, there has been increasing pressure on both sides to find a political solution.

Summary of the Agreement:

On Monday evening, the Syrian Presidency announced that an agreement had been reached to integrate the SDF into state institutions. The agreement aims to address key issues to ensure the rights of all Syrian citizens and maintain the country's unity. The executive committees are expected to implement the agreement by the end of the current year.

Key Points of the Agreement:

• Ceasefire: A nationwide ceasefire across all Syrian territories.
• Equal Rights: Guaranteeing the rights of all Syrians in state institutions based on merit, regardless of religious or ethnic background.
• Kurdish Rights: Recognizing the Kurdish community as an integral part of Syria, ensuring their constitutional rights and citizenship.
• Political Participation: Ensuring the representation and participation of all Syrians in the political process.
• Institutional Integration: Merging all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria, including border crossings, airports, and oil and gas fields, under state administration.
• Return of Displaced Persons: Ensuring the safe return of all displaced Syrians and their protection by the state.
• Security Cooperation: Supporting the Syrian government in combating remnants of the previous regime and other threats to national security.
• Rejection of Division: Opposing calls for partition, hate speech, and attempts to sow discord among Syrian communities.
• Diplomatic Efforts:
• Earlier reports from informed sources indicated that Western diplomatic efforts and visits were underway to push for an agreement between Damascus and the SDF. These efforts aimed to prevent ISIS from exploiting the power vacuum following the fall of the previous regime or the anticipated U.S. withdrawal.

Previous reported

Last month, media outlets leaked information about a preliminary agreement between the SDF and the new Syrian administration. The leaked agreement outlined the integration of the SDF and security institutions of the Autonomous Administration into the structure of the Syrian army, as well as the reactivation of state civil and service institutions in northern and eastern Syria.

The agreement marks a significant step towards resolving the longstanding conflict between the Syrian government and the SDF. By integrating the SDF into state institutions, the Syrian government aims to strengthen its control over the northeastern region while addressing the rights and representation of the Kurdish community and other minorities. The success of this agreement will depend on the effective implementation of its terms and the continued cooperation of all parties involved.

More background

The recent agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian government, facilitated by US mediation, marks a potentially significant turning point in the Syrian conflict. This preliminary agreement, as outlined in the provided article, aims to cease military operations and foster national reconciliation. However, its implementation faces numerous complexities and uncertainties.

Central to this agreement is the integration of the SDF into Syrian state institutions. This move, as stated by the Syrian presidency, signifies a crucial step towards unifying the country. The agreement addresses several critical issues, including the deployment of Syrian government forces along the border, the resolution of prison issues through joint councils, and the management of educational matters, particularly for students who have studied the Kurdish language. Crucially, the SDF will maintain its responsibility for dealing with the ISIS threat, indicating a continued role in regional security.  

The primary objective of this agreement, according to Kurdish sources, is to halt the ongoing war and facilitate the safe return of displaced persons. The Kurdish sources emphasized the need to stop demographic changes in areas like Afrin, Serekaniye, and Tel Abyad, reflecting a commitment to restoring the pre-conflict demographic balance. Furthermore, the agreement seeks to ensure the inclusion of Kurds and all Syrian components in the political process, promoting a more inclusive and representative governance structure. 

Statements from key figures highlight the significance of this agreement. The SDF spokesperson stressed its preliminary nature and the US's essential role in its formation. The co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Council emphasized that the agreement is a step towards national reconciliation and transitional justice. The Syrian presidency’s announcement of the integration of the SDF into state institutions underscores the government’s commitment to this process.  

However, the situation in northern Syria adds a layer of complexity. Turkey's military buildup in the regions of Tishrin and Qaraqozaq signals a potential escalation, threatening the stability of the region and the implementation of the agreement. This external factor highlights the delicate balance that must be maintained to achieve lasting peace.

The agreement between the SDF and the Syrian government represents a crucial step towards ending the conflict and fostering national reconciliation. However, the agreement's success hinges on overcoming significant challenges, including the implementation of its provisions, managing external pressures, and ensuring the participation of all stakeholders. While the agreement offers a glimmer of hope for a more stable and unified Syria, its long-term impact remains to be seen.

The Escalation of Violence in Syria: A Path to Deepen Syria's fragmentation

The Escalation of Violence in Syria: A Path to Deepen Syria's fragmentation

    Monday, March 10, 2025   No comments

Syria has witnessed its most violent outbreak of conflict since the ousting of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, with over 1,300 deaths reported in just three days. The clashes between forces aligned with Syria’s new government and remnants of Assad’s loyalists have resulted in widespread civilian casualties, particularly affecting the Alawite community, which previously supported the former regime. The intensity of the violence has drawn international concern, as reports of field executions, communal massacres, and forced displacement emerge.

The conflict ignited when HTS-led government forces attempted to arrest what it calls members of the former regime. The attempt was met by armed resistance, which escalated when government brought it more of its armed militias from nearby Idlib, most of whom are not Syrian fighters. While the government aimed to restore order, retaliatory attacks by armed groups have further escalated tensions, leading to mass executions and acts of revenge against Alawite civilians. Human rights organizations, including the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the Syrian Network for Human Rights, have documented atrocities, including systematic killings and the destruction of homes.

Eyewitnesses and video evidence reveal harrowing acts of violence, with reports of militants conducting executions and vowing to "purify" Syria of perceived enemies. Civilians, including elderly residents and families, have been caught in the crossfire, facing persecution irrespective of their allegiance to Assad’s regime. Many Alawites, who have distanced themselves from the former government, continue to suffer the consequences of sectarian retaliation.

Despite Syria’s Ministry of Defense announcing the end of security operations, reports from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights indicate that armed groups continue to commit atrocities against civilians in the coastal regions. Armed factions, some of whom entered towns alongside government forces, have been accused of looting, arson, and indiscriminate violence in areas such as Harisun in Baniyas. Residents from multiple villages in Latakia have pleaded for protection as killings, kidnappings, and destruction persist, highlighting the deteriorating security situation.

Survivors and local witnesses describe an ongoing campaign of ethnic cleansing, with entire villages being targeted. Calls for international intervention and independent investigations have grown louder as displaced civilians report being too afraid to return home. Some refugees have sought shelter in the Russian-operated Hmeimim Airbase, refusing to leave due to ongoing threats from armed groups. The humanitarian crisis is worsening, with severe shortages of food, electricity, and water reported across affected regions, exacerbating the suffering of civilians trapped in the conflict.

Syria’s interim leadership has vowed to hold accountable those responsible for the civilian massacres and has called for national unity. However, the government faces significant challenges in maintaining security, especially as extremist factions continue to exploit the instability. Al-Sharaa’s administration, which emerged from an Islamist insurgency, faces scrutiny over its ability to protect minorities and establish a functioning security apparatus.

The United States has condemned the extremist violence, particularly the involvement of foreign jihadists, and has expressed solidarity with Syria’s diverse religious and ethnic minorities, including Christians, Druze, Alawites, and Kurds. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has urged Syria’s interim authorities to ensure accountability for those responsible for the massacres.

The ongoing bloodshed underscores the fragile nature of Syria’s post-Assad transition and highlights the deep-seated sectarian divisions that continue to fuel violence. Without immediate and effective intervention, Syria risks descending further into chaos, jeopardizing any hopes for stability and peace in the war-torn nation.

Daraa the epicenter of 2011 protest movement against Asad government just started an uprising against the HTS-led regime in Syria

Daraa the epicenter of 2011 protest movement against Asad government just started an uprising against the HTS-led regime in Syria

    Friday, March 07, 2025   No comments

 Massacres against civilians in the countryside of Latakia

Meida correspondents in Syria confirmed today, Friday, that a series of massacres took place in areas on the Syrian coast, quoting local sources that "a group wearing military uniforms and public security entered the village of Al-Mukhtariyya and separated the men from the women and children, and killed the males."

The correspondents stressed that the scene of the massacres was repeated in the town of Al-Haffa and in the village of Al-Qabu, describing the day as "bloody" in the countryside of Latakia.

Earlier in the week, in the south of Syria, protesters took to the street in opposition to the new regime in Syria, which is led by the HTS, a former al-Qaeda group.

The killing of civilians was also confirmed by an NGO, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which reported that security forces “executed” 134 civilians from the Alawite sect to which ousted President Bashar al-Assad belongs, during a large-scale sweep in western Syria.

The director of the observatory, Rami Abdel Rahman, told Agence France-Presse that “134 Alawite civilians, including at least 13 women and five children… were executed by security forces in the areas of Baniyas, Latakia and Jableh.” He pointed out that members of the security forces, including foreigners, stormed homes and summarily executed civilians, especially in the city of Baniyas. This raised the death toll to 229 people since the outbreak of bloody clashes on Thursday. The SOHR has been reporting about Syrian since 2011, and it was seen as anti-Asad regime and pro-rebel by some observers.

Reacting to the massacres, the head of an Alawite representative body issued the following statement:

The Supreme Alawite Islamic Council in Syria and the Diaspora

In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful

In light of the recent developments, and our follow-up of the ongoing escalations

And the number of convoys entering the Syrian coast under the pretext of the remnants of the regime and with the intent to terrorize and kill the Syrian people in general and the Alawite sect in particular, and with evidence, we demand from the Secretary-General of the United Nations, the State of Russia and the international community.

The President and members of the permanent UN Security Council.

Place the Syrian coast and the areas of the Alawite sect under the protection of the United Nations and implement the provisions of Chapter VII of the UN Charter to protect the Alawite sect and the rest of the minorities.

We also address the Sheikh of the Mind of the Druze Monotheists, His Eminence Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri

And we say that with the intensification of the ordeal, we put our hand in your hand, His Eminence Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, and we ask you to support us and lift the injustice from us. We do not support an oppressor, nor do we stand with hands stained with blood. Rather, we stand with truth and justice, and we are ready to hold accountable any criminal who committed a crime against our people, even if he is one of our own.

We appeal to you to stand with us, for you are the people of chivalry and rescue, and the national reference that we trust in this ordeal. Let your position be a support for us, and let your voices be raised with us so that our call reaches every person with a living conscience.

Clashes in Daraa and a sit-in in Sweida

BBC reported that clashes in Daraa ended while the city of Sweida witnessed a massive sit-in against the new administration in Syria, as citizens flocked to the city in response to calls spread on social media.

Protesters in Sweida raised banners of monotheism and banners denouncing the policies of the new government, considering that "the interim government only seeks to cling to positions and does not see it as building a state," according to them.

The protesters gathered in Al-Karama Square to express their rejection of the current situation, demanding a real change in the ruling policies and justice in representing the people, according to calls on social media.

In a parallel development, the "Men of Dignity" movement announced coordination with the Ministry of Interior to activate the role of internal security in the province. The movement explained that special internal security mechanisms have been sent to Sweida, where the province's factions will work with the Interior Ministry to better organize the security situation.

In Daraa, the security operation launched by the Internal Security Forces affiliated with the Military Operations Room against an armed group led by "Mohsen al-Haimed", who was previously supported by the Military Intelligence, ended in the city of al-Sanamayn in the Daraa countryside, after violent clashes that lasted 24 hours.

With the end of the operation, the Internal Security Forces announced control over the city, while the area remains in a state of continuous tension amid tight security measures.

The final death toll from the clashes reached 15 dead, including 8 members of the Internal Security Forces, 6 local gunmen, in addition to the killing of a civilian and the injury of a number of civilians, including women and children.

Forces affiliated with the transitional authority said that they surrounded the house in which al-Haimed was holed up, amid information that he fled to an unknown location with a number of his members.

The clashes erupted after negotiations failed and al-Hamid and his group refused to surrender, leading to fighting that killed eight members of the Internal Security Forces and six local gunmen, in addition to the killing of a civilian and the injury of a number of civilians, including women and children, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The clashes began on Wednesday in the city of al-Sanamayn in the northern countryside of the governorate between security forces and an armed group linked to the former Military Security, and continued until Thursday, amid a state of panic among civilians living in the areas of the clashes.

According to estimates, the number of al-Hamid's group is 200 armed men, and it was previously affiliated with the Military Security Service and the security forces of the Bashar al-Assad regime, according to media reports.

The Internal Security Forces are carrying out a large-scale campaign in the city with the aim of "searching for wanted persons and weapons," and the Observatory says that the campaign came the day after clashes between the security forces and the same group, which led to the killing of three gunmen and the injury of three civilians, including a child, according to the Observatory.

The official page of Daraa Governorate on Telegram quoted a source in the Internal Security as saying that the security forces are continuing military operations "to cleanse the area of ​​armed elements."

Military reinforcements arrived in the city in the morning to raid gatherings of armed groups outside the law, according to what the governorate's page quoted from the official in the Internal Security, Abdul Razzaq Al-Khatib.

He added that the clashes are still at their peak in some buildings in the southwestern neighborhood of the city. Daraa Governorate was the cradle of popular protests against the authorities in Damascus in 2011. Regime forces regained control of it in July 2018, but it has witnessed cases of security tension in recent years.

Since the new authorities took control of power in Damascus, clashes and shooting incidents have been recorded in a number of areas, and security officials accuse some militants loyal to the former regime of being behind them.

Imposing and controlling security throughout Syria is one of the most prominent challenges facing the head of the transitional phase, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, after a devastating conflict that began 13 years ago and its parties have branched out.

Assassinations and liquidations on the rise

Assassinations and physical liquidations have continued in Syria since the beginning of 2025, bringing the number of victims in various Syrian governorates to 343, including 334 men, 7 women, and 2 children, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

On Thursday, a new assassination incident occurred in the city of Aleppo, where three unknown gunmen riding a motorcycle shot a person directly inside his office in the Salah al-Din neighborhood, killing him instantly, before fleeing.

According to information obtained by the Observatory, the victim was accused of dealing with the former regime.

In the Homs countryside, a similar incident occurred in the village of Aqrabiyah, where an armed group stormed a citizen's house, wearing uniforms similar to those of the Internal Security Forces, and took the owner of the house to an unknown destination. His body was found hours later on the Samaqiyat road, with five gunshot wounds.

These operations come amid escalating security tensions in several areas, raising fears among residents of a new wave of assassinations targeting specific figures in mysterious circumstances.

At the same time, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights announced on Wednesday the killing of at least four civilians during a security campaign launched by security forces in the city of Latakia in western Syria, and the killing of seven others in the south of the country during two days of clashes between gunmen and security forces.

The official media quoted security sources as saying that security forces launched a campaign on Tuesday in the Daatour neighborhood in the city of Latakia, after its members were subjected to an armed ambush "set up by groups of remnants of Assad's militias", which resulted in the death of two of them.

The Observatory counted the killing of at least four civilians in the neighborhood, including two construction workers in a building under construction and two school guards, noting that cautious calm has returned to the area after the arrest of a number of residents and wanted persons.

The General Security announced, for its part, the arrest of a number of people involved in the attack, and the neutralization of others without mentioning their number.

The Ministry of Interior quoted the Director of the General Security Department in Latakia Governorate, Lieutenant Colonel Mustafa Knefati, as saying, "After receiving a report about what happened, a special security force was prepared and gathered related information, and reached one of the members of the criminal cell and raided his hideout immediately."

He added that "the criminal cell threw bombs at security patrols, which resulted in the injury of a number of members." He said, "Our forces responded immediately to the sources of fire, and were able to arrest several people involved in these criminal acts, in addition to neutralizing a number of others."

The city of Latakia, which is inhabited by a large percentage of the Alawite sect, witnessed security tensions in the first days after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's rule, which have recently subsided.

Attacks are still being recorded at security forces' checkpoints from time to time, sometimes carried out by gunmen loyal to Assad, or former members of the Syrian army, according to the observatory.

The New Regime's Narrative

The HTS government in Syria claims that its military operation in in eastern Syria is targeting members of the former regime (fulul al-nizam al-ba'id), as reported by Aljazeera, Qatar's TV network that supported HTS since the start of the violence in 2011.

Qatari Emir, in Tehran, met Iranian officials: Importance of dialogue to resolve regional conflicts maintain regional stability

Qatari Emir, in Tehran, met Iranian officials: Importance of dialogue to resolve regional conflicts maintain regional stability

    Wednesday, February 19, 2025   No comments

Although the public statements seemed to emphasize the importance of the ceasefire in Gaza and need to rebuild Gaza and prevent its people from forced displacement, one must read between the lines to understand the role of Qatar in bridging the gap between Iranian leaders and the new leaders in Syria as being their top priority. The reason being Qatari deep connections to the armed group, HTS, which now control most of Syria. It is likely that Qatar will play a role in "normalizing the relationship to the extent that the Shia minority in Syria and the religious site revered by Shia Muslims are respected and protect. In return, Syrian leaders can expect Iran's help in helping speed up the rebuilding of state institutions that would be able to preserve Syria's territorial integrity. The coming days will determine how successful the Qataris in achieving this balancing act.

 

The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, confirmed - in a press conference with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian - that he is visiting Tehran at a time when the region is witnessing challenges that require consultation and coordination, stressing that the best way to resolve conflicts is through constructive dialogue.

The Emir of Qatar said that he held talks with the Iranian President that included many areas of cooperation, stressing the importance of exploring potential opportunities for cooperation.

He explained that the recent visit of the Iranian President to the State of Qatar contributed to developing relations between the two countries, adding that dialogues and understandings support stability in the region and enhance the prosperity of its countries and peoples.

The Emir of Qatar stressed - in the joint press conference - the need to adhere to the ceasefire in Gaza and continue the flow of aid, and he also spoke with President Pezeshkian about the importance of the success of the comprehensive political process in Syria.

Maintaining Stability

In turn, the Iranian president said that he held consultations with the Emir of Qatar on the current developments in the region.

Pezeshkian thanked Doha for its efforts in the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners, stressing that during this meeting he emphasized the unity of Syrian territory and the right of the Syrian people to self-determination.

The Iranian president said that he believes that the countries of the region can work to achieve stability and security in the region, adding that strengthening and expanding relations in all fields with the countries of the region is one of Tehran's basic policies.

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad arrived in the capital Tehran on Wednesday on a visit accompanied by Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani and an official delegation.

The Emir of Qatar met with President Pezeshkian and senior Iranian officials to discuss bilateral relations, regional developments, and ways to maintain the security and stability of the region, according to the Qatar News Agency (QNA).

The Qatari agency stated that this visit "is of great interest in light of the current circumstances and developments in the region, and what they require in terms of intensifying consultations at the highest levels, and coordinating visions and positions towards various challenges."

Iran's President Pezeshkian in a press conference with the Emir of Qatar in Tehran: We respect Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity

There is a convergence of views between Iran and our friend Qatar on regional issues.. The Islamic Republic believes that the countries of the region are capable of achieving security and stability in the region.. We respect the sovereignty of Syria and stressed the necessity of the participation of all segments of the Syrian people in determining its fate.. We appreciate Qatar's efforts in mediating to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza.. We believe that all governments and peoples must do their utmost to defend the rights of the Palestinian people

Are the fighting in the north and the resisting in the south signs of disintegration of Syria?

Are the fighting in the north and the resisting in the south signs of disintegration of Syria?

    Wednesday, January 08, 2025   No comments

Weeks since the fall of the Baath regime in Syria, one main armed faction, the most organized and powerful group—HTS, took control of the country. The group’s leader has been acting as the country’s leader and governments that supported the armed rebellion are accepting his role as the de facto leader. However, instead of starting a process of reconciliation, the new rulers are placing themselves in a positions that would allow them to control the future of the country. This approach appears to be pushing other groups to do the same: hold tight to whatever power they secured in the past 14 years and leverage such power to secure a significant role in the future. This trend may result in the breakdown of Syrian into at least three regions, similar to what happened in Libya. These are some of the signs that point to that possibility.

Violent clashes between Turkey-supported "National Army" and US-supported "SDF"

Newsmedia correspondents in Syria reported on Wednesday that a Turkish drone targeted a SDF vehicle in the countryside of Ayn al-Arab "Kobani" in the eastern countryside of Aleppo.

The report detailed that the vicinity of the Qarqozak Bridge, located south of the city of Ayn al-Arab "Kobani", was subjected to Turkish artillery shelling, while the factions of the "National Army", affiliated with Turkey, bombed the SDF sites at the bridge with missiles. A Turkish drone targeted a SDF rocket launcher in the village of Sakul in the countryside of Manbij, east of Aleppo.

In the same context, the media center of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) confirmed that "Turkish warplanes bombed Tishrin Dam and its surroundings with a number of raids, coinciding with attacks carried out by the mercenary factions affiliated with Turkey on villages north of Tishrin Dam and southeast of Manbij, where violent clashes are taking place between the forces of the Manbij Military Council and the mercenaries."

In Kobani, Turkish drones bombed a civilian car in the village of "Kirk-Girik", in addition to artillery shelling on the village of "Aslanki" south of the city.

According to the center, the danger of the Tishrin Dam collapsing is increasing, as the Turkish state bears any disaster that may befall the dam and other Syrian regions as a result of the Turkish air and artillery attacks that reached their peak during the morning hours today, and which continue until now.

The center confirmed that "the forces of the Manbij Military Council destroyed two vehicles loaded with Dushka weapons belonging to the mercenaries of the Turkish occupation north of Tishrin Dam during the ongoing clashes there."

The Turkish drone targeted a "Qasd" car in an airstrike in the vicinity of the city of Al-Malikiyah, northeast of Al-Hasakah, in the far northeast of Syria.

In Southern Syria, armed groups' leaders say they are not convinced to hand over weapons

The spokesman for the Southern Operations Room, which controls Daraa province, Nassim Abu Ara, said that the room’s fighters are not convinced by the idea of dissolving the armed groups announced by the new Syrian administration on December 25 of last year, when the new rulers confirmed that they had reached an agreement with the armed groups regarding their dissolution and integration under the Ministry of Defense.

In an interview with Agence France-Presse, Abu Ara confirmed that the fighters are hesitant to disarm and disband their ranks as ordered by the new rulers, noting that he and those with him are "an organized force in the south, possessing heavy weapons and equipment, and led by officers who defected from the army of the former regime," suggesting that they be merged as a military body with the Ministry of Defense. Abu Ara added that the "Southern Operations Room" led by local leader Ahmed al-Awda includes thousands of men who have no Islamic affiliation, and sources close to the group indicated that al-Awda enjoys good relations with Russia, as well as Jordan and the Emirates.

Israeli government committee: Turkey-backed Syria may pose greater threat than Iran

Israeli government committee: Turkey-backed Syria may pose greater threat than Iran

    Tuesday, January 07, 2025   No comments

An Israeli government committee said Monday that Turkey could pose a greater threat to Israel than Iran in Syria if it backs a hostile “Sunni Islamist” force in Damascus.

Ankara has emerged as a major beneficiary of the collapse of Bashar Assad’s government in Syria last month, following an offensive by rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other Turkish-backed Syrian groups.

Since then, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pledged all forms of support, including military and security assistance, to help the new Syrian caretaker government establish public order in the country under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Julani.

The “Committee to Evaluate the Defense Establishment Budget and Balance of Power,” headed by former National Security Council head Yaakov Nagel, is commonly referred to in Hebrew media as the Nagel Committee or the Nagel Committee.

The committee was established in 2023, before the outbreak of the Israeli war on Gaza, with the aim of making recommendations to the Defense Ministry on potential areas of conflict that Israel could face in the coming years.

The committee said that “the origins of the rebels and their leaders,” some of whom were previously associated with groups such as Al-Qaeda, should not be ignored.

For this reason, we must take into account that Israel may face a new threat emerging in Syria, which in some respects may be no less dangerous than the previous threat. This threat may take the form of a radical Sunni force that also refuses to recognize the existence of Israel,” the committee said.

Moreover, since the Sunni rebels will exercise political power by virtue of their central control in Syria, they may pose a greater threat than the Iranian threat, which has been limited by Israel’s continued actions, as well as the restrictions imposed on Iran by the sovereign Syrian state.

The committee warned that the problem could intensify if the Syrian force effectively becomes a proxy for Turkey, “as part of Turkey’s ambition to restore the Ottoman Empire to its former glory.”

We must prepare for war with Türkiye

Israeli media reported that a government committee recommended in its report to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, yesterday, Monday, to prepare for a possible war with Turkey, in light of growing concerns in Tel Aviv about Ankara’s alliance with the new administration in Damascus after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

The Jerusalem Post quoted the committee’s report as proposing to increase the defense budget by up to NIS 15 billion ($4.1 billion) annually over the next five years, to ensure that Israeli forces are equipped to deal with the challenges posed by Turkey, as well as other regional threats.

The committee also recommended several measures to prepare for a possible confrontation with Turkey:

Advanced weapons: Acquiring additional F-15 fighter jets, refueling aircraft, drones and satellites to enhance Israel’s ability to carry out long-range strikes.

Air defense systems: Enhancing multi-layered air defense capabilities, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow and the newly operational laser defense system.

Border security: Building a fortified security barrier along the Jordan Valley, which would represent a major shift in Israel’s defense strategy despite the potential diplomatic fallout with Jordan.

The Israeli Prime Minister's Office said in a statement on Monday that Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich had received the Nagel Committee's recommendations.

According to the statement, Netanyahu said, "We are in the midst of a fundamental change in the situation in the Middle East. We have known for years that Iran poses the greatest threat to us, both directly and through its proxies."

He continued, "Of course, we were keen to hit this axis hard. But we have seen the reality that: First, Iran is still there, and second, additional forces have entered the field, and we always need to be prepared for what may come."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had warned - a few weeks before the Syrian armed opposition overthrew the regime of Bashar al-Assad - that Israeli military moves in Syria could pose a direct threat to Turkey's security on its southern border.