CIA: Iran capable of producing a nuclear bomb in a week

CIA: Iran capable of producing a nuclear bomb in a week

    Tuesday, October 08, 2024   No comments

CIA Director William Burns said that Iran is capable of producing a nuclear bomb within a week, but there is no evidence that it has decided to do so.

NBC quoted Burns - during a security conference in Georgia - as saying that Iran has made progress in its nuclear program by accumulating depleted uranium to levels that allow for the manufacture of nuclear weapons.

As a result, Burns continued, Iran may be able to quickly obtain enough fissile material to make an atomic bomb if it chooses to do so, and there will be less time for the outside world to respond.

He added that there is no evidence that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reversed his decision taken in late 2003 to suspend the nuclear weapons program, and said that American intelligence agencies believe that Iran has suspended its program in accordance with Khamenei's declaration last year.

The US intelligence chief explained that Tehran has developed "conception methods" by building a missile arsenal, noting that Iran has become closer to producing a nuclear bomb since the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018.

In response to recent rumors that an earthquake in Semnan province near the capital Tehran was related to a nuclear test, the Nour News website, which is close to the Iranian National Security Council, stated that "the suspicious rumors spread by foreign media about the first Iranian nuclear test are completely false and contradict Iran's nuclear and defense doctrine."

Burns' statements and talk of a nuclear test came amid Israeli threats to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities in response to Tehran targeting Israel with dozens of missiles after the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforoushan, deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, in Israeli raids on Beirut, and the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil.

The CIA confirms similar statements by US officials that essentially concluded that building a nuclear weapons is now in the hands of Iranian leaders. In July of this year, the head of the State Department, Blinken, also stated that Iran was a week to a week and half from the breakout stage for developing nuclear weapons. Other Western officials confirmed that US assessment is accurate. Given the timeline, this means that the decision for building a nuclear weapon is entirely in the hands of Iranian leaders. The developments and threats since July 2024 can only push them to building a weapon. Alternatively, and absent in Western assessment of Iran capabilities, is whether Iranian leaders have thought of using depleted uranium in their rockets, especially after reports that Israel may have used depleted uranium bombs in its assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforoushan in Beirut last month.

Also, if Western assessment about Iran's nuclear capabalities is true, restoring the 2015 nuclear deal that Trump withdrew from in 2028 becomes moot. The starting point for any new deal will start with the Iran preserving what it has achieved and what the West can offer to limit increased nuclear activities.

Media review: Understanding Blinken's assessment of when Iran will produce a nuclear bomb and Haniyeh's assassination

Media review: Understanding Blinken's assessment of when Iran will produce a nuclear bomb and Haniyeh's assassination

    Friday, August 16, 2024   No comments

What do media reports and political statements about state-sanctioned assassinations and the war in Gaza mean in the big picture?

 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced, Friday July 19th, that Iran is capable of producing fissile material for a nuclear bomb "within a week or two."

Blinken said during a forum in Colorado (west) that "the current situation is not good. Iran, because of the end of the nuclear agreement, instead of being at least a year away from being able to produce fissile material for a nuclear bomb, is now probably a week or two away from being able to do so."

He explained that Tehran "has not developed a weapon yet, but we are watching this matter closely, of course."

Blinken reiterated that "a week or two" is the estimated time for Iran to be able to produce this fissile material for the purpose of making a nuclear bomb.

He said, "What we have seen in recent weeks and months is that Iran is moving forward with this" nuclear program, reiterating the United States' goal of Tehran never having a nuclear weapon, and "preferring the diplomatic path" to achieve this.

CNN, which reported the same news explained breakout time as being "the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon – “is now probably one or two weeks” as Tehran has continued to develop its nuclear program."

The US government statement was made about a month ago, July 18. If that assessment is correct, not only did Iran has more than two weeks to reach that goal, but also was given more reasons to achieve that goal when Israel carried out an attack inside Iran on 31 July 2024, that killed Hamas leader, Ismael Haniyeh who was attending the inauguration of the new president. Blinken assessment is significant for many reasons, including these two important reasons.

If US assessment is true, and given the recent development, by Wednesday August 14th, Iran would have had two weeks since the assassination, above and beyond the two weeks between Blinken's statement and the assassination, which is more than the time it needs to reach the stage per US government.  This means that, now, Iran is past the breakout time, and would have enough "weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon". 

If Iran does not produce "weapons grade material" then US assessment is flawed about Iran's ability or wrong about its intention to do so. 

In both cases, this recent development is bad news for Western governments because their next news cycle will be to address Iran with the reality of it possessing the nuclear material or having it and choosing not to build a nuclear weapons. In both cases, the nuclear threat would have moved past it being a threat, since it will be either a reality or a non-threat.

In the light of the nuclear development matter, Iran's delayed retaliation against Israel for the assassination of a Palestinian political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, could be the most strategic response. Iran would have used the timeline floated by high-ranking US official about the breakout time to either make it irrelevant or to create more uncertainty about Iran's capabilities.

The delay froze any conversation about Iran's nuclear program and perhaps allowed the Iranian leaders to add the nuclear option just in case Israel decides to retaliate against Iran's retaliation. Iran does not have to announce that they have a nuclear weapon at this point; Iran could adopt Israel’s strategic ambiguity about its nuclear capability and that would produce the same deterring effects as announcing that it has a nuclear weapon.

Taken in a broader context, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, in effect, was the best thing that could have happened for Iran for many reasons.

First, Iran now has the legal and moral ground to act on the principle of self-defense.

Second, by holding official religious prayers for the dead Sunni leader, Iran’s brand of Islam, Shia Islam, is no longer a fringe belief, as it has been portrayed by Saudi Salafists. The fact that Hamas leaders agreed to have two formal prayers, one in Tehran and one in Qatar, is remarkable in the view of experts on Sunni-Shia divide.

Third, Iran’s menu of retaliatory options has become more expansive. Iran could strike inside the 1948 border of Israel, since the attack on Haniyeh took place in Tehran. But Iran could hit targets and military concentrations in Gaza, which will highlight the above stated connections, and refocus attention on the primary objective that most governments around the world want to achieve: a ceasefire in Gaza War. Also, Iran could use a surgical strike against an Israeli leader or a military installation. Lastly, Iran’s leaders could forgo a military tactical strike in favor of a strategic decision to adopt a different nuclear posture and use the assassination as a justification for developing a last resort self-defense nuclear option, something it has been unable to do in the past.

When considered from these advantage points, it is clear that assassination is the least strategic statecraft tool, as it tends to diminish the standing and reputation of the state that rely on assassinations and bolster the strategic position of the state whose sovereignty has been violated--long-term. For these reasons, this event may end up being one of the most significant turning points of the century. 

  

U.S. has resumed indirect talks with Iran - CNN reported

U.S. has resumed indirect talks with Iran - CNN reported

    Sunday, June 18, 2023   No comments

The U.S. administration has secretly resumed indirect talks with Iran to curb its nuclear program and release U.S. prisoners, CNN writes, citing sources. 

The talks began last December in New York and have since continued in Oman. 

According to U.S. officials, the U.S. goal is to reach a "political truce."

In return, Tehran is demanding the unfreezing of billions of dollars of Iranian assets abroad.

Khamenei: There is no harm in concluding an agreement with the West and not heading towards building a nuclear weapon, not because of our fear of enemies, but rather because of our faith

Khamenei: There is no harm in concluding an agreement with the West and not heading towards building a nuclear weapon, not because of our fear of enemies, but rather because of our faith

    Monday, June 12, 2023   No comments

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday it is possible to reach an agreement with the West over Tehran's nuclear activities if the country's nuclear infrastructure remains intact, at a time of disagreement between Iran and the United States over reviving the 2015 nuclear deal.

Indirect talks between Tehran and Washington to revive the deal with six major powers hit an impasse in September, with both sides accusing each other of making unreasonable demands.

Khamenei's cautious approval comes days after both Tehran and Washington denied a report that they were close to an interim agreement under which Iran would curb its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief.

"There is nothing wrong with the agreement (with the West), but the infrastructure of our nuclear activities should not be touched," Khamenei was quoted as saying by state media.

The 2015 agreement limited Iran's uranium enrichment activity and made it difficult for Tehran to develop nuclear weapons, in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions.

In 2018, then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement and re-imposed sanctions that crippled the Iranian economy, prompting Tehran to move gradually to not abide by the provisions of the agreement stipulated. This renewed US, European and Israeli fears that Iran might seek to obtain an atomic bomb.

Khamenei said, repeating his country's official position, that the Islamic Republic has never sought to build a nuclear bomb.

And he added, “Talking about Tehran’s nuclear weapons is a lie, and they (the West) know that. We don't want to build nuclear weapons because of our religious faith, otherwise they wouldn't have been able to stop it."

Khamenei, who has the supreme say in all state affairs including the nuclear program, added that Iran's Atomic Energy Organization should continue to work with the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency "within a framework of guarantees".

However, Khamenei called on the Iranian authorities "not to bow to the exaggerated and wrong demands of the International Atomic Energy Agency," adding that a law passed by the Iranian parliament in 2020 must be respected.

Under the law, Tehran suspends IAEA inspections of Iranian nuclear sites and ramps up uranium enrichment if sanctions are not lifted.

At the end of May, the UN body reported “progress” in cooperation with Iran, while noting that the Islamic Republic had significantly increased its stockpile of enriched uranium in recent months.

In addition, the International Atomic Energy Agency decided to close the file on the presence of nuclear materials in one of the three undeclared sites, after this led to strained relations between the two parties for a long time.

On Sunday, Khamenei urged those responsible for the nuclear program to "not succumb to pressure... baseless allegations," without providing further details.

He said, "There is no problem in signing an agreement with the agency, but the infrastructure of the Iranian nuclear industry should not be harmed."

These statements come at a time when press reports reported indirect contacts between Iran and the United States to resume negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement that was concluded in 2015, and the United States withdrew from it during the era of former President Donald Trump in 2018.

This agreement was aimed at restricting Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions.

And Monday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reiterated that President Joe Biden's administration will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear bomb, which Iran denies seeking.

In the context, Khamenei said, “We do not want to reach nuclear weapons on the basis of our Islamic principles. Otherwise, they would not have been able to prevent us from obtaining this weapon, just as they have not been able to stop our nuclear developments so far.

"This is a good law... it must be respected and not violated when giving access to (the International Atomic Energy Agency) sites and information," Khamenei said.

Last month, the IAEA reported limited progress on issues at issue with Iran, including the reinstallation of some monitoring equipment originally installed under the 2015 deal and ordered removed by Tehran last year.

UN nuke watchdog chief in Iran: Any military attack on a nuclear facility is illegal

UN nuke watchdog chief in Iran: Any military attack on a nuclear facility is illegal

    Sunday, March 05, 2023   No comments

Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi says any military attack on nuclear facilities is outlawed, responding to US and Israeli threats to target those in Iran.

Grossi made the remarks in Tehran Saturday, in a joint news conference with head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami who urged the IAEA to help build trust.

The Biden administration has drawn closer to Israel in recent weeks, conducting large-scale joint military exercises with the regime.

“There are two separate issues in this regard. First, attacks on nuclear power plants have unfortunately become common, and this is due to the war in Ukraine. Second, these attacks have been condemned during the Agency’s public conferences. So I think that the attack on nuclear facilities is totally condemned and illegal,” Grossi said.

He is visiting Tehran after Western reports claimed that IAEA inspectors had found 84% enriched uranium in Iran – an allegation Tehran has rejected.

Eslami told reporters that the Islamic Republic is enriching uranium up to 60% fissile purity.

Grossi said he had “constructive discussions” with Iranian officials that could pave the way for the revival of a landmark 2015 agreement to bring the US back to compliance and remove sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

“By having a constructive discussion, like we are having now, and having good agreements, like I am sure we are going to have, we are going to be paving the way for important agreements,” he said.

Eslami called for the remaining signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), namely France, Britain, Germany along with China and Russia, to fulfill their obligations.

“Three European and some other countries are just focusing on Iran’s JCPOA obligations,” he said. “They too have obligations that they need to adhere to.”

Eslami said, “We came to an arrangement (with Grossi) to define our cooperation within the framework of the safeguards.”

He called on the UN nuclear agency to avoid being swayed by those who aim to hinder cooperation between the two sides.

Reactions

Today, Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized the statements of the Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, in which he asserted that carrying out an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities was "illegal." Netanyahu said that Grossi was a worthy person, but he made inappropriate statements.

Grossi said during his visit to Tehran on Saturday - in response to a journalist's question about the threats of Tel Aviv and Washington to attack Iranian nuclear facilities if they consider that diplomatic means to prevent Tehran from acquiring an atomic bomb have reached a dead end - that "any military attack on nuclear facilities is prohibited." ".

Netanyahu said - at the beginning of the weekly cabinet meeting - that "Israel will continue to defend itself in the face of those who call for its annihilation and prepare for the slaughter of its citizens."

He added that his country "continues to work to confront Iran, through discussions and actions it is conducting around the clock."

The International Atomic Energy Agency issued yesterday from Vienna a joint statement with the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency at the end of Grossi's visit to Tehran.

The statement stated that Iran is ready to continue cooperation with the agency regarding 3 sites that the agency said were undeclared and where traces of uranium were found.

Iran has also indicated its willingness to provide more information and access to it in order to address the remaining safeguards issues.

The joint statement added that Iran will allow the IAEA, when needed, to carry out more verification and supervision activities in nuclear facilities, provided that the method for this is agreed upon during a technical meeting to be held in Tehran soon.

Grossi's visit came as negotiations aimed at reviving the agreement on the Iranian nuclear file concluded in 2015 - officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - reached a dead end.

It also coincides with the start of US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's tour of the Middle East today, Sunday, including Egypt, Jordan and Israel, during which he will hold talks on the Iranian nuclear program.

Biden: the Iran Nuclear Deal is dead, but we're not gonna announce it

Biden: the Iran Nuclear Deal is dead, but we're not gonna announce it

    Wednesday, December 21, 2022   No comments

 A video has emerged of Joe Biden declaring the peaceful nuclear energy deal with Iran "dead" even as talks continue.

The US president made the comments to some woman who claims is Iranian at a campaign rally with fellow Democrat congressman Mike Levin in Oceanside, California on November 4, at a time when protests were going on in Iran with support from Washington.

"President Biden, can you please announce that JCPOA is dead? Can you just announce that?" asks one woman. Biden replied "no", prompting the woman to ask "why not?"

"A lot of reasons. It is dead, but we're not gonna announce it," Biden told her. "Long story, but we're gonna make sure..."