Will the US War on Iran, Aimed at Regime Change in Tehran, Result in Regime Change in Jordan and the GCC?

Will the US War on Iran, Aimed at Regime Change in Tehran, Result in Regime Change in Jordan and the GCC?

    Thursday, July 23, 2026   No comments

In the annals of modern geopolitical irony, few developments are as stark as the current trajectory of the US war on Iran. Initially championed by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu with overt calls for the Iranian people to overthrow their government, the conflict has undergone a profound and dangerous shift. The stated objective is no longer regime change in Tehran, but rather the forced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities.

To achieve this, the United States is launching continuous attacks from military bases embedded within the territories of Jordan and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. In doing so, Washington has inadvertently placed its most vulnerable allies—non-representative monarchies with long-standing grievances among their own populations—directly in the crosshairs. Now, Iran is skillfully exploiting this dynamic, driving a wedge between these regimes and their people, and raising the very real specter of regime change in Amman, Kuwait City, and beyond.

The Sovereignty Paradox: Iran’s "Hearts and Minds" Offensive

Tehran’s strategy has evolved beyond mere military retaliation; it has launched a sophisticated psychological and information warfare campaign directed squarely at the Arab street. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued direct, impassioned statements to the peoples of Jordan and Kuwait, reframing Iran’s strikes not as violations of national sovereignty, but as legitimate acts of self-defense against an occupying force.

In a recent statement addressed to the "honorable and noble people of Jordan," the IRGC justified its lightning strikes against US bases on Jordanian soil—which reportedly destroyed a THAAD radar, a Patriot air defense system, and set ablaze fuel storage and helicopter maintenance hangars. The message was unequivocal:

"What is a US military base inside another country? It is a place where Americans, and anyone they choose, can enter and leave without the oversight of your border authorities... Order there is enforced by the US military police, not yours. Crimes committed there are judged by American judges, not your own... Therefore, it is the United States, not us, that has violated your territorial integrity and sovereignty."

To anchor this argument in raw emotional resonance, the IRGC invoked the tragedy of Minab, stating:

 "Yesterday, the grieving people of Minab buried the remaining body parts of their schoolchildren... 168 students who were martyred on the first day of this war in an attack carried out by the child-killing US military. It is our legal, religious, and rational right to target the aggressor against our country and the killer of our children wherever it launches its attacks from."

A parallel message was delivered to Kuwait, where the IRGC claimed drone strikes on a large US military equipment depot, a Patriot system, and an MQ-9 drone hangar at Ali al-Salem Air Base, alongside troop housing at Camp Udairi (Camp Buehring). Once again, the narrative was carefully calibrated: Iran respects Kuwait’s sovereignty; it is the unchecked US military footprint that violates it.

The Jordanian Powder Keg

Nowhere is this dynamic more volatile than in Jordan. The Hashemite Kingdom’s government has long been perceived by its populace as helpless to alter US policy, particularly regarding Israeli violence against Palestinians. This impotence has severely weakened the regime’s legitimacy, a fact exacerbated by the demographic reality that roughly 65% of Jordan’s population has Palestinian heritage or direct connections to Palestine.

The disconnect between the Jordanian street and the palace was laid bare following recent Israeli provocations. When Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, alongside Knesset members and settlers, stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque under Israeli police protection, the Jordanian Foreign Ministry issued a stern condemnation, calling it a "blatant violation" of the mosque’s historic and legal status. For the average Jordanian, verbal condemnations ring hollow while US military assets in their country continue to facilitate a broader regional war, and while their government remains unable to protect Islamic holy sites from desecration. By hosting US forces that Iran now actively targets, the Jordanian monarchy is increasingly viewed not as a protector of national sovereignty, but as a complicit facilitator of foreign aggression.

The GCC Dilemma

The GCC states face a similar, if not more complex, vulnerability. Countries like Kuwait and Bahrain host significant Shia communities and populations in the GCC generally are deeply, historically sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. The presence of US bases has always been a quiet source of domestic tension, managed through a combination of economic patronage and political suppression.

Iran’s messaging directly punctures this fragile social contract. By framing US bases as extraterritorial colonies where "American law prevails, not your national law," Tehran is handing local opposition groups a powerful nationalist and religious narrative. If US bases are the launchpads for attacks on Iran, and Iran retaliates against those bases, the resulting collateral damage, economic disruption, and perception of humiliation will inevitably be directed at the monarchs who permitted the bases to exist in the first place.

The Crumbling US Domestic Front

This geopolitical boomerang effect is being accelerated by a rapid collapse in US domestic support for the war. President Trump, who once boasted of unwavering backing from his base, is now facing a severe political reckoning.

According to a POLITICO / Public First poll published on July 22, 2026, support for the war on Iran has fallen sharply among Trump’s core MAGA supporters. Just over a third now believe the economic price of the war is justified—a precipitous 13-point drop from 50 percent in May. Another 37 percent of self-identified MAGA voters stated they would back continued US involvement only if costs stop rising, while around one-fifth said the US should end the war no matter the costs. Opposition is even deeper among Trump voters outside the MAGA bloc.

The primary catalyst for this disillusionment is economic pain and mounting casualties. With gas prices having climbed to over $4 per gallon since Trump returned to office, 57 percent of MAGA voters and 63 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters directly blame the war.

The human cost is also becoming impossible to white-wash. At least 18 US soldiers have been killed since the start of the war, with wounded personnel surpassing 500. Just days ago, Trump attended a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base for four US soldiers killed in Iranian attacks: three in a missile strike on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, and a fourth at Erbil Air Base in Iraq. Right before the ceremony, Trump warned that Iran would "pay a big price," but the rhetoric increasingly rings hollow against the backdrop of American coffins.

Behind closed doors, the playbook of endless escalation has been replaced by White House panic. A source close to the administration told POLITICO that the government is at a "maximum level of frustration," with senior figures accepting that "the victory Trump wants cannot be won because the public will not back the escalation required. We've got more dead Americans and a politically impossible situation." With Trump’s approval ratings hovering near the lowest levels of his political career, the Republican Party faces the very real risk of losing its House majority and possibly the Senate in the upcoming November midterms.

The Irony of Hegemony

The United States entered this conflict with the maximalist goal of regime change in Iran, openly encouraging the Iranian people to rise up. The mechanics of modern warfare and the realities of regional geography have turned that logic on its head. By relying on the territories of non-representative, deeply unpopular monarchies to wage war, the US has transformed those regimes into strategic liabilities.

Iran, far from being isolated, has seized the narrative high ground. By positioning itself as the defender of regional sovereignty against American imperialism, Tehran is successfully weaponizing the legitimate grievances of the Jordanian and GCC publics. If the war continues to drag on, exacting a heavy toll in American lives, regional infrastructure, and economic stability, the ultimate irony may be realized: the US war intended to topple the Islamic Republic could instead become the catalyst that brings down the very monarchies Washington relies upon to project its power in the Middle East.

Are the fighting in the north and the resisting in the south signs of disintegration of Syria?

Are the fighting in the north and the resisting in the south signs of disintegration of Syria?

    Wednesday, January 08, 2025   No comments

Weeks since the fall of the Baath regime in Syria, one main armed faction, the most organized and powerful group—HTS, took control of the country. The group’s leader has been acting as the country’s leader and governments that supported the armed rebellion are accepting his role as the de facto leader. However, instead of starting a process of reconciliation, the new rulers are placing themselves in a positions that would allow them to control the future of the country. This approach appears to be pushing other groups to do the same: hold tight to whatever power they secured in the past 14 years and leverage such power to secure a significant role in the future. This trend may result in the breakdown of Syrian into at least three regions, similar to what happened in Libya. These are some of the signs that point to that possibility.

Violent clashes between Turkey-supported "National Army" and US-supported "SDF"

Newsmedia correspondents in Syria reported on Wednesday that a Turkish drone targeted a SDF vehicle in the countryside of Ayn al-Arab "Kobani" in the eastern countryside of Aleppo.

The report detailed that the vicinity of the Qarqozak Bridge, located south of the city of Ayn al-Arab "Kobani", was subjected to Turkish artillery shelling, while the factions of the "National Army", affiliated with Turkey, bombed the SDF sites at the bridge with missiles. A Turkish drone targeted a SDF rocket launcher in the village of Sakul in the countryside of Manbij, east of Aleppo.

In the same context, the media center of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) confirmed that "Turkish warplanes bombed Tishrin Dam and its surroundings with a number of raids, coinciding with attacks carried out by the mercenary factions affiliated with Turkey on villages north of Tishrin Dam and southeast of Manbij, where violent clashes are taking place between the forces of the Manbij Military Council and the mercenaries."

In Kobani, Turkish drones bombed a civilian car in the village of "Kirk-Girik", in addition to artillery shelling on the village of "Aslanki" south of the city.

According to the center, the danger of the Tishrin Dam collapsing is increasing, as the Turkish state bears any disaster that may befall the dam and other Syrian regions as a result of the Turkish air and artillery attacks that reached their peak during the morning hours today, and which continue until now.

The center confirmed that "the forces of the Manbij Military Council destroyed two vehicles loaded with Dushka weapons belonging to the mercenaries of the Turkish occupation north of Tishrin Dam during the ongoing clashes there."

The Turkish drone targeted a "Qasd" car in an airstrike in the vicinity of the city of Al-Malikiyah, northeast of Al-Hasakah, in the far northeast of Syria.

In Southern Syria, armed groups' leaders say they are not convinced to hand over weapons

The spokesman for the Southern Operations Room, which controls Daraa province, Nassim Abu Ara, said that the room’s fighters are not convinced by the idea of dissolving the armed groups announced by the new Syrian administration on December 25 of last year, when the new rulers confirmed that they had reached an agreement with the armed groups regarding their dissolution and integration under the Ministry of Defense.

In an interview with Agence France-Presse, Abu Ara confirmed that the fighters are hesitant to disarm and disband their ranks as ordered by the new rulers, noting that he and those with him are "an organized force in the south, possessing heavy weapons and equipment, and led by officers who defected from the army of the former regime," suggesting that they be merged as a military body with the Ministry of Defense. Abu Ara added that the "Southern Operations Room" led by local leader Ahmed al-Awda includes thousands of men who have no Islamic affiliation, and sources close to the group indicated that al-Awda enjoys good relations with Russia, as well as Jordan and the Emirates.

Israeli media: Israeli politicians should thank Jordan; Jordan summons Iran's ambassador to protest

Israeli media: Israeli politicians should thank Jordan; Jordan summons Iran's ambassador to protest

    Monday, April 15, 2024   No comments

Some Israeli media outlets want Jordan to be thanked for standing with Israel during Iran's retaliatory strike for the attack on its diplomatic facilities in Syria. These recent developments are forcing many regional and global actors to make tough decisions and the effects of those decisions may not be felt or known immediately, testifying to the power of these events as transformative ones. 

"While Netanyahu shows nothing but ingratitude towards Biden, the Iranian attack produced the most significant show of support in the history of Israeli-U.S. relations. It also proves the importance of a regional alliance of moderates, including the Palestinians." said the daily Haaretz.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, the Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Iranian ambassador in Amman and asked his country to stop “questioning” Jordan’s positions on the Palestinian issue after the Kingdom announced the interception of “flying objects” during the Iranian attack on Israel.

Foreign Minister Ayman Al-Safadi said, “Today (Sunday) the ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador and sent him a clear message that these insults to Jordan must stop, and this questioning of Jordan’s positions must stop.”

He added, "Unfortunately, there were offensive statements (against Jordan) by the Iranian media, including the Iranian official news agency."

Al-Safadi explained that "Iran's problem is with Israel and not with Jordan, and neither Iran nor anyone else can outbid what Jordan is doing, what it offers, and what it has provided historically for Palestine."

He stressed that "if this danger was coming from Israel, Jordan would take the same action it did, and this is a position we confirm clearly and frankly, and we will not allow anyone to endanger the security of Jordan and the Jordanians."

Jordan confirmed on Sunday that it had intercepted "flying objects" that violated its airspace on Saturday night, coinciding with the missile and drone attack launched by Iran on Israel.

Video clips showed the interception of objects in the Kingdom's airspace during the night, at a time when the remains of at least one missile fell in the Marj Al-Hamam area in the Jordanian capital. Users of social media platforms in the Kingdom also shared video clips showing the wreckage of another missile in the Al-Hasa area in the Tafila Governorate in the south of the Kingdom.

Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel on Saturday night, in the first attack launched by Iran directly from its territory on Israel, and not through groups loyal to it. It came in response to a missile attack that targeted the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus at the beginning of this April.

Related, French President Emmanuel Macron revealed on Monday that his country used its base in Jordan to intercept Iranian air targets during the attack on Israel, at the request of the Jordanian authorities.

The French President said, in a television interview, that his country's forces stationed in Jordan intercepted Iranian drones and missiles that were heading to Israeli sites, explaining that the French planes were launched from a French base that has been on Jordanian territory for years.

Yesterday, Sunday, the Jordanian government announced that it was “dealing with some flying objects” that entered the country’s airspace, in reference to the drones and missiles that Iran launched against “Israel.”

Israeli media described the Jordanian move as “historic cooperation,” adding that “for the first time, military cooperation between the two parties is taking place publicly.”

Iranian official: Jordan opening its airspace to Israel against Iran is a strategic mistake

Mehr News Agency quoted the Deputy Chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Iranian Shura Council, Shahriar Heydari, as saying, “The Jordanian government’s opening of its country’s airspace to the Zionists to confront Iranian attacks is a strategic mistake.”

Haidari added, "At least Jordan could have remained silent or even supported Iran's legitimate defense against the Zionist entity."

These statements come after the Jordanian Foreign Ministry announced - last Sunday - that it had summoned the Iranian ambassador to Amman, and asked his country to stop “questioning” Jordan’s positions on the Palestinian issue after the Kingdom announced the interception of “flying objects” during the Iranian attack on Israel.

Foreign Minister Ayman Al-Safadi said at the time, “Unfortunately, there were offensive statements (against Jordan) by the Iranian media, including the Iranian official news agency.”

He added, "Iran's problem is with Israel, not with Jordan. Neither Iran nor anyone else can outbid what Jordan is doing, what it is offering, and what it has provided historically for Palestine."

He stressed that "if this danger was coming from Israel, Jordan would take the same action it did, and this is a position we confirm clearly and frankly, and we will not allow anyone to endanger the security of Jordan and the Jordanians."

 The decision by the rulers of Jordan to be involved in this conflict may further increase division among Jordanians, many of whom either sympathize with Palestinians or are Palestinians themselves, as the kingdom is home to one of the largest displaced Palestinian communities in the world.

Queen Rania: Dropping aid is not an alternative to opening the crossings, and what is happening is systematic action targeting children

Queen Rania: Dropping aid is not an alternative to opening the crossings, and what is happening is systematic action targeting children

    Tuesday, March 12, 2024   No comments

Queen Rania said in an interview with CNN  that “as much as October 7 was shocking to Israel, it does not have the right to commit one atrocity after another against the Palestinians.” 

It should be noted that, just yesterday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that he was "appalled" by conflict continuing in Gaza despite the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

The Queen added that Israel witnessed one of the 7th of October, just as the Palestinians witnessed 156 of the seventh of October.

“They go through it every day,” she said, “and before that they lived through 50 years of occupation, restrictions on movement, control over every aspect of their lives, and humiliation.”

Queen Rania Al Abdullah continued in her statements: “If I were to address the Israeli public, I would say that if you want peace and security, you must address this great injustice on your doorstep... There are no shortcuts.”

She also pointed out that it is not a coincidence that we are witnessing one of the most violent episodes of conflict under one of the most rigid and racist regimes in the history of Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu said that his policy is based on the principle of "divide and rule."

She continued: “Even before October 7, a record number of settlement expansions had been recorded... Israel is also allowed to violate international law; as long as its allies do not demand that it bear responsibility, its sense of immunity will increase. For years, Israel has been talking about Peace, but it sentenced him to death through the settlements.”

Queen Rania: Israel commits atrocities under the guise of self-defense

Queen Rania: Israel commits atrocities under the guise of self-defense

    Wednesday, October 25, 2023   No comments

Queen Rania Al-Abdullah of Jordan expressed the Arab world's shock and disappointment at the world's "blatant double standards" and "deafening silence" in the face of the ongoing Israeli war on the Gaza Strip.

She confirmed, in a live interview with journalist Christiane Amanpour on CNN yesterday evening, Tuesday, that despite the prevailing narrative in Western media, “this conflict did not begin on the seventh of October.”

Most networks cover the story under the headline “Israel is at war,” she said, but for the Palestinians on the other side of the separation wall and the other side of the barbed wire, the war has never left. This is a 75-year-old story, a story of death and displacement of the Palestinian people.

She added - during the interview - that the novel neglected to highlight that nuclear-armed regional superpower that occupies, persecutes and commits documented daily crimes against the Palestinians.

She pointed out that Palestinian mothers were forced to write their children's names on their hands because of the high probability of them being bombed to death and their bodies turning into corpses and body parts.

She stressed that the rules of engagement must apply to everyone, noting that Israel commits brutal acts under the guise of self-defense.

She said, "6 thousand civilians have been martyred so far, 2,400 children. How can this be considered self-defense? We see massacres on a large scale using high-precision weapons. So over the past two weeks, we have seen indiscriminate bombing of Gaza. Entire families have been exterminated, and residential neighborhoods have been leveled." On the ground, targeting hospitals, schools, churches, mosques, medical workers, journalists, and United Nations aid workers. How is this considered self-defense?!”

Complicit West

Queen Rania pointed out that for many in the region, the Western world is complicit in this war through the support and cover it gives to Israel.

She said, "This is the first time in modern history that we are witnessing such human suffering, and the world is not calling for a ceasefire."

Speaking about what the Palestinian people are suffering from, she said, “There are more than 500 checkpoints spread throughout the West Bank,” stressing that Israel is violating at least 30 UN resolutions demanding that it alone work to withdraw from the territories occupied in 1967, and stop settlement and the separation wall. and human rights violations.

She noted that Israel has been classified as an “apartheid regime” by Israeli and international human rights organizations.

She considered that Israel's allies were doing it no favors by providing blind support to it. “Accelerating and expanding the scope of providing lethal weapons to Israel will only lead to the expansion of this conflict. It will only prolong and deepen the suffering.”

Duality of standards

In criticizing the role of the media in covering the current conflict, Queen Rania pointed to the double standards of interlocutors in the West who ask those representing the Palestinian side to issue immediate condemnations.

She also spoke about the suppression of expressions of solidarity with the Palestinians in Western democracies, noting that, "When people gather in support of Israel, they are exercising their right to assemble. But when they gather for the sake of Palestine, they are considered sympathizers with terrorists or anti-Semites."

"Freedom of expression is a universal value, except when Palestine is mentioned," she said.

Amman Consultative Meeting Statement: For the exit of illegal foreign forces from Syria

Amman Consultative Meeting Statement: For the exit of illegal foreign forces from Syria

    Monday, May 01, 2023   No comments

Summary:

- Cooperation between Damascus, the concerned countries, and the United Nations in developing a comprehensive strategy to combat terrorism in all its forms and organizations.

- The need for illegal foreign forces to leave Syrian soil.

- The need to deliver humanitarian and medical aid to the Syrian people.

- Working on ending the presence of armed and terrorist groups on Syrian soil.

- Cooperation of #Syria, #Jordan and #Iraq to locate and identify the sources of drug production and smuggling methods.

- Provide appropriate conditions in #Syria for the voluntary and safe return of refugees.

________________

Review of the meeting:

The final statement of the consultative meeting of the foreign ministers of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, with the Syrian Foreign Minister, Faisal Al-Miqdad, held in the Jordanian capital, Amman, affirmed the priority of ending the Syrian crisis and all the suffering it caused to the Syrian people.

The statement stressed the need to end the negative repercussions of the crisis, regionally and internationally, through "a political solution that preserves Syria's unity, cohesion and sovereignty, meets the aspirations of its people, rids it of terrorism, and contributes to strengthening the appropriate conditions for the voluntary and safe return of refugees."

The statement called for a political solution to the crisis to lead to "the exit of all illegal foreign forces from it, to achieve national reconciliation, and to restore Syria's security, stability, health and role."

The statement called for the delivery of humanitarian and medical aid that contributes to meeting the life needs of all those who need it among the Syrian people, in all their places of residence, stressing that it is a necessity that all efforts must be combined to meet, in cooperation and coordination between the Syrian government and the relevant United Nations bodies, and in accordance with the decisions relevant United Nations.

The ministers participating in the consultative meeting welcomed the Syrian government's decision to open the Bab al-Salama and al-Rai crossings for the United Nations to deliver humanitarian and medical aid, after the earthquake that struck Syria on February 6.

The priority of the return of the displaced Syrians

The statement touched on the voluntary and safe return of Syrian refugees to their country, stressing that it is a top priority and the necessary steps must be taken to start implementing it immediately.

He also called for strengthening cooperation between the Syrian government and countries hosting refugees, and coordination with the relevant United Nations bodies, to organize voluntary and safe returns for refugees and end their suffering, according to specific procedures and a clear time frame, provided that the Syrian government begins by identifying the necessary needs to improve public services provided in areas of refugee return.

The statement called for intensified work with the international community and the United Nations to accelerate the implementation of early recovery projects for Syria, in a way that contributes to stabilization, and that steps be taken, as appropriate, to resolve the issue of the internally displaced, including the issue of the Rukban camp.

The statement referred to cooperation between the Syrian government and the Jordanian government, in coordination with the relevant United Nations bodies, in organizing a voluntary return of about a thousand Syrian refugees in Jordan.

The need to end the existence of various terrorist organizations

The meeting statement stressed the need for cooperation between the Syrian government, the concerned countries and the United Nations, in developing a comprehensive strategy to enhance security and combat terrorism in all its forms and organizations, and to end the presence of terrorist organizations in the Syrian territories, and neutralize their ability to threaten regional and international security.

In addition to affirming work to support Syria and its institutions in any legitimate efforts to achieve "extending its control over its lands, imposing the rule of law, and ending the presence of armed and terrorist groups on its lands," calling for stopping external interference in Syrian internal affairs, and for establishing effective coordination mechanisms between the military and security agencies. Syria and its counterparts in neighboring countries.

The statement called for work to resume the work of the Constitutional Committee, as soon as possible, in the context of political steps aimed at achieving comprehensive national reconciliation.

The meeting discussed the humanitarian aspect, and the steps required to achieve progress in efforts to address it, in a way that will directly affect the Syrian people, in addition to a number of security and political issues.

The foreign ministers also agreed with their Syrian counterpart on the agenda of the talks, which will continue according to a timetable to be agreed upon, according to the statement, and on the formation of a technical team at the level of experts, which will follow up on the outcomes of this meeting and determine the next steps.

The Jordanian Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, and his Syrian counterpart discussed efforts to launch an Arab leadership role to reach a political solution to the Syrian crisis and bilateral relations prior to the Amman Consultative Meeting.