Houthi Precision Strikes Signal a Protracted, Low-Cost War of Attrition for Saudi Arabia

Houthi Precision Strikes Signal a Protracted, Low-Cost War of Attrition for Saudi Arabia

    Friday, August 21, 2026   No comments

A recent video broadcast by the Houthi-aligned Al-Masirah media network, circulated via its official Telegram channel, showcases what the Sanaa government claims are deadly precision strikes against Saudi-led coalition forces and their allied Yemeni factions. The footage, featuring coordinated launches of unmanned aerial vehicles and ballistic missiles, is more than mere propaganda. It serves as a calculated strategic message, underscoring a stark reality for Riyadh: the Houthis have refined a doctrine of asymmetric warfare designed to sustain a long war "on the cheap."

The released footage highlights the targeting of troop concentrations, weapons depots, and strategic military infrastructure. Over the past several years, the Sanaa government has progressively shifted from basic guerrilla tactics to employing sophisticated precision-strike technologies. These media releases are carefully curated to project operational competence, demonstrating an ability to coordinate complex attacks and penetrate heavily defended airspace. By publicly showcasing these capabilities, the Houthis aim to challenge the narrative of coalition air superiority, boost domestic morale, and signal resilience to external adversaries.

The most alarming aspect of this evolving capability for Saudi Arabia is the profound economic asymmetry of the conflict. The Houthis have mastered the deployment of relatively inexpensive, often Iranian-supplied, drone and missile technology. A typical attack drone can cost between twenty thousand and fifty thousand dollars to produce. In stark contrast, Gulf countries must expend approximately four million dollars per Patriot interceptor missile just to neutralize these low-cost threats.

This cost disparity creates a severe economic attrition dynamic. Even if Saudi air defenses successfully intercept the vast majority of incoming threats, the financial burden of sustaining such a high-tech shield over years is staggering. The Houthis, operating with a fraction of the budget of a petro-state, can afford to launch sustained volleys. They understand that each interception drains millions from the Saudi defense treasury, while the attackers absorb only a fraction of that cost. This turns the very act of defense into a financial vulnerability for Riyadh.

This reality presents a formidable strategic challenge for Saudi Arabia. Despite deploying advanced air defense networks, including Patriot and THAAD systems, the Kingdom has historically struggled to completely deter the onslaught of cross-border attacks. The Houthis' ability to maintain this pressure indicates that they are well-trained, logistically entrenched, and prepared for a protracted conflict.

Furthermore, these persistent strikes complicate Saudi Arabia’s broader geopolitical objectives. Riyadh has actively sought a diplomatic off-ramp from the Yemen conflict to focus on its ambitious Vision 2030 economic diversification plans. However, low-cost Houthi military actions continue to threaten border security, disrupt regional economic stability, and risk drawing the Kingdom back into full-scale escalation. While open hostilities have seen periods of managed de-escalation, the underlying military threat remains a potent lever for the Sanaa government.

The latest video release from the Al-Masirah network is a clear demonstration of tactical patience and strategic foresight. It signals that the Houthis possess the asymmetric tools necessary to wage a long war of attrition without breaking their financial capacity. For Saudi Arabia, this underscores the limitations of a purely military solution. Countering an adversary that weaponizes cost asymmetry requires not only the development of advanced, low-cost defense innovations, such as directed energy weapons, but also a renewed, urgent push toward a comprehensive and sustainable diplomatic resolution in Yemen.

A New "Sunni Axis" and the Search for a Post-American Security Umbrella

A New "Sunni Axis" and the Search for a Post-American Security Umbrella

    Friday, August 07, 2026   No comments

 The Mecca Pact

In a landmark event following prayers at the Great Mosque of Mecca, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif formalized a trilateral defense agreement. This pact arrives at a critical geopolitical juncture, as the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran has fundamentally altered the strategic calculus of the Middle East. The conflict has not only destabilized the region but has also cast severe doubts on Washington's long-term security guarantees, prompting traditional US allies to seek alternative, indigenous security architectures.

The Subjectivity of "Defense" and "Legitimacy"

The formation of this alliance raises immediate questions: Is this newly forged "defensive" pact directed against Iran, or is it a hedge against another regional power—perhaps even Israel? To understand the nature of this alliance, one must first examine how "defensive" interventions and state "legitimacy" have been historically interpreted by the pact's signatories.

State narratives in the Middle East are highly subjective and heavily dictated by geopolitical convenience. For instance, Saudi Arabia launched its devastating war in Yemen under the pretext of "restoring the legitimate government" after Ho

uthi rebels took over the capital, Sana'a. Yet, this narrative clashes starkly with the actions of both Riyadh and Ankara in Syria. In Damascus, the Saudi and Turkish governments actively participated in the overthrow of the internationally recognized, "legitimate" government, throwing their weight behind rebel factions led by Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, a figure with historical ties to al-Qaeda). Today, the rebel government in Syria is increasingly recognized and legitimized, while the Houthi authority in Yemen—which achieved a nearly identical military feat by capturing the capital—remains in pariah status. This glaring double standard reveals that "legitimacy" and "defense" are not objective legal terms in regional politics, but flexible instruments used to justify intervention against perceived adversaries while supporting identical tactics when aligned with strategic interests.

The "Sunni Axis" and the Nuclear Umbrella

Given this fluid approach to regional security, the trilateral pact strongly resembles the very "Sunni axis" that Israeli strategists have long warned against. The most telling aspect of this new alignment is the inclusion of Pakistan—the only Muslim-majority nation to possess nuclear weapons.

For decades, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have relied implicitly on the United States' conventional and nuclear umbrella. However, recent escalations have shattered this illusion. The US security apparatus failed to protect Gulf infrastructure from Iranian-backed proxy attacks, and more pressingly, Gulf leaders are increasingly convinced that Washington would not risk its own security to protect them from a nuclear-armed Israel. In this new reality, Pakistan’s inclusion provides a crucial strategic asset: an independent, regional "Islamic nuclear umbrella." By integrating Islamabad into their defense matrix, Riyadh and Ankara are effectively insulating themselves against both Iranian retaliation and the unchecked military dominance of Israel.

A Pivot Away from Western Protection

This trilateral defense pact represents a profound strategic pivot for Gulf nations, born out of a deep-seated loss of faith in Western protection. The realization that American security guarantees are conditional and often unreliable has forced Saudi Arabia and Turkey to look inward and toward regional partners. Turkey brings formidable military industry and geopolitical weight, while Pakistan brings strategic depth, manpower, and nuclear deterrence. Together, they form a triad capable of projecting power independent of Western oversight.

Iran’s Warning and the Post-Abraham Accords Era

Tehran is acutely aware of this shifting paradigm. Responding to the Mecca agreement, Iranian MP Ebrahim Rezaei issued a stark reminder of the region's realities, stating that a "paper agreement" with Turkey and Pakistan will not guarantee Saudi security. Rezaei noted that years of "one-sided nursing" from the Americans failed to protect Riyadh, urging the Saudis to reform their policies rather than "beg for security from others."

Iran understands that the underlying driver of this pact is the Gulf’s loss of faith in Washington. Ultimately, the Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish trilateral is much more than a mutual defense treaty; it is a declaration of strategic autonomy. It signals a decisive step toward a regional security arrangement that operates entirely without Israel and serves as a direct repudiation of the US-brokered Abraham Accords. As the Middle East fractures under the weight of war and shifting alliances, the Gulf is quietly building its own fortress—one defined not by Western guarantees, but by regional, nuclear-backed deterrence.

Erratic Diplomacy, Market Manipulation, and Fabricated Narratives Are Eroding US Credibility in the Gulf

Erratic Diplomacy, Market Manipulation, and Fabricated Narratives Are Eroding US Credibility in the Gulf

    Sunday, August 02, 2026   No comments

The global reputation of the United States is facing a pronounced decline, driven by growing international skepticism toward statements emanating from the White House. Nowhere is this erosion of trust more palpable than in the Middle East, where a recurring pattern of perceived market manipulation and diplomatic fabrication has left traditional allies deeply uneasy. At the center of this storm is a cycle of escalating threats and abrupt cancellations regarding Iran, revealing a troubling absence of coherent strategic direction.

The mechanism of this volatility has become increasingly predictable. Recently, US officials deliberately released information indicating that the United States was preparing to launch a wide-scale attack on Iran’s power and energy infrastructure. Such leaks inevitably trigger immediate spikes in global oil prices and financial market volatility. However, just before the opening of major trading markets, the narrative abruptly shifts. The President takes to social media to announce the cancellation of the attacks, often justifying the reversal with unsubstantiated claims of sudden diplomatic progress.

The absurdity of this pattern reached a new peak with a recent Truth Social post by President Trump, in which he claimed the cancellation was a direct result of Iranian capitulation. Trump wrote:

"The U.S.A. is locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II. Despite this, we have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran's nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed... to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL."

This narrative was swiftly and categorically dismantled by reality. Iranian officials explicitly denied the claim, stating plainly that Iran had made no such request for the US to halt an attack. The notion that a nation under threat of unprecedented military action would simultaneously beg for its cancellation while magically conceding to the total opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the abandonment of its nuclear program stretches credulity to its breaking point. It exposed the claim not as a diplomatic breakthrough, but as a convenient fiction designed to mask a pre-determined market manipulation.

Attempting to bolster this fabricated narrative, the administration further claimed that regional leaders had jointly requested the de-escalation, highlighting a phone call between President Trump and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. However, this portrayal was also contradicted by the very allies the administration claimed to be heeding. Saudi media outlets, including Asharq Al-Awsat, reported that the phone call between the Crown Prince and the President actually occurred after Trump had already made the decision to postpone the strike. As the report explicitly noted, "The call comes after Trump announced the postponement of a military strike that was scheduled against Iran" ("ويأتي الاتصال بعد إعلان ترمب تأجيل ضربة عسكرية كانت مقررة ضد إيران").

This chronological discrepancy exposes the administration’s narrative as a retroactive justification designed to manufacture a diplomatic victory out of thin air.

For geopolitical analysts and regional observers, this incident is not an isolated anomaly; it is part of a deeply entrenched pattern. It has led many to conclude that there is no overarching, long-term strategy guiding the US leader’s foreign policy—only impulsive reactions. This "reaction-only" approach, coupled with the invention of fictional diplomatic pleas from adversaries, is generating profound anxiety among US Gulf allies.

The stakes for these nations are existential. Gulf states, whose extraction-based economies are already facing severe structural stress and the looming threat of total collapse, are being drawn into a "war of choice." Yet, there is no quick fix or viable exit strategy for what is rapidly turning into a strategic failure. The nervousness in regional capitals is palpable; allies are being asked to bear the geopolitical and economic brunt of a policy that appears to be improvised daily, driven by financial market optics and domestic political posturing rather than genuine regional stability.

Ultimately, the cumulative effect of fabricating narratives, leveraging geopolitical tensions to manipulate oil and financial markets, and inventing diplomatic concessions from adversaries is a severe degradation of American credibility. When a global superpower is perceived as manufacturing crises to control market openings, only to walk them back with retroactive, easily debunked claims, its alliances inevitably fracture. For the Gulf states, the message is becoming increasingly clear: the US security umbrella is growing dangerously unpredictable, forcing regional actors to question the viability of relying on a partner whose actions are dictated by reaction and fabrication rather than reason and strategy.

Saudi Arabia’s New Naval Alliance Masks an Old War and Risks Global Catastrophe

Saudi Arabia’s New Naval Alliance Masks an Old War and Risks Global Catastrophe

    Thursday, July 30, 2026   No comments

The announcement from Riyadh on July 30, 2026, of a 14-nation "multinational defensive naval alliance" is being sold to the international community as a necessary measure to protect global maritime trade. However, a closer look at the geopolitical realities on the ground reveals a familiar, dangerous playbook. This repeated scenario is clearly designed to provide political cover for Saudi Arabia to launch a wider military offensive against the Yemen government in Sanaa.

Far from securing the waterways, this initiative is highly unlikely to stop the Houthis or successfully open the strait. Instead, if this militarization drags on, it will be catastrophic for the global economy and will ultimately isolate the 14 countries that have signed on to support this Saudi initiative.

The Ghost of the 2015 Coalition

To understand the current maneuver, one must look at the recent past. More than ten years ago, in 2015, Saudi Arabia announced a coalition of 10 Muslim states with a stated mission to overthrow the Sanaa government and restore its own allied government, which was operating first out of Riyadh and later from Aden.

The reality of that war, however, was starkly different from the diplomatic optics. During that period, it was just Saudi Arabia and the UAE who actually conducted the war on the ground and in the air. The broader coalition largely stayed on the sidelines, and the military campaign went nowhere, resulting in a protracted stalemate and a devastating humanitarian crisis.

Today, Riyadh is attempting to recycle this strategy under a new facade. The new coalition boasts a different stated mission—protecting transit in the Red Sea—but the underlying objective remains the same: to build a multinational shield behind which Saudi Arabia can escalate its conflict with Sanaa.

A Chokepoint Turned Crisis Zone

According to the founding charter announced in Riyadh, the alliance will focus on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden. While the 14 founding members—including regional heavyweights like Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, and Jordan—claim the alliance is "purely defensive," the practical effect will be the exact opposite.

Rather than securing the region, this massive naval buildup is likely to increase the cost of transit in the Red Sea and turn that tight, vital waterway into a permanent crisis point. The presence of a large, Saudi-led multinational naval force will inevitably be viewed by the Sanaa government and its allies as a direct blockade and a prelude to invasion. This will spook global economic systems, driving up insurance premiums, forcing shipping reroutes, and injecting massive volatility into global energy and supply chain markets.

If this standoff takes longer than a few weeks, the resulting disruption will be catastrophic for the global economy, which is already struggling to absorb the shocks of ongoing US-Iran tensions and broader Middle Eastern instability.

Diplomatic Isolation for the 14

By joining this coalition, the 14 founding nations are inadvertently signing up for a diplomatic disaster. The international community is increasingly wary of endless Middle Eastern conflicts. By providing political and military cover for a Saudi initiative to start a wider war with the Sanaa government, these 14 countries risk severe diplomatic isolation.

They will be viewed not as defenders of global trade, but as complicit actors in a regional land grab and an aggressive expansion of the Yemen conflict. Nations like Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt, which have their own complex geopolitical balancing acts, will find their international standing severely damaged if this naval alliance is used as a Trojan horse for bombing campaigns against Sanaa.

The Internal Saudi Tinderbox

Perhaps the most dangerous aspect of this new military venture is how it intersects with Saudi Arabia’s fragile internal landscape. Given the current global and regional context, this round of Saudi violence can easily backfire and destabilize the Kingdom.

Saudi Arabia is currently undergoing radical internal changes. The kingdom, traditionally a very conservative society, is rapidly abandoning aspects of its historical culture in a aggressive push for economic gains and foreign investment under Vision 2030. This rapid social engineering has created underlying friction within Saudi society.

Furthermore, the political foundation of the current leadership remains susceptible to internal shocks. The current trajectory was set when the young prince, Mohammed bin Salman, sidelined the more traditional crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, in what was widely seen by regional observers as a bloodless coup within the halls of power in the Kingdom. This consolidation of power relied heavily on the promise of economic prosperity and regional stability.

Dragging the Kingdom into another unwinnable, expensive war in Yemen—disguised as a maritime defense pact—threatens to shatter those promises. The financial drain of a prolonged naval and aerial campaign, combined with the risk of retaliatory strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure (as seen in the recent attacks on the Eastern Province), could ignite domestic unrest.

The 14-nation naval alliance announced in Riyadh is a geopolitical mirage. It promises security but delivers a roadmap for escalation. It will not stop the Houthis, it will not secure the Red Sea, and it will not bring stability to the Arabian Peninsula. Instead, it threatens to crash the global economy, isolate its member states on the world stage, and push the Saudi Kingdom toward an internal and external crisis from which it may not easily recover. The world should not be fooled by the "defensive" label; this is the opening salvo of a much wider, and much more dangerous, war.

Who are the member-states of the Saudi Coalition against the Houthis?

1. Saudi Arabia Lead nation and host of headquarters
2. Qatar
3. Kuwait
4. Bahrain 
5. Pakistan 
6. Turkey 
7. Egypt
8. Jordan
9. Yemen  Note: This refers to the Saudi-backed government, not the Sanaa government
10. Bangladesh
11. Nigeria 
12. Sudan 
13. Djibouti 
14. Somalia 

Regional Breakdown:

• Gulf States: 4 (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain)
• Middle East/North Africa: 4 (Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Sudan)
• Horn of Africa: 2 (Djibouti, Somalia)
• South Asia: 2 (Pakistan, Bangladesh)
• Other: 1 (Turkey - transcontinental), 1 (Nigeria - West Africa)

Yemeni counternarrative:

Meanwhile, the Houthis are already actively weaponizing a potent propaganda narrative to galvanize religious and regional opposition to this new coalition. Capitalizing on recently surfaced allegations and documents suggesting that pieces of the sacred Kaaba cover (the Kiswa) were gifted or shipped to Jeffrey Epstein’s residence, Houthi media and allied outlets are accusing the Saudi ruling elite of defiling Islam’s holiest sites and beliefs for corrupt, secular ends.

This narrative is sharply amplified by the circulation of photographs showing Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman alongside Epstein, which Houthi supporters are using to frame the Saudi leadership not as defenders of the faith, but as participants in an "alliance of criminality" with Western predatory elites.

By framing the impending conflict as a moral and religious defense of Islamic sanctities against a corrupt monarchy, the Houthis aim to severely undermine the religious legitimacy of the Saudi state, transforming a geopolitical dispute into a profound ideological flashpoint that could resonate dangerously across the broader Muslim world.

Leader of Yemen's Ansar Allah, Sayyed Abdul-Malik al-Houthi: 

The Saudis gave Epstein the curtain of the Holy Kaaba, intending for him to use it as a mat to walk on with his shoes, and to incorporate it into his satanic rituals.

Unfortunately, Islamic governments and religious authorities in the Muslim world have remained silent regarding the gift of the Kaaba's curtain to the Jewish criminal Epstein.

I call for the formation of an Islamic committee to investigate this betrayal of giving the Kaaba's curtain to the Jewish criminal Epstein.

Media Review: US-Iran War is Igniting Regime Change Risks Across Arab Monarchies

Media Review: US-Iran War is Igniting Regime Change Risks Across Arab Monarchies

    Thursday, July 30, 2026   No comments

 The Fragile Thrones

As the United States resumes its military strikes against Iran, the geopolitical fault lines of the Middle East are shifting inward. For years, Arab authoritarian regimes have operated on a precarious social contract: trading limited political representation for economic stability and security guarantees, almost always underwritten by Washington. However, as Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia are increasingly perceived as facilitators of a US-Israeli war effort against the Islamic Republic, that social contract is fracturing. Regime change risk, once dismissed by Western analysts as a relic of the 2011 Arab Spring, is now a tangible and escalating reality. Nowhere is this dynamic more explosive than in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

Jordan: The Hashemite Crucible

For decades, the Hashimite regime has relied on a carefully curated narrative of religious legitimacy and royal lineage to consolidate power. This top-down approach has effectively centralized absolute authority in the palace, systematically robbing Jordanians of meaningful self-representation in government. The King retains the final say on all matters of state, a dynamic that has grown increasingly untenable as the kingdom’s foreign policy diverges sharply from the will of its people.

Today, Jordan’s close military alliance with the United States and its perceived complicity in the ongoing devastation of Palestine have sparked profound domestic outrage. This anger is compounded by a deep sense of betrayal regarding the Palestinian cause—a sentiment made more acute by the fact that Queen Rania is of Palestinian roots. To a populace watching neighboring Gaza and the West Bank suffer, the monarchy’s silence, coupled with its logistical facilitation of US-Israeli operations, is viewed not just as a foreign policy choice, but as a moral and political abdication.

The boiling point is now visible on the streets and in the halls of parliament. As recently reported, hundreds of Jordanian political, legal, and civil society figures have signed an open letter demanding the expulsion of US military forces. The letter explicitly warns that these bases expose Jordan to "security, political, and economic risks that serve no national interest" and increase the likelihood of the country being dragged into a regional conflict to which it is not a party.

Ninety-year-old veteran activist Sufyan al-Tell, who was detained by security forces in 2022 for planning to protest a speech by the monarch, framed the letter as a necessary revelation of the chasm between the rulers and the ruled. "We as Jordanian people do not accept the politics of the government and its exploitation of Jordan and its capabilities in one way or another to defend Israel," al-Tell stated, warning that the government’s predictable response is to "open the prison doors and drag us one after another to prison."

The tension is not confined to street activists. In a recent parliamentary session, a heated debate erupted when MP Ali al-Khalayleh suggested issuing formal condolences to Washington following the deaths of US soldiers in Iranian strikes targeting US bases in Jordan. He was swiftly met with furious shouts from fellow lawmakers, with one accusing the US military of killing "children, women, and the elderly."

This domestic fury is set against a backdrop of direct military escalation. Jordan has been among the leading Arab states facilitating US-Israeli attacks against Iran via its airspace and military sites. Consequently, it has become a direct target. Just hours ago, the kingdom reported intercepting Iranian missiles and drones launched in retaliation for the US resuming its strikes on July 30. For an already impoverished kingdom grappling with severe water scarcity, record unemployment, and crushing debt, the economic and security costs of hosting this conflict are becoming catastrophic. King Abdullah II may be forced to recalibrate his foreign and domestic policy, much as he did with limited political concessions during the 2011 Arab Spring. However, the margin for error is drastically thinner today, and the demands of the street are far more systemic.

The Ripple Effect: Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia

The tremors originating in Amman are being felt across the Gulf, where similar dynamics of authoritarian rule and fraught US alliances are creating volatile domestic environments.

In Bahrain, the ruling Al Khalifa family faces a perennial challenge from its Shia majority population, which maintains strong cultural and religious ties to Iran. Bahrain’s role as the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet makes it a prime strategic asset for Washington, but also a primary target for Iranian retaliation. Any perception that Manama is actively enabling strikes against Tehran risks igniting widespread civil unrest that the regime, despite heavy Saudi backing, may struggle to contain without brutal repression that would further isolate it internationally.

In Kuwait, the dynamic is different but equally precarious. The country possesses a more vocal and active parliament than its neighbors, and there is a strong, historically rooted anti-interventionist sentiment among the public. Kuwaiti lawmakers and civil society have consistently pushed back against being drawn into US-led military adventures. As the threat of Iranian retaliation grows, the Kuwaiti government will face immense pressure to distance itself from US military operations, directly challenging the long-standing US-Kuwaiti defense pact and testing the limits of the ruling family’s authority.

Even Saudi Arabia, despite Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s recent diplomatic outreach to Tehran and his focus on the "Vision 2030" economic transformation, is not immune. While Riyadh has publicly sought to avoid direct confrontation, its deep security integration with the United States makes it a vulnerable target. Any covert facilitation of US war efforts, or even perceived complicity, could invite devastating drone or missile attacks from Iran or its regional proxies. Such an escalation would shatter the illusion of stability and security that underpins the Crown Prince’s domestic legitimacy and economic ambitions.

The summer of 2026 marks a critical inflection point for Arab monarchies. The assumption that populations will silently endure the geopolitical ambitions of their rulers is no longer valid. By aligning themselves with a US-led war against Iran, these regimes are not merely making a foreign policy calculation; they are gambling with their own survival.

In Jordan, the intersection of economic despair, Palestinian solidarity, and the immediate, physical threat of Iranian retaliation has created a perfect storm. If the Hashemite monarchy, and others like it, cannot fundamentally recalibrate their relationship with both their people and Washington, the demand for regime change will transition from a whispered risk to an unavoidable reality. The era of unquestioned authoritarian stability in the Middle East is drawing to a close.

Will the US War on Iran, Aimed at Regime Change in Tehran, Result in Regime Change in Jordan and the GCC?

Will the US War on Iran, Aimed at Regime Change in Tehran, Result in Regime Change in Jordan and the GCC?

    Thursday, July 23, 2026   No comments

In the annals of modern geopolitical irony, few developments are as stark as the current trajectory of the US war on Iran. Initially championed by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu with overt calls for the Iranian people to overthrow their government, the conflict has undergone a profound and dangerous shift. The stated objective is no longer regime change in Tehran, but rather the forced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities.

To achieve this, the United States is launching continuous attacks from military bases embedded within the territories of Jordan and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. In doing so, Washington has inadvertently placed its most vulnerable allies—non-representative monarchies with long-standing grievances among their own populations—directly in the crosshairs. Now, Iran is skillfully exploiting this dynamic, driving a wedge between these regimes and their people, and raising the very real specter of regime change in Amman, Kuwait City, and beyond.

The Sovereignty Paradox: Iran’s "Hearts and Minds" Offensive

Tehran’s strategy has evolved beyond mere military retaliation; it has launched a sophisticated psychological and information warfare campaign directed squarely at the Arab street. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued direct, impassioned statements to the peoples of Jordan and Kuwait, reframing Iran’s strikes not as violations of national sovereignty, but as legitimate acts of self-defense against an occupying force.

In a recent statement addressed to the "honorable and noble people of Jordan," the IRGC justified its lightning strikes against US bases on Jordanian soil—which reportedly destroyed a THAAD radar, a Patriot air defense system, and set ablaze fuel storage and helicopter maintenance hangars. The message was unequivocal:

"What is a US military base inside another country? It is a place where Americans, and anyone they choose, can enter and leave without the oversight of your border authorities... Order there is enforced by the US military police, not yours. Crimes committed there are judged by American judges, not your own... Therefore, it is the United States, not us, that has violated your territorial integrity and sovereignty."

To anchor this argument in raw emotional resonance, the IRGC invoked the tragedy of Minab, stating:

 "Yesterday, the grieving people of Minab buried the remaining body parts of their schoolchildren... 168 students who were martyred on the first day of this war in an attack carried out by the child-killing US military. It is our legal, religious, and rational right to target the aggressor against our country and the killer of our children wherever it launches its attacks from."

A parallel message was delivered to Kuwait, where the IRGC claimed drone strikes on a large US military equipment depot, a Patriot system, and an MQ-9 drone hangar at Ali al-Salem Air Base, alongside troop housing at Camp Udairi (Camp Buehring). Once again, the narrative was carefully calibrated: Iran respects Kuwait’s sovereignty; it is the unchecked US military footprint that violates it.

The Jordanian Powder Keg

Nowhere is this dynamic more volatile than in Jordan. The Hashemite Kingdom’s government has long been perceived by its populace as helpless to alter US policy, particularly regarding Israeli violence against Palestinians. This impotence has severely weakened the regime’s legitimacy, a fact exacerbated by the demographic reality that roughly 65% of Jordan’s population has Palestinian heritage or direct connections to Palestine.

The disconnect between the Jordanian street and the palace was laid bare following recent Israeli provocations. When Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, alongside Knesset members and settlers, stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque under Israeli police protection, the Jordanian Foreign Ministry issued a stern condemnation, calling it a "blatant violation" of the mosque’s historic and legal status. For the average Jordanian, verbal condemnations ring hollow while US military assets in their country continue to facilitate a broader regional war, and while their government remains unable to protect Islamic holy sites from desecration. By hosting US forces that Iran now actively targets, the Jordanian monarchy is increasingly viewed not as a protector of national sovereignty, but as a complicit facilitator of foreign aggression.

The GCC Dilemma

The GCC states face a similar, if not more complex, vulnerability. Countries like Kuwait and Bahrain host significant Shia communities and populations in the GCC generally are deeply, historically sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. The presence of US bases has always been a quiet source of domestic tension, managed through a combination of economic patronage and political suppression.

Iran’s messaging directly punctures this fragile social contract. By framing US bases as extraterritorial colonies where "American law prevails, not your national law," Tehran is handing local opposition groups a powerful nationalist and religious narrative. If US bases are the launchpads for attacks on Iran, and Iran retaliates against those bases, the resulting collateral damage, economic disruption, and perception of humiliation will inevitably be directed at the monarchs who permitted the bases to exist in the first place.

The Crumbling US Domestic Front

This geopolitical boomerang effect is being accelerated by a rapid collapse in US domestic support for the war. President Trump, who once boasted of unwavering backing from his base, is now facing a severe political reckoning.

According to a POLITICO / Public First poll published on July 22, 2026, support for the war on Iran has fallen sharply among Trump’s core MAGA supporters. Just over a third now believe the economic price of the war is justified—a precipitous 13-point drop from 50 percent in May. Another 37 percent of self-identified MAGA voters stated they would back continued US involvement only if costs stop rising, while around one-fifth said the US should end the war no matter the costs. Opposition is even deeper among Trump voters outside the MAGA bloc.

The primary catalyst for this disillusionment is economic pain and mounting casualties. With gas prices having climbed to over $4 per gallon since Trump returned to office, 57 percent of MAGA voters and 63 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters directly blame the war.

The human cost is also becoming impossible to white-wash. At least 18 US soldiers have been killed since the start of the war, with wounded personnel surpassing 500. Just days ago, Trump attended a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base for four US soldiers killed in Iranian attacks: three in a missile strike on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, and a fourth at Erbil Air Base in Iraq. Right before the ceremony, Trump warned that Iran would "pay a big price," but the rhetoric increasingly rings hollow against the backdrop of American coffins.

Behind closed doors, the playbook of endless escalation has been replaced by White House panic. A source close to the administration told POLITICO that the government is at a "maximum level of frustration," with senior figures accepting that "the victory Trump wants cannot be won because the public will not back the escalation required. We've got more dead Americans and a politically impossible situation." With Trump’s approval ratings hovering near the lowest levels of his political career, the Republican Party faces the very real risk of losing its House majority and possibly the Senate in the upcoming November midterms.

The Irony of Hegemony

The United States entered this conflict with the maximalist goal of regime change in Iran, openly encouraging the Iranian people to rise up. The mechanics of modern warfare and the realities of regional geography have turned that logic on its head. By relying on the territories of non-representative, deeply unpopular monarchies to wage war, the US has transformed those regimes into strategic liabilities.

Iran, far from being isolated, has seized the narrative high ground. By positioning itself as the defender of regional sovereignty against American imperialism, Tehran is successfully weaponizing the legitimate grievances of the Jordanian and GCC publics. If the war continues to drag on, exacting a heavy toll in American lives, regional infrastructure, and economic stability, the ultimate irony may be realized: the US war intended to topple the Islamic Republic could instead become the catalyst that brings down the very monarchies Washington relies upon to project its power in the Middle East.