Showing posts with label Diplomacy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Diplomacy. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Convergence of interests between Trump and Biden may result in an agreement to end the war in Gaza

    Wednesday, November 27, 2024   No comments

Trump has been consistent with his demand that "finishes the job in Gaza quickly." In fact, he wants the war to end before he takes office so that he can focus on his domestic agenda which is expected to take most of his energy. Biden, who has been involved in a balancing act of supporting Israel and listening to young Americans most of whom see the war in Gaza as genocide, to enable his party to win elections is now free to focus on his personal legacy and achieve something in the Middle East. This convergence of interest may lead to an end of the war in Gaza, which will bring down the level of tension in the region.

With a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon in place, Biden is now looking to end the war in Gaza, which will reduce violence in the region. To this end, Biden will launch a new push on Wednesday to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and release hostages, after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a truce in Lebanon, his national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.

The truce that began early Wednesday in southern Lebanon means Hezbollah is no longer fighting in support of Hamas in Gaza. It will increase pressure on the Palestinian movement to accept a ceasefire and release the hostages, Sullivan told MSNBC.

Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just before the US- and French-brokered truce with Hezbollah was announced Tuesday and they agreed to try again to reach a deal on Gaza, Sullivan said.

“President Biden intends to begin this work today by engaging his envoys with Turkey, Qatar, Egypt and other actors in the region,” he said.

“We believe this is the beginning of an opportunity for a more stable Middle East where Israel’s security is assured and the interests of the United States are secure,” he added.

The agreement between Israel and Hezbollah was seen as an achievement for Biden as he prepares to leave the White House and hand over power to Donald Trump on January 20.

In parallel with announcing the agreement on Tuesday, Biden said that the United States, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar and Israel will again seek a ceasefire in Gaza, where Israel is still fighting a war against Hamas after an October 7, 2023 attack on its territory.

Biden confirmed that Washington will also push for a long-discussed agreement to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Media review: reactions to the ceasefire in Lebanon

Israeli media focused on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement that the Security Cabinet had agreed to a ceasefire with Lebanon under US mediation. While politicians opposed the agreement and considered it a surrender, analysts and journalists welcomed it, saying that there were political and military circumstances that pushed for signing it with all its negatives and loopholes, as they described them.

Kan 11 political affairs correspondent Suleiman Masouda said, "There are circumstances that are not only political, but also operational (military) that push for signing this agreement. We are entering the winter season, and the United States has not been supplying Israel with all the ammunition it requests for a while now, and there is a broad arms export ban."

Doron Kadosh, military affairs correspondent for Army Radio, described the agreement as "bad and with negatives and loopholes," but said that the army is demanding the agreement.

However, the Israeli correspondent explained that "there are immediate positives regarding ammunition and the issue of reserve soldiers who are collapsing under the pressure of military service and are no longer able to endure, in addition to the need to focus efforts on the Gaza Strip and recover the kidnapped soldiers."

For his part, Channel 13 military affairs analyst Alon Ben David explained that they in the security establishment acknowledge that the agreement with Lebanon "is not an ideal agreement, but from the beginning the army did not claim that it would eliminate Hezbollah's military power, because that would mean occupying all of Lebanon."

Former head of the Military Intelligence Division, Amos Malka, said that the war in Lebanon could end in three ways: the first is: "with the proposed agreement, the second with a security belt, and the third with a war until the last breath in an attempt - as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said - to eliminate Hezbollah."

He pointed out that the third possibility is not possible "because it will be a different war, and I do not think we have international support, and I do not think we have military plans for that."

Moshe Saada, a member of the Knesset for the Likud party, commented on the subject of the agreement with Lebanon by saying: "The situation is very complicated, and there are threats to ban the supply of weapons to us, and there are threats of UN resolutions against Israel."

As for the head of the "Israel Beiteinu" party, Avigdor Lieberman, he said, "This is a short ceasefire for 5 or 6 years, until the Fourth Lebanon War breaks out," noting that within 5 or 6 years "they (Hezbollah) will have 40,000 drones in Baalbek."

For his part, Yair Golan, leader of the opposition Democrats party and a former deputy chief of staff, described the agreement as “an interim agreement with clear justification, which we reached with a very exhausted army.”

"Hasty and irresponsible decision"... Anger in Israel over ceasefire agreement with Lebanon

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented the agreement in the context of what he said were “unprecedented achievements” made by Israel over the past year of war on seven fronts.

He said that Israel had set Hezbollah back decades and that it was no longer the same group it once was, according to the BBC.

Netanyahu indicated that the ceasefire would also allow Israel to “focus on the Iranian threat,” stressing that his country would retain full military freedom to confront any new threat from Hezbollah.

But Netanyahu’s political rivals, and even some of his allies, view the agreement as “de facto surrender.”

A poll conducted yesterday indicated that more than 80 percent of Netanyahu’s support base opposes the agreement, and that residents of northern Israel, who have been evacuated in large numbers due to Hezbollah strikes in the area, are also angry.

In Israel, the deal was deeply divided. One poll showed that 37 percent of Israelis support the ceasefire, 32 percent oppose it, and 31 percent do not know that there is an agreement at all.

Shelly, an English teacher in the town of Shlomi, said the ceasefire was “an irresponsible, hasty political decision.”

Rona Valenci, who was evacuated from Kibbutz Kfar Giladi in northern Israel on October 8 last year, said she wanted to return home and that a ceasefire was necessary, but the idea of ​​Lebanese residents returning to villages near Kfar Giladi, such as the Lebanese village of Adaisseh, gave her “a sense of anxiety and fear”.

“The only thing I can hope for is that Hezbollah does not infiltrate such nearby villages and build a new network there,” she said.

“There is nothing real that can make me feel safe except for these villages to be completely wiped out, and for no one to be there.”

The BBC said it had spoken to many Israelis who believe Netanyahu should continue the war in Lebanon, and wonder why the prime minister, who has vowed to continue fighting in Gaza until “complete victory”, would sign a ceasefire in Lebanon?!

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir opposed the agreement, calling it a “historic mistake”.

“This is not a ceasefire, it is a return to the concept of quiet for quiet, and we have already seen where this leads,” Ben-Gvir wrote in a post on the X website explaining his opposition to the agreement. He predicted that “in the end we will need to return to Lebanon again.” In contrast, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich asserted that “this agreement may guarantee Israel’s security forever.”

Le Figaro: 4 reasons why Israel accepted a ceasefire in Lebanon


Le Figaro reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a ceasefire in Lebanon on Tuesday, saying that the duration of the agreement depends on what happens there, and asked about the military and diplomatic issues that could explain this agreement. To shed light on this, the French newspaper met with researcher David Khalfa, co-director of the North Africa and Middle East Observatory, and responsible for the "geopolitical meetings" of the Jean Jaurès Foundation, to decode this announcement.



Experts to Asharq Al-Awsat: Ceasefire agreement does not prevent Hezbollah from returning to what it was



So far, the contents of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah are still unclear. Does the agreement, which appears to have been divided between Hezbollah and Israel, mean that Hezbollah’s military hand will remain free in Lebanon, despite talk of transforming it into a political party?

Hezbollah will continue its policies
Asharq Al-Awsat posed questions to two American researchers regarding the expected agreement to be signed. Michael Rubin, a senior researcher at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, expressed his fear that “Hezbollah will continue to maintain its capabilities to continue its policies,” while David Daoud, a senior researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said that “although the language of the agreement seems stronger than the language of Resolution 1701,” it does not seem sufficient to stop Hezbollah’s activities in the future.

The draft ceasefire agreement includes a 60-day transitional period during which the Israeli army will withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army will deploy in areas near the border, and Hezbollah will move its heavy weapons north of the Litani River. The deal includes a US-led oversight committee to monitor implementation and address violations.

The ICC and Hezbollah’s Money


“It is true that there has been significant progress, but it is unfortunate that the ICC’s accusations against Netanyahu have shifted these matters in another direction, forcing some mediators in the region to halt direct visits to Jerusalem and prevent Netanyahu from traveling to third countries,” said Michael Rubin. “My greatest concern about Hezbollah is that its financial and criminal network in Africa and South America remains intact. If Hezbollah turns its guns on the rest of the Lebanese, it will have the financial means to support itself,” Rubin added.

According to the agreement, the United States agreed to give Israel a letter of guarantees that includes support for Israeli military action against imminent threats from Lebanese territory, and to take measures to disrupt operations such as the re-establishment of Hezbollah’s military presence near the border, or the smuggling of heavy weapons. Under the agreement, Israel will take such action after consulting with the United States, if the Lebanese army does not deal with the threat.


Israel’s approval is incomprehensible


David Daoud says: “Although the language of the agreement seems stronger than the language of international resolution (1701), the Netanyahu government’s approval of this type of agreement cannot be explained, as long as international law gives the right to any country that is attacked, or sees that there is an imminent attack on it, to respond to it.” He pointed out that “Hezbollah’s breach of the agreement without causing a new imminent war is possible, as it can, for example, build a weapons factory that does not, according to the text of the agreement, constitute a direct threat to Israel.”

“The agreement guarantees Hezbollah’s continued dominance and control over Lebanon in light of the Lebanese people’s inability to confront it, and the Lebanese army’s inability to enter into a war with it, and cause a new civil war,” he said. Daoud believes that “the new reality resulting from the International Criminal Court’s decision against Netanyahu may complicate matters, and the internal Israeli situation may put him in a predicament, which may expose the agreement to collapse... Despite that, we are facing a 60-day agreement, which may give the new Trump administration (credibility) that it has entered an era free of wars in the Middle East, but nothing guarantees that it will not explode again in the coming years if its causes are not (removed).”


Did Israel's war in Lebanon achieve its goals?


Israeli leaders argued that the war was necessary to remove the threat of Hezbollah so that Israelis can return to their settlements in the north. The ceasefire agreement does not include any stipulation that could realize those aims. Hezbollah will not disarm, and at best will be expected to limit its presence south of Litani river. However, given that Hezbollah's rockets reached south of Tell Aviv just days before the ceasefire, 30 miles north of the border will not make any difference. This conclusion is clear in the mind of most Israelis, especially those of the north who are yet to start returning, and they may not return until after the 60 days had passed to see if this 60-day agreement is going to be made permanent. making the agreement permanent may depend on another ceasefire in Gaza; without an end to the war in Gaza, resumption of violence is a possibility and that will prevent many Israelis from returning to the north.  Military solutions rarely produce permanent solutions unless they are followed by a political solution. Israeli leaders have no interest in settling the conflict with the Palestinians in a way that will make wars unnecessary. 


Wednesday, November 20, 2024

U.S. uses veto, again, to block a draft cease fire in Gaza resolution

    Wednesday, November 20, 2024   No comments

For the  4th time since the start of the war on Gaza, the United States vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip.

The draft resolution, which was supported by 14 countries and opposed by only the United States, called for “an immediate, unconditional and lasting ceasefire to be respected by all parties” and “the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages.”

The draft resolution stressed the need for the parties to co
mply with their obligations under international law regarding the persons they are holding captive and to enable the civilian population in the Gaza Strip to immediately obtain basic services and humanitarian assistance essential to their survival.

The draft resolution at the same time rejected any action that would lead to the starvation of Palestinians, and called for the facilitation of full, rapid, safe and unhindered humanitarian access to the Gaza Strip and all its areas to reach all Palestinian civilians in need, including civilians in the besieged northern Gaza Strip who are in dire need of immediate humanitarian relief, under the coordination of the United Nations.

The draft resolution called on all parties to fully comply with international law, including international humanitarian law, in particular its provisions relating to the protection of civilians, including in particular women, children and persons hors de combat, as well as its provisions relating to the protection of civilian objects.

The United States alone voted against the resolution, using its veto as a permanent member of the council to prevent its passage as it did many times before.

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Erdogan: Turkiye has cut off trade and relations with Israel

    Wednesday, November 13, 2024   No comments

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed on Wednesday that his country "has severed trade and relations with Israel, and will continue to do so in the coming period," adding that it "stands with Palestine until the end."

This came in press statements made by Erdogan after his return from his visits to the Saudi capital, Riyadh, where he participated in the extraordinary Arab-Islamic summit, and Azerbaijan, where he attended the summit of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, "COP 29."

Speaking about the war that the Israeli occupation continues to wage on both the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, Erdogan stressed the need to declare an urgent ceasefire and deliver humanitarian aid, without interruption and on a regular basis, adding that "Ankara is working hard to continue to pressure Israel and take measures based on international law."

The Turkish president added that his country "has taken concrete steps in response to Israel's injustice, including stopping trade dealings with it," while stressing that the "People's Alliance," the ruling coalition that includes the Justice and Development Party and the Nationalist Movement Party, "is firm in severing relations with Israel."

In addition, the Turkish president indicated that 52 countries and two international organizations have expressed their support for the initiative launched by Ankara at the United Nations, in order to prevent the supply of weapons and ammunition to the occupation, noting that "a letter regarding this initiative has been delivered to the President of the UN Security Council and the Secretary-General of the United Nations, and a decision has been taken at the Riyadh Summit, calling on members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League to sign it."

In this context, Erdogan warned that "Israel will become more aggressive as long as weapons and ammunition continue to flow into it," stressing that "its injustice towards the Palestinians was one of the items on his agenda in all the countries with which he discussed it."

Erdogan expressed his regret for "not seeing a stance against the injustice (practiced by the occupation) from the governments of some Western countries," noting that expecting such a stance "from those who do not protest when they see hospitals and ambulances being bombed would be an illusion."

He continued: "They see this as normal, and are trying to cover up this crime under the guise that Israel has the right to defend itself."

It is noteworthy that the Turkish president warned in his speech during the extraordinary Arab-Islamic summit that Benjamin Netanyahu's government in "Israel" is working to "escalate military tension against Iran," while continuing its attacks on Lebanon.

He urged "isolating Israel internationally, unless it ends its aggression, bans the supply of weapons to it, and ends trade with it," calling on everyone to "join South Africa's lawsuit" against the occupation in the International Court of Justice, and "encourage more countries to recognize the State of Palestine."

Friday, November 08, 2024

Indonesia and China relations: Prabowo visits Beijing for first state visit, as Singapore connects its economy to China

    Friday, November 08, 2024   No comments

At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, Prabowo will pay a state visit to China from Friday to Sunday. President Xi will hold a welcoming ceremony for him, and the two heads of state will hold talks. Premier Li Qiang and Zhao Leji, chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, will meet with him respectively, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. 

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto arrived at Beijing Capital International Airport, China, at 6:25 p.m. local time on Friday for his inaugural state visit, at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Accompanied by his son, Didit Hediprasetyo, Prabowo disembarked from the Boeing 737-700 BBJ presidential aircraft and was greeted with a guard of honor performed by the People’s Liberation Army. A young girl then presented the Indonesian head of state with flowers.

Chinese Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Han Jun, received Prabowo and his officials, including Minister of Foreign Affairs Retno Marsudi and Cabinet Secretary Teddy Indra Wijaya, at the airport.

Spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, said earlier that Prabowo's decision to choose China as the first stop on his inaugural overseas tour reflects the importance of Indonesia-China bilateral ties.

Another neighbor to China, and significant Muslim influence, Singapore, is also strengthening relations with China. The Singapore Business Federation (SBF) organized the 7th Singapore-China Trade and Investment Forum (SCTIF) in Shanghai on Wednesday, on the sidelines of the 7th China International Import Expo (CIIE), with 15 memorandums of understanding valued at more than S$60 million ($45.26 million) signed, setting the stage for new growth opportunities and strengthening bilateral partnerships. 



Wednesday, October 23, 2024

BRICS Calling for a ceasefire in Gaza: We condemn Israel's attacks on Lebanon and Syria

    Wednesday, October 23, 2024   No comments

The BRICS group of countries stressed the need for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza, expressing its condemnation of the Israeli occupation's targeting of humanitarian operations and aid distribution centers in the Strip.



In a statement issued by the summit held in Russia on Wednesday, BRICS expressed its support for granting occupied Palestine full membership in the United Nations.


In addition, the group's countries confirmed that they consider the occupation's bombing of pagers in Lebanon a violation of international laws, expressing their condemnation of Israel's targeting of Iranian diplomatic buildings in Damascus.


In the statement, BRICS urged all parties to resume the Iranian nuclear agreement, calling for strengthening the "non-proliferation regime and establishing a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East."


Regarding the war in Ukraine, BRICS countries welcomed "good offices proposals on the Ukrainian settlement."


They also called for accelerating "the development and adoption of a comprehensive agreement to combat international terrorism within the framework of the United Nations," expressing "deep concern about the negative impact of unilateral sanctions on the global economy and other areas," and stressing the group's "leading role in the process of improving the global financial system."


It is noteworthy that the activities of the second day of the BRICS Summit 2024 began on Wednesday in the Russian city of Kazan, where a number of leaders, leaders and guests arrived in the city to participate in the summit, which was held in an expanded manner.


During a brief meeting held by Russian President Vladimir Putin with the group’s leaders, he confirmed “the existence of radical changes in a multipolar world,” stressing that his country “seeks to strengthen BRICS’ position in the world and focus on solving global and local problems,” adding that the group’s countries “show responsibility in their dealings with global situations through actions, not words.”

What to expect from BRICS under Russia's leadership

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced today, Wednesday, during a narrow meeting with the leaders of the BRICS group, that there are radical changes in a multipolar world.

During the meeting, Putin stressed that the BRICS countries have enormous economic, scientific, demographic and political potential.

He pointed out that Russia seeks to strengthen the position of BRICS in the world and focus on solving global and local problems, adding that the group's countries "show responsibility in their dealings with global situations through actions, not words."

The Russian president also stressed that "the BRICS countries' share in the global economy by the end of this year will represent 36.7%, which is more than the share of the G7 countries," adding that "the BRICS countries have become the most powerful economic group in the world."

He stressed that using the dollar as a weapon undermines confidence in it, noting that Russia is not abandoning it but is forced to look for alternatives.

Regarding the expansion of BRICS, Putin said: “Of course, it would be wrong to ignore the unprecedented interest of the countries of the Global South and East in strengthening contacts with the group’s countries, as more than 30 countries have already expressed this desire in one form or another,” but at the same time, “it is necessary to maintain balance and prevent a decline in BRICS’ effectiveness.”

During the meeting, the Russian President proposed to form a list of BRICS partner countries and to fix this in the final declaration of the Kazan Summit.

An alternative to SWIFT and de-dollarization.. BRICS expansion pushes towards a new global financial system

With the BRICS summit being held in the Russian city of Kazan with the participation of 36 countries, the group's aims have begun to materialize in practice, as its serious and decisive efforts to expand its membership circle have become apparent, and thus push towards creating a new financial system, far from the SWIFT system, which serves specific economic entities and entrenches economic crises that harm every entity trying to find a place outside the framework of Western hegemony.

The use of the US dollar and the SWIFT system as a weapon by the United States of America, especially after targeting Russia and separating it from the SWIFT system in 2022, has raised deep concerns about the security of the global financial system centered around America, as this exclusion has serious economic consequences, not only for the targeted countries, but for global trade in general.

This situation has highlighted the urgent need for alternatives to SWIFT, and for a financial system less dependent on the dollar to mitigate such risks. In this context, the group has long been discussing the idea of ​​a BRICS currency, which could be a basket of currencies backed by natural resources such as gold, oil and gas. What helps BRICS is that its countries collectively have larger gold reserves than the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank combined, according to the Independent Online website, and it is now seeking to expand its membership.


  

Indonesia's new government is introduced with emphasis on diplomaticy

    Wednesday, October 23, 2024   No comments

With President Prabowo inaugurating 48 cabinet ministers in his new government, the Indonesian foreign ministry, the country's agency responsible for connecting Indonesia to the world, will be run head by Sugiono and bolstered by three deputy foreign ministers--Anis Matta, Arrmanatha Nasir, and Arif Havas. 

Anis Matta, who is tasked with handling Indonesian diplomacy with the Islamic world, said that the Palestine issue would be his main focus.

"We have a Constitutional mandate to help Palestine's independence, and I think all our efforts as the Indonesian nation—both political diplomacy and humanity—will be demonstrated to help Palestine's independence," he said in a statement released on Tuesday.

"The war in Palestine will be a game changer. The final result of this war will change the constellation not only in the Middle East but at the global level," he added.

President Prabowo Subianto officially appointed Sugiono, the deputy chairperson of the Gerindra Party, as Indonesia's new foreign minister, replacing Retno Marsudi.



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