UAE Bet on the Wrong Horse and Paved the Way for Asian Hegemony

UAE Bet on the Wrong Horse and Paved the Way for Asian Hegemony

    Friday, September 11, 2026   No comments

For decades, the United Arab Emirates was heralded as the definitive economic miracle of the twenty-first century. Rising from the desert sands, it transformed itself into a hyper-modern global crossroads, a neutral financial sanctuary, and the undisputed logistics capital connecting East and West. It was a glittering oasis built on a seductive promise to global venture capital: zero taxes, top-tier infrastructure, and absolute safety, regardless of the chaos churning elsewhere in the Middle East.

But the oasis was built on a sandhill.

The UAE’s economic architecture required two fundamental conditions to survive: permanent maritime peace and unshakeable regional security. Today, following a series of fatal strategic miscalculations, the UAE finds itself trapped in an environment that completely lacks both. By abandoning its historic policy of diplomatic hedging and choosing a side in a volatile regional landscape, Abu Dhabi has exposed the severe structural vulnerabilities of its transient, import-dependent model.

As the security architecture of the Gulf fractures, a massive global correction is underway. The decline of the UAE’s hub-and-spoke economy is paving the way for a major geopolitical shift—one that is dramatically strengthening India, Pakistan, and China, while permanently limiting the influence of the Gulf states.

The Fragile Foundation: Oil, Money, and the Migrant Majority

To understand the severity of the UAE’s current dilemma, one must look beneath the gleaming skyscrapers. The Emirati economic model is fundamentally unnatural. Emirati citizens make up only about 10% to 12% of the total population. The remaining 88% to 90% are foreign expatriates and migrant workers, predominantly from South Asia.

While the country’s legal, security, and immigration structures are specifically built to prevent any scenario of migrant civil disobedience or "takeover," this demographic reality dictates a ruthless economic imperative: the state must keep the economy booming to maintain its social contract.

Economically, the UAE has aggressively diversified. While oil and gas directly account for about 20.6% of GDP (down from a historical 30%), the non-oil sector has surged to 79.4%. However, this diversification is highly regionalized. Abu Dhabi controls roughly 94% of the country’s oil reserves, while Dubai is over 95% non-oil-based, relying on tourism, real estate, aviation, and financial services. Crucially, hydrocarbon revenues still generate roughly 60% of total fiscal revenues, which are then funneled into massive sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) managing over $2.4 trillion in assets.

To future-proof this model, the government has heavily subsidized the "New Economy," targeting AED 450 billion in tourism under the We the UAE 2031 vision, expanding aviation logistics, and positioning the nation as a global AI and tech epicenter.

But all of this high-tech, high-finance diversification relies on one physical reality: the uninterrupted movement of goods. And that is where the cartographic reality of the Gulf has finally caught up with the UAE.

The Fatal Gamble: Abandoning Neutrality for Distant Friends

The UAE’s primary trade gateway, Jebel Ali Port, sits deep inside the Persian Gulf, entirely dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. When the 2026 U.S.-Israel war on Iran erupted, the UAE shattered its traditional "hedging" foreign policy. By opening its airspace and allowing its military facilities to be used for strikes against Iran, Abu Dhabi became the only Arab state to act as an active co-belligerent.

The retaliation was swift and structurally devastating. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driven by extreme war-risk insurance pricing, caused container throughput at Jebel Ali to plummet by over 90%. The UAE’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped sharply from a booming 60.2 down to 48.8, directly severing supply chains.

Desperate to stop its economy from being held hostage, the UAE executed an emergency backup plan, but it quickly proved to be an illusion.

The Bypass Ports are in the Line of Fire: The UAE attempted to shift trade to its eastern coast port of Fujairah, which sits outside the Strait of Hormuz. However, Fujairah remains comfortably within the reach of Iranian missile and drone technology. Iran demonstrated this by launching devastating strikes directly at the Fujairah and Mussafah oil hubs, and even knocking out AWS data centers in Dubai, freezing banking applications and payment platforms. Moving cargo from Fujairah inland also requires traversing the rugged Hajar Mountains, creating natural bottlenecks and skyrocketing costs.

The Saudi Trap: With the seas compromised, the UAE’s only lifeline is overland transport through Saudi Arabia (KSA). While emergency routes like the Sharjah-Dammam Trade Bridge have been launched, routing millions of tons of cargo overland is astronomically expensive. More importantly, it gives Riyadh total leverage over Abu Dhabi. Historically fierce economic rivals, the two nations are now locked in a "Gulf Economic War." Saudi Arabia is actively executing a strategy to replace the UAE as the region's primary hub, utilizing its massive land advantage and "Project HQ" mandates to force multinational corporations to move their regional headquarters to Riyadh.

The Security Trap: To survive the drone strikes, the UAE was forced to accept advanced Israeli air defense assets, including the Iron Dome, deployed secretly on its soil. Abu Dhabi is now entirely trapped in its alliance with Israel. It cannot "make nice" with Iran without abandoning the very missile shields keeping its cities structurally intact for now.

The Great Bypass: How the East is Re-Routing Global Trade

While the UAE spends billions duplicating pipeline networks and building mountain-bypassing railways just to keep a fraction of its economy moving, the world’s rising economic giants are simply building paths around the Gulf.

For years, the UAE banked on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) to cement its status as the permanent middleman of global commerce. The persistent state of war in the Gulf has effectively killed that dream. In its place, the geopolitical axes of India, Russia, and Iran have converged on an alternative that completely cuts the Gulf states out of the equation: the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

The new route is elegantly simple and geographically secure:

[Russia / Central Asia] ──> [INSTC Land & Rail] ──> [Iranian Ports (Chabahar)] ──> [Direct Ocean Routes] ──> [India & China]

By routing goods directly from Russia, through Iran’s Caspian and Indian Ocean ports, and straight into the Arabian Sea, global trade now bypasses the volatile Western-aligned chokepoints of the Gulf entirely. At recent BRICS meetings, heavyweights like Russia and China increasingly view the UAE's infrastructure not as a neutral global hub, but as a potential Western intelligence and military liability.

The Energy Realignment: Russia’s Role in the Shift

This geographic and logistical bypass is being supercharged by a critical resource: cheap, unlimited Russian energy.

With Western markets restricted, Moscow has redirected its vast oil and gas reserves eastward. By providing heavily discounted, reliable energy directly to India, China, and Pakistan, Russia has removed the single greatest leverage point the Gulf states historically held over the global economy. The Gulf’s historical monopoly on energy security has been broken, insulating the Asian mainland from Middle Eastern supply shocks.

The Winners: India, Pakistan, and China

As the UAE’s hub-and-spoke economy declines, a massive transfer of influence is flowing toward a more resilient Asian mainland.

1. India: The Ultimate Beneficiary Historically, the economic relationship between the UAE and India was a one-way street: India exported cheap labor, and the UAE reaped the corporate rewards. Now, that dynamic has reversed. As the UAE becomes a volatile security liability, global capital is migrating directly to India. Unlike the UAE, India possesses a massive domestic market of over 1.4 billion consumers, broad and unencumbered ocean access, and an unlimited native workforce. Backed by cheap Russian crude to power its industrial base, India no longer needs the UAE to act as its "front office." The UAE’s $2.4 trillion sovereign wealth is now desperately buying up Indian infrastructure and tech ecosystems, binding its financial survival to India's growth.

2. Pakistan: The Strategic Land Bridge As the Gulf destabilizes, Pakistan’s geographic value increases exponentially. Anchored by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the deepwater port of Gwadar, Pakistan provides China with a direct, overland trade route to the Arabian Sea. This infrastructure bypasses both the volatile Persian Gulf and the heavily monitored Malacca Strait, positioning Pakistan as a vital transit hub for an increasingly integrated Asian trade bloc.

3. China: The Insulated Industrial Hegemon For Beijing, a fractured Gulf accelerates its long-term strategy of Eurasian integration. By securing long-term energy deals with Russia and expanding maritime and overland routes through Pakistan and Iran, China has successfully insulated its supply chains from Western-aligned vulnerabilities. The decline of Dubai as a financial middleman simply means more global transactions shift to Shanghai and Hong Kong, utilizing alternative financial networks detached from Western oversight.

The Long-Term Cost of a Historic Blunder

The Gulf states—and the UAE in particular—built an economic empire on the assumption that they could buy security from distant superpowers while ignoring the core interests of their immediate neighbors. They assumed that a glittering skyline and a zero-tax regime would always be enough to hypnotize global markets into forgetting the volatility of the map.

It was a fatal miscalculation. By turning their homeland into a launching pad for external interests, they converted a neutral global hub into a primary military target.

As multi-trillion-dollar sovereign wealth funds scramble to buy up foreign real estate and tech ecosystems to protect their wealth abroad, the empty ports and quiet airports at home tell the real story. The capital has migrated. Armed with abundant Russian energy, vast native populations, and secure geography, the rising giants of Asia are sealing the deal. The era of the Gulf state as the indispensable middleman of global wealth is drawing to a close, proving once and for all that no amount of financial engineering can ever truly conquer geography.

WFP warns war in West Asia pushing millions toward hunger

WFP warns war in West Asia pushing millions toward hunger

    Friday, June 05, 2026   No comments

 The war in West Asia is driving millions of people closer to hunger, as higher fuel and transportation costs push up food prices and funding shortages force humanitarian organizations to reduce aid operations, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) said on Friday.

In March, the WFP warned that up to 45 million people could face acute food insecurity if oil prices remained near $100 per barrel through June. The agency said that scenario is now materializing, with benchmark crude prices staying above that threshold since early March.

Families in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Sri Lanka are among the hardest hit, facing increasing pressure from rising fuel costs, surging food prices, declining incomes, and trade disruptions.

The WFP said it anticipates reaching 1.5 million fewer people worldwide in 2026, with that figure potentially rising to 9 million if current conditions continue for another six months.

Chinese President Xi Jinping officially received the credentials of the Taliban ambassador to Beijing

Chinese President Xi Jinping officially received the credentials of the Taliban ambassador to Beijing

    Tuesday, January 30, 2024   No comments

The Afghan Foreign Ministry announced on Tuesday that Chinese President Xi Jinping officially received the credentials of the Taliban ambassador to Beijing. Mawlawi Assadullah, also known as Bilal Karimi, handed over his credentials along with ambassadors from 41 countries to President Xi at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, the ministry said in a statement.

President Xi is the first head of state to officially accredit a Taliban ambassador during a special ceremony, and last year, Taliban Prime Minister Hassan Akhund received the newly appointed Chinese ambassador to Afghanistan.

 

No country in the world has officially recognized the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan yet, but ambassadors appointed by the Taliban are actively working in many Asian capitals.

Taliban Ambassador to Chaina, Bilal Karimi

 

The Taliban movement has been criticized by the international community due to the severe restrictions it imposes on women's rights.

 

A Brussels-based research center said on Tuesday that countries in the region need to deal with Afghanistan regarding security and economic issues and urged Western powers to support such efforts or at least refrain from obstructing them.

 

China has maintained good relations with the Taliban since its return to power in August 2021, and Beijing is considered one of Kabul's largest trading partners.

A fatwa spurred the boycott of Israel's supporters in Indonesia

A fatwa spurred the boycott of Israel's supporters in Indonesia

    Tuesday, December 12, 2023   No comments

Solidarity marches in Indonesia, like other countries of the world, carry many messages that are reflected in the behavior of the solidarity activists, the most prominent of which is the boycott of companies related to Israel, or that have explicitly announced any forms of support or sympathy within Israel.

Over the past two months, the boycott has expanded remarkably in Indonesia, which has the largest Islamic market in the world, and whose population this year is estimated by the Indonesian Statistics Authority to reach 278.8 million people.

The boycott campaigns had not become evident among Indonesians, until the Indonesian Ulema Council last month issued Fatwa No. 83 of 2023, which became the jurisprudential basis for the boycott campaign among the public.

The fatwa - which came in 9 pages - requires that zakat and alms funds be directed to support the struggle of the Palestinian people to gain their independence in the face of Israeli aggression, and prohibits any support for Israel or any party that supports it, even by opinion or influence to buy products that support it, according to the text of the fatwa.

Supporting fatwas were also issued, including those issued by the Issues Research Committee of the Nahdatul Ulama Association in West Java, which saw the boycott as imposing kifaya in solidarity with the people of Gaza, and as weakening the economy of the occupation and those who have a relationship with it.

The Indonesian Ulema Council did not issue any lists of companies to boycott. More than one list of products that were called for to be boycotted was spread by activists and tweeters, and not by any official body or specific institution. The Secretary of the Fatwa Committee of the Indonesian Ulama Council, Miftah al-Huda, said that his council is not authorized to issue such Those lists.

Vice President of the People's Consultative Council, Dr. Hidayat Nur Wahid, supported the fatwa of the Indonesian Ulema Council, and suggested that legislation be passed to boycott Israeli products, in light of their committing crimes against the Palestinian people, to be a legal basis for the boycott, and to confirm Indonesia's position towards Palestine and the occupation.

Nour Waheed called for the establishment of a body concerned with this matter that would collect information and be an information reference for everything related to the boycott, and who should be boycotted based on the relationship with Israel and its aggression, and the activities of those companies inside the country.

Indonesian-based media outlet Republik reported on Saturday that Indonesian advocates are calling for a boycott of Israeli-linked products due to the ongoing genocide in Gaza. 

The call for a boycott was initially launched by human rights groups in both Indonesia and Malaysia and gradually grew to garner support from various political parties, the outlet said.

The list reportedly includes companies such as Coca-Cola, Starbucks, McDonalds, KFC, Nestle and IBM. 

"We in the House of Representatives encourage this boycott movement of Israeli products to become the official stance of the Indonesian government to be followed by all businesses and society," a member of the country’s parliament, Amin Ak, told Republika on Wednesday.

Advocates of the boycott are urging individuals to opt for locally-made products over Israeli-linked ones.

"That would be a good moment to strengthen the tightening of the flow of imported goods, especially imports of some products," said a senior official at the Indonesian Industry Ministry, Putu Juli Ardika.

Presidential elections in Singapore.. Tharman is the likely successor to Halima Yaqoub

Presidential elections in Singapore.. Tharman is the likely successor to Halima Yaqoub

    Friday, September 01, 2023   No comments

Since its secession from the Federation of Malaysia in 1965 until today, Singapore has known only 3 prime ministers, while 8 presidents have succeeded in that small country in Southeast Asia, which is described as a "city-state"; With an area of 710 square kilometers, and a population of 5 million people, half of whom are foreigners coming to work, making it the fourth country in the world in terms of population density.

Singapore is a country of many races, ethnicities and religions, 3 quarters of its citizens are of the Chinese race, while the rest of the population belongs to the Malay race or mixed Indian or Eurasian race. As many ethnicities as there are many religions in Singapore as well and include Buddhism, Islam, Taoism, Hinduism and Christianity.

All three prime ministers that Singapore has known came from ethnic Chinese - the largest of Singapore's ethnicities - and from one party, the People's Action Party (PAP), which has governed Singapore continuously since 1959.

And while the presidency of the government remained confined to the Chinese ethnicity, the ethnicities of those who assumed the position of head of state, which is an honorary position, varied, as they include, in addition to the Chinese ethnicity, the Malay and Indian ethnicities, and others of mixed ethnicities as well.

The religions of these presidents also varied between Buddhism, Hinduism and Islam. The first president of the state was Youssef bin Ishaq, whose image is placed on the country’s banknotes. He is a Malay Muslim who held the position for 3 consecutive terms from the founding of the state until his death in 1970. While it was Executive power is in the hands of Lee Kuan Yew, the founder and builder of Singapore and its first prime minister, who has been in office for 3 continuous decades.

The current president, Halima Yaqoub, 70, is a Muslim of the Malay ethnicity. She took office in 2017 after winning by acclamation, without a competitor, declaring that she was satisfied with one 6-year term that ends on September 17. Then, today, Friday, multi-party elections will be held to choose a successor.

In contrast to the position of prime minister, which the parties compete for in general legislative elections; The position of the president is non-partisan under the constitution, and the parliament remained the one who elects the president, until the constitution was amended in 1991, allowing him to be elected through presidential elections. Today's elections, Friday, are only the third since the constitutional amendment that transformed this position into a position elected by the public and gave the public the right to choose.

What is unique to Singapore in the requirements for a candidate for the presidency is that he has worked either as a senior government employee or CEO of a company whose shareholders have a value of at least 500 million Singapore dollars (370 million US dollars).

Although the role of the president in Singapore is largely ceremonial, there are strict requirements for the position, which formally oversees the country's accumulated financial reserves that can only be relied upon in exceptional circumstances, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2009 global financial crisis. With the power to veto certain actions and to approve anti-corruption investigations.

Three candidates who meet the conditions are competing in the elections taking place today, namely the Deputy Prime Minister and former Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who is the youngest of the three candidates (65) and the most fortunate, compared to his competitors; They are Ing Kok Song, 75, and Tan Kin Lien, 75.

Economic backgrounds and a major public position appear to be the common denominator among the three contenders, who the election administration announced that they met the strict criteria for competition among the applicants for candidacy.

The announcement of their official acceptance of the candidacy came less than two weeks before the elections were held today, which is a very short period compared to the rest of the world, and was the object of the complaint of the candidate, Tan Kin Lien, who saw it as an insufficient period for the electoral campaign that ended last Wednesday before the election day of silence yesterday, Thursday.

The nominee, Ing Kok Song, is a former chief investment officer at the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund that manages the country's foreign reserves, and spent more than 4 decades working in public service until his retirement in 2013. Ing is currently Chairman of the Board of Directors of Avanda Management Corporation. Investments worth billions of dollars.

Having spent years working closely with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Eng admitted he might be seen as "part of the establishment". However, he believes that the lack of direct political affiliation makes him an independent candidate. He never joined the Popular Action Party, which has ruled the country since its independence six decades ago. He believes that his long experience in the financial sector puts him in a good position to protect the national reserves.

As for Tan Kin Lien, a former presidential candidate in Singapore, this is his second attempt to win the position. Having come last out of 4 candidates in the 2011 presidential election, he is a former chairman of one of Singapore's leading insurance companies and has the support of several opposition leaders.

Layan presided over the International Federation of Cooperative and Mutual Insurance from 1992 to 1997, and the federation was an international organization that at that time represented 123 insurance groups in 65 countries, and employed 260,000 people. The total assets of the members of this international association amounted to 1.5 trillion US dollars in 1997.

As for the most likely candidate, Deputy Prime Minister and former Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, he is a multi-ethnic Singaporean citizen (Tamil-Indian-Ceylon) who is known as a supporter of the ruling People's Action Party, but he submitted his resignation before his candidacy. He is widely seen as having the support of the government, and has been questioned about his independence during the election campaign.

Before resigning his government positions to contest this election, Tharman spent more than two decades in office with the People's Action Party, rising to the position of Deputy Prime Minister.

He was first elected to Parliament in 2001 and was Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore. He also served as the Coordinating Minister for Social Policy, and provided economic advice to Prime Minister Lee.

He said that if given the opportunity to lead, he would be "total and impartial in the discharge of the constitutional duties of office in respect of the prudent use of the country's reserves".

While his rivals seemed preoccupied with their party independence, Tharman urged voters to judge candidates on their record, rather than their past affiliations.

"If I am lucky enough to be elected president, I will represent the unity of Singaporeans, of all races, religions, social backgrounds and political leanings, at a time when views among the population are becoming more diverse," he said.

Since Tharman entered Singaporean politics just over two decades ago, he has avoided constant calls from the public that he should become the next prime minister of the Southeast Asian country.

Tharman - who is very popular and has risen in the ranks of the ruling People's Action Party, and is very popular among members of the opposition - insists that he is not suitable for the position of prime minister. He even likened his refereeing skills to those of a soccer goal-maker, saying that he is better as a team player who can provide assists than a superstar who scores goals. "I enjoy making long passes," he said. "But I'm not the striker."

His candidacy is thus a far cry from the quest for the premiership currently held by Lee Hsien Loong, the son of Singapore's founding prime minister. He is expected to retire and choose his successor before the country's next general election in 2025.

But it is a step that helps avoid the looming question of whether the Chinese-majority country (or the ruling party) that promotes its multi-ethnic and pluralistic society is ready or reluctant to elevate someone from an ethnic minority to the position of prime minister.

Also unique to Singapore is voting, which is compulsory for more than 2.7 million eligible citizens of Singapore. Those who do not vote without valid reason are subject to being removed from the voter list.

He also notes the absence of long, orderly lines at polling stations, as well as the raucous atmosphere that can accompany elections in other countries, with supporters cheering or handing out flyers to push for last-minute votes. And "presidential elections are increasingly being treated as a general election."

Today's presidential elections are being watched closely as an indication of support for the ruling Popular Action Party after a rare series of political scandals that rocked the party recently, which is rare in a country that has benefited from the reputation of its clean government, and has become an international center for a group of industries such as finance and aviation, especially since the party has suffered from its worst electoral performance ever in 2020; However, he maintained his majority of more than two-thirds.

Observers said the vote could indicate the level of support for the PAP ahead of general elections scheduled for 2025 or discontent after recent scandals that include a corruption investigation into the transport minister and the resignation of two PAP lawmakers over an affair.

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Philippines: Muslims affirm that the first dictionary of Islamic law will be issued bearing the slogan of justice and mercy

Philippines: Muslims affirm that the first dictionary of Islamic law will be issued bearing the slogan of justice and mercy

    Wednesday, August 30, 2023   No comments

With the Philippines achieving the achievement of publishing the first dictionary of Islamic law, Muslims expressed their happiness that the aforementioned book promotes neutrality and moves for it and benevolence.

Attorney Maysara Dandamoon Latif, a former Member of Parliament who is now the head of a local council, emphasized that the newly released dictionary enhances appreciation between different cultures.

He added, “The dictionary embraces the spirit of inclusiveness that welcomes individuals of different religions and ethnicities to enrich their understanding of Islamic concepts.

Latif emphasized that Sharia guides have never had dictionaries, and that the newly launched Islamic Sharia Dictionary is the first of its kind.

The responsible authorities stressed that the reader will understand that Sharia promotes justice and mercy instead of hatred and that it enhances understanding because Islamic Sharia teaches mercy, kindness and humanity.

Former Muslim Senator Sameera Gutuk said that the Dictionary of Islamic Law is a wonderful contribution to literature.

And she stressed, "Those who stand behind the completion of this book were not just authors and writers, but rather advocates who gathered together as one community."