The Seismic Shift: U.S. Engagement with Sanaa
The foundation of Saudi Arabia’s strategic anxiety lies in a profound shift in U.S. policy. According to recent reports, U.S. officials met directly with an Ansarallah (Houthi) delegation in Oman over the weekend (09/12/2026). The reported terms of this engagement are a stark departure from the past: the U.S. has reportedly promised the Houthis that it will not provide air support to Saudi-backed forces or strike targets in Houthi-held territories, in exchange for keeping the Bab Al-Mandab strait open to international shipping.
This marks a critical turning point. The U.S. administration is now engaging the Sanaa government in the same pragmatic manner it has approached the Julani-led government in Syria: recognizing them as the de facto rulers of the country. For Riyadh, this is a profound strategic shock. Saudi Arabia previously had opportunities to negotiate directly with Sanaa to end the war but refused, opting instead for prolonged military escalation. Now, as Washington bypasses Riyadh to deal directly with the Yemeni capital, the Kingdom’s leverage has drastically diminished.
The Illusion of the Pakistan and Turkey Pacts
In response to this perceived abandonment, Saudi Arabia has rushed to formalize defense pacts with Pakistan and Turkey. However, neither pact has been activated to defend Saudi Arabia against retaliatory strikes from Sanaa, revealing their inherent fragility.
Pakistan has historically maintained a cautious neutrality in intra-Gulf conflicts, acutely aware of the domestic and geopolitical costs of entangling its military in Yemen. Turkey’s position is even more fraught. Any assumption that Ankara will rush to defend Riyadh ignores the deep, unresolved wounds of recent history.
The Khashoggi Shadow
The idea that Turkey would risk its strategic standing to defend the current Saudi leadership is contradicted by the recent past. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has explicitly stated that the order to kill journalist Jamal Khashoggi came from the "highest levels" of the Saudi government. While Erdoğan initially stopped short of naming Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in official addresses, the Turkish state’s actions spoke volumes. In December 2018, the chief prosecutor’s office in Istanbul filed applications to obtain arrest warrants for Ahmad al-Assiri and Saud al-Qahtani, key allies and advisors to the Crown Prince, describing them as "among the planners" of the murder.
While Ankara and Riyadh have pursued a transactional diplomatic thaw in recent years, this relationship is built on economic and political convenience, not foundational trust. In a moment of genuine military crisis, Turkey’s strategic calculus will not prioritize the survival of a leadership it has previously accused of orchestrating extrajudicial killings on its soil.
The Backfiring Religious Narrative
Facing military vulnerability and diplomatic isolation, Riyadh has attempted to weaponize its geography. By framing Houthi missile and drone strikes as attacks on the sanctity of Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia is attempting to galvanize sympathy from the broader Muslim world on religious grounds.
However, this narrative is fundamentally undermined by MBS’s own domestic trajectory. The Crown Prince has systematically curtailed the power of the religious establishment, sidelined traditional Salafi allies, and aggressively promoted a secular entertainment industry, including concerts and public events that were strictly barred on religious grounds just a decade ago. Attempting to rebrand a geopolitical conflict as a sectarian or religious war rings hollow to a regional public acutely aware of the Kingdom’s internal cultural revolution. The religious card is a bluff, and the Arab street is no longer buying it.
The Reality of Escalation
The consequences of this strategic miscalculation are already manifesting on the ground. The Yemeni Armed Forces recently announced qualitative military operations targeting Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones. In their statement, the Yemeni Armed Forces affirmed they will continue to reinforce an equation of "blockade for blockade" and "escalation for escalation" until the aggression ends.
Concurrently, the vulnerability of the Kingdom has been underscored by the United States itself. The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh recently issued a Level 3 travel advisory, urging Americans to reconsider trips to Saudi Arabia due to the risk of drone and missile attacks. The advisory explicitly restricts U.S. government employees from traveling within 20 miles of the Yemeni border and imposes restrictions on travel to Qatif, Jizan, Asir, and Najran. When the primary historical guarantor of Saudi security is warning its own citizens to stay away, the message to the world is unmistakable.
Principles Over Panic
A defense architecture cannot be sustainably built on the shifting sands of fear and reactive panic. The pacts with Pakistan and Turkey lack the ideological cohesion, mutual trust, and strategic alignment required to withstand actual combat pressures.
As the U.S. normalizes relations with Sanaa and focuses on its own broader strategic priorities, Saudi Arabia must confront a stark reality: the era of blank-check security guarantees is over. The Kingdom had its chance to end the war through diplomacy and chose escalation. Now, it is reaping the geopolitical harvest of that choice. Unless future alliances are forged on genuine, shared principles rather than desperate reactions to a waning American umbrella, they will remain exactly what they are today—the shade of a leafless tree.
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