China’s “Justice Mission 2025” Drills Signal Strategic Shift Around Taiwan

In a powerful display of military coordination and strategic messaging, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has concluded the second day of its expansive “Justice Mission 2025” joint military drills encircling Taiwan. The maneuvers, which began on December 29, represent far more than routine training—they constitute a calibrated assertion of Beijing’s resolve to deter “Taiwan independence” and block foreign interference, particularly from the United States and Japan.

The exercises, orchestrated by the PLA Eastern Theater Command, brought together integrated forces from the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force. Live-fire drills on Tuesday morning targeted waters north of Taiwan, followed by simulated joint strikes to the south in the afternoon. According to official reports, every rocket launched from long-range modularized rocket systems struck its intended target—a demonstration not only of precision but of psychological pressure.

“This series of exercises demonstrates our strong capability to seize comprehensive control of the Taiwan Strait,” said Zhang Chi, a professor at China’s National Defense University. He emphasized that the drills combined “blockade and strike” operations across multiple domains—sea, air, land, and cyber—to enforce what Beijing describes as “multidimensional isolation” of the island.

A Three-Tiered Operational Framework

Zhang outlined the spatial architecture of the drills in three concentric arcs:

1. Nearshore enforcement: China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels patrolled contested waters near Matsu and Wuqiu, enforcing maritime law and signaling administrative control.
2. Encirclement of Taiwan: Naval and air assets pressed closer to the island, overseeing critical sea lanes and chokepoints, effectively disrupting civilian air traffic—941 flights were reportedly affected on Monday alone.
3. Eastern theater projection: In the Pacific-facing waters east of Taiwan, the PLA conducted anti-submarine operations, air superiority drills, and amphibious raids using elite forces and unmanned systems, underscoring its readiness to interdict external reinforcements.

A provocative “Throat-Choking” poster released by the CCG depicted the interception of a Taiwanese cargo ship allegedly carrying U.S.-made HIMARS rocket launchers—highlighting Beijing’s focus on cutting off military supply lines as part of its coercive strategy.

Political Messaging and Domestic Repercussions

The timing of the drills is no coincidence. They follow a major U.S. arms sale to Taiwan worth $11.1 billion and escalating rhetoric from Taipei under President Lai Ching-te, whose approval ratings have slumped—52.2% of Taiwanese now express dissatisfaction with his leadership, according to a December poll.

Meanwhile, China is coupling military pressure with diplomatic outreach. Song Tao, head of the Communist Party’s Taiwan Affairs Office, met with nearly 200 Taiwanese business leaders during the drills, urging them to oppose “Taiwan independence” and support peaceful reunification. This dual-track approach—“tough on the tough, soft on the soft”—reflects Beijing’s evolving Taiwan policy, aimed at dividing pro-independence elites from the broader public and business community.

Despite the scale of the exercises, Washington’s response has been conspicuously muted. When asked by CBS News, the Pentagon offered “nothing to say,” while former U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the drills as routine, saying, “They’ve been doing this for 20 years.”

But analysts suggest this restraint may mask strategic realism. “The mainland not only has vast numerical superiority, it now has qualitative superiority across the board—in weaponry and probably in training as well,” noted Lyle Goldstein of the U.S.-based think tank Defense Priorities.

Japanese media, including Nikkei and Jiji Press, interpreted the drills as a direct warning to Tokyo not to intervene in any future cross-strait contingency. A senior Japanese defense official acknowledged the exercises as a serious escalation, pledging to “stay vigilant.”

The Shadow of Taipei 101

Adding symbolic weight to the maneuvers, the PLA released drone footage on Monday showing Taipei 101—the island’s iconic skyscraper—under the shadow of Chinese military aircraft. The image resurrected a haunting prediction made a year ago by former Taiwanese security chief Su Chi: that if PLA jets ever photographed Taipei 101 at night, Taiwan would be powerless to stop them.

Now, that scenario appears less like prophecy and more like practice.

While Beijing insists the drills are defensive and aimed solely at separatists, their scope and synchronization suggest a rehearsal for real-world contingencies—including blockade, amphibious assault, and rapid decapitation strikes. As Professor Li Haidong of China Foreign Affairs University noted, “The U.S. and Japan know full well that achieving a military victory against China in the Taiwan Strait today is unrealistic.”

The “Justice Mission 2025” may not herald imminent invasion, but it undeniably marks a new threshold in China’s campaign to normalize military dominance over the Taiwan Strait—reshaping regional power dynamics while testing the limits of American and allied resolve. 

US precendent

This escalation around Taiwan must also be viewed in the broader context of U.S. foreign policy, which has repeatedly employed military pressure and coercive tactics against sovereign nations—most recently in Venezuela, where the U.S. government has intensified sanctions, conducted naval drills off the Caribbean coast, and openly supported opposition figures in efforts to undermine the Maduro administration. Washington justifies such actions under the guise of promoting democracy or countering authoritarianism, yet it rarely faces meaningful international consequences for violating principles of non-intervention. From China’s perspective, this double standard is glaring: if the United States can openly threaten, isolate, and destabilize a recognized sovereign state like Venezuela—without renouncing its own adherence to the “One China” policy—then Beijing contends it is well within its rights to treat Taiwan not as an independent actor, but as an internal matter. After all, every U.S. administration since 1979 has formally acknowledged that Taiwan is part of China, even while deepening unofficial ties. China thus frames its military posturing not as aggression, but as a proportionate and legitimate response to what it sees as American hypocrisy—using force to uphold sovereignty in one context while undermining it in another.