With Truce or Ceasefire remain elusive in Sudan, Clashes continue between the army and the Rapid Support Forces

With Truce or Ceasefire remain elusive in Sudan, Clashes continue between the army and the Rapid Support Forces

    Sunday, April 30, 2023   No comments

Today, Sunday, the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan announced the extension of the truce for 72 hours, in response to international, regional and local calls.

The statement issued by the official spokesman for the Rapid Support Forces said: "In response to international, regional and local calls, we announce the extension of the humanitarian truce for a period of 72 hours, starting from midnight tonight, in order to open humanitarian corridors and facilitate the movement of citizens and residents, and enable them to fulfill their needs and reach safe areas."

Simultaneously, the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the Rapid Support Forces of carrying out "flagrant and repeated" attacks on the headquarters of diplomatic missions and bodies.

The statement added, "In a flagrant violation of all international norms and treaties, on April 28, these rebel forces attacked the Indonesian embassy," accusing them of stealing a diplomatic vehicle belonging to the embassy.

Witnesses told AFP that clashes took place near the army headquarters in Khartoum, and the city of Omdurman, west of the capital, was bombed.

From southern Khartoum, a witness said, "There is very fierce fighting and heavy shooting in the street every few minutes since early morning."

The arrival of the first aid shipment from the Red Cross by air

On Sunday, the first shipment of humanitarian aid from the Red Cross arrived in the city of Port Sudan, as part of the emergency operations it has been carrying out since the outbreak of fighting in Sudan, according to what officials said in a virtual press conference from Geneva.

A statement from the International Committee of the Red Cross stated that the shipment, which was sent from Amman, weighed eight tons and "contained surgical equipment to support Sudan's hospitals and volunteers of the Sudanese Red Crescent Society who provide medical care to the wounded who were injured during the fighting."

The Red Cross added in the statement that it would "send a second plane carrying additional medical supplies and emergency personnel."

"We were able to fly to Port Sudan from Amman as a medical staff with supplies to deal with war-wounded, enough to stabilize 1,500 wounded," said Patrick Youssef, the ICRC's regional director for Africa, at the press conference.

"We now hope to get them as soon as possible to some of the busiest hospitals in Khartoum," he added.

As the fighting enters its third week, families in the capital, which has a population of about five million, and its suburbs are still suffering from a lack of food, water, electricity, and cash, and many of them are staying at home.

Tens of thousands of people have been displaced internally or to neighboring countries, while several foreign and Arab countries are organizing large-scale evacuations.

International and regional powers called for an end to the escalating violence between the two military leaders, but they refused direct talks and exchanged accusations through the media.

Today, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged support for African-led mediation.

"The United Nations is intensifying its efforts to help people seeking safety in neighboring countries," he wrote on Twitter.

The United Nations said that nearly 75,000 people were internally displaced during the first week of fighting, mainly in the states of Khartoum, Northern, Blue Nile, North Kordofan, North, West and South Darfur.

More than 30,000 people have fled to Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Central Africa, according to estimates by the United Nations, which warned that the number of people fleeing could reach 270,000 if the fighting continues.

The continuous battles between the army and the Rapid Support Forces prompted many countries to intensify their efforts to evacuate their nationals or members of diplomatic missions, by land, sea and air.

The Sudanese Ministry of Health said that the fighting affected 12 states out of 18 in the country.

Sudan has plunged into chaos since the bloody struggle for power erupted in mid-April between army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, nicknamed "Hemedti".

The war left at least 528 dead and 4,599 wounded, according to figures announced by the Ministry of Health on Saturday, but the toll is likely to be higher.

The two parties to the conflict exchange accusations of violating the armistice, which was extended for three days under international mediation, and ends, Sunday, at midnight.

Earlier, the Sudanese army accused the Rapid Support Forces of turning a hospital into a heavily armed military barracks and command center for operations.

In the details, a statement issued by the General Command of the Armed Forces said: "The rebels turned the East Nile Hospital into a heavily armed military barracks and a command center for operations and continued hostile action after evacuating patients, including critical cases, in intensive care."

The statement also accused the Rapid Support Forces of continuing "indiscriminate shelling and looting of public and private property, including banks, shops, and citizens' homes."

He said that the army is monitoring the rapid support forces moving from the west to the capital, which confirms the continuation of these forces in violating the declared armistice.

The head of the Human Rights Commission in Sudan, Rifaat Mirghani Abbas, warned that the country's health system is on the verge of collapse, as a result of the ongoing clashes since the middle of this month between the army and the Rapid Support Forces.

Abbas said, "We are now talking about a health system on the verge of collapse. Hospitals have become a battleground for both sides and have not been spared from their fire."

He added that the medical personnel are working in very bad conditions, the necessary medicines have become almost non-existent, and ambulances cannot operate safely, in addition to multiple problems related to the health situation.

It is noteworthy that the ongoing battles in Sudan between the Sudanese army on the one hand and the "rapid support" forces on the other, in separate areas, have resulted in at least 14 attacks on health facilities since the fighting began.

China's Special Envoy for the Middle East, Zhai Jun: China looks at relations with Syria from a strategic perspective, and within a comprehensive vision for the region

China's Special Envoy for the Middle East, Zhai Jun: China looks at relations with Syria from a strategic perspective, and within a comprehensive vision for the region

    Saturday, April 29, 2023   No comments

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad discussed, today, Saturday, during his meeting with the Chinese government's special envoy to the Middle East, Zhai Jun, the Syrian-Chinese relations, common perceptions of the bilateral relationship, and China's vital role throughout this region.

President al-Assad pointed out that the most important positive change that occurred in the world was represented by the Chinese role, "which is escalating in a calm and balanced manner."

President al-Assad praised the Chinese mediation, which culminated in the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the improvement of relations between them, in a way that will be reflected in the stability of the entire Middle East region, as he described it.

He also pointed to the importance of the Belt and Road Initiative in achieving economic development and cooperation, stressing that "confrontation has always been primarily economic. Therefore, liberation from the restriction of dealing in US dollars has become necessary."

He added, "This role is presenting a new model in politics, economy and culture, especially as it is based on the principle of achieving stability, peace and profit for all," noting that "the whole world today needs the Chinese presence, politically and economically, in order to restore balance to the global situation, especially In light of the Russian-Chinese relations, and the strong international space that the BRICS alliance represents, capable of creating a multipolar international system.

He pointed out that the BRICS countries can play a leading role in this field, in addition to the option of adopting the Chinese yuan in trade transactions between countries.

Al-Assad stressed that Syria does not forget that China stood by its side during the war in order to defend Syrian sovereignty, in accordance with international law and the United Nations Charter, and that it appreciates all the assistance provided by Beijing during the earthquake period.

For his part, the Special Envoy, Zhai Jun, conveyed to President Assad the greetings of Chinese President Xi Jinping, and his keenness to achieve greater results in bilateral relations, stressing that China views relations with Syria from a strategic perspective, and within a comprehensive vision for the region.

Zhai Jun expressed his country's satisfaction with the victory achieved by the Syrian people in their battle against terrorism, "because it is a victory for all countries that defend their sovereignty and dignity," stressing that Beijing "will stand with Syria in international forums, in word and deed, in defense of truth and justice, and will support its battle." Against hegemony, terrorism and external interference.

Zhai Jun expressed China's support for the positive developments regarding the rapprochement path between Syria and the Arab countries.

ISR Weekly Review Bulletin for April 23, 2023

ISR Weekly Review Bulletin for April 23, 2023

    Sunday, April 23, 2023   No comments

To keep our readers informed about the most consequential events in this fast changing world, ISR researchers cull through current events news, so you don’t have to.

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Eid Mubarak: Muslims around the world celebrate the end of the month of Ramadan

Eid Mubarak: Muslims around the world celebrate the end of the month of Ramadan

    Saturday, April 22, 2023   No comments

After a month of fasting, reflection, and prayers, Muslims around the world mark the end of the month of fasting, Ramadan, with prayers, visits to family and neighbors to ask forgiveness, and recommit to a more balanced life.

These are some images of Muslims celebrating Eid 2023.

In The News: Vatican official says the West bears a great responsibility in destabilizing the Middle East

In The News: Vatican official says the West bears a great responsibility in destabilizing the Middle East

    Friday, April 21, 2023   No comments

The Dean of the Department of Eastern Churches in the Vatican, Archbishop Claudio Gugerotti, said that the West bears a great responsibility in destabilizing the Middle East, because of its tendency to transfer its culture to the region, and to demand that its peoples adapt their lives to this culture.

The Dean of the Department of Eastern Churches added that they, "as Western Catholics, apologize for their support of this short-sighted vision," adding, "We commend your heroic efforts in being witnesses to our common faith over hardships, of all kinds."

The "Vatican News" website indicated that this statement was made in the presence of more than 250 representatives of the Catholic Churches in the Middle East, who were present at the opening of the "Rooted in Hope" symposium, which is being held in Nicosia until April 23, and is organized by the "ROACO" organization concerned with aid. Eastern churches.

Vatican Radio pointed out that what worries Archbishop Gugerotti is "the dispersion of Christians in the Middle East, resulting from the current tragic situation, which profoundly affects their daily lives."

It is noteworthy that Pope Francis said, last year, that the West cannot be described as an "example to follow" because it took the wrong path, describing it as the greatest graveyard of humanity.

He also said last month that the interests of multiple "empires" are driving the war in Ukraine, not just Russia, adding that the conflict was fueled by "colonial interests, and not only because of the Russian Empire, but because of other empires as well."

Media review: is France's Macron rebelling against the Western world order?

Media review: is France's Macron rebelling against the Western world order?

    Thursday, April 20, 2023   No comments

The Economist thinks so.

The prestigious British newspaper The Economist launched, in its latest issue, a fierce attack on President Macron because of his statements that he made to a very limited number of journalists who accompanied him during his recent visit to China, describing them as very dangerous and at the wrong time.

What angered the well-established magazine, which represents the Western liberal capitalist world in one way or another, and was reflected in its editorial, which is followed by most of the leaders of the Western world in particular, and topped its latest issue, the saying of the French president, whom she described as one of the most experienced European leaders, “It is not the business of the European continent to fall into crises.” It is not our business, and in the name of strategic autonomy, and we should not be in Europe following America in a crisis like the Taiwan crisis.”

Macron, from the magazine's point of view, made two fatal mistakes:

The first: strengthening the ambition of China and its president to divide the European continent and separate the Europeans from America.

The second: undermining the allies' support for Taiwan, because diplomacy alone will not reduce the risks of war, and the West needs to strengthen military deterrence, which requires strengthening the US-European Western alliance in the face of tyranny.

What is certain and indisputable is that Emmanuel Macron is not Charles de Gaulle, the historical leader of France, and it is not possible to compare the two for many reasons that are long to explain, but his recent positions, that is, Macron, are trying to emulate de Gaulle's strategic positions, the most prominent of which is preventing Britain from entering the European market The joint (European Union later) because it does not trust it, and not to join the “NATO” alliance led by America.

Strong reaction by Medvedev to South Korea's readiness to supply Kiev with weapons: What will the South Koreans say if Russian weapons reach their northern neighbor?

Strong reaction by Medvedev to South Korea's readiness to supply Kiev with weapons: What will the South Koreans say if Russian weapons reach their northern neighbor?

    Wednesday, April 19, 2023   No comments

It would seem that Russian leader have a counter-move to every move by Western countries who are increasing or thinking about increasing their support to Ukraine. To this end, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev commented on South Korean President Yoon Sok Yul's statement of his country's readiness to supply weapons to the Kiev regime. He asked: What will the South Koreans say if Russian weapons reach their northern neighbor?

This came in a post by Medvedev on his official channel on the “Telegram” application, where he wrote: There are new people willing to help our enemies, as South Korean President Yoon Sok Yul said that this country, in principle, is ready to supply weapons to the Kiev regime.

And this is given that the South Koreans have been asserting strongly, until recently, that the possibility of supplying Kiev with lethal weapons is completely excluded.

What will the people of this country say when they see the latest Russian weapons designs in their closest neighbours, our partners from North Korea?

This is called bartering.

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that South Korea's provision of military aid to Ukraine would mean Seoul's participation in the conflict to some extent.

Here is a translation of his statement:

There are new ones willing to help our enemies. South Korean President Yun Sok-yeol said that, in principle, this state is ready to supply weapons to the Kyiv regime. 

Moreover, until recently, the South Koreans ardently assured that the possibility of supplying lethal weapons to Kyiv was completely ruled out.

I wonder what the inhabitants of this country will say when they see the latest designs.

Russian weapons from their closest neighbors - our partners from the DPRK?

What is called 

Quid pro quo…

Renewed clashes between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces in Omdurman

Renewed clashes between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces in Omdurman

    Wednesday, April 19, 2023   No comments

Today, Wednesday, clashes renewed between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, despite the declared 24-hour truce, and fighting intensified between the two forces loyal to the two rival military leaders, after the truce quickly collapsed.

Continuous gunfire, artillery and air strikes rocked the capital, Khartoum, and the city of Omdurman, across the Nile.

Residents reported clashes around the army headquarters, and near the international airport.

The Sudanese army accused the RSF of not adhering to the implementation of the armistice agreement, which was concluded with international mediation for humanitarian purposes, which led to the continuation of the fighting for the fifth day in a row.

The spokesman for the Sudanese Armed Forces, Brigadier General Nabil Abdullah Ali Musa, also accused the Rapid Support Forces of "violating citizens, looting their property, and burning a sea market in the Khartoum Bahri neighborhood."

In parallel, the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces announced, in a statement today, that "the Egyptian nationals who were at Meroe Airport during the clashes have been transferred to the capital, Khartoum."

The forces said in the statement that "Egyptian nationals will be handed over when the appropriate opportunity arises, according to the conditions the country is going through."

It also announced its agreement to a truce for a period of 24 hours, starting at 6 pm today, Wednesday, and continuing until 6 pm tomorrow, Thursday,” according to the statement.

The Rapid Support Forces affirmed its "full commitment to a complete ceasefire," hoping that "the other side will abide by that."

War News In Review: Is there going to be a Ukrainian spring offensive this year?

War News In Review: Is there going to be a Ukrainian spring offensive this year?

    Monday, April 17, 2023   No comments

Since Russian troops pulled back from the Kherson region west of the Dnipro River, Ukrainian politicians built a narrative about a counter offensive that would result in their troops taking back Crimea. It was convincing enough of a sales pitch that many previously hesitant NATO nations decided to supply the Ukrainian government with almost everything they asked for, including advanced tanks, guided missiles, and more ammunitions.

The counteroffensive that was supposed to start late in winter was rebranded as the Spring Offensive. Halfway through spring 2023, and no major Ukrainian troop movement has been detected anywhere in the frontlines except the redirection of elite troops to defend the Russian offensive already underway in Bakhmut and Avdeeva (Avdiivka) fronts. 

From studying the control maps compiled by multiple sources, including Ukrainian activists, over the past three months (not the year), for every square mile reclaimed by Ukrainian forces, Russian forces gained more than 100 square miles. Importantly, the gained territories are cities and towns, including Bakhmut and Avdeeva, turned by the armed forces of Ukraine into shielded fortresses, protective trenches, and secretive tunnels and underground bunkers.

Over the past year, the only zone Russian troops were forced out of because of a Ukrainian offensive was in the northeast region of the Donbass region—Kharkiv front. There, Russian troops were pushed back from areas they wanted to control. Russian generals believed that the loss there was due to their forces being spread too thin over a long active frontline. 

The generals who suffered the loss were rotated out and new generals were appointed, many of whom had experience fighting urban warfare in Syria. Soon after taking over command, they recommended the creation of fortified, defensible frontlines. The plan was approved and troops were pulled to the west side of the major river dividing Ukraine into the Western territories and the eastern territories—Dnipro River. Russian generals did not just use the Dnipro River as a defensive line that separated them from Ukrainian troops, they destroyed the bridges once they moved to the east side; they conducted a similar tactical retreat in the northeast using the Oskil River to limit a massive attack by Ukrainian troops. These moves essentially cut the open active frontlines by about 40%, leaving them with only 60% of contact space, to which they allocated more resources.

In fact, it is conceivable that the gains in Bakhmut and Avdiivka were made possible by the adjustments made in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts—thanks to the use of natural barriers, rivers and dams, to make any large-scale attack by Ukrainian troops very risky and manageable by fewer Russian troops while the majority are utilized elsewhere. This worked in favor of Russia since it needed time to train and equip the newly mobilized troops--about 300,000 of them, many are still going through specialized training.

Russian troops have also learned from their mistakes during the early days of the military operation. They realized that drones, though have limited effects compared to fighter jets, they can nonetheless inflict huge damage on troops bogged down in open spaces.

Ukrainian troops were able to inflict some losses using Turkish drones; Ukrainians even made a song about the Bayraktar TB2 Drones. From that experience, Russians learned that cheap drones can in fact change the outcomes of battles and they can inflict crippling damage on exposed troops marching on the offense. Russian leaders not only reached out to allies to purchase drones, which was quickly used, but they ramped up production of their own drones and guided ammunition.

When all this is taken together, it becomes clear that moving heavy war machines to retake territories, in the presence of cheap drones and guided missiles that can be launched from afar, is very risky. Even if Ukraine receives enough of the promised tanks from US, EU, and NATO, these tanks will be vulnerable especially when they have to be moved across river and open spaces.

For Ukrainian troops to retake Crimea, they will have to use a large number of armored vehicles and tanks and they have to be able to cross the mentioned natural barriers. This makes the Zaporizhzhia frontline the likely path for launching an attack southward.

Ukrainian politicians may have set the bar too high for themselves. Perhaps they had to do so to be able to get more weapons from their NATO allies. However, now that they have received the weapons they asked for, they must show that they can deliver on their promises.

From what is known from the data in the public domain, if they do undertake a massive counteroffensive, they will lose the battle and such a loss may decide the outcome of the war. But because of the rhetoric they put out, and the support they received, it is possible that they know that the outcome of the war will be decided this year one way or another. That does not mean that the war will end this year; but the direction of the war will be decided this year. If a pridiction must be made, then it can be concluded that there will be no Ukrainian spring offensive this year that will result in Ukrainian forces taking back Crimean or any other major regions; and if Ukrainians muster one, they will lose the war because of it.

 

 

In a move that gives meaning to "borderless" partnership, the Kremlin announces Putin's meeting with the Chinese Defense Minister in Moscow

In a move that gives meaning to "borderless" partnership, the Kremlin announces Putin's meeting with the Chinese Defense Minister in Moscow

    Sunday, April 16, 2023   No comments

 Russia's Tass news agency quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin held a working meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu in Moscow on Sunday.

Beijing announced Li's visit to Moscow last week, saying he would meet defense officials, but made no mention of his meeting with Putin.

Peskov told TASS news agency that details of the meeting would be published later.

On Sunday, Chinese Defense Minister Li Changfu praised relations with Moscow during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.

"We have very strong relations," he said, in translated remarks carried by Russian television. It transcends military and political alliances during the Cold War era.. It is very stable.”

Russia and China announced a "borderless" partnership and tended to consolidate their economic, political and military relations since Moscow sent tens of thousands of its forces to Ukraine in February 2022.

A senior official in Kiev said on Friday that Ukrainian forces were finding an increasing number of components from China in Russian weapons used in Ukraine. China has repeatedly denied sending military equipment to Russia.

Translation of Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu statements after the meeting with Putin: 

“We have a very strong relationship. They are superior to the military-political alliances of the Cold War, built on the principles of non-alignment, non-opposition to a third party. They are very stable. Under the strategic leadership of you and Xi Jinping, we are developing cooperation in practical areas, and our relationship has already entered a new era. And we understand the responsibility that lies with our powers. Especially considering that the biggest change in a 100 years is now taking place. We stand shoulder to shoulder and work to improve the well-being of our peoples. Whereas the economic recovery is very slow. The world is very restless, peace and peaceful relations between countries are in great demand.”

A Translation of Putin's response: 

“You arrived in Russia after a visit to our country by our great friend, my friend, President of the People's Republic of China Comrade Xi Jinping. I want to emphasize once again that the visit was very productive. We also touched upon, of course, cooperation between military departments. There is a very good development of relations between our countries in all areas, in the economy, social, cultural and educational sectors. Through the military departments, we are working actively, regularly exchanging information useful to us, cooperating in the field of military-technical cooperation, conducting joint exercises, moreover, in different theaters: in the Far East region, and in Europe, both at sea and on land, and in the air. I think that this is, of course, another important area that strengthens the exclusively trusting, strategic nature of relations between Russia and China.”