China's Special Envoy for the Middle East, Zhai Jun: China looks at relations with Syria from a strategic perspective, and within a comprehensive vision for the region

China's Special Envoy for the Middle East, Zhai Jun: China looks at relations with Syria from a strategic perspective, and within a comprehensive vision for the region

    Saturday, April 29, 2023   No comments

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad discussed, today, Saturday, during his meeting with the Chinese government's special envoy to the Middle East, Zhai Jun, the Syrian-Chinese relations, common perceptions of the bilateral relationship, and China's vital role throughout this region.

President al-Assad pointed out that the most important positive change that occurred in the world was represented by the Chinese role, "which is escalating in a calm and balanced manner."

President al-Assad praised the Chinese mediation, which culminated in the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the improvement of relations between them, in a way that will be reflected in the stability of the entire Middle East region, as he described it.

He also pointed to the importance of the Belt and Road Initiative in achieving economic development and cooperation, stressing that "confrontation has always been primarily economic. Therefore, liberation from the restriction of dealing in US dollars has become necessary."

He added, "This role is presenting a new model in politics, economy and culture, especially as it is based on the principle of achieving stability, peace and profit for all," noting that "the whole world today needs the Chinese presence, politically and economically, in order to restore balance to the global situation, especially In light of the Russian-Chinese relations, and the strong international space that the BRICS alliance represents, capable of creating a multipolar international system.

He pointed out that the BRICS countries can play a leading role in this field, in addition to the option of adopting the Chinese yuan in trade transactions between countries.

Al-Assad stressed that Syria does not forget that China stood by its side during the war in order to defend Syrian sovereignty, in accordance with international law and the United Nations Charter, and that it appreciates all the assistance provided by Beijing during the earthquake period.

For his part, the Special Envoy, Zhai Jun, conveyed to President Assad the greetings of Chinese President Xi Jinping, and his keenness to achieve greater results in bilateral relations, stressing that China views relations with Syria from a strategic perspective, and within a comprehensive vision for the region.

Zhai Jun expressed his country's satisfaction with the victory achieved by the Syrian people in their battle against terrorism, "because it is a victory for all countries that defend their sovereignty and dignity," stressing that Beijing "will stand with Syria in international forums, in word and deed, in defense of truth and justice, and will support its battle." Against hegemony, terrorism and external interference.

Zhai Jun expressed China's support for the positive developments regarding the rapprochement path between Syria and the Arab countries.

Strong reaction by Medvedev to South Korea's readiness to supply Kiev with weapons: What will the South Koreans say if Russian weapons reach their northern neighbor?

Strong reaction by Medvedev to South Korea's readiness to supply Kiev with weapons: What will the South Koreans say if Russian weapons reach their northern neighbor?

    Wednesday, April 19, 2023   No comments

It would seem that Russian leader have a counter-move to every move by Western countries who are increasing or thinking about increasing their support to Ukraine. To this end, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev commented on South Korean President Yoon Sok Yul's statement of his country's readiness to supply weapons to the Kiev regime. He asked: What will the South Koreans say if Russian weapons reach their northern neighbor?

This came in a post by Medvedev on his official channel on the “Telegram” application, where he wrote: There are new people willing to help our enemies, as South Korean President Yoon Sok Yul said that this country, in principle, is ready to supply weapons to the Kiev regime.

And this is given that the South Koreans have been asserting strongly, until recently, that the possibility of supplying Kiev with lethal weapons is completely excluded.

What will the people of this country say when they see the latest Russian weapons designs in their closest neighbours, our partners from North Korea?

This is called bartering.

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that South Korea's provision of military aid to Ukraine would mean Seoul's participation in the conflict to some extent.

Here is a translation of his statement:

There are new ones willing to help our enemies. South Korean President Yun Sok-yeol said that, in principle, this state is ready to supply weapons to the Kyiv regime. 

Moreover, until recently, the South Koreans ardently assured that the possibility of supplying lethal weapons to Kyiv was completely ruled out.

I wonder what the inhabitants of this country will say when they see the latest designs.

Russian weapons from their closest neighbors - our partners from the DPRK?

What is called 

Quid pro quo…

War News In Review: Is there going to be a Ukrainian spring offensive this year?

War News In Review: Is there going to be a Ukrainian spring offensive this year?

    Monday, April 17, 2023   No comments

Since Russian troops pulled back from the Kherson region west of the Dnipro River, Ukrainian politicians built a narrative about a counter offensive that would result in their troops taking back Crimea. It was convincing enough of a sales pitch that many previously hesitant NATO nations decided to supply the Ukrainian government with almost everything they asked for, including advanced tanks, guided missiles, and more ammunitions.

The counteroffensive that was supposed to start late in winter was rebranded as the Spring Offensive. Halfway through spring 2023, and no major Ukrainian troop movement has been detected anywhere in the frontlines except the redirection of elite troops to defend the Russian offensive already underway in Bakhmut and Avdeeva (Avdiivka) fronts. 

From studying the control maps compiled by multiple sources, including Ukrainian activists, over the past three months (not the year), for every square mile reclaimed by Ukrainian forces, Russian forces gained more than 100 square miles. Importantly, the gained territories are cities and towns, including Bakhmut and Avdeeva, turned by the armed forces of Ukraine into shielded fortresses, protective trenches, and secretive tunnels and underground bunkers.

Over the past year, the only zone Russian troops were forced out of because of a Ukrainian offensive was in the northeast region of the Donbass region—Kharkiv front. There, Russian troops were pushed back from areas they wanted to control. Russian generals believed that the loss there was due to their forces being spread too thin over a long active frontline. 

The generals who suffered the loss were rotated out and new generals were appointed, many of whom had experience fighting urban warfare in Syria. Soon after taking over command, they recommended the creation of fortified, defensible frontlines. The plan was approved and troops were pulled to the west side of the major river dividing Ukraine into the Western territories and the eastern territories—Dnipro River. Russian generals did not just use the Dnipro River as a defensive line that separated them from Ukrainian troops, they destroyed the bridges once they moved to the east side; they conducted a similar tactical retreat in the northeast using the Oskil River to limit a massive attack by Ukrainian troops. These moves essentially cut the open active frontlines by about 40%, leaving them with only 60% of contact space, to which they allocated more resources.

In fact, it is conceivable that the gains in Bakhmut and Avdiivka were made possible by the adjustments made in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts—thanks to the use of natural barriers, rivers and dams, to make any large-scale attack by Ukrainian troops very risky and manageable by fewer Russian troops while the majority are utilized elsewhere. This worked in favor of Russia since it needed time to train and equip the newly mobilized troops--about 300,000 of them, many are still going through specialized training.

Russian troops have also learned from their mistakes during the early days of the military operation. They realized that drones, though have limited effects compared to fighter jets, they can nonetheless inflict huge damage on troops bogged down in open spaces.

Ukrainian troops were able to inflict some losses using Turkish drones; Ukrainians even made a song about the Bayraktar TB2 Drones. From that experience, Russians learned that cheap drones can in fact change the outcomes of battles and they can inflict crippling damage on exposed troops marching on the offense. Russian leaders not only reached out to allies to purchase drones, which was quickly used, but they ramped up production of their own drones and guided ammunition.

When all this is taken together, it becomes clear that moving heavy war machines to retake territories, in the presence of cheap drones and guided missiles that can be launched from afar, is very risky. Even if Ukraine receives enough of the promised tanks from US, EU, and NATO, these tanks will be vulnerable especially when they have to be moved across river and open spaces.

For Ukrainian troops to retake Crimea, they will have to use a large number of armored vehicles and tanks and they have to be able to cross the mentioned natural barriers. This makes the Zaporizhzhia frontline the likely path for launching an attack southward.

Ukrainian politicians may have set the bar too high for themselves. Perhaps they had to do so to be able to get more weapons from their NATO allies. However, now that they have received the weapons they asked for, they must show that they can deliver on their promises.

From what is known from the data in the public domain, if they do undertake a massive counteroffensive, they will lose the battle and such a loss may decide the outcome of the war. But because of the rhetoric they put out, and the support they received, it is possible that they know that the outcome of the war will be decided this year one way or another. That does not mean that the war will end this year; but the direction of the war will be decided this year. If a pridiction must be made, then it can be concluded that there will be no Ukrainian spring offensive this year that will result in Ukrainian forces taking back Crimean or any other major regions; and if Ukrainians muster one, they will lose the war because of it.

 

 

In a move that gives meaning to "borderless" partnership, the Kremlin announces Putin's meeting with the Chinese Defense Minister in Moscow

In a move that gives meaning to "borderless" partnership, the Kremlin announces Putin's meeting with the Chinese Defense Minister in Moscow

    Sunday, April 16, 2023   No comments

 Russia's Tass news agency quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin held a working meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu in Moscow on Sunday.

Beijing announced Li's visit to Moscow last week, saying he would meet defense officials, but made no mention of his meeting with Putin.

Peskov told TASS news agency that details of the meeting would be published later.

On Sunday, Chinese Defense Minister Li Changfu praised relations with Moscow during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.

"We have very strong relations," he said, in translated remarks carried by Russian television. It transcends military and political alliances during the Cold War era.. It is very stable.”

Russia and China announced a "borderless" partnership and tended to consolidate their economic, political and military relations since Moscow sent tens of thousands of its forces to Ukraine in February 2022.

A senior official in Kiev said on Friday that Ukrainian forces were finding an increasing number of components from China in Russian weapons used in Ukraine. China has repeatedly denied sending military equipment to Russia.

Translation of Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu statements after the meeting with Putin: 

“We have a very strong relationship. They are superior to the military-political alliances of the Cold War, built on the principles of non-alignment, non-opposition to a third party. They are very stable. Under the strategic leadership of you and Xi Jinping, we are developing cooperation in practical areas, and our relationship has already entered a new era. And we understand the responsibility that lies with our powers. Especially considering that the biggest change in a 100 years is now taking place. We stand shoulder to shoulder and work to improve the well-being of our peoples. Whereas the economic recovery is very slow. The world is very restless, peace and peaceful relations between countries are in great demand.”

A Translation of Putin's response: 

“You arrived in Russia after a visit to our country by our great friend, my friend, President of the People's Republic of China Comrade Xi Jinping. I want to emphasize once again that the visit was very productive. We also touched upon, of course, cooperation between military departments. There is a very good development of relations between our countries in all areas, in the economy, social, cultural and educational sectors. Through the military departments, we are working actively, regularly exchanging information useful to us, cooperating in the field of military-technical cooperation, conducting joint exercises, moreover, in different theaters: in the Far East region, and in Europe, both at sea and on land, and in the air. I think that this is, of course, another important area that strengthens the exclusively trusting, strategic nature of relations between Russia and China.”

media review: German companies expand their investments in China

media review: German companies expand their investments in China

    Wednesday, April 12, 2023   No comments

The New York Times reported that some German companies are expanding in China and are reluctant to leave the huge market they need to finance operations in Berlin.

The newspaper added, "At a time when Washington seeks to stifle economic relations with Beijing, two powerful engines of the German economy, Volkswagen and the chemical company (BASF), are expanding their huge Chinese investments."

Volkswagen, which has more than 40 factories in China, has announced a new effort to design models according to the wishes of Chinese customers, and will invest billions in local partnerships and production sites.

And BASF, with 30 production facilities in China, is pushing ahead with plans to spend €10 billion on a new chemical production complex that would rival in size its huge headquarters in Ludwigshafen.

As the American newspaper pointed out, "Across Germany, executives know that these investments run counter to efforts by the United States to isolate China economically. They argue that revenue from China is essential for their businesses to thrive and grow in Europe."

"The profits from China have allowed the company to offset losses from Europe's high energy costs and strict environmental rules," said Martin Brodermüller, CEO of BASF.

According to the New York Times, close trade relations are now under scrutiny in Berlin, at the behest of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, knowing that there was a political proposal to reset the country's relationship with China, its largest trading partner.

According to the newspaper, a study conducted by the Kiel Institute showed that “separation from China would be very costly for the whole of Europe, but in particular for Germany.” About 131 billion euros, and it may cost more, if China responds with other steps.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier had said earlier that Germany should "learn its lesson" from Russia's war on Ukraine. The lesson is that "we have to reduce our dependence on others, wherever we can". "This is especially true of China," he added.

Why and how is Beijing becoming the Mecca of Geopolitics?

Why and how is Beijing becoming the Mecca of Geopolitics?

    Sunday, April 09, 2023   No comments

Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira says Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lulu will meet with his Chinese counterpart in a few days, to exchange views on the war in Ukraine in particular.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula will head to China on Tuesday, after his visit was postponed due to pneumonia, to restore his country to the international arena.

This official visit of the Brazilian president to his country's largest trading partner was scheduled to take place between March 25 and 31, but doctors recommended that it be postponed due to "mild pneumonia" from which he has now recovered.

On Friday, Lula will meet his counterpart Xi Jinping to "exchange views on the war in Ukraine" in particular, Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira told AFP and other international news agencies.

This official visit to China is the fourth for the Brazilian president, who began his third term in January, after being president from 2003 to 2010.

The Brazilian president promised to return his country "to the heart of the new global geopolitics", after the isolation it experienced during the rule of his far-right predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.

In Beijing, Lula hopes to play again the role of mediator who contributed to reaching the nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States during his second term (2007-2010).

Brazil, like China, refused to impose sanctions on Moscow, and at the end of January it had drawn up a still vague proposal regarding the mediation of several countries in the war in Ukraine.

The Brazilian president said at the time that he was "confident" of the chances of success of this proposal, expressing his hope to "establish" the group of countries after his return from China.

On March 25, Celso Amorim, the Brazilian president's senior adviser on international affairs, met in the Kremlin with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who is visiting Brazil on April 17.

"To say that the doors are open (to peace talks) would be an exaggeration, but to say that they are closed is also not true," Amorim told CNN Brasil, on Monday, when asked about the outcome of the meeting with Putin.

However, the Kremlin ruled out "any prospect of a political settlement" mediated by China, despite the consensus expressed by Putin and his counterpart Xi during the latter's visit to Moscow at the end of March.

Before his meeting with Xi on Friday in Beijing, Lula will head to Shanghai on Thursday to attend the inauguration of former leftist President of Brazil Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016) as head of the New Development Bank, also known as the "BRICS Bank".

In 2006, during his first term, the "BRICS" group of emerging economies was created, which includes Brazil, India, China, Russia and South Africa.

Lula's visit to China will mainly deal with international political issues, as the economic aspect was dealt with a week ago, during the date previously set for the visit, when more than 500 Brazilian company heads, from most of the industrial agricultural sector, traveled to the Asian country.

More than 20 cooperation agreements have been signed, one of which allows their trade deals to be conducted directly, exchanging the yuan for the riyal and vice versa instead of relying on the dollar. Bilateral trade volume reached 150 billion dollars last year, with 89.7 billion dollars of Brazilian exports to China.

On his way back to the country, Lula will head to the UAE on Saturday for a one-day official visit.

China's time to become a global powerhouse is now, how will it manage its new role?

China's time to become a global powerhouse is now, how will it manage its new role?

    Wednesday, April 05, 2023   No comments

The West’s unlimited military support to Ukraine, its unbalanced Middle East relations, its ambiguous stance on the status of Taiwan, and its failure to honor its nuclear deal with Iran are propelling China to become a global leader. These three news stories should make the case for the role China will play in this decade.

_____________

How China sees the expansion of NATO? 

This editorial in a Chinese media outlet close to the ruling class of China provides the answer.

 Finland joins NATO; Europe's overall security landscape more 'precarious'

With a Finnish flag rising first time outside the NATO headquarters, the Nordic nation officially became NATO's 31st member country at a meeting of the US-led bloc's foreign ministers, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on Tuesday in Brussels, a historic shift away from the Nordic nation's traditional policy of neutrality, which Chinese experts believe now pushes Finland to the forefront against Russia and may spur Moscow to boost its nuclear deployment, thus making Europe's overall security landscape even more precarious.

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Political division in Taiwan regarding the position of Beijing and Washington

While Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen was visiting the United States, her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou was in China, where the country's two main parties were debating which superpower would side with her.

 

During a long overseas trip to the United States, the Taiwanese president delivered a consistent and blunt message about countering Chinese threats: Taiwan needs the United States to be supportive, the newspaper reported.

 

But while she was garnering American support, her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, was working on a very different agenda, and is currently on a tour of China, the first former president to ever make such a visit, according to the newspaper.

 

She noted that the symbolism of Ma Ying-jeou's visit to China was "amazing" and stood in stark contrast to Tsai's travels.

 

"Strongly echoing the rhetoric used by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Ma Jiu invoked the memory of China's past humiliation at the hands of foreign invaders, during a visit last week to the mausoleum of Sun Yat-sen, the founder of the Republic of China who overthrew the last emperor in 1911," she added.

 

Speaking of a delegation of Taiwanese youths he was accompanying, Ma Jiu said that they "will strive peacefully to revitalize the relationship with China, and sincerely hope that the two sides of the Strait will make joint efforts to achieve peace and prevent war."

 

According to the newspaper, the conflicting flights indicate that the question of Taiwan's belonging in the world may reach a point of crisis, amid the most intense hostility between China and the United States.

 

Earlier in the day, the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration in Fujian announced that military authorities had begun patrolling the Taiwan Strait, following reports of a meeting between Taiwan's President and US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

 

And Tsai arrived, on Tuesday evening, in Los Angeles, USA, to hold this meeting, after a diplomatic tour in Central America.

 

McCarthy had planned to follow the example of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat who visited Taiwan last August, angering China.

 

Yesterday, Chinese diplomacy saw that the meeting between the two parties would "cause more damage" to relations between Beijing and Washington.

 

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Macron: China can play a major role in achieving peace in Ukraine

 

French President Emmanuel Macron said today, Wednesday, at the start of a three-day state visit to China that Beijing can "play a major role" in finding a "path leading to peace" in Ukraine.

 

Macron told the French community in the Chinese capital: "China has proposed a peace plan, thus showing a will to take responsibility and try to forge a path leading to peace."

 

Macron added, "This war has trampled many of the principles of the United Nations Charter, which we, as members of the Security Council, must firmly defend."

He continued, "I see that defending it also means progressing together, and trying to find a path that leads to peace."

 

Last February, China proposed its plan for peace in Ukraine, which consists of 12 clauses that include calls for a cease-fire, respect for the legitimate interests of all countries in the field of security, and a settlement of the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.

 

It is noteworthy that French President Emmanuel Macron arrived, today, Wednesday, in China for a 3-day visit, according to what was announced by the Elysee Palace, on his first trip to this country since 2019.

 

Macron will hold talks, tomorrow, Thursday, with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in part, and will move to Canton in southern China on Friday.

 

Before leaving for China, the French President held a telephone conversation with his American counterpart, Joe Biden. During which they expressed their hope that "China will engage in joint efforts to accelerate an end to the war in Ukraine and establish a sustainable peace," according to French officials.

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Reuters: The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iran will meet in Beijing tomorrow

An Iranian official and a Saudi-owned newspaper reported that the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iran will meet in Beijing tomorrow, as the two regional powers seek to arrange the next steps for their diplomatic rapprochement, under a Chinese-brokered deal.

 "The two chief envoys agreed to meet on April 6 in Beijing, because China facilitated the agreement," a senior Iranian official told Reuters.

   

How do US and EU sanctions work?

How do US and EU sanctions work?

    Monday, April 03, 2023   No comments

US Senator explains how US sanctions work and why they work they way they do and he predicted US sanctions will not be able to be deploy in five to six years.

The key to success of US sanctions is that the US dollar is used in trade between nations; the more countries trade in other currencies the less effective the sanctions regimes will be.

The 36th summit of the African Union.. What is on its agenda?

The 36th summit of the African Union.. What is on its agenda?

    Saturday, February 18, 2023   No comments

A number of challenges are facing the African summit, most notably considering the file of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, as well as the frozen memberships of countries, including Sudan.

There will also be closed sessions to adopt the agenda, and to hear reports on the state of peace and security, and the African Free Trade Area, in addition to other files related to the evaluation of the implementation plan for the first decade of Africa's Vision 2063, and the reform of the United Nations Security Council.

In a speech, the Chairman of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki, said, "What is required is to activate the African Free Trade Area quickly to meet the various challenges," adding that the continent's partners "impose strict conditions for financing our various projects."

Faki also called for "the necessity of reforming global governance that excludes Africa from the Security Council," noting that "some of the goals adopted by the continent have not been achieved due to the lack of political will among some."

The Chairperson of the African Union Commission warned of the expansion of terrorism in Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad, explaining the need for international solidarity with the affected countries.

For his part, the Ethiopian Prime Minister said in his speech that "Africa must be represented in the Security Council with at least one permanent seat and two non-permanent seats."

In turn, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, "The Russian-Ukrainian war has directly affected the lives of the African people, who bear the greatest challenges," he said.

Guterres considered that "Africa needs international financing to relieve the burden of debt burdened with it," calling on the other hand for the return of the democratic path in Sudan, Mali and Burkina Faso.

And the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry announced earlier that the leaders of 36 African countries confirmed their attendance at the summit, which begins with an open session that includes several speakers, most notably Senegalese President Macky Sall, head of the ending session of the Union, and President of the Comoros Ghazali Osmani, head of the next session, in addition to the Secretary-General of the United Nations.

In a message to African leaders, Chinese President Xi Jinping said Saturday that he stands ready to work with leaders of African countries to build a high-level China-Africa community with a shared future.  Xi made the pledge in his message to the 36th African Union (AU) Summit, in which he extended congratulations to African countries and the African people on the opening of the summit, according to Chinese media reporting.

Iran builds hypersonic ballistic missile

Iran builds hypersonic ballistic missile

    Thursday, November 10, 2022   No comments

Iran has produced a hypersonic ballistic missile for the first time, as announced by the commander of the Aerospace Force of the Revolutionary Guards, General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, today.

"This new missile can penetrate all missile defense systems, and I do not think that the technology capable of confronting it will be found for decades to come," Iran's Fars news agency quoted Hajizadeh as saying.

He continued, "This missile targets the enemy's anti-missile systems, and is considered a great generational leap in the field of missiles."

Hypersonic missiles are known for their high maneuverability while in motion, and these missiles can change their trajectory while moving very quickly and make their movement difficult to track and predict.

Jane's Bulletin stated that hypersonic missiles, which fly at speeds of more than six thousand kilometers per hour, pose a challenge to radar designers because of their high speed and maneuverability.

Several countries are seeking to develop hypersonic missiles, while Russia appears to be advanced in this field with several types of these missiles.

Reactions:

The Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, said today, in an interview with Agence France-Presse in Sharm el-Sheikh, that the manufacture of an Iranian hypersonic ballistic missile, exacerbates international "concerns" about Iran.

Grossi said on the sidelines of the COP27 Climate Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh that this issue is not within the agency's competence, "but we cannot look at things in isolation (...) These announcements exacerbate fears and increase attention to the Iranian nuclear file." "It must have an effect," he said.

Background:

In spite of sanctions; or perhaps because of sanctions, Iran was able to develop an indigenous military program consisting of drones, missiles, and marine vessels that the world knows very little about. The efficacy of the drones was tested recently in a battlefield crowned by weapons supplied by the most advanced nation-states in the world.