The U.S. Problem in Lebanon and Syria

The U.S. Problem in Lebanon and Syria

    Monday, August 25, 2025   No comments

The United States’ position in Lebanon suffers from a fundamental contradiction. On the one hand, Washington insists that all weapons in Lebanon must be under the control of a strong central government. On the other hand, in neighboring Syria, the U.S. promotes a weak federal system that allows minorities—such as the Druze in the south and the Kurds in the north—to maintain their own weapons and autonomous security structures.

Logically, if the principle is that all arms should be monopolized by the state, then that principle must apply everywhere. By carving out exceptions in Syria under the pretext of “protecting minorities” and “preserving diversity,” the U.S. sets a precedent that can just as easily apply to Lebanon—a country already deeply divided along ethnic, religious, and sectarian fault lines. Lebanon fought a devastating 15-year civil war and still struggles to forge a national identity that transcends its sectarian divisions.

The deeper problem is that neither Syria nor Lebanon currently has a government that can claim full legitimacy. In Syria, today’s de facto rulers are not the product of popular mandate; they are rulers by force of war, caretakers until a fair election and an inclusive system produce a legitimate government. Lebanon, likewise, is governed not by leaders with genuine popular legitimacy but by a fragile power-sharing arrangement codified in the Ta’if Agreement. This deal distributed power along sectarian lines—giving the presidency to Christians, the prime minister’s office to Sunnis, and the speakership of parliament to Shia. It is, in effect, a three-headed system where no faction can claim full authority. Lebanon has even gone years without a president at all, underscoring the fragility of the arrangement.

A government that lacks legitimacy cannot be strong unless it imposes its will by force—and that is precisely why no group in Lebanon will truly give up its weapons. The same logic applies in Syria: until a representative system is built, demands for disarmament will be met with suspicion and resistance.

The bottom line is this: a country where power is historically acquired through war and violence cannot be remade into a cohesive state simply by granting a central government exclusive control over weapons. The evidence from recent history is overwhelming:

• Libya remains fragmented into three regions, each governed separately.

• Yemen, despite years of Saudi bombardment designed to enforce central authority, is divided into multiple competing power centers.

• Iraq, even after more than $3 trillion in U.S. investment and years of institution-building, still has a weak central government overshadowed by regional and sectarian power brokers. When ISIS surged in 2014, it was not the Iraqi state that rallied, but a new paramilitary force created by a fatwa from Shia religious authorities.

Countries torn apart by war rarely reunify quickly under strong central governments. More often, they remain weak or fragmented for decades. Even Germany—with its long history of national unity—took decades to reunify after division.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. attempt to engineer a powerful central government in Lebanon, while simultaneously promoting decentralization in Syria, is incoherent. No Lebanese Shia faction will willingly surrender its weapons to a government it views as illegitimate and incapable of protecting them—especially when extremist groups across the border in Syria have massacred minorities for not being Sunni.

If Washington continues to push for a centralized Lebanese government without real sovereignty or inclusive legitimacy, it risks destabilizing one of the most volatile regions in the world. The result may not be stability at all, but rather the ignition of another civil war in Lebanon—unless, of course, that is the unspoken objective of U.S. policy.

Syria Reaches Agreement to Integrate SDF into State Institutions

Syria Reaches Agreement to Integrate SDF into State Institutions

    Monday, March 10, 2025   No comments

It seems that the massacres in the coastal region of Syria compelled the governing regime and other factions to work out their differences faster.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), established in October 2015, is a coalition primarily composed of Kurdish fighters, with some Arab and other minority groups, operating in northeastern Syria. The SDF has been a key ally of the United States in the fight against ISIS, receiving significant military and logistical support. The group has also been involved in the establishment of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), which has governed large parts of the region since the Syrian government lost control during the civil war.

The SDF's relationship with the Syrian government has been complex, marked by both conflict and occasional cooperation. The Syrian government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, has long viewed the SDF with suspicion, considering it a separatist movement that threatens Syria's territorial integrity. However, with the decline of ISIS and the shifting geopolitical landscape, including the partial withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria, there has been increasing pressure on both sides to find a political solution.

Summary of the Agreement:

On Monday evening, the Syrian Presidency announced that an agreement had been reached to integrate the SDF into state institutions. The agreement aims to address key issues to ensure the rights of all Syrian citizens and maintain the country's unity. The executive committees are expected to implement the agreement by the end of the current year.

Key Points of the Agreement:

• Ceasefire: A nationwide ceasefire across all Syrian territories.
• Equal Rights: Guaranteeing the rights of all Syrians in state institutions based on merit, regardless of religious or ethnic background.
• Kurdish Rights: Recognizing the Kurdish community as an integral part of Syria, ensuring their constitutional rights and citizenship.
• Political Participation: Ensuring the representation and participation of all Syrians in the political process.
• Institutional Integration: Merging all civil and military institutions in northeastern Syria, including border crossings, airports, and oil and gas fields, under state administration.
• Return of Displaced Persons: Ensuring the safe return of all displaced Syrians and their protection by the state.
• Security Cooperation: Supporting the Syrian government in combating remnants of the previous regime and other threats to national security.
• Rejection of Division: Opposing calls for partition, hate speech, and attempts to sow discord among Syrian communities.
• Diplomatic Efforts:
• Earlier reports from informed sources indicated that Western diplomatic efforts and visits were underway to push for an agreement between Damascus and the SDF. These efforts aimed to prevent ISIS from exploiting the power vacuum following the fall of the previous regime or the anticipated U.S. withdrawal.

Previous reported

Last month, media outlets leaked information about a preliminary agreement between the SDF and the new Syrian administration. The leaked agreement outlined the integration of the SDF and security institutions of the Autonomous Administration into the structure of the Syrian army, as well as the reactivation of state civil and service institutions in northern and eastern Syria.

The agreement marks a significant step towards resolving the longstanding conflict between the Syrian government and the SDF. By integrating the SDF into state institutions, the Syrian government aims to strengthen its control over the northeastern region while addressing the rights and representation of the Kurdish community and other minorities. The success of this agreement will depend on the effective implementation of its terms and the continued cooperation of all parties involved.

More background

The recent agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian government, facilitated by US mediation, marks a potentially significant turning point in the Syrian conflict. This preliminary agreement, as outlined in the provided article, aims to cease military operations and foster national reconciliation. However, its implementation faces numerous complexities and uncertainties.

Central to this agreement is the integration of the SDF into Syrian state institutions. This move, as stated by the Syrian presidency, signifies a crucial step towards unifying the country. The agreement addresses several critical issues, including the deployment of Syrian government forces along the border, the resolution of prison issues through joint councils, and the management of educational matters, particularly for students who have studied the Kurdish language. Crucially, the SDF will maintain its responsibility for dealing with the ISIS threat, indicating a continued role in regional security.  

The primary objective of this agreement, according to Kurdish sources, is to halt the ongoing war and facilitate the safe return of displaced persons. The Kurdish sources emphasized the need to stop demographic changes in areas like Afrin, Serekaniye, and Tel Abyad, reflecting a commitment to restoring the pre-conflict demographic balance. Furthermore, the agreement seeks to ensure the inclusion of Kurds and all Syrian components in the political process, promoting a more inclusive and representative governance structure. 

Statements from key figures highlight the significance of this agreement. The SDF spokesperson stressed its preliminary nature and the US's essential role in its formation. The co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Council emphasized that the agreement is a step towards national reconciliation and transitional justice. The Syrian presidency’s announcement of the integration of the SDF into state institutions underscores the government’s commitment to this process.  

However, the situation in northern Syria adds a layer of complexity. Turkey's military buildup in the regions of Tishrin and Qaraqozaq signals a potential escalation, threatening the stability of the region and the implementation of the agreement. This external factor highlights the delicate balance that must be maintained to achieve lasting peace.

The agreement between the SDF and the Syrian government represents a crucial step towards ending the conflict and fostering national reconciliation. However, the agreement's success hinges on overcoming significant challenges, including the implementation of its provisions, managing external pressures, and ensuring the participation of all stakeholders. While the agreement offers a glimmer of hope for a more stable and unified Syria, its long-term impact remains to be seen.

The Escalation of Violence in Syria: A Path to Deepen Syria's fragmentation

The Escalation of Violence in Syria: A Path to Deepen Syria's fragmentation

    Monday, March 10, 2025   No comments

Syria has witnessed its most violent outbreak of conflict since the ousting of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, with over 1,300 deaths reported in just three days. The clashes between forces aligned with Syria’s new government and remnants of Assad’s loyalists have resulted in widespread civilian casualties, particularly affecting the Alawite community, which previously supported the former regime. The intensity of the violence has drawn international concern, as reports of field executions, communal massacres, and forced displacement emerge.

The conflict ignited when HTS-led government forces attempted to arrest what it calls members of the former regime. The attempt was met by armed resistance, which escalated when government brought it more of its armed militias from nearby Idlib, most of whom are not Syrian fighters. While the government aimed to restore order, retaliatory attacks by armed groups have further escalated tensions, leading to mass executions and acts of revenge against Alawite civilians. Human rights organizations, including the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the Syrian Network for Human Rights, have documented atrocities, including systematic killings and the destruction of homes.

Eyewitnesses and video evidence reveal harrowing acts of violence, with reports of militants conducting executions and vowing to "purify" Syria of perceived enemies. Civilians, including elderly residents and families, have been caught in the crossfire, facing persecution irrespective of their allegiance to Assad’s regime. Many Alawites, who have distanced themselves from the former government, continue to suffer the consequences of sectarian retaliation.

Despite Syria’s Ministry of Defense announcing the end of security operations, reports from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights indicate that armed groups continue to commit atrocities against civilians in the coastal regions. Armed factions, some of whom entered towns alongside government forces, have been accused of looting, arson, and indiscriminate violence in areas such as Harisun in Baniyas. Residents from multiple villages in Latakia have pleaded for protection as killings, kidnappings, and destruction persist, highlighting the deteriorating security situation.

Survivors and local witnesses describe an ongoing campaign of ethnic cleansing, with entire villages being targeted. Calls for international intervention and independent investigations have grown louder as displaced civilians report being too afraid to return home. Some refugees have sought shelter in the Russian-operated Hmeimim Airbase, refusing to leave due to ongoing threats from armed groups. The humanitarian crisis is worsening, with severe shortages of food, electricity, and water reported across affected regions, exacerbating the suffering of civilians trapped in the conflict.

Syria’s interim leadership has vowed to hold accountable those responsible for the civilian massacres and has called for national unity. However, the government faces significant challenges in maintaining security, especially as extremist factions continue to exploit the instability. Al-Sharaa’s administration, which emerged from an Islamist insurgency, faces scrutiny over its ability to protect minorities and establish a functioning security apparatus.

The United States has condemned the extremist violence, particularly the involvement of foreign jihadists, and has expressed solidarity with Syria’s diverse religious and ethnic minorities, including Christians, Druze, Alawites, and Kurds. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has urged Syria’s interim authorities to ensure accountability for those responsible for the massacres.

The ongoing bloodshed underscores the fragile nature of Syria’s post-Assad transition and highlights the deep-seated sectarian divisions that continue to fuel violence. Without immediate and effective intervention, Syria risks descending further into chaos, jeopardizing any hopes for stability and peace in the war-torn nation.

Morocco's Islamist Benkirane: The role of Islamists is not to seek power

Morocco's Islamist Benkirane: The role of Islamists is not to seek power

    Monday, November 25, 2024   No comments

Morocco is a country of political contradiction, and the interview with a former head of government show how and why.

Former Moroccan Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane stated in an interview with Aljazeera that he has a philosophy that others do not agree with him on, as he does not believe in the saying that “Islam is the solution.” In this context, he considers that the saying “Islam is the solution” contains a contradiction, and asks, “Why is Islam the solution? People’s problems are related to housing, good education, good health services, and other demands.” Benkirane opposed the idea that Islamists can dispute power and rule according to Islamic law, and this is in his view a “dead end,” adding that “what Islamists say is not what they call for: Islam is the solution.” 

Former Moroccan Prime Minister, who was a guest on the program “Al-Muqabla,” confirmed that he has a philosophy that others do not agree with him on, as he does not believe in the saying that “Islam is the solution.”

Benkirane, who is the Secretary-General of the Justice and Development Party, considers “the conflict between Islamists and the ruling authority a sin,” because it leads Islamists into the labyrinths of seekers of authority throughout history, and whoever seeks authority and rule will either be killed, imprisoned, marginalized, or victorious and ruled. Benkirane believes that the Islamists made another mistake when they interpreted what happened to them in the way of seeking the Sultan as a trial for the sake of God, and he says that this prevented them from paying attention to their mistakes.

The former Moroccan Prime Minister stresses that the role of Islamists is not to seek the Sultan and rule, proving his position by saying, “I did not find in the Holy Quran or in the hadith of the Messenger, may God bless him and grant him peace, anything called seeking the Sultan or rule,” and he noted that he only found the saying of God Almighty: “I only want reform as much as I am able,” meaning that the role of the Muslim is to contribute to reform.

On the other hand, the former Moroccan Prime Minister addresses the issue of normalization between Morocco and the Israeli occupation in his speech on December 10, 2020.

Benkirane responded to a question about the signing of the normalization agreement by an Islamist party (the Justice and Development Party): “We were surprised, as was the whole world, by the signing of Saadeddine El Othmani (the Prime Minister), and none of us had any knowledge, and I personally did not know.”

On the other hand, the Moroccan Islamist described the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation as “a gift from God Almighty,” because “the Palestinian cause was almost over and Al-Aqsa Mosque was almost lost,” and he considered that the lessons of the Al-Aqsa Flood are endless. Benkirane also reviewed his political career that began in the sixties and seventies, where he began this path in the ranks of the left, then joined the “Islamic Youth” organization in 1976, from which he separated in 1981, to establish with others the “Islamic Group,” and among those who were with him were Mohamed Yatim, Saadeddine Othmani, and Abdullah Baha, leading to the establishment of the “Islamic Group Association” in 1983.

Although politicians who participate in the political process in the country perpetuate the myth sharing political power or the power of the people derived from "elections", the reality points to the fact that all power rests with the King. As colloquial language in Morocco shows, the King's palace is the store of power, makhzen, and the power of the king comes from God, which explains why a 10 year old son of the king is more powerful than an elected head of government: Moroccans bow and kiss the hand of the child future king, and that includes the head of the government who also must bow and kiss the hand of the child.

Aware of problem of seeing a child's hand kissed by everyone including elected leaders, but still wanting to benefit from the gesture of obedience at the same time, the King's Palace launched a PR campaign claiming that the prince does not want to have his hand kissed. If that was the case, the Palace could have made it against protocol to even attempt to kiss the hand. But then, that would force the King to give up a source of power. So, instead, they decided on having their cake and eating at the same time... a common strategy that has been used by the monarch in Morocco to continue to rule and force Moroccans to submit to his rule.

Media review: The Gaza war creates a new Islamic front and threatens American influence--Foreign Affairs

Media review: The Gaza war creates a new Islamic front and threatens American influence--Foreign Affairs

    Saturday, February 10, 2024   No comments

The American magazine Foreign Affairs published a long article dealing with the impact of the Gaza war on the Islamic and Arab worlds, saying that this war created a new Islamic front that may be the greatest challenge facing America.

The article, written by Toby Matthiesen, a senior lecturer in global religious studies at the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom, explained that the Gaza war is no longer limited to the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel.

He pointed out the extension of this war and the participation of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” that includes Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen in it, and it has gone beyond that until it has now become, 4 months after its beginning, a strong unifying force for Sunnis and Shiites and has awakened a comprehensive Islamic front that includes the Sunni Arab masses, who are opposed by a majority. Overwhelming, Arab normalization.

The article added that for the United States and its partners, this development constitutes a strategic challenge that goes far beyond confronting the Iraqi factions and the Houthis with targeted strikes. By bringing together a region long divided, the war in Gaza threatens to further undermine American influence and, in the long term, could make many American military missions untenable.

He said that this new rapprochement also raises major obstacles to any US-led efforts to impose a top-down peace agreement that excludes Palestinian Islamists.

The writer reported that Arab opinion polls and social media show great Arab support for the Hamas movement and its strategy of armed resistance, and a significant decline in support for the United States and the regimes closely associated with it.

The same opinion polls now show, according to the article, that an overwhelming percentage of the population - more than 90% - opposes establishing relations with Israel, adding that the Arab Opinion Index for last January, a survey conducted in Doha that included 16 Arab countries, shows agreement. More than 3 quarters of respondents said their views of the United States had become more negative since the war began.

Matthiesen advised the pro-Western Arab countries to seek to bridge the widening gap between their policies and the sympathy of their citizens, saying that after years of neglect, these masses will urgently press for a just solution to the Palestinian issue, which threatens to spark a new wave of Arab uprisings.

He stressed that it is increasingly clear that it will be impossible for Washington to stop the regional escalation unless it is able to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, end the occupation, and finally establish a viable Palestinian state, adding that in the absence of concrete, credible steps in this direction, the pressure will continue. Popular influence on governments in the region.

Matthiesen concluded his article by emphasizing that without a just and broad solution to the Palestinian issue, the Middle East will never achieve lasting peace or the kind of political and economic cooperation that many have long dreamed of, indicating that the alternative is an endless cycle of violence, the decline of Western influence, and the integration of the region. In a way that is completely different from what the West wants, and even fundamentally hostile to it.

The Sunni-Shia Cold War: The Origins and Evolution of the Saudi Hegomony

The Sunni-Shia Cold War: The Origins and Evolution of the Saudi Hegomony

    Tuesday, November 15, 2022   No comments

There has been a Sunni-Shia cold war going on since 1979, but hardly anyone talked about it in those terms. That is because, in part, the rulers of Saudi Arabia chose to conduct this cold war through proxies or from the shadows. Then, Wikileaks ended the Saudi rulers' abilities to project power and influence, especially as a Sunni moderate power, in secret and the rise of the young, ambitious prince, MBS as he is known, to power while his father is still the nominal figurehead allowed them to deflect blame for any and all missteps. However, during a long tv interview in 2017, MBS revealed all the cards: He described his clash with Iran as an existential one because he sees Iranian leaders and Shia, in general, as irrational actors who hold on to messianic belief about the coming of a savior--which makes them unworthy of dialogue and diplomacy.

Wikileaks' documents described the Saudi war on Iran from behind the scene succinctly and clearly. The Saudi leaders, according to the diplomatic cables, while publicly expressing dialogue with Iran, pushed US and European leaders to go after the "head of the snake", instead of fighting Iran's proxies. The framed it as a need to liberate Iran, as Biden said recently, they wanted the West to unleash a direct war on Iran, not rely just on sanctions. Those revelations forced Saudi and Emariti leaders to emerge from the shadows and attack Iran directly--but not militarily of course. They focused instead on a strategy that aims to unravel the entire political system of Iran from within. 

The new "leak" of documents from UAE shows how the strategy was developed and executed. The Lebanese newspaper, Alakhbar, produced a dossier about these developments. Other researchers and observers have compiled more evidence about the Saudi investment in media assets to realize their goals: the paralysis and destruction of the Iranian system of governance through internal Iranian actors.

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From Alakhbar Dossier about Saudi-UAE Leaks: When Mohammed bin Salman stated the above sentence, in answer to Dawood Al-Sheryan's question about dialogue with Iran, he was announcing what was not usual in Saudi foreign policy, in what was termed "transferring the battle to the Iranian interior." Many at the time, when interpreting what Ibn Salman said, said that Riyadh would resort to what it used to do in terms of employing ISIS cells and the operations that separatist movements in Sistan-Baluchestan had long carried out in the Iranian depths. However, in the documents obtained by Al-Akhbar, it becomes clear that Ibn Salman meant targeting the Iranian interior, through a plan to influence the Iranian youth group, in parallel with the intensification of the discourse of demonizing Iran, directed at the Arab and Islamic audiences.

“We will not wait for the battle to be in Saudi Arabia, but rather we will work so that the battle for them is in Iran and not in Saudi Arabia.”

Deputy Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia

Mohammed bin Salman

3 May 2017

On the morning of January 2, 2016, the world woke up to the news of the execution of Sheikh Nimr Baqir al-Nimr and a group of al-Qatifi youth, along with a group of Saudi officials and cadres of al-Qaeda. Angry reactions continued inside and outside Salman’s kingdom, and the night of that day closed. On the scene of the burning of the buildings of the Saudi diplomatic mission in Iran by angry Iranian youths.

Four days later, on January 6, the Emirati National Media Council was presenting to representatives of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain a proposed plan that he called the “media strategy for dealing with the Iranian file”, which developed in subsequent years, in coordination with the Americans, to become the “plan to undermine Iran.” From the inside.”

The proposal for the media strategy put forward by the Minister of State and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the National Media Council in the UAE, Sultan Al Jaber, stated that the goal behind it is to “build a public opinion hostile to Iranian policies from the internal and external public,” and that the strategy “centers on the political dimension and away from the sectarian discourse that It may weaken the public media discourse if it is relied upon. And most importantly, “the results of the strategy should be achieved after years.” In the initial proposal, as document No. 1 shows, the target audience is regional public opinion, Gulf public opinion, domestic public opinion inside Iran (the Iranian people and non-Persian Iranian minorities in particular), and the Iranian opposition abroad and at home. It is noteworthy in the “implementation partners” paragraph that the Emiratis mentioned the “Organization of Islamic Cooperation” as a partner in implementing the strategy, along with the official Gulf entities, the League of Arab States, and Iranian think tanks and opposition, noting that the Islamic Republic of Iran is an original member of the aforementioned organization whose decision-making is dominated by Saudi Arabia and harnessed. interests since its inception.

Read full dossier (Ar)...