Under the banner of “America First,” President Donald Trump’s second term is leaving an unmistakable imprint on the Middle East. The traditional American posture—strongly aligned with Israel and antagonistic toward Iran—is giving way to a new configuration driven more by economic pragmatism and regional stability than ideology. At the heart of this shift is a surprising warming of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a recalibration in U.S.-Israel relations amid the Gaza war, and a relentless push for commercial deals that serve both American and regional interests.
Trump's Strategic Bet: Trade Over Troops
Trump’s latest Middle East tour, which began with a high-profile stop in Riyadh, highlights a clear message: economic engagement is now Washington’s primary tool of influence. In Saudi Arabia, he and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed a “Strategic Economic Partnership” encompassing energy, mining, and defense. The visit was touted by Trump as “historic,” with the New York Times reporting the president’s desire to announce deals worth over $1 trillion, which he believes will bolster American jobs and global influence.
Instead of pursuing a comprehensive foreign policy doctrine, Trump’s second term appears guided by transactional diplomacy—striking business deals and forging bilateral agreements without broader regional conditions. This is a marked departure from previous administrations that often tied economic or military cooperation to political reform or diplomatic alignment, especially concerning Israel.
Practical decisions:Saudi Arabia and the United States have signed a historic $142 Billion dollar arms deal, the largest in history. Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman also pledged that Saudi Arabia would invest a staggering $600 Billion USD into the U.S. economy.
Gaza War Reveals Strains in U.S.-Israel Ties
Meanwhile, the ongoing war in Gaza is exposing growing daylight between Washington and Tel Aviv. Trump, once hailed by Israeli leaders as one of their strongest allies, is now signaling fatigue with the conflict. According to The Guardian, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff criticized Israel’s prolongation of the war, stating plainly that “Israel is not ready to end it,” while the U.S. wants it resolved—especially with American hostages involved.
Trump’s reluctance to visit Israel during this regional tour, and his administration’s quiet disengagement from Israeli military priorities—like launching strikes on Iran or continuing the Gaza war indefinitely—signals a pivot. One former Israeli diplomat noted bluntly: “Trump is not anti-Israel, but he doesn’t care that much.”
This pragmatism is echoed in Trump’s decision to finalize a ceasefire with the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen—without consulting Israel—and even referring to the Houthis as “brave.” These actions underscore a major shift: the U.S. is prioritizing regional calm and economic deals over ideological battles or military entanglements.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: "There will be no scenario in which we stop the war...even if Hamas releases additional Israeli prisoners, IDF operations in Gaza will continue."
Iran-Saudi Talks: A New Regional Axis?
Perhaps the most striking development of all is the quiet but determined rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia—two rivals long seen as polar opposites in the region. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently visited Jeddah to meet his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan. The two discussed bilateral cooperation and regional challenges, signaling a thaw in relations that were icy during Trump’s first term.
The visit came on the heels of indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, which Araghchi described as entering a “detailed” and “constructive” phase. Oman, playing mediator, confirmed a shared desire to reach a “dignified agreement.” Trump’s administration appears to be backing this diplomatic track quietly, a sign that America no longer seeks to isolate Iran at any cost.
More significantly, Saudi Arabia is engaging with Iran not because of American pressure, but despite it. The economic rationale is compelling: both nations are navigating uncertain oil markets, diversifying their economies, and facing youth-driven demand for growth and jobs. Regional stability is no longer optional—it’s essential for survival.
Normalization with Israel? Not at Any Price
While Trump continues to advocate for Saudi-Israeli normalization, the path is increasingly steep. As long as the war in Gaza rages, Riyadh has made clear it will not move forward. The Jerusalem Post warned that normalization “is no longer given for free,” and Israel may no longer be a necessary partner for American-Arab relations.
This mirrors Trump’s broader approach: if a deal serves economic interests, it’s pursued; if not, it's sidelined—regardless of who the traditional allies are.
The Middle East Reorders Around Stability and Commerce
Trump’s “America First” no longer means a blanket commitment to old alliances or ideological battles. It means pushing American interests through trade and stability. This pivot has encouraged unlikely conversations—between Iran and Saudi Arabia, between economic development and military restraint. It has also cooled previously unquestionable loyalties, as seen in Washington’s growing impatience with Israel’s war strategy.
The new Middle East is one where economic realism outweighs ideological loyalty, and where Trump’s transactional instincts are reshaping the region—not through force, but through a cold calculation of mutual benefit.
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