Media Review: The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis

With the Russian military operation in Ukraine entering its fifth month, voices against American policies began to rise, especially as the sanctions policy it imposed directly affected European countries and gave counterproductive effects that Washington has not succeeded in avoiding so far.

In a speech adapted into an article with the title, the Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis, University of Chicago political science professor John J. Mearsheimer has described the war in Ukraine as a multidimensional disaster, likely to get worse in the near future. "When a war is successful, no one cares much about its causes, but when its outcome is catastrophic, understanding how it happened becomes very important. Everyone would like to know how this horrific situation was reached," he said.

Mearsheimer believes that, "With regard to the Ukrainian war, the United States is primarily responsible for causing this crisis. This does not mean that Putin started the war and that he is responsible for Russia's conduct in the war. Nor does this mean denying that America's allies bear some responsibility, but they are to a large extent They are following Washington's example for Ukraine."

This came in a lecture delivered by Mearsheimer at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence, Italy, last week, in which he spoke in detail about the causes and repercussions of the war in Ukraine, and was published by the American National Interest magazine. It can be argued that the United States has pushed policies toward Ukraine that Putin and other Russian leaders consider an existential threat, especially America's obsession with including Ukraine into NATO and making it a Western fortress on the Russian border. The Biden administration had no willingness to end this threat diplomatically, and recommitted in 2021 to bring Ukraine into NATO. Putin responded by invading Ukraine on February 24.

In Mearsheimer's words, the Biden administration's response to the outbreak of war was to increase pressure on Russia. Washington and its Western allies are resolutely committed to defeating Russia in Ukraine and using comprehensive sanctions to significantly weaken Russian power. And the United States is not seriously interested in finding a diplomatic solution to the war, which means that the war could last months, if not years.

There is no doubt that Ukraine, which has already suffered seriously, will suffer more damage during the war. There is a risk of an escalation of the war, with NATO likely to be drawn into the fight and the possible use of nuclear weapons. It can be said that we live in perilous times.

The war is likely to have catastrophic repercussions. For example, there is reason to believe that the war will lead to a global food crisis, with the death of many millions of people. World Bank President David Malpass said that if the Ukraine war continued, we would face a global food crisis that would be a "humanitarian catastrophe".

In addition, the relations between Russia and the West have been so poisoned that it will take many years to repair. At the same time, this intense hostility will fuel instability around the world, especially in Europe. Some would say that there is one thing that is positive: relations between the countries of the West have improved significantly due to the Ukraine war.

This may be true for now, but there are cracks deep beneath the surface. For example, relations between Eastern European countries and Western European countries are likely to deteriorate as the war continues because their interests and views on the war are not the same.

To be sure, the war has already mainly damaged the global economy, and this situation is likely to get worse with time.

At the conclusion of his lecture, Mearsheimer said that the current war in Ukraine is clearly a colossal catastrophe, which will cause everyone around the world to search for its causes. Those who believe in facts and logic will quickly discover that the United States and its allies are primarily responsible for this devastation. It was inevitable that the decision issued in April 2008 to annex Ukraine and Georgia to NATO would lead to war with Russia.

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I have witnessed this phenomenon twice in my lifetime—first with the Vietnam war and second with the Iraq war. In both cases, Americans wanted to know how their country could have miscalculated so badly. Given that the United States and its NATO allies played a crucial role in the events that led to the Ukraine war—and are now playing a central role in the conduct of that war—it is appropriate to evaluate the West’s responsibility for this calamity.

One might argue that Putin was lying about his motives, that he was attempting to disguise his imperial ambitions. As it turns out, I have written a book about lying in international politics—Why Leaders Lie: The Truth about Lying in International Politics—and it is clear to me that Putin was not lying. For starters, one of my principal findings is that leaders do not lie much to each other; they lie more often to their own publics. Regarding Putin, whatever one thinks of him, he does not have a history of lying to other leaders. Although some assert that he frequently lies and cannot be trusted, there is little evidence of him lying to foreign audiences. Moreover, he has publicly spelled out his thinking about Ukraine on numerous occasions over the past two years and he has consistently emphasized that his principal concern is Ukraine’s relations with the West, especially NATO. He has never once hinted that he wants to make Ukraine part of Russia. If this behavior is all part of a giant deception campaign, it would be without precedent in recorded history.