Why Iran assassination plot doesn't add up for Iran experts

Why Iran assassination plot doesn't add up for Iran experts

    Wednesday, October 12, 2011   No comments

By Scott Peterson

How careful is Iran's Qods Force when it comes to covert operations abroad?

This wing of the Revolutionary Guard was accused by US military commanders in Iraq in 2007 and 2008 of jeopardizing the efforts of more than 150,000 American troops on the ground, of backing militias of all stripes, and of exercising strong influence on Baghdad's rulers.

Yet how many Iranian Qods Force operatives did that take? One US diplomat posted to Baghdad at the time had what he thought to be the consensus answer: There were just eight Qods Force men in all of Iraq.

Indeed, the Qods Force has a reputation for careful, methodical work – as well as effective use of local proxies, and ultimately their pragmatic deployment by Tehran as covert tools to expand Iran's influence across a region in flux. That explains why Iran experts are raising questions about fresh US charges of an Iran-backed bomb plot, this time to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington and blow up the Saudi and Israeli embassies.

A criminal complaint filed by US prosecutors on Tuesday charge Mansour Arbabsiar – a naturalized US citizen with an Iranian passport from Corpus Christi, Texas – and Gholam Shakuri, "an Iran-based member of Iran's Qods Force," with plotting to kill the Saudi diplomat on US soil in an operation "directed by factions of the Iranian government."

Details of alleged plot

Those who know Iran well are skeptical, but do not rule out any possibility. Mr. Arbabsiar may have arranged for $100,000 to be transferred from Iran as a down payment of $1.5 million for the hit, as US charges indicate.

Arbabsiar may also have boasted to one alleged accomplice in the plot – an associate of Mexico's Zeta drug cartel, who also happened to be an informant of the US Drug Enforcement Administration – that his cousin was a "big general" in the Iranian military.

While also describing a series of potential attacks to the associate, he may even have stated – apparently in secretly taped conversations – that mass American casualties as a result were not a problem: "They want that guy [the ambassador] done [killed], if the hundred go with him f**k 'em," reads the legal complaint.

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Dubai releases video of alleged assassins of Hamas official, Israel denies involvement

Dubai releases video of alleged assassins of Hamas official, Israel denies involvement

    Wednesday, February 17, 2010   No comments

 A sensational plot that resulted in the assassination of one of Hamas' officials, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh,  is creating an international crisis for a number of countries.

On Wednesday, the U.K. announced that the Israeli ambassador will be called into the Foreign Office Thursday to "share information" about the assassins' use of identities stolen from six British citizens living in Israel. Ireland, too, launched an investigation into the use of three faked Irish passports by the hit squad. At least two Palestinians linked to the case were deported from Jordan and are now in Dubai custody.

Avigdor Lieberman, Israeli's foreign minister, told Army Radio today that "there is no reason to think that it was the Israeli Mossad, and not some other intelligence service or country up to some mischief." Israel’s policy on Mossad activities is generally that of ambiguity. The fact that officials denied involvement this time underscores the seriousness of the matter.

If Israel is officially implicated, it could potentially damage its relations with the U.K and other countries. This is even more critical since Mossad has used foreign passports in the past. In 1997, Mossad agents entered Jordan on Canadian passports and bungled an attempt to kill Hamas Political Bureau Chief, Khaled Mishaal with poison. The Israeli government was forced to provide the antidote. In 1987, the U.K. protested to Israel about what London called "the misuse by Israeli authorities of forged British passports."

The involvement of security agents affiliated with the Palestinian authorities could further weaken Abbas and strengthen Hamas in the eyes of the Palestinian people. Globally, this is the second high profile assassination in several months (and one of many in the past couple of years) and it may signal a new, dangerous upward trend that will encourage other regimes to carry out assassinations of political adversaries, which will weaken the rule of law.

Photo details: As shown in the collection of photos above, the suspects are, from left to right, top row, Evan Dennings of Irish nationality, Gail Folliard of Irish nationality, James Leonard Clarke of British nationality, Jonathan Louis Graham of British nationality; (From left to right, middle row) Michael Bodenheimer of German nationality, Paul John Keeley of British nationality, Michael Lawrence Barney of British nationality; (From left to right, bottom row) Peter Elvinger of French nationality, Kevin Daveron of Irish nationality, Melvyn Adam Mildiner of British nationality, Stephen Daniel Hodes of British nationality.