Intelligence Sources: President Hassan Rohani could be willing to make concessions in the country's long-running standoff with the West over its nuclear program

Intelligence Sources: President Hassan Rohani could be willing to make concessions in the country's long-running standoff with the West over its nuclear program

    Tuesday, September 17, 2013   No comments

Nothing -- not even Syria's arsenal of chemical weapons -- is a source of such deep concern for the West and Israel as Iran's nuclear facilities, such as Natanz, Isfahan and Fordo. The installation at Fordo, not far from the holy city of Qom, is viewed as a particularly grave threat.

Researchers working underground there are using 696 centrifuges to enrich uranium to 20 percent. Afterwards, it only takes a relatively small step to create the material required to build nuclear bombs. Fordo, which didn't go into operation until late 2011, is reportedly the most modern plant in the Iranian nuclear program which -- despite all denials from Tehran -- the world believes is designed to give the Islamic Republic the ultimate weapon. What's more, Fordo is believed to be virtually indestructible. Even bunker-buster bombs would hardly be powerful enough to disable the facility -- the enrichment cascades lie 70 meters (230 feet) under the surface.

But the long-smoldering nuclear dispute with Tehran may be about to take a sensational turn. SPIEGEL has learned from intelligence sources that Iran's new president, Hassan Rohani, is reportedly prepared to decommission the Fordo enrichment plant and allow international inspectors to monitor the removal of the centrifuges. In return, he could demand that the United States and Europe rescind their sanctions against the Islamic Republic, lift the ban on Iranian oil exports and allow the country's central bank to do international business again.

Rohani reportedly intends to announce the details of the offer, perhaps already during his speech before the United Nations General Assembly at the end of the month. His foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, will meet Catherine Ashton, the European Union's top diplomat, in New York next Sunday and give her a rough outline of the deal. If he were to make such wide-ranging concessions, President Rohani would initiate a negotiating process that could conceivably even lead to a resumption of bilateral diplomatic relations with Washington.

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Nearly half the rebel fighters in Syria are now aligned to jihadist or hardline Islamist groups according to a new analysis of factions in the country's civil war

Nearly half the rebel fighters in Syria are now aligned to jihadist or hardline Islamist groups according to a new analysis of factions in the country's civil war

    Monday, September 16, 2013   No comments

Opposition forces battling Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria now number around 100,000 fighters, but after more than two years of fighting they are fragmented into as many as 1,000 bands.

The new study by IHS Jane's, a defence consultancy, estimates there are around 10,000 jihadists - who would include foreign fighters - fighting for powerful factions linked to al-Qaeda..
Another 30,000 to 35,000 are hardline Islamists who share much of the outlook of the jihadists, but are focused purely on the Syrian war rather than a wider international struggle.

There are also at least a further 30,000 moderates belonging to groups that have an Islamic character, meaning only a small minority of the rebels are linked to secular or purely nationalist groups.

The stark assessment, to be published later this week, accords with the view of Western diplomats estimate that less than one third of the opposition forces are "palatable" to Britain, while American envoys put the figure even lower.

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Syria rebels' form of justice: captives are dragged to their doom and butchered like animals in some of the most brutal scenes to emerge from Syria's civil war

Syria rebels' form of justice: captives are dragged to their doom and butchered like animals in some of the most brutal scenes to emerge from Syria's civil war

    Sunday, September 15, 2013   No comments

The sword rests briefly on his neck as a blindfolded man kneels under a clear blue sky.
Moments later, the executioner raises his right arm, slashes downwards and the prisoner is dead.
The whole barbaric episode is watched by a crowd of jeering men, many of them armed.
And sitting on a low wall only a few feet from where the wretched captive died so violently is a line of young boys.
They were still there as the dead man’s head was dumped on his body. Another child, even younger, was led by the hand past the corpse.
Warning: Graphic content


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U.S. and Russia reach a deal on Syria's chemical weapons: A plan that Kerry initially said "can’t be done, obviously," is now "the plan"

U.S. and Russia reach a deal on Syria's chemical weapons: A plan that Kerry initially said "can’t be done, obviously," is now "the plan"

    Saturday, September 14, 2013   No comments

GENEVA — The United States and Russia have reached an agreement that calls for Syria’s arsenal of chemical weapons to be removed or destroyed by the middle of 2014, Secretary of State John Kerry said on Saturday.

Under the agreement, Syria must submit a “comprehensive listing” of its chemical weapons stockpiles within a week.

American and Russian officials also reached a consensus on the size of Syria’s stockpile, an essential prerequisite to any international plan to control and dismantle the weapons.

“If fully implemented,” Mr. Kerry said, “this framework can provide greater protection and security to the world.”

If President Bashar al-Assad of Syria fails to comply with the agreement, the issue will be referred to the United Nations Security Council.

Mr. Kerry said that any violations would then be taken up under Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter, which authorizes punitive action. But Mr. Lavrov made clear that Russia, which wields a veto in the Security Council, had not withdrawn its objections to the use of force.

The joint announcement, which took place on the third day of intensive talks here, eased the United States’ confrontation with Syria.

Arms control officials on both sides worked into the night, a process that recalled the treaty negotiations during the cold war.

The issue of removing Syria’s chemical arms broke into the open on Monday when Mr. Kerry, in a news conference in London, posed the question as to whether Mr. Assad could rapidly be disarmed only to state that he did not see how it could be done.

“He could turn over every single bit of his chemical weapons to the international community in the next week. Turn it over, all of it, without delay, and allow a full and total accounting for that,” Mr. Kerry said. “But he isn’t about to do it, and it can’t be done, obviously.”

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Turkey left out of diplomatic loop on chemical weapons debate; is Turkey becoming even more irrelevant?

Turkey left out of diplomatic loop on chemical weapons debate; is Turkey becoming even more irrelevant?

    Friday, September 13, 2013   No comments

Ahmet Davutoğlu has not spoken to Kerry or Lavrov in four days...

Ankara, which has continued to liaise with world leaders on the Syrian crisis and other international issues, now seems left out of diplomatic traffic between officials from the US and Russia, two camps on the ongoing conflict in Syria that have been discussing the issue of Syria's chemical weapons for the last two days at a conference in Geneva.

Russia proposed a plan last week, accepted by both Syria and the United States, that would put the Syrian regime's chemical weapons stockpile under international control, to eventually be destroyed.

US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, have been discussing the Russian proposal in Geneva for the last two days. The proposal appears to offer a way out of the chemical weapons crisis, at the same time shelving the possibility of US-led military action in Syria in retaliation against an alleged chemical weapons attack last month.

Turkey, however, believes that the Russian initiative is a tactical move to prevent outside action being taken to end the conflict in Syria, thus buying Syrian President Bashar al-Assad more time to stage massacres.

Sources from the Foreign Ministry say that Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has not spoken to Kerry or Lavrov in four days.
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A French report claims that Turkey encouraged the formation of a jihadist brigade called “Katibat al-Taliban” (KaT)

A French report claims that Turkey encouraged the formation of a jihadist brigade called “Katibat al-Taliban” (KaT)

    Thursday, September 12, 2013   No comments

France's Intelligence Online claimed in a story in its latest issue published on Wednesday that Turkey encouraged the formation of a jihadist brigade called “Katibat al-Taliban” (KaT), which is reportedly made up almost exclusively of Kurds, to fight with the Democratic Union Party (PYD). The story also claimed that some fighters of the alleged group were "members of the PKK who converted to Islam in Turkish prisons,” while others come from schools established by followers of Gülen.

The lawyer of Islamic scholar Fethullah Gülen has strongly dismissed claims by a French publication that followers of Gülen are among members of an alleged jihadist formation encouraged by Turkey to fight a political offshoot of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Syria as baseless slanders.
“The claim in question is first of all a blatant and baseless slander that is based on no evidence.  Mentioning the name of my client, who based his entire life on tolerance, dialogue, peace, love for people and one's country, is, to say the least, ruthless and shows a lack of intelligence,” said lawyer Nurullah Albayrak in a statement on Thursday.

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The problems with political bias in the culture of think tanks: Syria expert Senator McCain cited is not an expert after all

The problems with political bias in the culture of think tanks: Syria expert Senator McCain cited is not an expert after all

    Thursday, September 12, 2013   No comments

BY ZACK BEAUCHAMP

Dr. Elizabeth O’Bagy, Syria expert, made quite an impression on Senator John McCain. During Senate hearings, the former Presidential candidate quoted at length from her recent Wall Street Journal op-ed painting a rosy picture of a mostly secular, pro-Western anti-Assad insurgency.

“John, do you agree with Dr. O’Bagy’s assessment of the opposition?,” the Senator asked the Secretary of State John Kerry. “I agree with most of that,” he replied.

Except Dr. O’Bagy wasn’t actually a doctor. Her PhD was fabricated, a lie she told her employers at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an influential neoconservative-aligned think tank, to get hired. Ironically, it ended up being the lie that got her fired Wednesday. This postmodern reenactment of the Icarus myth also provides a bizarrely informative window into the way that Washington’s foreign policy sausage gets made.

O’Bagy got her start last year, when she interned for ISW’s Iraq portfolio while completing a Master’s in Arab Studies at Georgetown University. Kimberly Kagan, the President of ISW, was so impressed that she hired O’Bagy to start even before the young analyst finished her degree. “Her insights and her [Arabic] linguistic skills were tremendous,” Kagan said.

But O’Bagy had already begun to misrepresent her credentials. Kagan told me that she “knew [O'Bagy] was a student at Georgetown in a combined masters/PhD program,” and that new hire was writing a dissertation on “female militancy in Islamic extremist organizations.” Several media outlets have repeated this account as fact in their write-ups of O’Bagy’s firing, all maintaining that she is still in the process of completing a Georgetown doctorate.

This is almost certainly false. Either O’Bagy was at one point enrolled a PhD program and dropped out, or she has been lying the entire time. Some evidence points to the latter.

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What Putin Has to Say to Americans About Syria: A Plea for Caution From Russia

What Putin Has to Say to Americans About Syria: A Plea for Caution From Russia

    Thursday, September 12, 2013   No comments

By VLADIMIR V. PUTIN

Recent events surrounding Syria have prompted me to speak directly to the American people and their political leaders. It is important to do so at a time of insufficient communication between our societies.
Relations between us have passed through different stages. We stood against each other during the cold war. But we were also allies once, and defeated the Nazis together. The universal international organization — the United Nations — was then established to prevent such devastation from ever happening again.

The United Nations’ founders understood that decisions affecting war and peace should happen only by consensus, and with America’s consent the veto by Security Council permanent members was enshrined in the United Nations Charter. The profound wisdom of this has underpinned the stability of international relations for decades.

...

My working and personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust. I appreciate this. I carefully studied his address to the nation on Tuesday. And I would rather disagree with a case he made on American exceptionalism, stating that the United States' policy is "what makes America different. It's what makes us exceptional". It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord's blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal..

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NSA shares raw intelligence including American citizens' data with Israel

NSA shares raw intelligence including American citizens' data with Israel

    Wednesday, September 11, 2013   No comments

Read the NSA and Israel's 'memorandum of understanding' 

The National Security Agency routinely shares raw intelligence data with Israel without first sifting it to remove information about US citizens, a top-secret document provided to the Guardian by whistleblower Edward Snowden reveals.

Details of the intelligence-sharing agreement are laid out in a memorandum of understanding between the NSA and its Israeli counterpart that shows the US government handed over intercepted communications likely to contain phone calls and emails of American citizens. The agreement places no legally binding limits on the use of the data by the Israelis.

The disclosure that the NSA agreed to provide raw intelligence data to a foreign country contrasts with assurances from the Obama administration that there are rigorous safeguards to protect the privacy of US citizens caught in the dragnet. The intelligence community calls this process "minimization", but the memorandum makes clear that the information shared with the Israelis would be in its pre-minimized state.

The deal was reached in principle in March 2009, according to the undated memorandum, which lays out the ground rules for the intelligence sharing.

The five-page memorandum, termed an agreement between the US and Israeli intelligence agencies "pertaining to the protection of US persons", repeatedly stresses the constitutional rights of Americans to privacy and the need for Israeli intelligence staff to respect these rights.

But this is undermined by the disclosure that Israel is allowed to receive "raw Sigint" – signal intelligence. The memorandum says: "Raw Sigint includes, but is not limited to, unevaluated and unminimized transcripts, gists, facsimiles, telex, voice and Digital Network Intelligence metadata and content."

According to the agreement, the intelligence being shared would not be filtered in advance by NSA analysts to remove US communications. "NSA routinely sends ISNU [the Israeli Sigint National Unit] minimized and unminimized raw collection", it says.

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Police fire tear gas to disperse crowds gathered to denounce protester's death in Turkey

Police fire tear gas to disperse crowds gathered to denounce protester's death in Turkey

    Wednesday, September 11, 2013   No comments

The police staged a fresh crackdown on demonstrators in the early evening hours of Sept. 10, after groups had gathered in Istanbul's Taksim Square to denounce the death of a protester in Antakya during an intervention.

After the crowd swelled in numbers in Taksim Square, police pushed them down through the pedestrian İstiklal Avenue in order to prevent the demonstration from taking place.

Once again tear gas and water cannons were resorted to, with police chasing protesters down İstiklal Avenue and the many narrow side streets in the area.

Police also used tear gas to disperse a crowd that had arrived by ferry at the Karaköy docks, downhill from İstiklal Avenue, in order prevent them from reaching the Taksim area.

The police intervention continued for more than four hours around İstiklal Avenue's side streets.

The Istanbul bar association has stated that 41 people have been detained in Istanbul alone.

Another protest was staged in the district of Kadıköy, on Istanbul's Asian side.

Witnesses and activists claimed that Atakan was hit in the head by a gas canister fired by the police. However, the Turkish police released a statement saying footage from a police camera indicated that Atakan had fallen from a building, and that no intervention by the police was visible.

A doctor present during the protester's preliminary autopsy said there was no evidence to prove that the latter had fallen from a building.

Shortly earlier, police had sealed off Gezi Park next to the square following calls on social media for a demonstration.

The Taksim Solidarity Platform, which initiated the first protests against the destruction of trees in Gezi Park months ago, scheduled a public rally in Taksim Square at around 7 p.m. “We will gather at Taksim with carnations to commemorate Ahmet Atakan and denounce police violence,” the group said via its social media account.

Meanwhile, the under-21 football match between Turkey and Sweden at the Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadium in the Kasımpaşa district was temporarily interrupted due to tear gas drifting over from the nearby Taksim area.

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