Is NATO expansion a cause for the war in Ukraine?

Is NATO expansion a cause for the war in Ukraine?

    Monday, July 17, 2023   No comments

Prof. Robert G. Rabil and attorney Francois Alam wrote a provocative essay to underscore the danger of ignoring Russia's legitimate national security interests. They concluded that "gripped by a false sense of morality enveloped in hubris and Machiavellian calculations, Washington risks taking the world over the precipice of the abyss. This must be prevented." 

The writers see that after America pledged to the Soviet Union that NATO would not approach its borders in 1990, we see that in 1997 NATO called on Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to join the alliance at the Madrid summit. In a second round in 2004, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia became members of NATO. Then came the US position on the Rose, Orange and Square revolutions in Georgia, in the years 2003, 2004 and 2014, to put Washington and Moscow in violent confrontation.

The authors also believe that, in order to clarify Moscow's position in the current war in Ukraine, it is useful to look at history. The Donbass region has been part of the formation of Russia since Moscow defeated the Mongols in the 15th century. Crimea and its vicinity also had a special place to highlight the power of the tsarist empire. As for Peter the Great, he was the first to establish a Russian naval base on the Sea of Azov. During the reign of Catherine the Great, Moscow established its strategic naval base in Sevastopol, which served as the main base for the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The authors considered that America's insistence on ensuring the victory of Ukraine, and considering America's security and stability as part of the security and stability of Ukraine, as well as providing Kiev with the most dangerous conventional weapons, is nothing but an open invitation to World War III and the mutual destruction of the West and Eurasia, and ignoring the fact that NATO's expansion to the east means besieging Russia in its heartland. And ignoring the attempts of the Russian leadership to dissuade the West from its plan.

The authors conclude by saying that supporting Ukraine's victory in such a blatant way is a great incentive for World War III. They stress that the Americans must stop this madness, and the coalition must realize that the way to peace is not through weapons.

The article is linked here: Americans Must Stop the March to World War III over Ukraine

Personalities and ideologies that drive the conflict between NATO and Russia and their semi-proxy war in Ukraine

Personalities and ideologies that drive the conflict between NATO and Russia and their semi-proxy war in Ukraine

    Saturday, May 27, 2023   No comments

Yesterday, the New York Times revealed that the “Anti-Kremlin Group Involved in Border Raid Is Led by a Neo-Nazi”. The paper reported that the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, one of the two insurgent groups responsible for an armed incursion into Russia this week, is a far-right extremist, German officials and humanitarian groups say.

Russia has stated since the start of the conflict in Ukraine in 2014 that neo-Nazis are behind the campaign to kill and displace ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine; Russian leaders have stated that denazification is a goal of its military operation in Ukraine.

On the same day, the German DER SPIEGEL reported that the “evidence confirms Ukraine's involvement in the Nord Stream bombing.” The newspaper confirmed, Friday, that there is new evidence in the investigation indicating Ukraine's involvement in sabotage operations targeting the "Nord Stream" gas pipelines.

And the newspaper reported that the metadata of e-mail messages, which were sent during the charter of the boat, indicate the involvement of Ukraine, pointing to the finding in the yacht of traces of the explosive “HMX” substance, which is very widespread in the west as in the previous block in the east.

"Der Spiegel" stated that all the evidence "consistent with the assessments of several intelligence services, according to which the perpetrators will be searched for in Ukraine."

And the German newspaper continued: "We now wonder whether what happened could have been carried out by unsupervised commandos, or the Ukrainian intelligence services, and to what extent certain elements of the Ukrainian government apparatus were aware of this."

This comes at a time when police investigations are focusing, in particular, on the "Andromeda" yacht, which is likely to be used to transport explosives, which led to the detonation of the pipelines in September 2022, in the Baltic Sea, according to what was reported by "Agence France Presse".

It is likely that the yacht set off from the port of Rostock, in northern Germany, on September 6, with 6 people on board, including divers and a doctor.

It turned out that one of the passengers on the boat holds a Romanian passport, and he is also a "Ukrainian citizen who previously served in an infantry unit."

And at the beginning of this week, other German media traced the file of the boat rental by a Polish company owned, in fact, by Ukrainians.

Investigators are looking into the evidence of "Ukrainian military services," according to Sudeutsche, RND and VDR TV.

Meanwhile, a German analyst suggested that the transferring the Ukrainian war to Russia is a strategic mistake for which the world will pay.

During the past few days, the Russian-Ukrainian war witnessed a remarkable development when Russia revealed that armed elements had entered its territory through the Ukrainian borders, which means that Ukraine may have begun to transfer the war into Russia.

 

And whether you do or plan to do so, the question posed by German writer and analyst Andreas Kluth in an analysis published by Bloomberg News is: Will this development be a good thing?

 

Russia said that "Ukrainian terrorists" and "fascists" attacked Russian territory. Of course, according to the German analyst, such statements and everything issued by the Russian government can be ignored. It has been said that the armed groups that claimed responsibility for the attacks inside Russian territory consist of Russians who defected from President Vladimir Putin's army and are fighting against him for Ukraine now.

 

One of these groups calls itself the "Russian Freedom Corps", and the other is called the "Russian Volunteer Corps", and includes elements of ultra-nationalists.

 

According to Cloth, there is limited information available about these anti-Putin paramilitary forces, especially as to whether they take orders from Ukraine or operate independently.

 

In the context of the conflict with Russia, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said - in a statement - that the Ukrainian army needs about 48 F-16 combat aircraft to liberate the territories occupied by Russia, according to the ministry's statement.

 

On the other hand, the ministry announced that Canada will complete in the coming weeks the delivery of thousands of small arms and live ammunition that it donated to Ukraine.

 

The Ukrainian National News Agency quoted the Ministry of Defense as saying that the delivery of small arms and ammunition had already begun last April, including machine guns and assault rifles.

 

The ministry stated that in the coming weeks, one million bullets and about 5,000 assault rifles will be delivered.

 

Meanwhile, a spokeswoman for the German Defense Ministry said that the ministry had received a request from Ukraine in the past few days to hand over Taurus cruise missiles. The spokeswoman did not give any other details about the letter, such as the number of missiles that Kiev is requesting.

All these developments suggest that if Ukraine accumulates enough weapons, it will be able to use them anyway it sees fit without any consideration of the limits demanded by the Western nations that donated the weapons. This would take things out of control and can result in catastrophic events unless the conflict is recalibrated. Sensing the urgency to act now before it is late, and the to build on the Chines, Brazilian, and African initiatives to settle the conflict, German leaders decided to reopen a direct line of communication with Russia. Schultz intends to reconnect with Putin at the appropriate time

German Chancellor Olaf Schultz announced today, Friday, that he is ready to return to contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin "at the appropriate time," in light of the interruption of talks between them since last December.

 

Schultz said in an interview published by the newspaper "Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger" on Friday that his last phone call with Putin was a long time ago, but he intends to talk to him again at the appropriate time.

 

Regarding his vision for resolving the conflict, Schultz said that Russia "must understand that the war cannot end with some kind of cold peace that would turn the current front line into a new border between Russia and Ukraine, that would only serve to legitimize Putin's campaign."

 

On the contrary, he added, a just peace must be achieved through the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine.

 

But Schultz refused to say whether this withdrawal should also include Crimea, occupied since 2014, and the German chancellor believed that it was up to Ukraine to determine what it wanted.

Commenting on all these developments, and speaking on behalf of Putin, Dmitry Peskov said that “the degree of involvement of the West in the conflict in Ukraine is growing every day.”

 Peskov noted that the involvement of the West can stretch the conflict in time, but will not change the situation radically. "Russia will continue the special operation and one way or another will ensure its interests," the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation stated.

NATO nations’ support to Ukrainian armed forces reaches another level

NATO nations’ support to Ukrainian armed forces reaches another level

    Thursday, March 30, 2023   No comments

Ukrainian officials have shown off nee weapons systems received from NATO nations, which they said will allow them to launch offensive actions to take back territories now under Russian control.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, released images of new weapons and transport systems handed over by the US. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov, was shown testing the new Strykers and Cougars handed over by USA.

Also, more than 300 powerful DJI Mavic 3T Thermal copters for Ukraine's Defense Forces were transferred to the frontlines, according to Ukrainian forces.

This unprecedented number of weapons transferred to a war zone is likely to push both sides to escalate.

Russian officials have used a strategy of inserting new weapons to the battle field incrementally and in reaction to NATO’s increased involvement, which can lead to a dangerous nuclear confrontation.

These developments bring to the forefront once again the consequences of illegal wars, invasions, and aggressions undertaken by Western states in the last 3 decades. Most recently, the US invasion of Iraq and how that event is unmasking the inequality that permeates the world today. If Iraq has had reliable and powerful allies with nuclear weapons, who decided to take the same actions taken by Western nations to support Ukraine resist an illegal war, what would the outcome have been? What if Russia and China, had used the same logic, and decided to openly provide weapons and military support to Iraq to defend itself? What would that have done to the world order then?

And did Russia exert a level of restraint, voicing their opposition to those illegal wars (Ira, Syria, Yemen, and Libya) without providing any lethal aid to these attacked nations to defend themselves, made them think that if they did the same, attack another nations in the future, the West will do the same (not provide military assistance)?

Since that assumption is proved wrong now, will Russia supply its friends who are under threat of attack from Western nations, like Iran, with all kinds of weapons and technology to pre-empt an attack, or strike military alliances that would allow them to intervene militarily in defense of their allies?

This is how complex the effects of the war in Ukraine and the West’s reaction to it is. With election cycles around the corner in key Westerm nations, it is only  matter of months, not years, to see how these decisions will shape the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's National Security Council, adds another scenario that could trigger a nuclear war: arresting the Russian President in another country

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's National Security Council, adds another scenario that could trigger a nuclear war: arresting the Russian President in another country

    Thursday, March 23, 2023   No comments

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's National Security Council, said on Thursday that any attempt to arrest President Vladimir Putin after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against him would be tantamount to a declaration of war on Russia.

The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin on Friday, charging him with the war crime of forcibly deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine. The court noted that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the matter.

Medvedev, a former president and staunch Putin ally, told Russian media that the ICC was a "worthless legal entity" that had never done anything significant. There are countries that do not recognize the court, including Russia, China and the United States.

Medvedev said that any attempt to arrest Putin would be tantamount to a declaration of war.

And he continued, saying in a video he posted on Telegram, “What will that be? It will be a declaration of war on the Russian Federation... In that case, all our (war) assets, all our missiles, etc.... will fly towards the chancellery office and the Bundestag building," referring to the German parliament.

Russian officials deny war crimes were committed in Ukraine and say the West has ignored what they say are Ukrainian war crimes.

Medvedev described relations with the West as certainly at their worst.

He said nuclear risks were increasing, adding, "Every day that weapons are supplied to Ukraine from abroad brings the world closer to complete nuclear devastation."

Medvedev pointed out that the West now wants to divide Russia into a group of weak countries to steal its huge natural resources, he said.

The West denies it wants to destroy Russia and says it is helping Ukraine defend itself against colonial-style land grabs.

"Ukraine is part of Russia," Medvedev said, adding that most of present-day Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire.

  

On the edge of a nuclear confrontation: Putin warned that Britain's supply of Ukraine with depleted uranium stockpile will force Russia to insert nuclear component, too

On the edge of a nuclear confrontation: Putin warned that Britain's supply of Ukraine with depleted uranium stockpile will force Russia to insert nuclear component, too

    Wednesday, March 22, 2023   No comments

British Foreign Minister James Cleverly denied on Wednesday the existence of a nuclear escalation in the Ukrainian war, after Russian President Vladimir Putin's criticism of London regarding the supply of depleted uranium shells to Ukraine.

Britain confirmed on Monday that it will supply Ukraine with depleted uranium stockpile. The heavy metal is used in the formation of weapons because of its ability to penetrate tanks and armor easily.

But Putin did not discuss the British plans to send such ammunition yesterday, saying that Moscow will have to respond accordingly because such weapons contain "nuclear components".

"There is no nuclear escalation," Cleverly added at the launch ceremony of the British International Technology Strategy. The only country in the world that talks about nuclear issues is Russia. There is no threat to Russia. It's all about helping Ukraine defend itself."

And he continued, "I must make sure that everyone understands that the word uranium mentioned in the context of depleted uranium reserves is not nuclear reserves, but purely conventional reserves."

Britain has been using depleted uranium in anti-armor missiles for decades and does not consider these missiles to have nuclear capabilities. It is also known that Russia has reserves containing depleted uranium.

The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, who is one of LeBoutine's close allies, said on Wednesday that Russia will reject the British decision to supply Belarus with a stockpile containing "real uranium".

He told the journalists in a video clip, "We need to retreat from this madness." As soon as this stockpile explodes at the locations of the Russian forces, there will be a terrible reaction, it will be a lesson for the entire planet.

He added, "Russia does not have depleted uranium, only... we have to slow down the pace of this trend towards escalating the conflict and moving towards a peaceful settlement".

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Britain's decision to supply Ukraine with depleted uranium mines raises the situation to new and dangerous levels.

UN nuke watchdog chief in Iran: Any military attack on a nuclear facility is illegal

UN nuke watchdog chief in Iran: Any military attack on a nuclear facility is illegal

    Sunday, March 05, 2023   No comments

Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi says any military attack on nuclear facilities is outlawed, responding to US and Israeli threats to target those in Iran.

Grossi made the remarks in Tehran Saturday, in a joint news conference with head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami who urged the IAEA to help build trust.

The Biden administration has drawn closer to Israel in recent weeks, conducting large-scale joint military exercises with the regime.

“There are two separate issues in this regard. First, attacks on nuclear power plants have unfortunately become common, and this is due to the war in Ukraine. Second, these attacks have been condemned during the Agency’s public conferences. So I think that the attack on nuclear facilities is totally condemned and illegal,” Grossi said.

He is visiting Tehran after Western reports claimed that IAEA inspectors had found 84% enriched uranium in Iran – an allegation Tehran has rejected.

Eslami told reporters that the Islamic Republic is enriching uranium up to 60% fissile purity.

Grossi said he had “constructive discussions” with Iranian officials that could pave the way for the revival of a landmark 2015 agreement to bring the US back to compliance and remove sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

“By having a constructive discussion, like we are having now, and having good agreements, like I am sure we are going to have, we are going to be paving the way for important agreements,” he said.

Eslami called for the remaining signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), namely France, Britain, Germany along with China and Russia, to fulfill their obligations.

“Three European and some other countries are just focusing on Iran’s JCPOA obligations,” he said. “They too have obligations that they need to adhere to.”

Eslami said, “We came to an arrangement (with Grossi) to define our cooperation within the framework of the safeguards.”

He called on the UN nuclear agency to avoid being swayed by those who aim to hinder cooperation between the two sides.

Reactions

Today, Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized the statements of the Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, in which he asserted that carrying out an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities was "illegal." Netanyahu said that Grossi was a worthy person, but he made inappropriate statements.

Grossi said during his visit to Tehran on Saturday - in response to a journalist's question about the threats of Tel Aviv and Washington to attack Iranian nuclear facilities if they consider that diplomatic means to prevent Tehran from acquiring an atomic bomb have reached a dead end - that "any military attack on nuclear facilities is prohibited." ".

Netanyahu said - at the beginning of the weekly cabinet meeting - that "Israel will continue to defend itself in the face of those who call for its annihilation and prepare for the slaughter of its citizens."

He added that his country "continues to work to confront Iran, through discussions and actions it is conducting around the clock."

The International Atomic Energy Agency issued yesterday from Vienna a joint statement with the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency at the end of Grossi's visit to Tehran.

The statement stated that Iran is ready to continue cooperation with the agency regarding 3 sites that the agency said were undeclared and where traces of uranium were found.

Iran has also indicated its willingness to provide more information and access to it in order to address the remaining safeguards issues.

The joint statement added that Iran will allow the IAEA, when needed, to carry out more verification and supervision activities in nuclear facilities, provided that the method for this is agreed upon during a technical meeting to be held in Tehran soon.

Grossi's visit came as negotiations aimed at reviving the agreement on the Iranian nuclear file concluded in 2015 - officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - reached a dead end.

It also coincides with the start of US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's tour of the Middle East today, Sunday, including Egypt, Jordan and Israel, during which he will hold talks on the Iranian nuclear program.