What happens now that Erdogan is re-elected president of Turkiye?

What happens now that Erdogan is re-elected president of Turkiye?

    Tuesday, May 30, 2023   No comments

Two weeks ago, the American New York Times reported that European leaders would be happy to have an "easier Turkey," referring to the European desire for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to lose in the current presidential elections.

The newspaper pointed out that Westerners, especially the US administration, would like to see Erdogan lose, in favor of opposition figure Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

The New York Times said that Turkey, an important and strategic member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), has become, under Erdogan's rule, "an increasingly troublesome partner of the European Union."

However, "NATO", according to the newspaper, hopes that the change of Turkish leadership "will lead to an end to the confrontation over the approval of Sweden's membership in the alliance," before the summit scheduled to be held in Vilnius, Lithuania, next July.

Within Turkey, the opposition and its candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, whom the Western media called "Turkey's Gandhi," sought to overthrow Erdogan.

And the opposition exploited anti-refugee sentiments to try to win the elections, according to the British "Guardian". Kilicdaroglu tried to win the support of voters, especially the youth, taking advantage of the difficult economic conditions, and promised to restore the parliamentary system, after its improvement, to the country.

Now, after Erdogan announced his victory in the presidential elections in its second round, what will the picture look like, at home and abroad?

Globally:

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace saw that the margin of creative thinking for the West will be limited with Erdogan's victory, as "21 years of experience with the current government has mostly exhausted the West's expectations of a qualitative improvement in relations."

And the Turkish president's victorious exit from this juncture means, according to the foundation, that Erdogan and his "indomitable sense" will reach new highs, which will increase what it called his "fiery behavior."

As for the relations between Ankara, Washington, and the rest of the Western capitals, the foundation said that they would be "devoid of flexibility and subject to circumstantial crises."

The reason behind this lies in the fact that Turkey will be in dire need of foreign financial flows due to the economic hardship the country is witnessing, as the Foundation said, which will prompt Erdogan to manage his country's foreign policy within the constraints of this reality, that is, with "less adventurism and more stability." .

But at the same time, the AKP leader will continue to "see Turkey as a regional power, and a member of a new club of countries," which includes China and Russia, which sees itself as an independent power bloc, according to the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University.

The European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR) said that the approach of Turkish treatment in foreign policy will continue while Erdogan remains in power, and the strained relations with the European Union will continue, "without any progress towards constructive engagement."

In the eastern Mediterranean, the site saw that tensions with Cyprus and Greece will not recede, but rather may escalate, with Ankara pressing for a two-state solution on the island.

As for Syria, the site expected the Turkish government's attempts, under Erdogan's rule, to continue to normalize its relations with Syria and other countries. This would facilitate the return of some Syrian refugees to their homeland, as the website said, bearing in mind that the issue of asylum is a top concern for Turkish voters.

For its part, the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) suggested that the United States and Europe would remain silent, and work to find new ways to work with Erdogan upon his victory.

And while relations are expected to be turbulent with the West, it is seen that they will be more stable with Russia, especially after the participation of Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in an official ceremony marking the start of supplying the Akkuyu nuclear power plant with nuclear fuel, days before the start of the elections. public in Turkey.

During the ceremony, which was held last April, Putin stressed that the station is the most important project for Russia and Turkey, and promised that it would allow the development of joint economic relations and the promotion of coexistence between the two countries.

Under Erdogan, Turkey maintained its relations with Russia, at a time when the West cut it off after Moscow launched its military operation in Ukraine. Recently, Ankara played the most prominent role, along with the United Nations, in completing the "grain deal" between Ukraine and Russia, which Erdogan announced its extension two weeks ago.

This deal is an integral part of a set of specific agreements for a period of 3 years, which provide for the lifting of the ban on Russian exports of food and fertilizers, the reconnection of the Russian Agricultural Bank to the “SWIFT” system, and the resumption of the supply of agricultural machinery, spare parts and services.

Domestically:

On the domestic front, the head of the Justice and Development Party announced that his economic program for the next stage reveals a return to more traditional policies regarding the "free market" economy.

There is talk that Erdogan's economic program will be very similar to that laid out in the AKP's 2002 electoral platform. In other words, the AKP will return to its "origins" and abandon "heretical economics".

During the past months, the Turkish government has resorted to what is called the "election economy", which permeates it by increasing government spending and reducing collection, by raising the minimum wage, facilitating loans, scheduling debts, and supporting some segments.

The public coalition, led by Erdogan, seeks to increase Turkey's gross domestic product and increase annual growth by 5.5% from 2024 to 2028.

Likewise, the alliance is working to achieve a gross domestic product of $1.5 trillion by the end of 2028, to adopt a policy of developing the defense industries sector and combating terrorism, and to establish the "Istanbul Canal" project.

The Turkish president promised the voters to make Turkey "strong and multi-alliance," and also promised to create 6 million jobs, accusing the West of "trying to overthrow him, after more than two decades in power," in addition to giving tourism a big boost.

However, the opposition is suspicious of Erdogan's promises, especially on the economic issue, and its alliance has made many economic promises. However, the most prominent criticism that reached it is that it does not provide clear mechanisms and policies to achieve its promises.

Faced with this reality, the Turkish interior is vulnerable to a raging political ram between the elected president and his opponents, especially with Kilicdaroglu's statement that he is "sad for Turkey's future", without officially acknowledging the loss.

The issue of the political system that governs the country was raised as one of the main headlines over which electoral competition was intensified. While the opposition was threatening to restore the parliamentary system to rule Turkey in the event of the victory of its candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the "Justice and Development" promised to preserve the presidential system.

According to the election results, Erdogan's assumption of power for another 5 years means the continuation of the presidential system, which provides the president with broad powers, most notably the direct appointment of senior state officials, including ministers, university presidents and judges.

_________

* Adapted from Fatima Karnib's reporting on the Turkish Elections

US officials to the New York Times: Ukraine most likely carried out the attack on the Kremlin carracterized by Moscow as an assassination attempt

US officials to the New York Times: Ukraine most likely carried out the attack on the Kremlin carracterized by Moscow as an assassination attempt

    Wednesday, May 24, 2023   No comments

That attack that was characterized by Moscow as an assassination attempt to kill Putin is  was likely carried out by Ukraine occirding to US officials who spoke to New York Times.

On Wednesday, The New York Times quoted US officials as saying that the Ukrainians were "most likely" to have carried out the attack that took place with rallies on the Russian presidential building (the Kremlin) on May 3.

The officials said that US intelligence reached its initial assessment through intercepted communications, and that the attack was likely orchestrated by one of Ukraine's special military or intelligence units.

They also indicated that it was not clear if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky or his senior officials knew about the operation prior to its launch.

It is noteworthy that Russia had accused the United States of being behind the attack on the Kremlin, noting that it had several options for a measured and balanced response to the attack.

Russian officials also demanded the liquidation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in response to the attack.

Kiev has denied any involvement in the attack on the Kremlin, accusing Moscow of deliberately highlighting it in the media to justify any possible escalation of the conflict inside Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that efforts by Kiev and Washington to deny any responsibility for the attack on the Kremlin are completely absurd, and that decisions regarding such attacks are not taken in Ukraine, but in Washington, and Kiev implements what is asked of it.

The Russian Foreign Ministry also confirmed that there is no doubt that the Kiev regime was behind the attack, noting that the actions of the Kiev regime - which it described as "criminal" - confirm its unwillingness to settle the ongoing conflict through political and diplomatic means, threatening those responsible for the attacks with strict and inevitable punishment.

Turkish elections news, Erdogan: Türkiye and Russia need each other, rejects talks with third candidate

Turkish elections news, Erdogan: Türkiye and Russia need each other, rejects talks with third candidate

    Friday, May 19, 2023   No comments

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke to CNN about a number of files, including elections and foreign policy.

The Turkish president said he would work "without a doubt" with US President Joe Biden, or with "anyone who might replace him."

In response to his reminder of his condemnation of the statements of US President Joe Biden, who described him as a "tyrant", during his campaign in the US presidential elections, Erdogan said: "Can someone who goes to the second round, and not the first (in the Turkish presidential elections), be a dictator? ".

He asked, "What kind of dictatorship is this? Given that the People's Alliance enters Parliament with 322 deputies, and the person who presides over it comes to the fore, and is heading to a second round."

Erdogan described his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin as "special," and said: "We have no problems in our relationship with Russia at the present time, and we are not at a stage where we impose sanctions on it as the West did. We are not bound by the West's sanctions."

Erdogan criticized the "unbalanced approach of the West with Russia," as he put it, saying: "You need a balanced approach towards a country like Russia, which could have been a much more fortunate approach."

He stressed that "Turkey and Russia need each other in every field."

Regarding Turkey's approval of Sweden's request to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, "NATO," Erdogan said that he was "not ready for Sweden to enter NATO."

Regarding the return of Syrian-Turkish relations, he made it clear that he could reconcile with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad if they agree on how to deal with the PKK file.

It is worth mentioning that the Turkish Minister of Defense, Hulusi Akar, spoke weeks ago about the possibility of meeting the leaders of Turkey and Syria within the framework of the quadripartite formula, and said in this regard: "We need to make appropriate preparations."

Erdogan said he would not negotiate with Turkish presidential candidate Sinan Ogan.

The Turkish president also expressed his confidence that the people will show the strength of Turkish democracy in the second round of the presidential elections as well.

He said, during the interview: "I believe that my people will show the strong Turkish democracy in the elections that will take place on Sunday (28th of this month) as well. There was a strong participation rate of nearly 90% (in the first round)."

And the Turkish president indicated that "this participation rate is very important, and it is less than its counterpart in the world." As for the Turkish economy, Erdogan said he is committed to his interest rate theory.

Last Sunday, Turkey witnessed presidential and parliamentary elections, and the candidate of the "Audience Alliance" President Erdogan, the candidate of the "Nation Alliance" leader of the Republican People's Party Kamal Kilicdaroglu, and the candidate of the "Ata Alliance" (ancestors) Sinan Ogan competed in the presidential elections.

Turkey's Supreme Electoral Commission officially announced that the second round of the presidential elections would take place on May 28, due to the fact that no candidate received more than 50 percent of the vote.

Analyzing the news and views released by Ukrainian and Russian sources about the status and importance of Bakhmut

Analyzing the news and views released by Ukrainian and Russian sources about the status and importance of Bakhmut

    Wednesday, May 17, 2023   No comments

Parsing the news and analysis released by Ukrainian and Russian sources about the status of Bakhmut, the year-long battle in the city appears to have limited strategic value, but became important to Ukrainian politicians as a prop to secure more military support.

Here are some facts that might help us understand the narratives about the battle of Bakhmut.

Bakhmut is an industrial city, part of the Donetsk region but also just 20 miles away from Luhansk, both regions are inhabited by majority ethnic Russians and were annexed by the Russian federation as autonomous republics. 

These regions have been at war with the government in Kiev since 2014. When the Russian troops entered Ukraine in 2022, Bakhmut became the frontline. Ukrainian troops used the underground structures and the hills overlooking the region establish durable defensive lines. Those defensive lines became challenged since Russian troops rotated out of the south (west of the river in Kherson region, and concentrated on the Bakhmut-Avdiivka line of contact. In a way, Bakhmut became important for both sides for different reasons:

The Ukrainians want to preserve Bakhmut because they wanted to show that they can not only hold the line, but also take back territory, including Crimea. If Ukrainian government loses Bakhmut right after claiming victory in Kherson, that would raise doubt about its ability to achieve its stated goals—liberate all territories including Crimea.

Russian need to not only take Bakhmut, but move past Bakhmut to justify the redeployment of troops this active line of contact stretching from Dvorichne in the north to Velyka Novosilka in the south. 

Bakhmut is also important in terms of optics. Since it is seen as a year long battle, it enforces the narratives that Ukrainian troops can hold their ground and retake territories. This would explain why the head of the government made his tour of Europe now and not earlier or later: he can use the “success” Bakhmut to secure more military aid. Many analysists believe that if his troops do not take back new territories this year, Western aid will stop. So this cannot be a lost opportunity in that context.

The big picture, however is this: regardless of ends up holding Bakhmut, can these images of a liberated city apply to Kiev too? In other words, are Ukrainians willing to fight in every major city the same way they are fighter in Bakhmut?

China's time to become a global powerhouse is now, how will it manage its new role?

China's time to become a global powerhouse is now, how will it manage its new role?

    Wednesday, April 05, 2023   No comments

The West’s unlimited military support to Ukraine, its unbalanced Middle East relations, its ambiguous stance on the status of Taiwan, and its failure to honor its nuclear deal with Iran are propelling China to become a global leader. These three news stories should make the case for the role China will play in this decade.

_____________

How China sees the expansion of NATO? 

This editorial in a Chinese media outlet close to the ruling class of China provides the answer.

 Finland joins NATO; Europe's overall security landscape more 'precarious'

With a Finnish flag rising first time outside the NATO headquarters, the Nordic nation officially became NATO's 31st member country at a meeting of the US-led bloc's foreign ministers, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on Tuesday in Brussels, a historic shift away from the Nordic nation's traditional policy of neutrality, which Chinese experts believe now pushes Finland to the forefront against Russia and may spur Moscow to boost its nuclear deployment, thus making Europe's overall security landscape even more precarious.

___________

Political division in Taiwan regarding the position of Beijing and Washington

While Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen was visiting the United States, her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou was in China, where the country's two main parties were debating which superpower would side with her.

 

During a long overseas trip to the United States, the Taiwanese president delivered a consistent and blunt message about countering Chinese threats: Taiwan needs the United States to be supportive, the newspaper reported.

 

But while she was garnering American support, her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, was working on a very different agenda, and is currently on a tour of China, the first former president to ever make such a visit, according to the newspaper.

 

She noted that the symbolism of Ma Ying-jeou's visit to China was "amazing" and stood in stark contrast to Tsai's travels.

 

"Strongly echoing the rhetoric used by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Ma Jiu invoked the memory of China's past humiliation at the hands of foreign invaders, during a visit last week to the mausoleum of Sun Yat-sen, the founder of the Republic of China who overthrew the last emperor in 1911," she added.

 

Speaking of a delegation of Taiwanese youths he was accompanying, Ma Jiu said that they "will strive peacefully to revitalize the relationship with China, and sincerely hope that the two sides of the Strait will make joint efforts to achieve peace and prevent war."

 

According to the newspaper, the conflicting flights indicate that the question of Taiwan's belonging in the world may reach a point of crisis, amid the most intense hostility between China and the United States.

 

Earlier in the day, the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration in Fujian announced that military authorities had begun patrolling the Taiwan Strait, following reports of a meeting between Taiwan's President and US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

 

And Tsai arrived, on Tuesday evening, in Los Angeles, USA, to hold this meeting, after a diplomatic tour in Central America.

 

McCarthy had planned to follow the example of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat who visited Taiwan last August, angering China.

 

Yesterday, Chinese diplomacy saw that the meeting between the two parties would "cause more damage" to relations between Beijing and Washington.

 

_______

 

Macron: China can play a major role in achieving peace in Ukraine

 

French President Emmanuel Macron said today, Wednesday, at the start of a three-day state visit to China that Beijing can "play a major role" in finding a "path leading to peace" in Ukraine.

 

Macron told the French community in the Chinese capital: "China has proposed a peace plan, thus showing a will to take responsibility and try to forge a path leading to peace."

 

Macron added, "This war has trampled many of the principles of the United Nations Charter, which we, as members of the Security Council, must firmly defend."

He continued, "I see that defending it also means progressing together, and trying to find a path that leads to peace."

 

Last February, China proposed its plan for peace in Ukraine, which consists of 12 clauses that include calls for a cease-fire, respect for the legitimate interests of all countries in the field of security, and a settlement of the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.

 

It is noteworthy that French President Emmanuel Macron arrived, today, Wednesday, in China for a 3-day visit, according to what was announced by the Elysee Palace, on his first trip to this country since 2019.

 

Macron will hold talks, tomorrow, Thursday, with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in part, and will move to Canton in southern China on Friday.

 

Before leaving for China, the French President held a telephone conversation with his American counterpart, Joe Biden. During which they expressed their hope that "China will engage in joint efforts to accelerate an end to the war in Ukraine and establish a sustainable peace," according to French officials.

___________________

Reuters: The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iran will meet in Beijing tomorrow

An Iranian official and a Saudi-owned newspaper reported that the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iran will meet in Beijing tomorrow, as the two regional powers seek to arrange the next steps for their diplomatic rapprochement, under a Chinese-brokered deal.

 "The two chief envoys agreed to meet on April 6 in Beijing, because China facilitated the agreement," a senior Iranian official told Reuters.

   

NATO nations’ support to Ukrainian armed forces reaches another level

NATO nations’ support to Ukrainian armed forces reaches another level

    Thursday, March 30, 2023   No comments

Ukrainian officials have shown off nee weapons systems received from NATO nations, which they said will allow them to launch offensive actions to take back territories now under Russian control.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, released images of new weapons and transport systems handed over by the US. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov, was shown testing the new Strykers and Cougars handed over by USA.

Also, more than 300 powerful DJI Mavic 3T Thermal copters for Ukraine's Defense Forces were transferred to the frontlines, according to Ukrainian forces.

This unprecedented number of weapons transferred to a war zone is likely to push both sides to escalate.

Russian officials have used a strategy of inserting new weapons to the battle field incrementally and in reaction to NATO’s increased involvement, which can lead to a dangerous nuclear confrontation.

These developments bring to the forefront once again the consequences of illegal wars, invasions, and aggressions undertaken by Western states in the last 3 decades. Most recently, the US invasion of Iraq and how that event is unmasking the inequality that permeates the world today. If Iraq has had reliable and powerful allies with nuclear weapons, who decided to take the same actions taken by Western nations to support Ukraine resist an illegal war, what would the outcome have been? What if Russia and China, had used the same logic, and decided to openly provide weapons and military support to Iraq to defend itself? What would that have done to the world order then?

And did Russia exert a level of restraint, voicing their opposition to those illegal wars (Ira, Syria, Yemen, and Libya) without providing any lethal aid to these attacked nations to defend themselves, made them think that if they did the same, attack another nations in the future, the West will do the same (not provide military assistance)?

Since that assumption is proved wrong now, will Russia supply its friends who are under threat of attack from Western nations, like Iran, with all kinds of weapons and technology to pre-empt an attack, or strike military alliances that would allow them to intervene militarily in defense of their allies?

This is how complex the effects of the war in Ukraine and the West’s reaction to it is. With election cycles around the corner in key Westerm nations, it is only  matter of months, not years, to see how these decisions will shape the outcome of the war in Ukraine.