Historic China-Canada Trade Reset Signals a Shifting Global Order

Historic China-Canada Trade Reset Signals a Shifting Global Order

    Friday, January 16, 2026   No comments

 In a landmark diplomatic and economic breakthrough, Canada and China have agreed to slash bilateral tariffs on key goods—including electric vehicles (EVs), canola, and seafood—marking what Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called a “historic reset” of relations strained for nearly a decade. The agreement, finalized during Carney’s state visit to Beijing—the first by a Canadian prime minister since 2017—comes not only in the wake of long-standing trade tensions but also amid growing global resistance to America’s increasingly unilateral economic coercion.

The Enduring Fallout of Trump-Era Protectionism—and Its Escalation

The roots of today’s China-Canada trade thaw lie in the turbulence unleashed by the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff regime. Beginning in 2018, Washington imposed sweeping duties on Chinese goods, triggering retaliatory measures from Beijing and setting off a chain reaction that ensnared allied economies like Canada’s. When Ottawa aligned with U.S.-led sanctions on Chinese EVs in 2024—imposing a blanket 100% tariff—Beijing responded by targeting Canadian agricultural exports, particularly canola, with tariffs soaring to 84%. The fallout was swift: by 2025, China’s imports of Canadian goods had dropped by 10.4%, hitting farmers and rural communities hardest.

Now, both nations are stepping back from the brink. Under the new deal, Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese EVs annually at a reduced 6.1% most-favored-nation tariff, while China will lower its canola seed tariff to approximately 15%. The changes take effect March 1, 2026, and are expected to unlock billions in trade across agriculture, fisheries, and clean tech sectors.

But this reset is not just about mending past wounds—it’s a strategic recalibration in response to a broader American policy trend that threatens global economic stability.

New U.S. Tariffs on Iran Partners Backfire Before They Even Take Effect

Adding fuel to this realignment is the Biden administration’s recently announced plan to impose 25% punitive tariffs on any country that conducts significant trade with Iran—a move ostensibly aimed at isolating Tehran but one that risks alienating two of the world’s largest economies: China and India. Both nations are among Iran’s top trading partners, with China alone importing over $20 billion in Iranian oil annually under long-term energy agreements, often settled in yuan or rupees to bypass U.S. financial controls.

Rather than compelling compliance, this latest U.S. sanction threat is accelerating a counter-movement. Countries unwilling to sacrifice lucrative partnerships with Iran—or bow to Washington’s extraterritorial demands—are deepening ties with China as a hedge against American economic coercion. The Canada-China deal is just the latest example. Similar overtures are already underway from Gulf states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which—while maintaining security ties with the U.S.—are quietly expanding yuan-denominated trade, joint infrastructure projects, and technology partnerships with Beijing.

As one Asian diplomat recently confided: “If doing business with half the world means being punished by Washington, then we must build alternatives that don’t depend on it.”

Prime Minister Carney made this shift explicit. Speaking after his meeting with President Xi Jinping, he warned that “the architecture, the multilateral system is being eroded—undercut.” His reference to a “new global order” reflects a sober recognition: the era of unquestioned U.S. economic leadership is ending—not because of Chinese aggression, but because of American overreach.

President Xi reinforced this vision, stating: “A divided world cannot address the common challenges facing humanity. The solution lies in upholding and practicing true multilateralism.” Notably, both leaders pledged to expand cooperation in green technology, critical minerals, and food security—sectors central to future economic sovereignty.

Carney set an ambitious goal: a 50% increase in Canadian exports to China by 2030. Achieving it would not only revive rural economies but also position Canada as a pragmatic player in a multipolar trade system—one where loyalty is earned through partnership, not enforced through tariffs.

The Self-Defeating Logic of Economic Coercion

The irony is stark. By wielding tariffs as weapons—first against China, now against any nation engaging with Iran—the United States is not strengthening its global position but weakening it. Each new sanction pushes traditional allies and neutral economies closer to Beijing’s orbit, not out of ideological alignment, but out of economic necessity and strategic self-preservation.

The Canada-China reset is not an isolated event. It is a harbinger. As more nations conclude that reliance on U.S. markets comes with unacceptable political risk, they will seek alternatives. And China—offering market access without political strings—is ready to fill the void. In the long run, America’s tariff wars may succeed only in hastening the very multipolar world it fears.

Indonesia now has full membership in BRICS

Indonesia now has full membership in BRICS

    Monday, January 06, 2025   No comments

Indonesia has officially joined the BRICS group of major emerging economies as a full member, the Brazilian government said in a statement on Monday, a bloc that brings together emerging economies including China, India and Russia.

The Brazilian Foreign Ministry said the most populous country in Southeast Asia “shares with other members the desire to reform global governance institutions and contribute positively to cooperation within the Global South.”

Indonesia’s candidacy was approved at the 2023 BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Brazil will assume the presidency of the group in 2025. BRICS comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but is expanding to include other countries.

Indonesia formally put in request for BRICS membership last year during the organization's meeitng in Russia.

After the announcement from Barizil, China released its own statement saying that it "welcomes and warmly congratulates Indonesia on becoming a full member of BRICS", according to a foreign ministry spokesperson.

Islamic D-8: can this intergovernmental organization help stabilize Southwest Asia and North Africa?

Islamic D-8: can this intergovernmental organization help stabilize Southwest Asia and North Africa?

    Tuesday, December 17, 2024   No comments

Cairo will host the 11th edition of the D8 Summit on Thursday, 19-12-2024, which will discuss ways to confront successive global economic and political changes. The summit will be held under the slogan "Investing in Youth and Supporting Small and Medium Enterprises: Shaping Tomorrow's Economy."

Egypt chairs the current edition of the summit, having assumed the presidency of the group last May and will continue to lead its work until the end of next year.

Several summits and bilateral meetings are scheduled to be held on the sidelines of the D8 Summit in Cairo, whether at the level of presidents or delegations participating in the conference.

The meeting of the foreign ministers of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Malaysia, and Bangladesh will be held tomorrow, Wednesday.

Several heads of state will be attending this summit this year, including Iran's president.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian plans to attend the summit of the Developing Eight (D8) Islamic countries in Egypt on Thursday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tuesday. This is the first visit by an Iranian president to Egypt in more than a decade.

Relations between Egypt and Iran have generally been tense in recent decades, but the two countries have intensified high-level diplomatic contacts since the Gaza war broke out last year, in which Egypt has tried to mediate. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi traveled to Egypt in October to discuss regional issues with Egyptian officials, and his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdel Aty traveled to Tehran in July to attend Pezeshkian’s inauguration.

Indonesian president will attend D-8

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto will travel to Egypt on Tuesday to attend meetings of a group of eight major Muslim nations known as the Developing Eight (D8) Economic Cooperation Organization, the government said.

Prabowo will attend meetings, including a D8 summit on Thursday, and accept the group’s chairmanship for a two-year term starting on Jan. 1, 2026, Foreign Ministry spokesman Roy Soemirat told reporters on Monday.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will participate tomorrow, Wednesday, in the 21st meeting of the G8 Foreign Ministers Council, which will be held in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, within the framework of the D8 Summit.

According to diplomatic sources in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, the meeting will address developments in the Palestinian Gaza Strip and other regional issues.

During the meeting, Fidan is expected to call for an immediate end to the genocide committed by Israel in Palestine and its measures aimed at turning the war into a regional conflict.

He is also expected to point out the importance of advancing efforts to implement the two-state solution in conjunction with reaching an immediate ceasefire.

Fidan will highlight the importance of providing urgent humanitarian aid to Gaza and increasing support for the efforts of the workers of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).

The meeting of the Foreign Ministers Council comes within the framework of preparing for the summit hosted by Cairo next Thursday, with the participation of delegations from the group's countries: Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan, Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh.

The summit is scheduled to be held under the theme “Investing in Youth and Supporting SMEs: Shaping Tomorrow’s Economy.”

Attendance of the D-8 Summit in Cairo

The Indonesian government announced that President Prabowo Subianto will travel to Egypt today, Tuesday, to attend the group's meetings and the upcoming summit next Thursday, and will accept the group's presidency for a year.

In addition, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei announced that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will participate in the G8 Summit in Egypt.

The Pakistani Embassy in Cairo also confirmed that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will pay an official visit to Egypt from December 18 to 20 to participate in the summit's activities.

President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi handed the Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati an invitation to participate in the summit's activities, as the Lebanese Prime Minister received the invitation from the Egyptian Ambassador Alaa Moussa, during his reception on December 9 at the Grand Serail.

The Middle East Eye website also reported that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will participate in the group's meeting and will hold meetings related to current developments in Syria.

About the D-8: the Developing Eight

The G8, also known as the Developing Eight, is a development cooperation system between the following member states: Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey. This system also adds a new dimension aimed at strengthening economic relations and social ties among its members.

The G8 was officially established at the Summit of Heads of State and Government held in Istanbul on June 15, 1997 (Istanbul Declaration), following the "Cooperation for Development" Conference held on October 22, 1996 and a series of preparatory meetings.

The G8 aims to:

Improving the position of developing countries in the global economy.

Creating new opportunities in trade relations.

Enhancing the participation of developing countries in international decision-making.

Achieving better living standards.

The most important features of the G8:

It is a global system, not a regional one, as is clearly evident in its founding members.

Its membership is open to other developing countries that share the objectives and principles of the Group and are linked by common ties with it.

It is a forum that has no adverse effect on the bilateral and international obligations of its member states towards its membership and towards international organizations.

Indonesia and China relations: Prabowo visits Beijing for first state visit, as Singapore connects its economy to China

Indonesia and China relations: Prabowo visits Beijing for first state visit, as Singapore connects its economy to China

    Friday, November 08, 2024   No comments

At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, Prabowo will pay a state visit to China from Friday to Sunday. President Xi will hold a welcoming ceremony for him, and the two heads of state will hold talks. Premier Li Qiang and Zhao Leji, chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, will meet with him respectively, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. 

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto arrived at Beijing Capital International Airport, China, at 6:25 p.m. local time on Friday for his inaugural state visit, at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Accompanied by his son, Didit Hediprasetyo, Prabowo disembarked from the Boeing 737-700 BBJ presidential aircraft and was greeted with a guard of honor performed by the People’s Liberation Army. A young girl then presented the Indonesian head of state with flowers.

Chinese Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Han Jun, received Prabowo and his officials, including Minister of Foreign Affairs Retno Marsudi and Cabinet Secretary Teddy Indra Wijaya, at the airport.

Spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, said earlier that Prabowo's decision to choose China as the first stop on his inaugural overseas tour reflects the importance of Indonesia-China bilateral ties.

Another neighbor to China, and significant Muslim influence, Singapore, is also strengthening relations with China. The Singapore Business Federation (SBF) organized the 7th Singapore-China Trade and Investment Forum (SCTIF) in Shanghai on Wednesday, on the sidelines of the 7th China International Import Expo (CIIE), with 15 memorandums of understanding valued at more than S$60 million ($45.26 million) signed, setting the stage for new growth opportunities and strengthening bilateral partnerships. 

Media Review: Finnish President's article in The Economist, "the era of Western dominance as we know it is over"

Media Review: Finnish President's article in The Economist, "the era of Western dominance as we know it is over"

    Monday, July 08, 2024   No comments

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has said that what we are witnessing today is in many ways equivalent to what happened in 1918, 1945 and 1989, and that the next few years will likely determine the world order, its balance and its dynamics for the rest of the century, or at least for decades to come.

In an article in The Economist, Stubb spoke of “moments in international relations when we know that the world is changing, but we don’t know exactly where it is heading,” stressing that “we are living in one of those moments when an era dies and a new one is born.”

The Finnish president noted in his article that “the things that were supposed to bring us together – trade, technology, energy, information and currency – are now tearing us apart.”

Stubb admitted that he was among many who believed that the end of the Cold War would mean the end of history, but that did not happen. The era of Western hegemony, as we used to know it, is over.

He believed that the question now is how global power will be shared in the future, while we are now witnessing a reorganization of the balance between three areas of power: the global West, the global East, and the Global South, stressing that this classification of the power triangle, if it constitutes an oversimplification, helps to clarify how the world is changing.

"West and East are fighting for hearts and minds in the South"

Stubb summed up the equation by saying that "West and East are fighting for hearts and minds in the South", attributing the matter to his realization that the South will decide the direction of the new world order.

Stubb believed that the West is mistaken if it imagines that the South will be attracted to it only because of what he called "the values ​​or power of freedom and democracy", and that the East is also mistaken if it imagines that huge infrastructure projects and direct financing will give it complete influence in the South.

The Finnish president concluded in his article that "it is ultimately a matter of values ​​and interests together", and that "the South will choose what it wants, because it can do so".

Stubb believed that the West must choose between continuing to believe in the illusion that it can remain dominant, as it has done for centuries, or accepting the facts of change and starting to act accordingly, especially towards the South.

Stubb stressed that Indian Foreign Minister Vinay Mohan Kwatra provided material worthy of thought when he pointed out that “Europe must get rid of the mentality that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.”

He pointed out that one of the reasons why the East is a more convincing partner for the South is related to the systematic infrastructure, financial and development programs that China is implementing around the world, describing China’s strategy as “successful.”

Stubb concluded his article by emphasizing that if the West “returns to its old ways of direct or indirect domination, or outright arrogance, it will lose the battle.”

Work, Wealth, and Artificial Intelligence

Work, Wealth, and Artificial Intelligence

    Thursday, May 09, 2024   No comments

With every human adoption of a new tool, fear about the future of humanity follows. Many of these adoptions are profoundly justified. The development of nuclear weapons, for instance, raised and continue to raise fear among reasonable people: How can we justify that development of such weapon that would allow some of us to discriminately kill not just humans but living beings on the face of the planet with just few weapons? The development and deployment of gun powder nearly annihilated entire populations. The development of the wheel and modern transportation systems enabled some peoples to overtake distant lands and destroy indigenous communities across the globe and enslave human beings and sell them continents away. All these new tools and systems allowed those in power to do more with less, to earn more with few resources; that is to avoid work themselves through the deployment of tools and the exploitation of other humans and animals. In short, humans drive for developing new tools can be explained by their desire to avoid work that they must do themselves. The development of the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology exemplifies the desire for bypassing work and the anxiety of losing work. 

 

To understand the emerging threat and opportunity of AI, news media outlets called on persons who built wealth to share their insight. One of the richest individuals in the world who built his massive wealth by investing “cash” in the businesses that does work without doing work himself, Warren Buffett, weighed in: AI “can create an enormous amount of leisure time,” Buffett said. That opinion suggests that with AI taking over many tasks humans use to do, people will be freed to “leisure” stuff. That conclusion has never been proven correct following every major human adoption of transformative tools.

 

To support his view, Buffett referenced theories of John Maynard Keynes, “one of the most important economic thinkers of the modern era, who correctly predicted output per capita would grow at an exponential rate, but failed to predict what humans would do with increased productivity.”

 

Here, Buffett unknowingly weaken his argument: he confused “increased productivity” with the theory that increased productivity will allow humans to work less and have more “leisure time”. That hypothesis cannot be supported by the data. In the US, for example, where machination of work has led to astounding levels of increased output, workers, can barely afford days, not weeks, of vacation time, let alone family time.

 

Keynes, whose work is recommended for summer read by Buffett, did not seem to believe that adoption of new tools will allow human workers to take time off or find less demanding work to do.  Keynes seemed to recognize the destabilizing effects of new technologies on the workforce and society in general, which made him a strong promoter of “government intervention through social and job programs in order to stabilize economics” as he argued in his books “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money”.

 

Government (State) intervention in economic life is not a modern phenomenon. The eminent historian and Islamic economic philosopher, Abd al-Rahman Ibn Khaldun, underscored the function of the State in creating global markets. Writing six hundred years ago, Ibn Khaldun argued that “work becomes the only store of value, represented by the temporal intensity (time) and level of diversification and sophistication of work (skill; expertise).” However, how work is rewarded and valued, in the view of Ibn Khaldun, is dependent on the existence and undertakings of the State (dawla), “the force that can secure, redistribute, and grow wealth (amwal).”  He summarizes this paradigm this way: “Power and State produce the market of the world.’ [al-Sultan wa-a'-dawla suq li-'l-alam; al-dawla hiya al-suq al-aazam] (Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddima). 

 

Taking human knowledge on work and wealth, and the systems that govern work and the production of wealth, from centuries passed, not just a mere 200 years, one can appreciate the persistent need to appreciate Work, not just as an activity that humans must do to subsist, but as a human and societal function that must be systematized.