Are the fighting in the north and the resisting in the south signs of disintegration of Syria?

Are the fighting in the north and the resisting in the south signs of disintegration of Syria?

    Wednesday, January 08, 2025   No comments

Weeks since the fall of the Baath regime in Syria, one main armed faction, the most organized and powerful group—HTS, took control of the country. The group’s leader has been acting as the country’s leader and governments that supported the armed rebellion are accepting his role as the de facto leader. However, instead of starting a process of reconciliation, the new rulers are placing themselves in a positions that would allow them to control the future of the country. This approach appears to be pushing other groups to do the same: hold tight to whatever power they secured in the past 14 years and leverage such power to secure a significant role in the future. This trend may result in the breakdown of Syrian into at least three regions, similar to what happened in Libya. These are some of the signs that point to that possibility.

Violent clashes between Turkey-supported "National Army" and US-supported "SDF"

Newsmedia correspondents in Syria reported on Wednesday that a Turkish drone targeted a SDF vehicle in the countryside of Ayn al-Arab "Kobani" in the eastern countryside of Aleppo.

The report detailed that the vicinity of the Qarqozak Bridge, located south of the city of Ayn al-Arab "Kobani", was subjected to Turkish artillery shelling, while the factions of the "National Army", affiliated with Turkey, bombed the SDF sites at the bridge with missiles. A Turkish drone targeted a SDF rocket launcher in the village of Sakul in the countryside of Manbij, east of Aleppo.

In the same context, the media center of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) confirmed that "Turkish warplanes bombed Tishrin Dam and its surroundings with a number of raids, coinciding with attacks carried out by the mercenary factions affiliated with Turkey on villages north of Tishrin Dam and southeast of Manbij, where violent clashes are taking place between the forces of the Manbij Military Council and the mercenaries."

In Kobani, Turkish drones bombed a civilian car in the village of "Kirk-Girik", in addition to artillery shelling on the village of "Aslanki" south of the city.

According to the center, the danger of the Tishrin Dam collapsing is increasing, as the Turkish state bears any disaster that may befall the dam and other Syrian regions as a result of the Turkish air and artillery attacks that reached their peak during the morning hours today, and which continue until now.

The center confirmed that "the forces of the Manbij Military Council destroyed two vehicles loaded with Dushka weapons belonging to the mercenaries of the Turkish occupation north of Tishrin Dam during the ongoing clashes there."

The Turkish drone targeted a "Qasd" car in an airstrike in the vicinity of the city of Al-Malikiyah, northeast of Al-Hasakah, in the far northeast of Syria.

In Southern Syria, armed groups' leaders say they are not convinced to hand over weapons

The spokesman for the Southern Operations Room, which controls Daraa province, Nassim Abu Ara, said that the room’s fighters are not convinced by the idea of dissolving the armed groups announced by the new Syrian administration on December 25 of last year, when the new rulers confirmed that they had reached an agreement with the armed groups regarding their dissolution and integration under the Ministry of Defense.

In an interview with Agence France-Presse, Abu Ara confirmed that the fighters are hesitant to disarm and disband their ranks as ordered by the new rulers, noting that he and those with him are "an organized force in the south, possessing heavy weapons and equipment, and led by officers who defected from the army of the former regime," suggesting that they be merged as a military body with the Ministry of Defense. Abu Ara added that the "Southern Operations Room" led by local leader Ahmed al-Awda includes thousands of men who have no Islamic affiliation, and sources close to the group indicated that al-Awda enjoys good relations with Russia, as well as Jordan and the Emirates.

Israeli government committee: Turkey-backed Syria may pose greater threat than Iran

Israeli government committee: Turkey-backed Syria may pose greater threat than Iran

    Tuesday, January 07, 2025   No comments

An Israeli government committee said Monday that Turkey could pose a greater threat to Israel than Iran in Syria if it backs a hostile “Sunni Islamist” force in Damascus.

Ankara has emerged as a major beneficiary of the collapse of Bashar Assad’s government in Syria last month, following an offensive by rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other Turkish-backed Syrian groups.

Since then, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pledged all forms of support, including military and security assistance, to help the new Syrian caretaker government establish public order in the country under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Julani.

The “Committee to Evaluate the Defense Establishment Budget and Balance of Power,” headed by former National Security Council head Yaakov Nagel, is commonly referred to in Hebrew media as the Nagel Committee or the Nagel Committee.

The committee was established in 2023, before the outbreak of the Israeli war on Gaza, with the aim of making recommendations to the Defense Ministry on potential areas of conflict that Israel could face in the coming years.

The committee said that “the origins of the rebels and their leaders,” some of whom were previously associated with groups such as Al-Qaeda, should not be ignored.

For this reason, we must take into account that Israel may face a new threat emerging in Syria, which in some respects may be no less dangerous than the previous threat. This threat may take the form of a radical Sunni force that also refuses to recognize the existence of Israel,” the committee said.

Moreover, since the Sunni rebels will exercise political power by virtue of their central control in Syria, they may pose a greater threat than the Iranian threat, which has been limited by Israel’s continued actions, as well as the restrictions imposed on Iran by the sovereign Syrian state.

The committee warned that the problem could intensify if the Syrian force effectively becomes a proxy for Turkey, “as part of Turkey’s ambition to restore the Ottoman Empire to its former glory.”

We must prepare for war with Türkiye

Israeli media reported that a government committee recommended in its report to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, yesterday, Monday, to prepare for a possible war with Turkey, in light of growing concerns in Tel Aviv about Ankara’s alliance with the new administration in Damascus after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

The Jerusalem Post quoted the committee’s report as proposing to increase the defense budget by up to NIS 15 billion ($4.1 billion) annually over the next five years, to ensure that Israeli forces are equipped to deal with the challenges posed by Turkey, as well as other regional threats.

The committee also recommended several measures to prepare for a possible confrontation with Turkey:

Advanced weapons: Acquiring additional F-15 fighter jets, refueling aircraft, drones and satellites to enhance Israel’s ability to carry out long-range strikes.

Air defense systems: Enhancing multi-layered air defense capabilities, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow and the newly operational laser defense system.

Border security: Building a fortified security barrier along the Jordan Valley, which would represent a major shift in Israel’s defense strategy despite the potential diplomatic fallout with Jordan.

The Israeli Prime Minister's Office said in a statement on Monday that Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich had received the Nagel Committee's recommendations.

According to the statement, Netanyahu said, "We are in the midst of a fundamental change in the situation in the Middle East. We have known for years that Iran poses the greatest threat to us, both directly and through its proxies."

He continued, "Of course, we were keen to hit this axis hard. But we have seen the reality that: First, Iran is still there, and second, additional forces have entered the field, and we always need to be prepared for what may come."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had warned - a few weeks before the Syrian armed opposition overthrew the regime of Bashar al-Assad - that Israeli military moves in Syria could pose a direct threat to Turkey's security on its southern border.

Indonesia now has full membership in BRICS

Indonesia now has full membership in BRICS

    Monday, January 06, 2025   No comments

Indonesia has officially joined the BRICS group of major emerging economies as a full member, the Brazilian government said in a statement on Monday, a bloc that brings together emerging economies including China, India and Russia.

The Brazilian Foreign Ministry said the most populous country in Southeast Asia “shares with other members the desire to reform global governance institutions and contribute positively to cooperation within the Global South.”

Indonesia’s candidacy was approved at the 2023 BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Brazil will assume the presidency of the group in 2025. BRICS comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but is expanding to include other countries.

Indonesia formally put in request for BRICS membership last year during the organization's meeitng in Russia.

After the announcement from Barizil, China released its own statement saying that it "welcomes and warmly congratulates Indonesia on becoming a full member of BRICS", according to a foreign ministry spokesperson.

Türkiye cashing in early its investment in Syria's rebels; other regional leaders are following US footsteps and visiting Damascus

Türkiye cashing in early its investment in Syria's rebels; other regional leaders are following US footsteps and visiting Damascus

    Monday, December 23, 2024   No comments

Media review: How some media outlets, commentators, and politicians from the Middle East are reacting to the fast moving developments in Syria.

In a visit that could be considered a celebration of the success of the efforts to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who was the head of intelligence and is considered one of the most prominent figures who contributed to supporting the “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” organization that overthrew Assad, arrived in the Syrian capital, Damascus, to hold consultations with the new authorities in the country, represented by Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), the leader of the organization and commander of military operations, whom Turkey helped transform from a “jihadist leader” to a “statesman.” However, the visit, which coincides with the continuation of international political deliberations, in which Ankara plays a prominent role, took on a clear protocol form, as part of Ankara’s efforts to establish the legitimacy of the ruling authorities at the present time, especially after Washington announced its involvement in relations with the “Hayat.” Fidan’s keenness to demonstrate his strong relationship with al-Sharaa and demonstrate Turkey’s victory in the Syrian battle was also evident through a visit to Mount Qasioun, where the two men drank tea from the highest peak in Damascus. Turkish statements similar to those of the "High Commissioner" during the French mandate, by talking about the future of Syria and identifying the names that will rule the country, are accepted by the new American administration headed by Donald Trump, who will enter the White House in less than a month, which will provide Turkey with a large space for political and security work in Syria, by establishing a government loyal to Ankara on the one hand, and reducing the Kurdish role that the latter is still fighting, on the other hand.

The Turkish Foreign Minister, in statements he made after a meeting with "al-Julani" during which he discussed the political developments in Syria and the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey and ways to open the door for their return, indicated that he conveyed the greetings of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, continuing, in his victory speech, that "the Baath regime that lasted 61 years left behind great suffering, and we are here today to stand with you in achieving your aspirations." He added: "Your joy is our joy and your sadness is our sadness, and we are proud to support the truth and stand by you," stressing the need to "draft a new constitution that respects all components of Syrian society and guarantees the rights of minorities," in a way that opens the door to "building a new Syria, with full Turkish support." He pointed out that "President Erdogan issued his instructions to support you in everything you need to achieve progress. We are here to begin a new phase of construction." 

For its part, and in the context of what Ankara considers a "victory" for it, the Turkish "Anadolu" agency broadcast two photos; the first of which shows Fidan with "al-Julani", and the other of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi with al-Assad, on the first of this month, noting that the time difference between the two photos is 3 weeks. 

Turkish relations with new Syrian leaders will be determined by how the Kurdish matter will be handled. Here is what the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan, said in that regard:

"We must take action immediately. The territorial integrity of Syria is non-negotiable. I would like to clarify once again that there is absolutely no place for Kurdish armed groups in Syria."

Advanced steps, therefore, cannot be taken until some of the outstanding problems with the factions in the north and south are resolved, in addition to reaching an agreement under which the Kurds in the "SDF" are integrated into the new administration. However, the last mission seems somewhat difficult in light of the ongoing battles between the factions of the "National Army" affiliated with Turkey and the "SDF" in many areas, most notably the "Tishreen Dam" area, which field sources reported that the battles taking place in its vicinity caused severe damage to it. 

US officials sat face to face with the person US government designated a "terrorist"

US officials sat face to face with the person US government designated a "terrorist"

    Friday, December 20, 2024   No comments

US officials sat face to face with the person US government designated a "terrorist" and offered $10 million bounty for his arrest. Realizing the awkwardness of the moment, the administration announced later that it will cancel the reward for Jolani’s arrest.

In what must be a bizarre turn of events, US government officials set face to face with a man they allocated $10 million for information leading to determining his whereabouts, after designating him as a "terrorist" in 2017. 

State department still confirmed that the reward money is still valid, at a time when members of the State Department reportedly sat with Jolani. 

This development raises questions about the designation "terrorist", and now about what it takes for one to be removed from the list, which apparently is leading an armed rebellion that overthrows a regime.

US Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf announced, following a meeting with representatives of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, that Ahmed al-Sharaa (al-Jolani) is committed to not allowing terrorist groups to operate in Syria in a way that threatens the United States and neighboring countries.

According to news reports, US State Department delegation discussed with the commander-in-chief of the new administration in Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, on Friday, lifting sanctions on the Syrian people. The two sides also discussed removing Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham from the terrorist lists.

Media Review: US state department worker, "Tired of writing about dead kids"

Media Review: US state department worker, "Tired of writing about dead kids"

    Wednesday, December 18, 2024   No comments

This week, the Guardian published a report about another American protesting the US government's position on the war in Gaza, this time a US state department worker resigned over Israel-Gaza policy.

When Mike Casey arrived in Jerusalem in 2020, he wasn’t looking for a fight.

An army veteran with a stint in Iraq who joined the state department for over a decade of postings across Asia, he came with the measured optimism of a career diplomat – two years of Arabic training ahead, a potential change in administration, and a chance to make a difference. He’d eventually work his way up the ranks to become the state department’s deputy political counselor on Gaza.

What he didn’t anticipate was becoming a key witness to what he describes as a systematic failure of US foreign policy.

“The more informed you become on this issue, you can’t avoid realizing how bad it is,” Casey told the Guardian.

Casey resigned from the state department in July after four years at the job, discreetly leaving the post unlike other recent high-profile government departures. Now seated at his kitchen table in the quiet suburbs of northern Michigan, Casey reflected on how, as one of only two people in the entire US government explicitly focused on Gaza, he became an unwilling chronicler of a humanitarian catastrophe.

“I got so tired of writing about dead kids,” he said. “Just constantly having to prove to Washington that these children actually died and then watching nothing happen.”

Casey’s work function included documenting the humanitarian and political landscape through classified cables, research and reporting. But his disillusionment wasn’t sudden. It was a slow accumulation of bureaucratic betrayals – each report dismissed, each humanitarian concern bulldozed by political expediency.

“We would write daily updates on Gaza,” he said. Colleagues used to joke, he said, that they could attach cash to the reports and still nobody would read them.

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