Showing posts with label Economics and Finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics and Finance. Show all posts

Monday, July 08, 2024

Media Review: Finnish President's article in The Economist, "the era of Western dominance as we know it is over"

    Monday, July 08, 2024   No comments

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has said that what we are witnessing today is in many ways equivalent to what happened in 1918, 1945 and 1989, and that the next few years will likely determine the world order, its balance and its dynamics for the rest of the century, or at least for decades to come.

In an article in The Economist, Stubb spoke of “moments in international relations when we know that the world is changing, but we don’t know exactly where it is heading,” stressing that “we are living in one of those moments when an era dies and a new one is born.”

The Finnish president noted in his article that “the things that were supposed to bring us together – trade, technology, energy, information and currency – are now tearing us apart.”

Stubb admitted that he was among many who believed that the end of the Cold War would mean the end of history, but that did not happen. The era of Western hegemony, as we used to know it, is over.

He believed that the question now is how global power will be shared in the future, while we are now witnessing a reorganization of the balance between three areas of power: the global West, the global East, and the Global South, stressing that this classification of the power triangle, if it constitutes an oversimplification, helps to clarify how the world is changing.

"West and East are fighting for hearts and minds in the South"

Stubb summed up the equation by saying that "West and East are fighting for hearts and minds in the South", attributing the matter to his realization that the South will decide the direction of the new world order.


Stubb believed that the West is mistaken if it imagines that the South will be attracted to it only because of what he called "the values ​​or power of freedom and democracy", and that the East is also mistaken if it imagines that huge infrastructure projects and direct financing will give it complete influence in the South.


The Finnish president concluded in his article that "it is ultimately a matter of values ​​and interests together", and that "the South will choose what it wants, because it can do so".


Stubb believed that the West must choose between continuing to believe in the illusion that it can remain dominant, as it has done for centuries, or accepting the facts of change and starting to act accordingly, especially towards the South.


Stubb stressed that Indian Foreign Minister Vinay Mohan Kwatra provided material worthy of thought when he pointed out that “Europe must get rid of the mentality that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.”


He pointed out that one of the reasons why the East is a more convincing partner for the South is related to the systematic infrastructure, financial and development programs that China is implementing around the world, describing China’s strategy as “successful.”


Stubb concluded his article by emphasizing that if the West “returns to its old ways of direct or indirect domination, or outright arrogance, it will lose the battle.”


Thursday, May 09, 2024

Work, Wealth, and Artificial Intelligence

    Thursday, May 09, 2024   No comments

With every human adoption of a new tool, fear about the future of humanity follows. Many of these adoptions are profoundly justified. The development of nuclear weapons, for instance, raised and continue to raise fear among reasonable people: How can we justify that development of such weapon that would allow some of us to discriminately kill not just humans but living beings on the face of the planet with just few weapons? The development and deployment of gun powder nearly annihilated entire populations. The development of the wheel and modern transportation systems enabled some peoples to overtake distant lands and destroy indigenous communities across the globe and enslave human beings and sell them continents away. All these new tools and systems allowed those in power to do more with less, to earn more with few resources; that is to avoid work themselves through the deployment of tools and the exploitation of other humans and animals. In short, humans drive for developing new tools can be explained by their desire to avoid work that they must do themselves. The development of the emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology exemplifies the desire for bypassing work and the anxiety of losing work. 

 

To understand the emerging threat and opportunity of AI, news media outlets called on persons who built wealth to share their insight. One of the richest individuals in the world who built his massive wealth by investing “cash” in the businesses that does work without doing work himself, Warren Buffett, weighed in: AI “can create an enormous amount of leisure time,” Buffett said. That opinion suggests that with AI taking over many tasks humans use to do, people will be freed to “leisure” stuff. That conclusion has never been proven correct following every major human adoption of transformative tools.

 

To support his view, Buffett referenced theories of John Maynard Keynes, “one of the most important economic thinkers of the modern era, who correctly predicted output per capita would grow at an exponential rate, but failed to predict what humans would do with increased productivity.”

 

Here, Buffett unknowingly weaken his argument: he confused “increased productivity” with the theory that increased productivity will allow humans to work less and have more “leisure time”. That hypothesis cannot be supported by the data. In the US, for example, where machination of work has led to astounding levels of increased output, workers, can barely afford days, not weeks, of vacation time, let alone family time.

 

Keynes, whose work is recommended for summer read by Buffett, did not seem to believe that adoption of new tools will allow human workers to take time off or find less demanding work to do.  Keynes seemed to recognize the destabilizing effects of new technologies on the workforce and society in general, which made him a strong promoter of “government intervention through social and job programs in order to stabilize economics” as he argued in his books “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money”.

 

Government (State) intervention in economic life is not a modern phenomenon. The eminent historian and Islamic economic philosopher, Abd al-Rahman Ibn Khaldun, underscored the function of the State in creating global markets. Writing six hundred years ago, Ibn Khaldun argued that “work becomes the only store of value, represented by the temporal intensity (time) and level of diversification and sophistication of work (skill; expertise).” However, how work is rewarded and valued, in the view of Ibn Khaldun, is dependent on the existence and undertakings of the State (dawla), “the force that can secure, redistribute, and grow wealth (amwal).”  He summarizes this paradigm this way: “Power and State produce the market of the world.’ [al-Sultan wa-a'-dawla suq li-'l-alam; al-dawla hiya al-suq al-aazam] (Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddima). 

 

Taking human knowledge on work and wealth, and the systems that govern work and the production of wealth, from centuries passed, not just a mere 200 years, one can appreciate the persistent need to appreciate Work, not just as an activity that humans must do to subsist, but as a human and societal function that must be systematized.

  

Tuesday, December 12, 2023

A fatwa spurred the boycott of Israel's supporters in Indonesia

    Tuesday, December 12, 2023   No comments

Solidarity marches in Indonesia, like other countries of the world, carry many messages that are reflected in the behavior of the solidarity activists, the most prominent of which is the boycott of companies related to Israel, or that have explicitly announced any forms of support or sympathy within Israel.

Over the past two months, the boycott has expanded remarkably in Indonesia, which has the largest Islamic market in the world, and whose population this year is estimated by the Indonesian Statistics Authority to reach 278.8 million people.

The boycott campaigns had not become evident among Indonesians, until the Indonesian Ulema Council last month issued Fatwa No. 83 of 2023, which became the jurisprudential basis for the boycott campaign among the public.


The fatwa - which came in 9 pages - requires that zakat and alms funds be directed to support the struggle of the Palestinian people to gain their independence in the face of Israeli aggression, and prohibits any support for Israel or any party that supports it, even by opinion or influence to buy products that support it, according to the text of the fatwa.

Supporting fatwas were also issued, including those issued by the Issues Research Committee of the Nahdatul Ulama Association in West Java, which saw the boycott as imposing kifaya in solidarity with the people of Gaza, and as weakening the economy of the occupation and those who have a relationship with it.


The Indonesian Ulema Council did not issue any lists of companies to boycott. More than one list of products that were called for to be boycotted was spread by activists and tweeters, and not by any official body or specific institution. The Secretary of the Fatwa Committee of the Indonesian Ulama Council, Miftah al-Huda, said that his council is not authorized to issue such Those lists.


Vice President of the People's Consultative Council, Dr. Hidayat Nur Wahid, supported the fatwa of the Indonesian Ulema Council, and suggested that legislation be passed to boycott Israeli products, in light of their committing crimes against the Palestinian people, to be a legal basis for the boycott, and to confirm Indonesia's position towards Palestine and the occupation.


Nour Waheed called for the establishment of a body concerned with this matter that would collect information and be an information reference for everything related to the boycott, and who should be boycotted based on the relationship with Israel and its aggression, and the activities of those companies inside the country.


Indonesian-based media outlet Republik reported on Saturday that Indonesian advocates are calling for a boycott of Israeli-linked products due to the ongoing genocide in Gaza. 


The call for a boycott was initially launched by human rights groups in both Indonesia and Malaysia and gradually grew to garner support from various political parties, the outlet said.


The list reportedly includes companies such as Coca-Cola, Starbucks, McDonalds, KFC, Nestle and IBM. 


"We in the House of Representatives encourage this boycott movement of Israeli products to become the official stance of the Indonesian government to be followed by all businesses and society," a member of the country’s parliament, Amin Ak, told Republika on Wednesday.


Advocates of the boycott are urging individuals to opt for locally-made products over Israeli-linked ones.


"That would be a good moment to strengthen the tightening of the flow of imported goods, especially imports of some products," said a senior official at the Indonesian Industry Ministry, Putu Juli Ardika.



Monday, September 04, 2023

The aftermath of BRICS expansion: The West will warn its Arab Allies who joined the Bloc

    Monday, September 04, 2023   No comments

BRICS membership expanded, and with that expansion comes benefits and responsibilities. Among them is closer economic cooperation among member states. This would mean that Russia, the hardest hit country by Western sanctions, and Iran, the second longest hit country by Western sanctions will be able to trade without fear of Western limits. Tow of the Arab nations that joined BRICS recently, Saudi Arabia and UAE, will feel the heat from their Western allies. It already started.

Officials from the US, UK, and EU are planning to “jointly press” the UAE into halting shipments of goods to Russia that "could help Moscow in its war against Ukraine,' according to western officials who spoke with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

Several US and European officials started a trip to the Gulf monarchy on 4 September “as part of a collective global push to keep computer chips, electronic components, and other so-called dual-use products” away from Russia.

Western envoys also traveled “jointly and separately” to countries such as Turkiye and Kazakhstan to pressure authorities into preventing western dual-use products from reaching Russia.


Despite ongoing pressure from the west, Abu Dhabi has not enforced sanctions imposed on Russia, instead deepening cooperation with the Kremlin. Nonetheless, the Gulf nation has condemned the invasion of Ukraine at the UN several times, and an Emirati official told the WSJ that the country enforces UN-imposed sanctions on Russia.


The official added the Gulf state is monitoring the export of dual-use products and is committed to protecting “the integrity of the global financial system.”


In response to the position taken by the UAE, US officials publicly labeled the UAE "a country of focus" earlier this year as they look to clamp down on Russia's ties with independent nations.


Dubai, in particular, has reaped the benefits of the Emirati government's neutrality, as Russian nationals have become the largest buying group of real estate in the luxurious Emirate, which has also become a hub for Russian oil traders.


The new pressure campaign from the west comes less than two weeks after the UAE was officially invited to join the Russian and Chinese-led BRICS+ group of nations. The expanded bloc also pledged to help Africa develop its local economy through investments by member states who have the cash and loans from the New Development Bank (BRICS bank). UAE, a country with cash that need to be invested, is taking advantage of this new opportunity.


The UAE pledged $4.5 billion in clean energy investments for the African continent on 5 September during the second day of the three-day African Climate Summit held in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi.


“We will deploy $4.5 billion … to jumpstart a pipeline of bankable clean energy projects in this very important continent,” Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, the head of state-owned renewable energy firm Masdar and the Emirati national oil company ADNOC, told attendees on Tuesday.


“If Africa loses, we all lose,” warned Jaber, adding that the investment aims “to develop 15 GW (gigawatts) of clean power by 2030” and “catalyze at least an additional $12.5 billion from multilateral, public and private sources.”


Jaber, who is also president of the upcoming COP28 climate summit to be hosted by the UAE, said a consortium including Masdar would help achieve the clean power goals and stressed that a “surgical intervention of the global financial architecture that was built for a different era” is needed, urging institutions to lower debt burdens.


According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA), Africa’s renewable generation capacity was 56 GW in 2022. Despite possessing an abundance of natural resources, just 3 percent of energy investments worldwide are made in Africa.


The three-day climate summit in Nairobi has attracted heads of state, government, and industry, including UN head Antonio Guterres, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, and US climate envoy John Kerry.


“Renewable energy could be the African miracle, but we must make it happen,” Guterres told the summit on Monday. He also addressed the member states of the G20 to “assume your responsibilities” in the battle to combat climate catastrophe.


Kenyan President William Ruto said trillions of dollars in “green investment opportunities” would be needed as the climate crisis accelerates.


“Africa holds the key to accelerating decarbonization of the global economy. We are not just a continent rich in resources. We are a powerhouse of untapped potential, eager to engage and fairly compete in the global markets,” Ruto said.


Abu Dhabi sealed a deal with Egypt in June to build Africa's largest wind farm as the nation looks to rapidly expand the use of clean energy abroad and at home, where it operates three nuclear power reactors. The UAE also has three of the world's largest and lowest-cost solar plants. 


This focus on clean energy is part of the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 Strategic Initiative.


The development of renewable energy sources has recently become a priority for Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, which plans to source 50 percent of its energy requirements from renewables by 2030.



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Thursday, August 24, 2023

Qatar in talks with Algeria to invest in petrochemical projects in the North African Country

    Thursday, August 24, 2023   No comments

According to an Elkhabar Daily report published on 18 August, Qatar is currently in talks with the Algerian government to construct a chemical power plant for Algiers in a bid to kick-start a potential partnership with state-run petroleum corporation Sonatrach.


Qatari news agency Doha News disclosed that Algerian Minister of Energy and Mines, Mohamed Arkab, met with the Qatari ambassador Abdul Aziz Ali Al-Nama in Algiers on 17 August to discuss the construction project details.


Arkab revealed to Elkhabar Daily that "Sonatrach is ready to work with Power International to achieve that project, which is part of Algeria's strategy to develop the industrial sector."


This recent development comes after Algeria implemented reformed hydrocarbon regulations designed to entice investors, improve processing mechanisms, and establish a longitudinal vision for the North African country that will boost the national economy and increase employment.


The report further disclosed that the next meeting between Qatar and Sonatrach will be organized in September. In addition, Qatar's ambassador to Algiers emphasized that numerous Doha-based companies are highly interested in investing in integral projects in Algeria, specifically in the sectors of exploration, manufacturing, research, and the petrochemical industry.


Sonatrach generates nearly $2 billion in sales annually and employs around 3,000 people. Sonatrach's petrochemical programs have also led several petrochemical construction projects, as well as consolidating partnerships with Turkiye, TotalEnergies, and a UK-Chinese consortium.


Since 2022, Qatar has sought to bolster relations with countries residing outside of the West Asian region in an attempt to diversify its economy and to alleviate the impact of the global energy crisis instigated by the imposition of western sanctions against Russia.


Last week, Qatar began its construction of 500,000 residential units in the northwestern Nigerian state of Kaduna as part of its Mega Economic City project.


Furthermore, Qatar and India reached the final stages of their Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) agreement earlier this month, which would see Doha providing New Delhi with 1 million metric tonnes of LNG per year.

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Sunday, July 23, 2023

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune: Algeria had submitted an official request to join the BRICS group

    Sunday, July 23, 2023   No comments

On Friday, the Algerian “An-Nahar” TV quoted the Algerian President, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, as saying that Algeria has submitted an official request to join the “BRICS” group, and that it will become a shareholder in the “BRICS” bank, with an amount of $ 1.5 billion.


Tebboune said, "Algeria has officially asked the president of the BRICS bank, Dilma Rousseff, to agree to be a shareholder in the bloc's bank," noting that "Algeria's first contribution will be $1.5 billion."


Earlier, Tebboune considered that his country's accession to the "BRICS" group would help it in development, more than the assistance of international financial bodies, adding that "the BRICS bank contains $100 billion, more than the World Bank."


Likewise, Tebboune said, on December 22, 2022, that "Algeria is close to joining the BRICS bloc," stressing that the BRICS countries will not mind granting Algeria full membership, and that they have approval from Russia.


The North African country, which is rich in oil and gas, seeks to diversify its economy and strengthen its partnership with countries such as China. Tebboune announced, during his visit to Beijing, that China will invest $36 billion in various fields in his country, including industry, modern technology, the knowledge economy, transportation, and agriculture.


In turn, a South African diplomat said, yesterday, Thursday, that 22 countries have submitted an official request to become members of the "BRICS" economic bloc, adding that countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iran, have officially requested to become members of the "BRICS" group, while the countries that have expressed interest in joining include Argentina, the Emirates, Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain and Indonesia.


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